Zeihan is ignoring the domestic political realities in the US.
If Trump is elected then the US position will become very solid support for Israel and fuck the Palestinians hard. The dock ends the next day and the whole political calculus of the ME changes.
If Biden tries to end the relationship with Israel and support the Palestinians before the election then he commits political suicide. "Joe Biden supports terrorists who killed more Jews in one day than anyone else since Hitler." would be a Trump attack ad. "Joe Biden abandons Israel to support terrorists." would be another. Then you have the Congressional realities. There is zero chance that the current Congress will authorize so much as a single dollar for helping Palestine or Hamas. And if Biden asks for money for Palestine then the Republicans will attack him for it.
Post election with a Biden win it depends on the makeup of Congress and whether or not Biden is willing to piss off the Pro-Terrorist faction of the Democrat party.
As for the broader ME realignment, that is going to happen but Turkey is in some respects more limited than Zeihan likes to talk about. The ME has four local powers that matter; Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel. Iran will never be able to cut any kind of deal with Saudi Arabia or Israel. None of the other 3 are really willing to let Turkey expand into the ME in a big way.
If the US pulls out then Israel and Saudi Arabia will become not just friendly but active partners and allies; especially after the King of SA dies and MBS takes the throne in his own right. Marry Israeli technical and military skills with Saudi money and oil and you have a very strong power bloc - and one that has nuclear weapons. Then you have the longer term; Saudi Arabia has basically limitless money and it is effectively all controlled by one person. Have Israel put a nuclear power plant in SA to power a desalinization plant and greenhouse a solid chunk of the SA desert and you can turn SA into a food producer of sufficient scale to keep Egypt (and a good chunk of the rest of the ME) fed. Economically that isn't really worth it but SA doesn't really care about economics.
If Israel and SA see the US abandoning them (much less supporting their enemies) then their entire calculus changes. It becomes a matter of existential issues for both of them. An Israel-SA alliance would have zero problems bringing along Egypt and Jordan and wouldn't care a whit about international opinion or US opinion. If Israel supports SA in Yemen and no one was caring about UN whining then they could pacify that patch of desert in relatively short order. Offer money and support to Ethiopia to takeover Somalia and (potentially) Sudan and that alliance would have full control over the Suez and Red Sea. Saudi oil would keep China on their side (for however long China is still relevant) and both Israel and SA are fairly good at manipulating domestic US politics so they could likely keep the US at least neutral with them.
---
What often ends up overlooked is that if/when the US pulls back the space of possibilities expands rather drastically. Saudi Arabia, with active Israeli support, decides to outright conquer and annex Yemen and gives zero fucks about "war crimes" or "crimes against humanity"? What happens? Will the US be willing to send in troops to actively fight SA and Israel in defense of Yemen? Will the US sanction SA when SA says that any country that obeys those US sanctions no longer gets any ME oil and Egypt says anyone who obeys them doesn't get to use the Suez canal? Will Europe support the US given they already lost Russian oil and gas?
On the other hand, if the US doesn't really do anything to attempt to stop SA/Israel then what does everyone else do?
