Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Marduk]

Casualty Estimates from the War Leaked.



Unlike the earlier leaked numbers, these ones haven't apparently been poor edited by 'tards.

And those look far closer to the official data too. Still, methodology would be nice to know. Say, one of contentious points is how and if WIA->KIA situations caused by poor medical system are counted, and if so, how are they estimated, how this point is treated can have major impact on the overall number balance.
And then there is the counting and types of casualties. Does a guy with a minor fragment wound that will be combat capable again in a week count? Does he count the same as a guy missing limbs or other important body parts? Who has more of which?
It's a wild assumption that the data regarding both sides in this is measured with identical standards and reliability.

 

[lloyd007]

Problem is with those numbers for me is that I have been hearing them since the third month of the conflict so I am very skeptical about them.

Pure propaganda moving the Overton window. Russia doesn't admit to jack spit on own their casualty tallies so all we see are the big numbers put up by Kyiv who are the absolutely least reliable source and inferences based on sources like Oryx which includes a lot of vehicles captured and/or destroyed after being abandoned (i.e. probably 0 casualties) and just mission killed (i.e. assuming the entire crew got BBQ'ed like the do in the turret tosslympics is... dubious).

 

[Captain X]

I guess I'll just point out that while Russia is desperate for manpower, have raised the age limit for their draft, will over-react to draft-dodgers and people who refuse to fight, and that we've seen the Russian troops and their families complain about the lack of supplies and equipment, Ukraine is apparently comfortable enough to send people to other countries for training, and that the biggest issue people have there is over the implementation of their own draft.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

I guess I'll just point out that while Russia is desperate for manpower, have raised the age limit for their draft, will over-react to draft-dodgers and people who refuse to fight, and that we've seen the Russian troops and their families complain about the lack of supplies and equipment, Ukraine is apparently comfortable enough to send people to other countries for training, and that the biggest issue people have there is over the implementation of their own draft.

Ukraine is in a tight spot but they don't strike me as frantic or desperate. This is not the behaviour of someone who's losing a war.

 

[Megadeath]

Problem is with those numbers for me is that I have been hearing them since the third month of the conflict so I am very skeptical about them.

Really? I don't think you can show me anything from around that time that'll show even close to those numbers.

IF reasonably accurate... oof Ukraine + reddit's 170k+ Russians killed claims and any reasonable hope of running Russia out of 'front line' manpower.

Depends really. I mean, non-kia casualties might be back in action in a month or permanently medically unfit for service. A soldier doesn't need to be dead to be out of the fight.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Looks like NATO deployed the HAARP System against the Russians. We last saw this used against Iran about a decade ago.

Whether the Americans used it directly or they gave a HAARP System to Ukraine in exchange for billions of dollars worth of laundered funds remains unknown as of yet.

Either way the mask is off. They're striking civilian targets with strategic weapons and the Western media is silent.



Rest in Peace...

 

[The Original Sixth]

Central Asians are being persuaded to work and settle in occupied Ukrainian territories.

Hundreds of Migrant Workers from various former Soviet Central Asian Republics are being hired by Russian firms to collect dead bodies, dig trenches and engage in construction work, often very close to war zones. Some have reportedly been killed or wounded. Some issues have apparently arisen over apparent deception regarding the safety and security of the work, lack of promised pay and the inability to leave Ukraine if dissatisfied with their work. Apparently Russian Women Convicts are also being persuaded to work in Ukraine in exchange for having their criminal records expunged and/or payment.

Collecting Dead Russians: Central Asians Being Lured To Work In Occupied Ukraine

Hundreds of Central Asian migrants work in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, digging trenches, collecting dead bodies, and repairing war-ravaged buildings. Their governments have warned them not to go to Ukraine, and Kyiv says they are seen as accomplices of the invaders.

www.rferl.org

Reportedly around forty thousand Russians, largely of Central Asian ethnicity, are being persuaded to resettle in cities like Mariupol which had a prewar population of over 400,000 and now currently has a population of about a tenth of that.

Russia scrubs Mariupol's Ukraine identity, builds on death

Throughout Mariupol, Russian workers are tearing down bombed-out buildings at a rate of at least one a day, hauling away shattered bodies with the debris.

apnews.com

Oh, that's a nasty curve ball. If the Ukrainians drive out the Russians, they'll be dealing with a third party of alien settlers. It'd either be drive them out or let them stay. Either choice would create problems.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Meh...at this point, they are Russian assets that can be forcibly removed without much consequence.

