peter Zeihan 2020

[bullethead]

Ukraine is hitting Russian naval assets from longer distances with drone swarms, got past Russian defenses to do so, the newer Russian patrol boats suck against drones, lost a 5th landing ship - down to 50% landing ship capacity, Russian supply lines getting pretty thin to Crimea,:

 

[PeaceMaker 03]

Turkey is not a dictatorship, more importantly it's the largest and best equipped military in the middle east and they are vital for containing Russia.

Turkey is also not any kind of representative democracy.

Remember the military coup that happened ? The one where all the coup leaders and Erdogons most vocal critics “forgot coup day” and did not show up for the coup, so just happened to be arrested in bed by the valiant “counter-coupers”( loyal supporters ofErdogon).

Nothing says democracy like arresting your political rivals. Or anyone to outspoken like the press.

Turkey has used the US for protection just like the rest of NATO.

Let’s not even talk about US troops killed because of Turkey in Iraq and Syria. Turkey actively supported people attacking US forces as long as they would be hostile to the Kurds. They sent Turkish military into Iraq with large amounts of guns, ammo, coms, and explosives.

We detained the same Turkish (loosely call an SF team) soldiers twice in one deployment. Once in N. Iraq and once N. Of Belaud.

 

[Cherico]

Ukraine is hitting Russian naval assets from longer distances with drone swarms, got past Russian defenses to do so, the newer Russian patrol boats suck against drones, lost a 5th landing ship - down to 50% landing ship capacity, Russian supply lines getting pretty thin to Crimea,:

Russia has always had issues fighting on the water, that said if Ukraine cuts off Crimea from all outside aid that place will starve to death and that might hurt russia enough to get them to scream uncle.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Russia has always had issues fighting on the water, that said if Ukraine cuts off Crimea from all outside aid that place will starve to death and that might hurt russia enough to get them to scream uncle.

The truth is, no one has an answer to naval drone swarms. And no, Crimea wont be cut off by naval drones lol.

 

[Marduk]

The truth is, no one has an answer to naval drone swarms. And no, Crimea wont be cut off by naval drones lol.

LMAO. Again you have no idea what you are talking about.
>Russians suck at defending ships from remote controlled speedboats and jet skis just like they suck at defending them from missiles, drones and bombs
Clueless people:
>Oh well no one has an answer to that.
Meanwhile in less corrupt navies:

List of Houthi attacks intercepted by western forces, including a USV.

Houthis deploy unmanned kamikaze boat amid Operation Prosperity Guardian

The Houthis deployed an unmanned surface vessel on a kamikaze mission into the Red Sea amid Operational Prosperity Guardian.

defensescoop.com

It was observed miles away from potential targets and mysteriously exploded.
Though i'm guessing the mysterious way of helping it explode didn't involve a dude firing a rifle or machinegun at it from free hand on a small floating vessel, in darkness, while not even having NVGs. Which btw is exactly how Russians were spotted defending from those drones.
This is what many western ships have added on specifically for USV/speedboat/drone defense:

Typhoon Weapon Station - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Fully stabilized, with night vision and rader, variants from 7.62 to 30mm autocannon exist, manual or remote operated turret, technically a lot like something you would find on top of a new IFV or APC.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

LMAO. Again you have no idea what you are talking about.
>Russians suck at defending ships from remote controlled speedboats and jet skis just like they suck at defending them from missiles, drones and bombs
Clueless people:
>Oh well no one has an answer to that.
Meanwhile in less corrupt navies:

List of Houthi attacks intercepted by western forces, including a USV.

Houthis deploy unmanned kamikaze boat amid Operation Prosperity Guardian

The Houthis deployed an unmanned surface vessel on a kamikaze mission into the Red Sea amid Operational Prosperity Guardian.

defensescoop.com

It was observed miles away from potential targets and mysteriously exploded.

The *overwhelming* majority are flying drones, which are much much easier to detect and interdict. Even the naval drones they are using are crude speedboats with explosives.

There is a big difference between those drones, and the stealthy much more sophisticated naval drones the Ukrainians are using with assistance of western surveillance and GPS technologies isnt there? Yes indeed. Even your own lad Anders Puck Nielson admits this

 

[Zachowon]

Eh, active radar and sonar would help

 

[Marduk]

The *overwhelming* majority are flying drones, which are much much easier to detect and interdict. Even the naval drones they are using are crude speedboats with explosives.

