Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

I expect there's some significant percentage of the Russian nuclear arsenal that would fail to launch, fly, and deploy effectively, but it's a lot easier for them to hit China than it is to reach across the Arctic to try to hit the mainland USA.

And last I checked the Chinese don't have tech capable of intercepting ICBMs.

If Russia wants to launch against the US, it's all-or-nothing, everything goes and hope to survive and see what gets through.

If Russia launches against China, the Chinese arsenal is a lot smaller, they're close enough the Russians can try to take out their launchers more effectively, and frankly it'd only take a few dozen actual hits to take out Beijing and a some key industrial and port cities.

It'd be a shit-show, but it'd still be one that'd end the CCP as a contender on the world stage, and kill significant chunks of their upper leadership. In the end, Xi and the rest of them would need to ask themselves 'do I think Putin will push the button?'

I think they'd treat that as a lot more likely than the US pushing the button over an attack on Taiwan.


Now, if Russia collapses into civil war, or just temporary political chaos where it isn't clear who's on top for a few weeks, much less if anyone has the keys to the big red button?

That's a very different scenario.
Nuclear warlordism/nuclear kingship is a possibility we have to consider in the post-Russian space.

Nobility by right of inheriting nuclear codes or infrastructure is far from the least probable outcome.

Same with the CCP to a degree.

Key-turners become king-makers or kings themselves, after central leadership breaks down, has a pretty decent historical backing. Think what happened to Alexander's empire after his death.
 
In Chinas case the world "partial" is doing a ton of work, but I'm gonna need some background on why Iran is there unless "partial" is also doing a lot of work. In Hungarys case they actually owned that territory in 1914, albeit via the dual monarchy.

The fact your asking these pertinent questions shows your thinking like a midget minded Magyar.

Anyways the chart says partial rule which sounds like an epic excuse to make a ridiculously appropriate map. Whether they justified it through Portuguese Macau or the British Empire etc, who really knows lol.

I guess this is off topic. Sad.
 
I expect there's some significant percentage of the Russian nuclear arsenal that would fail to launch, fly, and deploy effectively, but it's a lot easier for them to hit China than it is to reach across the Arctic to try to hit the mainland USA.

And last I checked the Chinese don't have tech capable of intercepting ICBMs.

If Russia wants to launch against the US, it's all-or-nothing, everything goes and hope to survive and see what gets through.

If Russia launches against China, the Chinese arsenal is a lot smaller, they're close enough the Russians can try to take out their launchers more effectively, and frankly it'd only take a few dozen actual hits to take out Beijing and a some key industrial and port cities.

It'd be a shit-show, but it'd still be one that'd end the CCP as a contender on the world stage, and kill significant chunks of their upper leadership. In the end, Xi and the rest of them would need to ask themselves 'do I think Putin will push the button?'

I think they'd treat that as a lot more likely than the US pushing the button over an attack on Taiwan.


Now, if Russia collapses into civil war, or just temporary political chaos where it isn't clear who's on top for a few weeks, much less if anyone has the keys to the big red button?

That's a very different scenario.
True. Though in that case no one is getting off the mainland. To reach Sakhalin China would need to sail between Korea and Japan. Japan hasn't allowed a year to pass without mentioning the return of Kurile. There is no way in hell China can do so when they have problems even moving their navy out of Port. Their record of breaking down and limping to the nearest port is infamous.
 
In Chinas case the world "partial" is doing a ton of work, but I'm gonna need some background on why Iran is there unless "partial" is also doing a lot of work.
China people always most hardworking in the world!
Seriously - after some head scratching I figured it out - same as the shitholes across the gulf, Persia qualifies due to Portuguese coastal holdings.

So yes, "partially" is doing double overtime on that map.
 
