Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

You seem to not get we can purge the commies at home and deal with Moscow and Beijing at the same time, it doesn't have to one or the other.
Nice backtrack. but you have repeatedly said that it is impossible to deal with the woke cult without FIRST taking out their "masters" / "roots", who you claim are china and russia.

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Also, let us say we hypothetically completely removes all woke cultists from every institutes.
At that point the EU, canadia, and australia are far bigger threats to it then russia and china. Because those countries are controlled by woke cultists, are even more hostile towards a non woke usa, and are far more dangerous and effective militarily, economically, and financially.
 
Nice backtrack. but you have repeatedly said that it is impossible to deal with the woke cult without FIRST taking out their "masters" / "roots", who you claim are china and russia.
I have said it is impossible to deal with the wokies completely, if we do not deal with Beijing and Moscow.

I didn't say we had to deal with them FIRST, while ignoring the wokies at home.
 
I have said it is impossible to deal with the wokies completely, if we do not deal with Beijing and Moscow.

I didn't say we had to deal with them FIRST, while ignoring the wokies at home.
That is a backtrack
We cannot defeat the wokies till we deal with their masters in Moscow and Beijing.
till = until = do A then afterwards do B.
We cannot defeat the woke in the west till we remove it's roots in Moscow and Beijing.

Anything else is just mitigating symptoms, not dealing with the source of the rot.
> removing the 90% of bankers, judges, politicians, media, corporations, police, teachers, ruling class, etc who are members from the woke cult from power is just "treating the symptoms"
 
The Norskies are easily taken care of if we wanted too, qoth little south Korean casualties as possible.
Artillery is only useful of they get a chance to fire.
Let's put it that way
 
That is a backtrack

till = until = do A then afterwards do B.
No, that is you assuming that I meant we would not be fighting wokies at home at the same time.
> removing the 90% of bankers, judges, politicians, media, corporations, police, teachers, ruling class, etc who are members from the woke cult from power is just "treating the symptoms"
Yes, so long as the roots of those types of commies are still active in Beijing and Moscow, trying to remove every commies in the US/west will be a temporary fix at best.
 
Yeah, that looks like a bad argument to me too. Hence why I didn't make that argument. I'm not even arguing here for not supplying Ukraine. I'm arguing for a peace deal offer that's nearly a complete US victory (not Ukrainian victory, a US victory, tbc). Try again.
Your assertion about what would be the "complete US victory" and it being achievable (in any deals Russia gets a vote too, and even after a deal, it can be broken when convenient) is invalid.
A Ukrainian victory is nothing other than a truly complete US victory.

Your entire argument, meanwhile, gave no validity to Russia actually being a threat, just that we should support Ukraine as a message to China. But now you claim both are threats?
Russia is absolutely a threat in combination with China. Its current incompetence aside, the current opportunity to cripple Russia, if exploited enough, will make future planning against China easier, as the less capable and confident Russia is, the less it likely it is to be both willing and able to provide support to China in any China led crisis by providing support, or even some sort of "second front" distraction.
Look, what I'm offering is a near total US victory: Ukraine in NATO, Finland in NATO, Russia with nowhere left to expand to in Europe. It's just enough for Russia that Putin can play to his people in Russia that they won, but that's the end of Russia as something that matters. A mini-end of history for Russia in Europe. They have nothing else they can do. They've burned all of their soft power they spend 30 years acquiring in Europe. They don't have any hard power. They have nowhere to attack that isn't NATO. What do they matter now?
Yes, your mini-end of history is as ridiculous as the original one. No, if Russia is given a minor victory in Ukraine, this will absolutely not be the end of the matter, on the contrary, this will encourage Russia to keep trying, by hook or by crook.
Secondly, the legal and political fallout of Russia holding internationally recognized territories of Ukraine will be massive, possibly blocking NATO and EU membership from Ukraine. Ukraine will need as large time window as possible in form of Russia being too crippled to try something more in order to succeed in joining at least one of these before Russia restarts the war to prevent it.
Let's also not fall into geographical technicalities either, they will keep doing stupid shit with Ukraine, especially before it joins NATO (doing it instantly is pure fantasy, look at the complications with stupid Sweden), and all sorts of hybrid/cloak and dagger shit on NATO border to be done.
There are also the matters of Serbia, Moldova, and several other governments, some even in EU, where Russia is doing political influence ops with some success.
And then there are several potential crisis points near Europe like Georgia, Syria, and Russian influences in Libya and several other countries in the Mediterranean region.
It's not that they have "nothing else they can do", it's that you lack the imagination and ambition they have for figuring out things they could do.