There is a big difference between those drones, and the stealthy much more sophisticated naval drones the Ukrainians are using with assistance of western surveillance and GPS technologies isnt there? Yes indeed. Even your own lad Anders Puck Nielson admits this

If you were into WW2 history, you would know that... less technologically advanced speedboats speedboats, unmanned and not so much, were used for attacking ships already.
Nothing new there, and there's a reason why it got shelved for a part of history until the cost (especially in risk to life of very skilled people) got lower and tech got better.
But so did defenses.
Also the Japanese had a particular way of getting rid of the communication/control part of the problem entirely, yet even that was not enough.
Italians also played with the concept, but a bit safer:

MT explosive motorboat - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There were few notable successes, lots of failures, but for some reason no one pressed the concept further.

Yes, radar alone, especially general purpose kind, would struggle with that.
However, specialized, short wave mounts, especially with IR and sensor fusion, will do far better.
Of course the lesson from WW2 is that crew readiness and awareness of the threat is key, while lack of it creates opportunities to exploit for the other side, and those are things Russians are particularly short on.

 

[Poe]

Turkey is also not any kind of representative democracy.

Nor did I say they were. They definitely have a republican form of government though and their head of state is elected democratically

Remember the military coup that happened ? The one where all the coup leaders and Erdogons most vocal critics “forgot coup day” and did not show up for the coup, so just happened to be arrested in bed by the valiant “counter-coupers”( loyal supporters ofErdogon).

I remember that Erdogan was elected to reign in a rogue military from which the term "deep state" was popularized in political spheres. Maybe you forgot about that?

Nothing says democracy like arresting your political rivals. Or anyone to outspoken like the press.

Again, fuck off with "democracy." it's an annoying, and often leftist, meme phrase that says nothing. They have a republican government with economic freedom, period. I also wouldn't use arresting political rivals as that's happening in the US as well.

Turkey has used the US for protection just like the rest of NATO.

Irrelevant.

Let’s not even talk about US troops killed because of Turkey in Iraq and Syria. Turkey actively supported people attacking US forces as long as they would be hostile to the Kurds. They sent Turkish military into Iraq with large amounts of guns, ammo, coms, and explosives.

Because the west has actively supported separatist groups that Turkey, and even the west at one point, deemed terrorist groups.

Look I don't even like Turkey, and shouldn't have to defend them, but they aren't a dictatorship and you are just regurgitating MIC talking points that are obviously biased.

 

[PeaceMaker 03]

Nor did I say they were. They definitely have a republican form of government though and their head of state is elected democratically

I remember that Erdogan was elected to reign in a rogue military from which the term "deep state" was popularized in political spheres. Maybe you forgot about that?

Again, fuck off with "democracy." it's an annoying, and often leftist, meme phrase that says nothing. They have a republican government with economic freedom, period. I also wouldn't use arresting political rivals as that's happening in the US as well.

Irrelevant.

Because the west has actively supported separatist groups that Turkey, and even the west at one point, deemed terrorist groups.

Look I don't even like Turkey, and shouldn't have to defend them, but they aren't a dictatorship and you are just regurgitating MIC talking points that are obviously biased.

Poe go play sex games with farm animals, tell me to fuck off. You have repeatedly shown your bias and if anyone disagrees you become hostile.

But to respond to your MIC ( WTF is that anyway?) Talking points my comments are from firsthand or second hand information.
But thanks for informing everyone who reads this if you are as fucked up as you want to be. I will stick around to see what new heights you can achieve.

As for the Turkish people love them owe my life to a Turk who became a good friend. As for the Turkish government, fuck them and they are not a republican government. Arresting all your political opponents is not even close to one.

Erdogan has fixed elections and is not above threatening families to get what he wants and keep people from being to vocal. Even against Turks who have left Turkey. Erdogan and Biden should get along famously.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

That Erdogan is a dictator is basically beyond doubt by this point.

 

[Poe]

Poe go play sex games with farm animals, tell me to fuck off.

You quoted me a week later

You have repeatedly shown your bias

What bias have I shown, please elaborate?

and if anyone disagrees you become hostile.