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In Chinas case the world "partial" is doing a ton of work, but I'm gonna need some background on why Iran is there unless "partial" is also doing a lot of work. In Hungarys case they actually owned that territory in 1914, albeit via the dual monarchy.
My guess it's the Portuguese - they owned a strip of land on Iran's coast - including Bandar Abbas, IIRC - in the later 1500s-early 1600s.

EDIT: Ninja'ed.
 
It could also be the Dutch as well. Hapsburg claimed them and the Dutch had a very expansive empire with holdings in India and China and in between.
 
Does not matter. If once Habsburg clay, then it goes into "partialy" list.
By that logic everything south of the Yangzi River to the Dai Viet borders belong to scattered tribes that fled the Han invasion and resettled throughout the Pacific. From Taiwan and the Philippines to as far east as the Samoan Islands.
 
And in the latest expression of appreciation for Polish support by Ukrainian populace and/or local authorities:

Bulldozing of a Polish war cemetrary in Brody, Ukraine - not covered by big Polish "news" outlets - what a surprise ...

Run translating software if you don't read a language so easy to even small children in Poland speak it :p
Meh. Go to their original source, they have quite a bit of interesting details skipped in the translated article. You have to be careful with kresy.pl, they aren't apolitical, they have quite a political line, they always had one, even long before the war in Ukraine.
 
Go to their original source, they have quite a bit of interesting details skipped in the translated article. You have to be careful with kresy.pl,
OK. The name does give off "turbolechia" vibes, I admit.

EDIT:
Following @Marduk 's advice I checked a bit - the Ukrainians bulldozed an overgrown part of the cemetary (spring cleaning?!?), but the military section - restored c.2010 - seems to be untouched. The kresy.pl are a bit of a "we shall be murdered in oiur beds!!!!1"* site, unlike the much better grounded kresy24.pl site (cue jokes about People's Front of Judea and Judean People's Front ...).

* my source could be biased ...
 
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OK. The name does give off "turbolechia" vibes, I admit.

Meh. Go to their original source, they have quite a bit of interesting details skipped in the translated article. You have to be careful with kresy.pl, they aren't apolitical, they have quite a political line, they always had one, even long before the war in Ukraine.

Not really. IIRC there was a Oxford study of Polish media marking them as one of top 5 of most un-biased outlets. It's just all the mainstream ones are so skewed that it twists the point of reference.

Kresy covers subjects that are very inconvenient for media and political mainstream. Wołyń massacre, persecution of Polish minority in Lithuania (and Ukraine to lesser degree) that our politicians pretend very hard doesn't happen. A few years back key there was a very interesting series about white slave trade accross the Black Sea from Pol-Lit Commonwealth and Danube delta to Turkish (well, Ottoman Porta back then) markets, incl. key role involvement of a certain unmentionable ethnic minority, the works...
 
You mean Jewish involvement in the Black Sea slave trade?
BTW - that predates the Crimean Khanate, Genoese Jews (I've no idea about Venetians) being very prominent in that sector.
 
Not really. IIRC there was a Oxford study of Polish media marking them as one of top 5 of most un-biased outlets. It's just all the mainstream ones are so skewed that it twists the point of reference.
No, that is not what this Oxford study said. It said it's not publishing much disinformation.
Na drugim biegunie znalazły się strony uznane za najbardziej sprawdzone źródła informacji: wGospodarce.pl, Wyborcza.pl, Kresy.pl, Bankier.pl oraz Tvn24.pl.
Yeah, Wyborcza and TVN, supposedly some of the other super unbiased media outlets, according to that study.

