China really can not improve as long as the CCP is around. While it will be painful the country will prosper a lot more when the comunists are done away with.
peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
China really can not improve as long as the CCP is around. While it will be painful the country will prosper a lot more when the comunists are done away with.
More Peter Q&A:
-Taiwan situation hasn't changed for five years
-Can't predict what China will do
-China did the same blue collar to white collar shift, hasn't outsourced anything, has tons of youth who aren't suited for what jobs are available
-Did the add-on chapters for the audiobook of Accidental Superpower
Predictions he got wrong in 2023:
-Got Ukraine War stuff wrong
-Everybody's been getting it wrong
-Russian and Ukraine systems are fragile
-Things breaking will shift timetable for things to go away
-Taiwan situation hasn't changed for five years
-Can't predict what China will do
-China did the same blue collar to white collar shift, hasn't outsourced anything, has tons of youth who aren't suited for what jobs are available
-Did the add-on chapters for the audiobook of Accidental Superpower
Predictions he got wrong in 2023:
-Got Ukraine War stuff wrong
-Everybody's been getting it wrong
-Russian and Ukraine systems are fragile
-Things breaking will shift timetable for things to go away
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
Ironic that Zeihan did not think China will just turn to slavery for its work force.
They use it in some places already
They use it in some places already
The problem with that is that slaves have zero reason to work hard, their filled with resentment and they functionally have nothing to lose. Its going to make an already unstable system which is dealing with so many other issues even more unstable. Which increases the odds of a revolution that removes the CCP.
Also slaves are by their nature? A natural 5th colum who will support anything that destroys the current establishment be it native or outside forces because their position really cant get any worse.
honestly what ever follows the destruction of the CCP is going to be better then what they have now.
The Russians are slapping flight kits onto their 1500 kilo drop bombs to turn them into glide bombs, accurate to within 5-50 meters, basically doing what we did in Desert Storm to make JDAMs, have 20-25 years worth of supply of bombs, Ukraine requires a functional air force to intercept bombers before they drop the bombs or the ability to hit the Russian logistics setting up the bombs, Russia wins wars with sheer weight of numbers, mixing mass with precision:
So far their rate of making these kits was very unimpressive, much like with JDAMs, the kit itself is far more expensive and complex to produce than the bomb, and even richest countries can't afford nearly as many as they have bombs.
Russians have used JDAM style bombs like that since some time, but with smaller bombs mostly and without slap-on kits made separately, though the greater momentum of a bigger bomb lets it get enough gliding range that countering it with SAMs becomes very hard.
Even the kit based 1500kg variant itself is few years old, referencing 2019 as the time of development being finished:
UPAB-1500B
Zeihan is however wrong in saying Ukraine need a lot of aircraft to counter that. No, it doesn't need to shoot down everything before it gets into bombing range, it just needs to be able to inflict a decent rate of attrition on the aircraft doing it. And over long campaigns even seemingly low attrition can be surprisingly brutal.
Even losing humble 2% of bombers in each sortie, means that there won't be much left of the units doing the bombing in a couple months of daily sorties, extrapolate to the timescale of this war and very slow production rate of modern tactical jets...
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So far their rate of making these kits was very unimpressive, much like with JDAMs, the kit itself is far more expensive and complex to produce than the bomb, and even richest countries can't afford nearly as many as they have bombs.
Russians have used JDAM style bombs like that since some time, but with smaller bombs mostly and without slap-on kits made separately, though the greater momentum of a bigger bomb lets it get enough gliding range that countering it with SAMs becomes very hard.
Even the kit based 1500kg variant itself is few years old, referencing 2019 as the time of development being finished:
UPAB-1500B
www.globalsecurity.org
Zeihan is however wrong in saying Ukraine need a lot of aircraft to counter that. No, it doesn't need to shoot down everything before it gets into bombing range, it just needs to be able to inflict a decent rate of attrition on the aircraft doing it. And over long campaigns even seemingly low attrition can be surprisingly brutal.
Even losing humble 2% of bombers in each sortie, means that there won't be much left of the units doing the bombing in a couple months of daily sorties, extrapolate to the timescale of this war and very slow production rate of modern tactical jets...
so in other words this is a chance to destroy russias air force.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
TL;DR, Biden made an offhanded commitment to build a floating dock off the shore of Gaza to facilitate humanitarian aid. Israel won't like this, and Hamas will use it as an opportunity to attack; but Zeihan thinks that's what Biden wants, with the ultimate goal of cutting ties with Israel in favor of Turkey.
Giving Syria to Turkey would be a better option to befriend Turkey
I don't know how he would think he can get on Erdogan's good side without more impactful concessions in Syria, and in the F-35 question. They barely hammered out a deal with Sweden NATO accession, F-16's, and the Kurd question also will always hang in the background.
The Biden Virtue Signalling Pier is more about appealing to US Muslim and lefty vote than Turkey.
Though there is a sub-question to how this will work that no one is asking:
WHERE exactly in Gaza will the pier be, and who controls that spot?
Seems like an important question for one no one talks about.
If Biden wants to fuck over the US military and Israel, he will place it in Hamas controlled territory, the US personnel operating it will probably get shot at, then it will be a huge mess, with dead US sailors, possibly also dead Hamas and of course claims of dead Palestinian civilians.
The mess may well come before the election, so it could be a retarded move in the end, but it's DNC we are talking about, so still possible.
If however he places it in Israel controlled part of the Gaza coast, and backroom deals are made that Israelis will *happen* to place a whole mechanized brigade and a missile defense unit right next to it, and they will do all the wrangling of locals necessary for orderly distribution of aid that prevents the US personnel from getting into any scuffles and provide truly paranoid levels of security screening for the whole area kilometers away, the chances of a shitshow drop significantly, though the Biden voters aren't supposed to notice that or the PR value of the operation will drop.
An independent Kurd state would have to be part of any deal, unless we are going to allow Erdogan to wipe them out.
I guess maybe we mix Kurdistan into Lebanon and clean out Hezbollah in the process?
Gives the Kurds sea access, and helps unfuck Lebanon for a while at least while giving the new Lebanese-Kurdish state petro deposits.
I don't think anyone in Lebanon wants Kurds with their commie bent. Especially with the potential of making them the arena for Hezbollah-PKK deathmatch.
Some there already, and they aren't exactly loved.
Jist say fuck it.
Let Turkey and Syria fight
it wont work and will just further piss off a lot of people as Peter says this wont work and will just create more anger.
Typhonis
Well-known member
Which might be the plan. Though how would the Dems and others benefit from it?
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
He’s a damn bloody fool if that is his goal.
Trading Israel, a half stable and well armed democracy, for Turkey, a dictatorship with Imperial ambition, is a terrible trade.
has Biden ever struck you as a wise man?
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Fair point. You’d think his handlers would be a touch more intelligent though.