Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Marduk]

the biggest question on my mind is if the Russians are paying him for his blatant lies, or if he's just that deluded.

Let's not forget old KGB's favorite, kompromat. The possibility that Russian state services are in possession of documents that, in case those services ever find themselves less than satisfied with his public activities, could be anonymously mailed to FBI or IRS, and are interesting enough that it would almost assure the guy stays in prison for the rest of his life. He was working with RT, which is Russian state media, so they may even have some easily arranged some shady financial stuff, if not spicier and more scripted events.

The really interesting aspect of this theory is that he seems to be *really* trying to keep such hypothetical handlers satisfied. Even too hard for the purpose, well beyond the point of undermining the credibility of his claims with their obviously extreme and unlikely nature.

 

[Zachowon]

Ryan Mcbeth stays apolitical and just focuses on facts

 

[ATP]

Ryan McBeth did a fact checking of Tucker Carlson's Interview with the Honorable Colonel Douglas MacGregor in regards to Ukraine. He gives the Colonel a lot of benefit of doubt during the fact checking to the point it could almost be a drinking game.



He starts off by pointing out two common fallacies that are exhibited in the Interview, including the Strawman Fallacy and Proof by Assertion/False Assertion Fallacy.

Some of the statements made in the interview that are fact checked.

4:15 - Tucker says that Ukraine is being destroyed in lobsided battles with a Russian technologically superior enemy,
5:55 - Tucker says that the most likely outcome is American troops will fight the Russians in Eastern Europe.
6:35 - States Ukraine has lost 400,000 Troops Killed.
9:05 - States entire Ukrainian platoons and companies are surrendering to the Russians due to massive numbers of wounded and because since the beginning of the War, Russians have treated Ukrainian prisoners very fairly.
10:15 - Russia has 300,000 Combat Troops Ready in Reserve to Counter when NATO/US Advances into Western Ukraine.
12:15 - "Our equipment is decades old. The tanks I served on in 1990 were virtually brand new, state of the art. Those tanks are still out there. They've been rebuilt but they're not new anymore. They're no longer as capable as they once were."
14:05 - Russians have no shortages on ammunition. The West cannot compete.
15:15 - Russian Integrated Air Defenses will knock everything flying out of the sky so to prevent the Russians from advancing, the US will resort to using tactical nuclear weapons.
16:25 - Russia attacked Ukraine to prevent the US from stationing nuclear missiles in Eastern Ukraine which could strike at Russia in a matter of minutes.
18:00 - The Russian military today is more powerful Russian military in 30-40, including the Soviet Army of the mid-1980's.
19:20 - The Russians pioneered the use of intelligence gathering via satellites and airpower combined with precision strikes weapons and are ahead of the West in both categories.
21:25 - The United States isn't getting new equipment to replace old equipment sent to Ukraine, it's just getting new old version equipment.
22:10 - Only some of the Western equipment is reaching Ukraine. Much of it is ending up in Kosovo Arms Bazaars and Mexican Drug/Human Trafficking Cartels including Javelins carried by cartel members openly.
23:55 - The US Can't Reinforce Europe because of Russia's Submarine Fleets.
25:30 - US Troops out of uniform are already fighting in Ukraine because they are getting combat pay.
26:05 - High Tech Startups are Pointless. AI is a waste because it's just better algorithms.
27:05 - Putin's Russia is an Orthodox Christian State with a Strong Russian Ethnic Identity, not a polyglot like the rest of Europe.
28:00 - Hawaiians have only received $700 dollars of aid while the Ukrainian black hole is getting billions in funds.

Original uncensored version on Substack.

(Original Version) Fact Checking the Tucker Carlson - Col MacGregor Interview

The truth has a roof, but the sky's the limit with lies.

ryanmcbeth.substack.com

Why lie so much? well,Hawaii and maybe AI is real,but rest...
If Ukraine lost 400.000 KIA,then,considering that there is 2-3 injured for one,there would be no ukrainian army now.
And,their "Orthodox Church" is lead by KGB officer.Not agent,officer.

 

[Husky_Khan]

A good thread on defensive lines and definitions thereof since it came up in discussion recently.

Thread by @DefMon3 on Thread Reader App

@DefMon3: A brief clarification regarding the defensive lines. @KofmanMichael addressed this in a recent war on the rocks podcast. On a daily basis I see questions like: "Where are the defensive lines" "Which is the ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Ryan McBeth did a fact checking of Tucker Carlson's Interview with the Honorable Colonel Douglas MacGregor in regards to Ukraine. He gives the Colonel a lot of benefit of doubt during the fact checking to the point it could almost be a drinking game.