Kresy covers subjects that are very inconvenient for media and political mainstream. Wołyń massacre, persecution of Polish minority in Lithuania (and Ukraine to lesser degree) that our politicians pretend very hard doesn't happen. A few years back key there was a very interesting series about white slave trade accross the Black Sea from Pol-Lit Commonwealth and Danube delta to Turkish (well, Ottoman Porta back then) markets, incl. key role involvement of a certain unmentionable ethnic minority, the works...
Which is a very curious set of interests to take...
It's perfectly possible to have an editorial policy with a very clear political line yet without publishing outright disinformation, through the magic of skillful selection of what to talk about and what to shut up about.
In their case, some people have noticed that they seem oddly precise in throwing spanners wherever Polish diplomacy is trying to make some major play to the south or east, with the usual scheme of reminding everyone about grievances old and new, big or small, whatever is available, with the implied conclusion that we should be permanently frowning at them and do nothing beyond that.
Naturally such things are inconvenient to our politicians, at least those trying such diplomatic moves, but on the other hand, lemme ask another question - is that beneficial for Polish national interest?
 
No, that is not what this Oxford study said. It said it's not publishing much disinformation.

Yeah, Wyborcza and TVN, supposedly some of the other super unbiased media outlets, according to that study.

Close enough. ;)

Which is a very curious set of interests to take...
It's perfectly possible to have an editorial policy with a very clear political line yet without publishing outright disinformation, through the magic of skillful selection of what to talk about and what to shut up about.
In their case, some people have noticed that they seem oddly precise in throwing spanners wherever Polish diplomacy is trying to make some major play to the south or east, with the usual scheme of reminding everyone about grievances old and new, big or small, whatever is available, with the implied conclusion that we should be permanently frowning at them and do nothing beyond that.
Naturally such things are inconvenient to our politicians, at least those trying such diplomatic moves, but on the other hand, lemme ask another question - is that beneficial for Polish national interest?

LOL, nope.

First, Kresy is by no means influential enough to have any degree of actual impact, foreign or domestic, that would be needed to "spoil" any diplomatic initiative in a notable way. "Oh noes, this here minor news portal spoke badly of this, we have to retract and drop the issue. If only they gave us good publicity... But they did not, so we must quit. So sad..."
Diplomatic initiatives don't work like that, and Kresy are too miniscule. Michnik and Wyborcza had that kind of pull at the peak of their power in 1990's, where all our politicians quaked in their boots out of fear of bad editorial. But not Kresy.
What they do have is a voice going against the echo chamber that our political "class" prefers a lot. But our politicians do not care about social opinion outside of elections anyway.

Second, Polish "diplomacy" doesn't make "plays". Polish "diplomacy" is disgustingly servile, consistenly fails to stand up to protect vital interests of our minorities in "former" (Pol-Lit Commonwealth) areas, gladly sacrificing them on the mass delusion altar of "Saint Giedroyć". Our eastern policy is an unholy mess of messianism, prometeism and naivity that "it's never the correcttime" to stand up for, and make demands to protect Poles living there because "current reasons". And there's always an excuse, usually a six letter one that starts with an "R" and ends with an "a". Ukrainians spit in our diplomat's faces and our (?) guys cheer at how nicely it's raining.

Third, a lot of our political "class" genuinely does seem to believe that diplomacy is not about actual interests but about being liked. That diplomacy is actually a form of social life so that the key objective of it is to be liked and patted on the back and never raise any issues that might result in discomfort. And God forbid to actually stand up for our national interests abroad where others would need to accomodate us. It's always us bending over for others, never in return.
Of course, this is a consequence of how political careers are made here, by political clientelism and being good little yes-men of those higher up, so that servile attitude is "carried over" from national politics into international ones.

We hepled Ukraine so much, and we still can't get them to agree to exhumations of victims of Wołyń genocide, while Germans had no problems excavating corpses of their troops from WW2 for example at the same time. Ukraine just recently blocked humanitarian aid for Poles living in Ukraine to help them pass the winter. Just some examples. And the only consistent reaction "our diplomacy" does is to decry anyone who dares mention it as "Russian puppet". :mad:
 
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Close enough. ;)



LOL, nope.