No I become hostile when people want to be passive aggressive instead of actually discussing things, I play tit for tat and those who are used to having their snide comments ignored can't handle it. Like right now, when faced with someone who doesn't just accept a long time member of NATO is a dictatorship you tell me to have sex with farm animals (a very strange remark, but okay.). If this conversation remained about Turkey and you left me out of it we'd have no issue, but you and so many others here (and on SB, and AH.com) just can't do it. You have to insult others.

But to respond to your MIC ( WTF is that anyway?) Talking points my comments are from firsthand or second hand information.
But thanks for informing everyone who reads this if you are as fucked up as you want to be. I will stick around to see what new heights you can achieve.

Military Industrial Complex, nicer than saying "globohomo."

Erdogan has fixed elections and is not above threatening families to get what he wants and keep people from being to vocal. Even against Turks who have left Turkey. Erdogan and Biden should get along famously.

The last election was so close he was predicted to lose, so no I don't believe he has fixed elections and its awful convenient anyone who pushed back against the latest talking points out of DC, or has even a slightly out of step foreign policy, is "backsliding democratically" and a dictator.

 

[Cherico]

The truth is, no one has an answer to naval drone swarms. And no, Crimea wont be cut off by naval drones lol.

Its not that its naval drones.

Russia is a land power, its how by geography they have to focus on land because they have a lot of land to protect and share land boarders with a whole bunch of magor powers, on top of this they have traditionally had the issue of having pretty crappy ports that either ice over a lot, are far from their center of power or can be cut off by other powers.

(the baltics and the black sea.)

Their navy has thus always been kind of shit for hundreds of years. During war time the russian navy either goes out to herocially die or hides in port for the duration. Its just not their speciality.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Their navy has thus always been kind of shit for hundreds of years. During war time the russian navy either goes out to herocially die or hides in port for the duration. Its just not their speciality.

Fun fact (if memory serves) the Russian Navy spent the 18th century getting beaten up by the Swedes. This is after the Great Northern War as well, by the way, where Sweden gave Russia a nasty kick in the pants in the 1780s.

 

[Cherico]

Fun fact (if memory serves) the Russian Navy spent the 18th century getting beaten up by the Swedes. This is after the Great Northern War as well, by the way, where Sweden gave Russia a nasty kick in the pants in the 1780s.

Its just not their speciality.

To be fair to russia naval combat is fucking hard, the countries that are actually good at it are pretty much america, the united kingdom, and Japan.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

and Japan.

Well if memory serves, the Russians initially didn’t think the Japanese were much good at naval warfare…they were a tad mistaken…

 

[Cherico]

Well if memory serves, the Russians initially didn’t think the Japanese were much good at naval warfare…they were a tad mistaken…

To be fair all around Japan as an Island country comes with a strong naval tradition for reasons of national survival, and they took the time after their opening to actually learn how to do naval combat right and the russian navy....was a fucking clown show.

I mean....holy shit you read up on that journey from western russia to the pacific and you wonder how those idiots survived long enough to get their asses kicked by japan.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

I mean....holy shit you read up on that journey from western russia to the pacific and you wonder how those idiots survived long enough to get their asses kicked by japan.

Ah yes, the ill fated adventures of the 2nd Pacific Squadron. My hat goes off to its poor Admiral who was the single competent person in the entire naval officer corps.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Its not that its naval drones.

Russia is a land power, its how by geography they have to focus on land because they have a lot of land to protect and share land boarders with a whole bunch of magor powers, on top of this they have traditionally had the issue of having pretty crappy ports that either ice over a lot, are far from their center of power or can be cut off by other powers.

(the baltics and the black sea.)

Their navy has thus always been kind of shit for hundreds of years. During war time the russian navy either goes out to herocially die or hides in port for the duration. Its just not their speciality.

yeah I know russia has never been a maritime power. But my point is that these naval drones really are a game changer. Even the simple crude things the houthis have are able to deny full control of the red sea to the mighty US navy. Imagine of they were spamming the sophisticated drones possessed by the Ukrainians, fully stealthed guided by GPS?

 

[Blasterbot]

You tend to see nations becoming a naval power out of necessity. it is way easier and cheaper to do land invasions.