You are just stubbornly trying to make politically convenient assumption about Russian leadership and refusing to look at a time horizon beyond your idealized peace deal, which does make it great, because in extremely short timeframe it's impossible to see any failures or downsides of it.
 
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Your assertion about what would be the "complete US victory" and it being achievable (in any deals Russia gets a vote too) is invalid.
A Ukrainian victory is nothing other than a truly complete US victory.
It's achievable, in that Putin gets something to save face. Would Putin definitely go for it? With a long enough stalemate, yes. Because that's all that will happen at this rate, more stalemate.

And while a Ukraine victory is a US victory, it's not the only complete US victory. The US just wants Russia without the ability to expand in Europe's direction.
Russia is absolutely a threat in combination with China. Its current incompetence aside, the current opportunity to cripple Russia, if exploited enough, will make future planning against China easier, as the less capable and confident Russia is, the less it likely it is to be both willing and able to provide support to China in any China led crisis by providing support, or even some sort of "second front" distraction.
Russia is already crippled, and my plan shackles the cripple. It already had no economy, and it's demonstrated it has no first rate military. It blew up all of its soft power in Europe as well. With my plan, it has nowhere to expand to.

The only reason Russia is a threat in combination with China is that a 5 year old boy is a threat in combination with China. Russia adds nothing to the equation, outside of the threat on Ukraine (which again, my plan deals with).

Yes, your mini-end of history is as ridiculous as the original one. No, if Russia is given a minor victory in Ukraine, this will absolutely not be the end of the matter, on the contrary, this will encourage Russia to keep trying, by hook or by crook.
Yes. Because Russia will definitely invade a NATO country with it's military. No, it won't. That's embarrassingly bad take. And if it does, then the US will directly intervene because article 5 and it'll be Desert Storm 2.0.

Secondly, the legal and political fallout of Russia holding internationally recognized territories of Ukraine will be massive, possibly blocking NATO and EU membership from Ukraine.
Wow, this would be a major hole in my plan. Really good point. It's really obvious too, I'd have to be blind to have not addressed this earlier:
So why give him anything? Because the only way adding Ukraine to NATO is feasible is if they aren't at war with Russia, and there isn't disputed territory. So it's not appeasing Putin, it's shoving a pyrrhic victory down his throat.
Ooh, apparently I'm not the one needing an eye appointment. Try again Marduk. Maybe put on your reading glasses?

The whole point of a peace treaty would be to set up no-disputed territory, so that NATO acceptance would work. It'd also require that NATO all set up to accept Ukraine ahead of time as well, but that is doable, just difficult.
 
What you tow don't seem to get is that removing commies and socialist from US institutions is only a temporary win, unless the next step it to deal with Moscow and Beijing, or that is done at the same time as the US based commies.

Because we cannot keep the rot from creeping back in, if Moscow and Beijing are in a position to aid the commies and socialist in the west even after we remove the current crop.
What you just said was mindbendingly stupid. Russia might occasionally give money to commies to destabilize us just like how we would give money to Islamists to destabilize Iran. But they won’t create any more new commies, Moscow is no longer communist so they aren’t the masters of US commies. China might be. But honestly the democrats liberal talking point of Russia being behind Trump and MAGA is more realistic than modern Russia creating new commies.
 
The Norskies are easily taken care of if we wanted too, qoth little south Korean casualties as possible.
Artillery is only useful of they get a chance to fire.
Let's put it that way
…I’m not really willing to gamble with Seoul, and all the lives therein, on the off chance the North Koreans are bluffing or on the assumption that we can knock out their artillery before they can do substantial damage.

Say what you will about the Russians, the North Koreans are exactly crazy enough to set a nuke off in one of the largest cities on earth out of spite.
 
It's achievable, in that Putin gets something to save face. Would Putin definitely go for it? With a long enough stalemate, yes. Because that's all that will happen at this rate, more stalemate.
Putin is not Chinese.
He will go for a "peace treaty" of the same sort he was lobbying for in the first few months. Namely, one that keeps options open for further return of own influence to Ukraine, on tanks or in briefcases, or preferably brings those options in as part of the deal.
"Saving face" is a secondary concern for him at most.