First, Kresy is by no means influential enough to have any degree of actual impact, foreign or domestic, that would be needed to "spoil" any diplomatic initiative in a notable way. "Oh noes, this here minor news portal spoke badly of this, we have to retract and drop the issue. If only they gave us good publicity... But they did not, so we must quit. So sad..."
Diplomatic initiatives don't work like that, and Kresy are too miniscule. Michnik and Wyborcza had that kind of pull at the peak of their power in 1990's, where all out politicians quaked in their boots out of fear of bad editorial. But not Kresy.
What they do have is a voice going against the echo chamber that our political "class" prefers a lot. But our politicians do not care about social opinion outside of elections anyway.
Of course they don't have such influence singularly. But that in no way means that small media are naturally unable and uninterested in such things. One site read by a million, or 100 sites read by 10,000 each, same effect.
Second, Polish "diplomacy" doesn't make "plays". Polish "diplomacy" is disgustingly servile, consistenly fails to stand up to protect vital interests of our minorities in "former" (Pol-Lit Commonwealth) areas, gladly sacrificing them on the mass delusion altar of "Saint Giedroyć". Our eastern policy is an unholy mess of messianism, prometeism and naivity that "it's never the correcttime" to stand up for, and make demands to protect Poles living there because "current reasons". And there's always an excuse, usually a six letter one that starts with an "R" and ends with an "a". Ukrainians spit in our diplomat's faces and our (?) guys cheer at how nicely it's raining.
Are the people criticizing our eastern foreign policy helping to fix the mess, or just stirring it and trying to splash some on politicians they don't like?
There's a whole lot of theories and practices about how countries handle their minorities in others, depending on their size, politics involved and so on.
Our problem is that they are not big enough to throw their weight around and the countries involved aren't accustomed to worship minorities just for the hell of it like our western neighbors are. So effectively we can either ignore them, try to repatriate them, or let them be a permanent source of spats with the host nation that we are expected to come and fix by throwing a carrot or waving a stick at the host nation for no inherent benefit to ours - no one is going to reimburse us for the carrots and sticks spent on this, they pay taxes where they live (and many of those spats do come down to spending money)...
Third, a lot of our political "class" genuinely does seem to believe that diplomacy is not about actual interests but about being liked. That diplomacy is actually a form of social life so that the key objective of it is to be liked and patted on the back and never raise any issues that might result in discomfort. And God forbid to actually stand up for our national interests abroad where others would need to accomodate us. It's always us bending over for others, never in return.
Of course, this is a consequence of how political careers are made here, by political clientelism and being good little yes-men of those higher up, so that servile attitude is "carried over" from national politics into international ones.
Not just our political class, look at how many western politicians beg third world shithole leaders to stop migrants, help with terrorists or something, that's a widespread problem, not unique to us. Let's be realistic and not pretend that it's something easily fixed or that can't be replaced with just a different kind of bad.
We hepled Ukraine so much, and we still can't get them to agree to exhumations of victims of Wołyń genocide, while Germans had no problems excavating corpses of their troops from WW2 for example at the same time. Ukraine just recently blocked humanitarian aid for Poles living in Ukraine to help them pass the winter. Just some examples. And the only consistent reaction "our diplomacy" does is to decry anyone who dares mention it as "Russian puppet". :mad:
Let's not pretend that the political situation around German corpses is not different and discomforts directed differently.
I always remind people that politics are rarely binary. Just because one faction does dumb shit doesn't mean that the faction yelling at them don't want to do even dumber shit in a different direction.

For example, you talk about national interest, but these things aren't really, they are demands regarding symbol politics. It would make some grumpy people we have happier, but would it make the country richer? Safer? More important? No, it implies using our pull, calling favors and so on to get the other side to make our habitually grumpy people happier for an election cycle instead of doing anything else with that, that's not exactly national interest, that's internal political interest of the parties who want the grumpy people to vote for them. Slapfights over symbolic things are about the last thing of actual benefit to us.
How is it helpful, and what constructive solution do you have to this that would not end up being to the benefit of a certain country you mentioned?
 
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