He starts off by pointing out two common fallacies that are exhibited in the Interview, including the Strawman Fallacy and Proof by Assertion/False Assertion Fallacy.

Some of the statements made in the interview that are fact checked.

4:15 - Tucker says that Ukraine is being destroyed in lobsided battles with a Russian technologically superior enemy,
5:55 - Tucker says that the most likely outcome is American troops will fight the Russians in Eastern Europe.
6:35 - States Ukraine has lost 400,000 Troops Killed.
9:05 - States entire Ukrainian platoons and companies are surrendering to the Russians due to massive numbers of wounded and because since the beginning of the War, Russians have treated Ukrainian prisoners very fairly.
10:15 - Russia has 300,000 Combat Troops Ready in Reserve to Counter when NATO/US Advances into Western Ukraine.
12:15 - "Our equipment is decades old. The tanks I served on in 1990 were virtually brand new, state of the art. Those tanks are still out there. They've been rebuilt but they're not new anymore. They're no longer as capable as they once were."
14:05 - Russians have no shortages on ammunition. The West cannot compete.
15:15 - Russian Integrated Air Defenses will knock everything flying out of the sky so to prevent the Russians from advancing, the US will resort to using tactical nuclear weapons.
16:25 - Russia attacked Ukraine to prevent the US from stationing nuclear missiles in Eastern Ukraine which could strike at Russia in a matter of minutes.
18:00 - The Russian military today is more powerful Russian military in 30-40, including the Soviet Army of the mid-1980's.
19:20 - The Russians pioneered the use of intelligence gathering via satellites and airpower combined with precision strikes weapons and are ahead of the West in both categories.
21:25 - The United States isn't getting new equipment to replace old equipment sent to Ukraine, it's just getting new old version equipment.
22:10 - Only some of the Western equipment is reaching Ukraine. Much of it is ending up in Kosovo Arms Bazaars and Mexican Drug/Human Trafficking Cartels including Javelins carried by cartel members openly.
23:55 - The US Can't Reinforce Europe because of Russia's Submarine Fleets.
25:30 - US Troops out of uniform are already fighting in Ukraine because they are getting combat pay.
26:05 - High Tech Startups are Pointless. AI is a waste because it's just better algorithms.
27:05 - Putin's Russia is an Orthodox Christian State with a Strong Russian Ethnic Identity, not a polyglot like the rest of Europe.
28:00 - Hawaiians have only received $700 dollars of aid while the Ukrainian black hole is getting billions in funds.

Original uncensored version on Substack.

(Original Version) Fact Checking the Tucker Carlson - Col MacGregor Interview

The truth has a roof, but the sky's the limit with lies.

ryanmcbeth.substack.com

Good grief, what a liar. Either he’s being payed to spout this delusion, or he is so blinded by political tribalism that he can’t properly perceive and assess the situation.

If anything like what he’s blathering about were true, Kyiv would actually be falling any day now.

 

[Husky_Khan]

🤨



What are Russians even doing here?

 

[Spartan303]

At first I thought they might have been fixing the car. Then it looks like they robbed it...and one dumbass left his weapon leaning against the car.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Perun released a video on the Ukraine Air War since apparently things have happened in the many months since his last video covered this topic.



Topics here include the expanded use of drones, especially in striking targets in Russia as well as the deployment of Storm Shadow Cruise Missiles. Airplane attrition, F-16's and sabotage efforts as well as much much more!

 

[Zachowon]

Yep.
First challenger 2 destroyed.
Sad day, but it's just one.
How many T 90Ms have been lost?

 

[paulobrito]

Yep.
First challenger 2 destroyed.
Sad day, but it's just one.
How many T 90Ms have been lost?

Many, but there are many more in the theatre of operations.
To be fair, no tank in service today is designed to survive top-down attack weapons.
You can place any model you care and they don't survive much time in the Ukraine 'little' war.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Yep.
First challenger 2 destroyed.
Sad day, but it's just one.
How many T 90Ms have been lost?

The t90m was never promoted as nigh invincible wunderwaffen.

 

[Marduk]

The t90m was never promoted as nigh invincible wunderwaffen.

Stop clowning around, no one was saying Challenger 2 is a BOLO.
Also don't underestimate Russian propaganda like that, someone could lose a job for failing to say such things.

 

[Zachowon]

Many, but there are many more in the theatre of operations.
To be fair, no tank in service today is designed to survive top-down attack weapons.
You can place any model you care and they don't survive much time in the Ukraine 'little' war.

Oh very true. Indirect fire is a killer of vehicles. That is why counter fire artillery is a huge part in war. Destroy the guns that shoot and you can have more things on the ground

The t90m was never promoted as nigh invincible wunderwaffen.