And while a Ukraine victory is a US victory, it's not the only complete US victory. The US just wants Russia without the ability to expand in Europe's direction.
No, US wants Russia to stop being a Damocles sword of doing own funny business the moment China goes for their own funny business to split US-NATO attention and resources when needed the most. The longer the war lasts and the more crippled Russia gets, the more of the sword rusts away.
Russia is already crippled, and my plan shackles the cripple. It already had no economy, and it's demonstrated it has no first rate military. It blew up all of its soft power in Europe as well. With my plan, it has nowhere to expand to.

The only reason Russia is a threat in combination with China is that a 5 year old boy is a threat in combination with China. Russia adds nothing to the equation, outside of the threat on Ukraine (which again, my plan deals with).
Again, insisting that Russia can no longer do any funny business in Ukraine or elsewhere in the region is just your baseless assertion. The FSB leadership has much more imagination than that. Just because you don't see how, doesn't mean they are so limited too.
Yes. Because Russia will definitely invade a NATO country with it's military. No, it won't. That's embarrassingly bad take. And if it does, then the US will directly intervene because article 5 and it'll be Desert Storm 2.0.
That's part of the problem. To keep this threat of intervention credible, USA has to keep considerable forces ready and prepared, set aside for this intervention. That's virtual attrition as far as China is concerned.
Let Russian military suffer enough attrition, and the size of appropriate intervention force and supply stockpile also shrinks, allowing shifting of some resources to China front.
Secondly, getting Ukraine into NATO will be a multi year affair. A lot can happen in, say, 4-8years.

Wow, this would be a major hole in my plan. Really good point. It's really obvious too, I'd have to be blind to have not addressed this earlier:

Ooh, apparently I'm not the one needing an eye appointment. Try again Marduk. Maybe put on your reading glasses?

The whole point of a peace treaty would be to set up no-disputed territory, so that NATO acceptance would work. It'd also require that NATO all set up to accept Ukraine ahead of time as well, but that is doable, just difficult.
You do realize that countries that are not in NATO would also need to recognize these territorial changes for them to not be used as an excuse to block NATO membership, and by UN/international law that would be a huge mess?
And then comes the problem that if Ukraine formally cedes land to get a shot at this plan, politically a very risky move, how does this stop Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria or one of the other more dissident NATO countries from blocking their membership for years?
See: Sweden with its spat with Turkey and Hungary being flippant too. The latter already has some major, openly stated demands for Ukraine meant to be a similar issue for years.
I think "difficult" barely scratches the issue of how both NATO and Ukrainian side would need to get through fairly massive political challenges to make it even remotely possible.
Once you do, continuing the war until at least some of these question answer themselves first and make the planning simpler is the easier option.
What you just said was mindbendingly stupid. Russia might occasionally give money to commies to destabilize us just like how we would give money to Islamists to destabilize Iran. But they won’t create any more new commies, Moscow is no longer communist so they aren’t the masters of US commies. China might be. But honestly the democrats liberal talking point of Russia being behind Trump and MAGA is more realistic than modern Russia creating new commies.
Russia is absolutely not beyond supporting destabilizing movements it wouldn't want in own turf - see their covert support of green moonbats all over the West.
 
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Putin is not Chinese.
He will go for a "peace treaty" of the same sort he was lobbying for in the first few months. Namely, one that keeps options open for further return of own influence to Ukraine, on tanks or in briefcases, or preferably brings those options in as part of the deal.
"Saving face" is a secondary concern for him at most.
It's an important concern though. And it's the only way the war ends. Ukraine isn't going to lose or win. The stalemate's been going for months with no progress. There's no reason to continue the war.

No, US wants Russia to stop being a Damocles sword of doing own funny business the moment China goes for their own funny business to split US-NATO attention and resources when needed the most. The longer the war lasts and the more crippled Russia gets, the more of the sword rusts away.
... It would be once Ukraine would be in NATO.

Though I will thank you for admitting that you are happy to kill Ukrainians to kill Russians, you just want more people dead. These are real people who are really dying. Families without sons or fathers. War is shit. Wanting it to end as swiftly as possible is basic humanity. You balance this against that Russia will continue the war in a part 2 if nothing changes, hence the NATO stuff.

Again, insisting that Russia can no longer do any funny business in Ukraine or elsewhere in the region is just your baseless assertion. The FSB leadership has much more imagination than that. Just because you don't see how, doesn't mean they are so limited too.
Baseless? I've clearly pointed out that Russia used up all of it's soft power. It no longer has the Nordstream pipeline. It doesn't have any neighboring countries that are non-NATO other than Belarus, which is also ringed by NATO. Ukraine would be the final nail in the coffin, because being ringed by NATO countries means Russia can't do anything.

