If that doesn't say how desperate Russia is, I don't know what will.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
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If that doesn't say how desperate Russia is, I don't know what will.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Yes, you do manufacture some nitrocellulose. Even europe manufactures some of it. But you are still heavily dependant on imports of nitrocellulose and guncotton. Things that cant be replaced easily. And where did you get most of it? China. And Russia.
https://www.thomasnet.com/suppliers/usa/nitrocellulose-53813002
They do build machine tools. Even you build some machines tools. But the tools to do things like boring artillery barrels? Thats very rare specialised and expensive and very few people build those things. these arent basic drill presses or lathes. They are the size of houses ffs. They take alot of time to build.
You can be the worlds largest aerospace manufacturer all you like, you still need the production lines to build something, especially when you have no slack capacity due to JIT industrial policies. I repeat..you have NO SLACK CAPACITY. Production lines have to be set up from scratch and that means expanding an entire chain of supply, a great deal of which is based in china.
For example:
Russia: death rate from alcohol use disorders | Statista
In 2019, nearly 14.6 deaths per 100 thousand individuals in Russia were caused by alcohol use disorders.
www.statista.com
Which GDP do you refer to? Nominal or Purchasing power parity?
Who has the artillery shortage? Who is outshooting who? Thats what matters
Well, if you cant build the tanks to put your optics into, guess who wins? But Russia doesnt seem to have an issue with getting optics into their tanks do they?
In case of any other state,i would agree.But ,we are taking about kgbstan ruled by kgb colonel.
They could use now old stuff,becouse they have hidden army of robot apemans in underground cities waiting for RIGHT HOUR.
And,i only half joking here.Those dudes do not care how many of their slaves die,so they could pull out sometching like that.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Because they also have production issues? But unlike us, they dont follow JIT production and logistics philosophies with thier MIC, so they keep slack capacity and maintain inventory stockpiles.
Still, a gun is a gun. And having an old gun is better than having no guns at all isnt it? Thats why Russia outshoots Ukraine.
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Depend how old,and depend how many of them would blown up thanks to old/korean ammo.
Sometimes better do not have guns,than something which do not work efficiently.
So what,that they destroyed forest and fields near ukrainian positions,if those positions are intact?
Hilarious, one oddball quotes another who thinks heavy towed mortars don't count as "towed artillery".
Sometimes a gun is a glorified suicide device for the crew of minimal military utility.
A shitty gun has the same crewing and logistical needs as a great one, if not more, and so it takes even more resources to keep in a fight for much less effect.
Number of shells fired is for people who think like EU bureaucrats, higher number = better, no thought given to the actual purpose.
But it's fucking childish, no one cares about who creates more WW1 style fields, by that logic WW1 armies outshoot all modern ones, but that in no way means they were stronger.
What matters is number of shells needed to neutralize a target. Sometimes it's close to one, sometimes several, in some scenarios its dozens or hundreds, if you are using crappy shells and weapons that's what it's gonna be.
That.If Moscov had 20 more schells then Ukraine,but need 20 more then Ukraine to destroy target,that they do not have advantage,but are wasting resources.
Congratulations. You just told EVERY Ukrainian citizen and soldier that they MUST resist Russian aggression to their death. Good job ensuring that your losses will now be even higher Russia.
Poe
Well-known member
Russia has 2 million men in their reserves, sounds more like they just have a byzantine justice system and these men were in the country illegally.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
I don't think JIT means what you seem to think it means. Slack capacity means that the factories aren't running at 100% of their possible output, right? Whereas JIT just means minimizing/eliminating inventory buffer. Can you connect these dots?
As for your example, it doesn't say what that amounts to in terms of proportion of suppliers by volume or how many components are primarily sourced from China rather than domestically or from allies (that don't get it from China).
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Tyzuris
Primarch to your glory& the glory of him on Earth!
Considering the previous mobilization that numbered in the few hundreds of thousands region at the most, Russia probably lacks the ability to mobilize, equip and provide even a short refeesh training to a two million strong reserve. Especially given the equipment losses they've taken such as losing half of their MBTs (including stored MBTs), etc...
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Im honestly not sure what you are getting at
JIT philosophy eliminates production lines that arent necessary. If a production line isnt being used and has no likelyhood of being used it is dismantled because its not profitable. Thats why there is little slack capacity in western weapons production...most of the factories are privately owned and they will not keep production lines idle. If there is no contract for a million shells a year, then the excess production lines are shut down and the equipment is dismantled and sold off.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
No, that's not 'Just In Time' philosophy, that's how industry in general is run. There are some specific exceptions, but if a product is no longer on order, that's usually because it's obsolete, it was a fad that people don't want anymore, or you're going to be retooling your factory for whatever you're replacing it with.
JIT very specifically has to do with how much supply stockpile you keep on hand. Storing stuff costs money, and you can get your profit margin higher if, instead of owning/renting two warehouses to store materials next to your factory, you only own/rent one. This means that so long as supply shipments consistently arrive on time, your production is not interrupted, but a delay of just half a day on a shipment might shut down the whole factory, because of lack of stockpile depth.
It's also applied to retail sales and the like; stores have smaller stockrooms, and inventory that's shipped in is pushed out to the shelves pretty much right after it arrives, because they don't have much space to keep anything else on-site, but not on-shelf.
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Some people theorize Russia is doing everything possible to hold off another wave of mobilization until after election, as Putin doesn't want an extra degree of shitshow added to the political climate around it.
Also another industrial superpower moment:
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
LordsFire addressed your JIT misunderstanding. It's not uncommon for industrial workplaces to have a possible maximum throughput that's substantially higher than normal daily activity; otherwise, UPS wouldn't be able to ship any more packages at Christmastime than in mid-June. (That would go poorly for UPS.) In the case of military consumables specifically, I believe the US government spends considerable money funding "pilot light" operations that can be scaled up if the need arises, for the very reason you cite of how ruinous the costs and delays of trying to start from scratch are.
The need (for a given definition of "need") has arisen.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Those pilot light operations are only for certain factories. And they dont exist for the downstream logistical inputs. The big tank plant can theoretically expand production many many times over. But not all their subcontractors. And with the ongoing consolidation of the defense industry, there are fewer alternatives. Fact is, you can pilot light the tank plant in Lima, but You cant 'pilot light' 10,000 different subcontractors.
JIT is just a part of Lean Manufacturing, a philosophy that goes far beyond mere inventory control. Now all factories obviously do have a certain amount of surge capacity, but this is built into the regular planning and logistical flows. What they dont have is the immense slack capacity needed to surge industrial production to wartime levels. That capacity and those logistical chains have to be rebuilt from scratch.
And? Can you actually make an alternate proposition that's actually better?
The fact is that US arms industry is quite competitive regardless of your complaints.
The only way to have massive spare capacity is to, surprise surprise... either make a lot of unwanted stuff and pay for it, or pay for it somewhat less to exist and be maintained yet not make stuff. In either case, paying for decades before there's any use for it.
Pick your poison.
Meanwhile USA has no reason at all to try play "bigger number" game with modern weapons against backwards 50's era artillery spam based armies, no reason and no need, as it invests many billions into ability to achieve more effect with smaller number of more advanced weapons, airpower especially.
Fun fact: There is a massive slack capacity, it's called the civilian economy. It takes some time and money to tap into it, especially without going to war footing, but it is there.