No one said the challenger 2 was either.
And the T90M has basically been advertised like it is in propaganda

 

[Husky_Khan]

It looks like Ukraine was behind the January 6th Insurrection and the entire Neo-Nazi Movement in America.

Thread by @cossackgundi on Thread Reader App

@cossackgundi: I'm going to say it because no one else seems to be able to have any verification on this guy, Kent Mclellan aka Boneface Is either a poser or purposely lying that he served in...

threadreaderapp.com

Sad.

 

[lloyd007]

Stop clowning around, no one was saying Challenger 2 is a BOLO.
Also don't underestimate Russian propaganda like that, someone could lose a job for failing to say such things.

Honestly, it'd be one thing if Ukraine had retaken a single large settlement in this counteroffensive, but seeing a dead Challenger 2 less than 10km from the front line 2 months ago sends a message that the Ukrainians aren't gonna overcome the Russian tactic of just slamming cannon fodder onto the front line and running out the clock until some kinda deal is forced with the front line being whatever the new DMZ is.

That's the fundamental problem Ukraine has, they've burned through most of their Soviet inheritance (and burn through more of it every day), have inadequate domestic industry and resources and are near completely reliant on other nations for their arms and ammunition (paid for by those same nations since they can pay bargain basement discount pricing, much less wholesale, much much less retail) while Russia can just keep flooding in the Pvt. Conscriptoviches to plug the gaps of their actual combat units.

 

[Buba]

Challenger's 120mm is different from all other current MBT's 120's. It's rifled.

I wonder if it matters.
If rifling had made cannon much more accurate, I wonder if there would had been the shift to smoothbores shooting darts. At much higher velocity.
Rifling forces the use of lower pressure to fire projectiles.

 

[Marduk]

I wonder if it matters.
If rifling had made cannon much more accurate, I wonder if there would had been the shift to smoothbores shooting darts. At much higher velocity.
Rifling forces the use of lower pressure to fire projectiles.

Smoothbore works better with APFSDS and HEAT. But the British wanted to keep using HESH which needs spin to work well. But in range, accuracy and slinging HE, well, for one all artillery and naval guns are rifled for a reason.

Honestly, it'd be one thing if Ukraine had retaken a single large settlement in this counteroffensive, but seeing a dead Challenger 2 less than 10km from the front line 2 months ago sends a message that the Ukrainians aren't gonna overcome the Russian tactic of just slamming cannon fodder onto the front line and running out the clock until some kinda deal is forced with the front line being whatever the new DMZ is.

That's the fundamental problem Ukraine has, they've burned through most of their Soviet inheritance (and burn through more of it every day), have inadequate domestic industry and resources and are near completely reliant on other nations for their arms and ammunition (paid for by those same nations since they can pay bargain basement discount pricing, much less wholesale, much much less retail) while Russia can just keep flooding in the Pvt. Conscriptoviches to plug the gaps of their actual combat units.

They recently broke through the biggest defense line.

 

[lloyd007]

They recently broke through the biggest defense line.

And if they can actually exploit the break through, good for them, but they broke through days ago and from all maps haven't been able to do much of anything since Russia just redeployed tons of fodder and some of their better units to the area and from all evidence Ukraine doesn't have the troops to make a breakthrough elsewhere...

And there little to nothing stopping the Russians from just building more huge minefields and trenchworks a couple of miles behind the fighting to be manned if/when Ukraine takes the current front line.

 

[Zachowon]

And if they can actually break through, good for them, but they broke through days ago and from all maps haven't been able to do much of anything since Russia just redeployed tons of fodder and some of their better units to the area and from all evidence Ukraine doesn't have the troops to make a breakthrough elsewhere...

And there little to nothing stopping the Russians from just building more huge minefields and trenchworks a couple of miles behind the fighting to be manned if/when Ukraine takes the current front line.

It's called you secure your break through while also sending forces out to probe for more.
Plenty of reports indicate a lot of going on

 

[Marduk]

And if they can actually exploit the break through, good for them, but they broke through days ago and from all maps haven't been able to do much of anything since Russia just redeployed tons of fodder and some of their better units to the area and from all evidence Ukraine doesn't have the troops to make a breakthrough elsewhere...

I think we have established by now that things rarely happen fast in this war, and if you bet too much on them happening fast, it's not gonna end well. But that doesn't mean said things don't happen.

And there little to nothing stopping the Russians from just building more huge minefields and trenchworks a couple of miles behind the fighting to be manned if/when Ukraine takes the current front line.

The "nothing" is called 155mm and HIMARS. You build huge minefields and trenchworks before the terrain in question is under active fire control. Once it is, that gets a lot more costly.