Maybe don't throw around words you don't know the meaning of.

You do realize that countries that are not in NATO would also need to recognize these territorial changes for them to not be used as an excuse to block NATO membership, and by UN/international law that would be a huge mess?
No, they wouldn't. Only Russia and Ukraine and NATO would need to have mutual understanding re:Russia's Borders.

Once you do, continuing the war until at least some of these question answer themselves first and make the planning simpler is the easier option.
Wow, it's almost like that's the logical conclusion of how to approach this.
It'd also require that NATO all set up to accept Ukraine ahead of time as well
Funny I didn't think of it.
 
It's an important concern though. And it's the only way the war ends. Ukraine isn't going to lose or win. The stalemate's been going for months with no progress. There's no reason to continue the war.
Turns out it's hard to push through minefields very fast, unless you are willing to take lots of causalities in the process.

What Ukraine is doing is trying to save manpower and equipment by only biting off small bits of land at a time and then reinforcing them. Ukraine is not the US, they do not have the combined arms experience or equipment that the US has that lets us do shit like this 'fast'.

This is not the Western front of WW1, the lines are moving, and not in the direct Russia would like. The deep strikes on Russian assets are also have a direct effect on the Russian logistics network and Ukraine is winning the counterbattery battle so it is killing Russian arty faster than Russians can get the UA arty.

You might know this if you bothered to drop by the War Rooms threads more than once in a blue moon.
... It would be once Ukraine would be in NATO.

Though I will thank you for admitting that you are happy to kill Ukrainians to kill Russians, you just want more people dead. These are real people who are really dying. Families without sons or fathers. War is shit. Wanting it to end as swiftly as possible is basic humanity. You balance this against that Russia will continue the war in a part 2 if nothing changes, hence the NATO stuff.
The people in Ukraine have been getting killed by Moscow's whims since the Holomodor and earlier.

What is happening now is they actually have the ability to fight back and the international support to keep them going.

The reason the Maidan happened is because the Ukrainian populace got tired of being under Russian puppet control, and this invasion is happening because of Putin's dreams of recreating Imperial Russia.

You want 'peace at any price', and do not really understand how Russians are viewing this war the leadership or the populace.
Baseless? I've clearly pointed out that Russia used up all of it's soft power. It no longer has the Nordstream pipeline. It doesn't have any neighboring countries that are non-NATO other than Belarus, which is also ringed by NATO. Ukraine would be the final nail in the coffin, because being ringed by NATO countries means Russia can't do anything.

Maybe don't throw around words you don't know the meaning of.
Intel agencies like the FSB and the Russian human intel networks are a thing that causes damage, you know.

To Russians, using spies to sabotage and sow discord in the West, instead of using tanks, is 'soft power'.
No, they wouldn't. Only Russia and Ukraine and NATO would need to have mutual understanding re:Russia's Borders.
That is not how international relations work, you fool.

If people outside NATO do not want to recognize any concessions forced on Ukraine by people like you, you cannot make them accept it.
Wow, it's almost like that's the logical conclusion of how to approach this.

Funny I didn't think of it.
You thought of a unicorn scenario based on bad understanding of the actual situation on the ground, the realities of getting 'everything set up beforehand', and that Russia would not accept any part of Ukraine in NATO, even with land concessions forced on Ukraine.

It'd be better if AnCaps like you didn't stick their noses in foreign policy, you suck at it and are effectively doing Russia's work for them by being naive enough to think they'd actually accept or honor the deal you put forth.
 
Russia is absolutely not beyond supporting destabilizing movements it wouldn't want in own turf - see their covert support of green moonbats all over the West.
Read what I actually said. Russia will support those rebel movements, but they won't create them out of thin air like Bacle is saying. When you create your own rebel movements you make ones that are friendly to you. China might make commies to create them since they on paper believe the same thing, Russia if it is going to be creating rebels whole cloth they would make something similar to Trump.

So Bacle's statement that as long as Moscow exists we can't stop the commies because Moscow is the secret puppet master of commies is stupid.
 
It's an important concern though. And it's the only way the war ends. Ukraine isn't going to lose or win. The stalemate's been going for months with no progress. There's no reason to continue the war.
So what? Few months of stalemate, in this scale of war, do not mean much.
Iran-Iraq war lasted for almost 8 years.
... It would be once Ukraine would be in NATO.

Though I will thank you for admitting that you are happy to kill Ukrainians to kill Russians, you just want more people dead. These are real people who are really dying. Families without sons or fathers. War is shit. Wanting it to end as swiftly as possible is basic humanity. You balance this against that Russia will continue the war in a part 2 if nothing changes, hence the NATO stuff.
According to pooling Ukrainians themselves are more often sharing my view than your attempt to "protect" them. Sorry, but this sort of anti-war sentiment is not popular in this corner of the world. There are worse things than war. One of such things, as Ukrainians are being constantly reminded, is being occupied by Russia. They aren't a progressive western country, they care about their compatriots. Your "basic humanity" to them sounds like leaving their cousins, friends and acquaintances to the highly lacking mercy of an authoritarian state who has recently revealed its cards saying that their nation should not exist, or if they are lucky, leave their hometowns, businesses and ancestral houses behind.
It's like asking Taiwan to surrender to China from their perspective.

A lot of this support is new, and ironically, created by Russia's... unscrupulous way of waging the war and political climate around it, artificially increasing the perceived cost of all concessions and souring the relation in general. It may well be that by the end of this war, Russian-Ukrainian relations will be at meme Balkan level, if they aren't there already.
Baseless? I've clearly pointed out that Russia used up all of it's soft power. It no longer has the Nordstream pipeline. It doesn't have any neighboring countries that are non-NATO other than Belarus, which is also ringed by NATO. Ukraine would be the final nail in the coffin, because being ringed by NATO countries means Russia can't do anything.

Maybe don't throw around words you don't know the meaning of.
Again, just because you don't know things doesn't mean they don't exist.
Russia has some of soft power of its most favorite kind left, corruption and behind the scenes deals. This is why some countries in EU still import their energy, and why NATO membership of Sweden is still in limbo.

And again, Moldova, Georgia, Serbia and rest of Balkans, and all the MENA places that mess with Europe with migration and energy stuff.
No, they wouldn't. Only Russia and Ukraine and NATO would need to have mutual understanding re:Russia's Borders.
NATO is not a hivemind, and few members would cause issues. Again, see the point in case, Sweden.
Funny I didn't think of it.
So you are asking the impossible, both politically and legally, and merely call it difficult.
Meanwhile it took over a year since the beginning of the war to have Finland join, and that's easy and ordinary procedure compared to the kind of strange maneuvers your plan requires for Ukraine.
Read what I actually said. Russia will support those rebel movements, but they won't create them out of thin air like Bacle is saying. When you create your own rebel movements you make ones that are friendly to you. China might make commies to create them since they on paper believe the same thing, Russia if it is going to be creating rebels whole cloth they would make something similar to Trump.

So Bacle's statement that as long as Moscow exists we can't stop the commies because Moscow is the secret puppet master of commies is stupid.
That's opportunism, not limitation, bolstering already existing disruptors is easier. And the red kind of disruptors is spread around like vermin, so they count as that, and Moscow's spymasters have handling this particular kind mastered, why try to figure out a whole new thing to do something that they already have figured out how to do the old way, with leftist movements. See: Cuba, Venezuela, Kurds, even without being commies they still hold close relations with all the remaining commies.
 
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You either take your time clearing a minefield or you use excessive amounts of explosives in a short period over a narrow area.
Yep.

The problem is artillery launched mines can be reset fairly fast and from a distance, even fired behind advancing UA troops to cut their lines of withdrawal and supply, which has been a real pain.

Having to repeatedly clear the same area of mines slows things down a lot.
 
It's an important concern though. And it's the only way the war ends. Ukraine isn't going to lose or win. The stalemate's been going for months with no progress. There's no reason to continue the war.
This statement reveals that you have no credibility when it comes to the subject of war.

You have no competent read on military affairs; as such, you'd be best served by bowing out of discussions on Ukraine, since your judgement is not competent for you to form a meaningful opinion on the subject.
 



Even more bad news for Russian; Kazakhstan is pushing it's own language over Russian in it's media now.

When Kazakhstan is willing and able to snub their nose at Putin and Russia, you know Russia's international power even in the former USSR is waning badly.
 
…I’m not really willing to gamble with Seoul, and all the lives therein, on the off chance the North Koreans are bluffing or on the assumption that we can knock out their artillery before they can do substantial damage.

Say what you will about the Russians, the North Koreans are exactly crazy enough to set a nuke off in one of the largest cities on earth out of spite.
I can assure you.
The artillery to hit Seoul is not easy to hide
 

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