 

[Marduk]

Oh, that's a nasty curve ball. If the Ukrainians drive out the Russians, they'll be dealing with a third party of alien settlers. It'd either be drive them out or let them stay. Either choice would create problems.

They are 100% getting kicked out as illegal immigrants. They have no Ukrainian residence papers of any kind, and Ukraine has no reason to recognize Russian ones.

 

[Buba]

Post war Ukraine will face a demographic crisis. And the Central Asians are not that alien - same as Ukrainians they are to large degree Homo Sovieticus Evolvus.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Post war Ukraine will face a demographic crisis. And the Central Asians are not that alien - same as Ukrainians they are to large degree Homo Sovieticus Evolvus.

Actually I'd be more surprised if post war ukraine doesn't experience a population boom due to a lack of available contraceptives.

 

[The Original Sixth]

They are 100% getting kicked out as illegal immigrants. They have no Ukrainian residence papers of any kind, and Ukraine has no reason to recognize Russian ones.

I agree with you, but liberals might not. Liberals within and outside of Ukraine will not be happy at a third party being forced to relocate (and to where? Russia again?). I think aside from cheap labor, the Russians are hoping this will cause internal turmoil within Ukraine and NATO.

 

[Marduk]

Post war Ukraine will face a demographic crisis. And the Central Asians are not that alien - same as Ukrainians they are to large degree Homo Sovieticus Evolvus.

The whole point of the war is that Ukrainians want to leave the post-soviet club politically and culturally, not get closer to it.

I agree with you, but liberals might not. Liberals within and outside of Ukraine will not be happy at a third party being forced to relocate (and to where? Russia again?). I think aside from cheap labor, the Russians are hoping this will cause internal turmoil within Ukraine and NATO.

If the pro-Ukraine liberals could stomach nationalist militias, they can stomach this too.
Meanwhile in Ukraine and nearby countries this kind of attitudes are not something existing on meaningful scale.

 

[lloyd007]

If Ukraine is successful in retaking its land, I expect most of em will probably run away from the front line and Ukraine can do whatever 'humanitarian' things with the rest which doesn't include allowing them to continue to occupy the land they're squatting on in the least.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Realistically they aren't going to wanna stay in places ukraine retakes because the regular Ukrainian citizenry will no doubt make their lives a living hell.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

One thing that'll happen if the Ukrainians retake all this territory is that you'll see civilian groups running through 'dealing' with the Russian partisans. Of course, like all such instances, the Scarlet Letters will be handed out according to personal inclinations, hatreds and old grudges.

 

[Tyzuris]

One thing that'll happen if the Ukrainians retake all this territory is that you'll see civilian groups running through 'dealing' with the Russian partisans. Of course, like all such instances, the Scarlet Letters will be handed out according to personal inclinations, hatreds and old grudges.

And if Ukrainians retake all the territory including Crimea, it'll most likely put the pressure can in Kreml to overdrive setting and be the opening shot of a coup which ends in Putin dead. Because that would have meant that Putin squandered away Russia's reputation as the number 2 military in the world to more like number 20 military of the world, got a significant chunk of Russia's Ground Forces killed and majority of their modern equipment destroyed, losing everything gained in 2014, getting Finland and Sweden to join NATO, getting Russia permanently doomed to economic destitution as no one in the West will buy Russian energy anymore (especially as the transition to green energy moves forward even quicker) and their economy loses the one pillar they were based on which will also mean there will not be money to replenish Russia's military losses in Ukraine.

And much to Putin's displeasure, he can forget about going to history as the next Peter the Great retaking all lost Soviet territory and reclaiming the standing of USSR. Instead of Putin the Great, he'll be known as Putin the Dumbass who did the biggest self-own of the century costing Russia what little of their great power status they had left.

 

[Buba]

Actually I'd be more surprised if post war ukraine doesn't experience a population boom due to a lack of available contraceptives.

At present many fecund women are out of the country, and many fertile males on the front.
No conducive to nookie.
After the war contraceptives will be back.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

At present many fecund women are out of the country, and many fertile males on the front.
No conducive to nookie.
After the war contraceptives will be back.

When those guys aren't at the front the first thing they do is get laid.

 

[strunkenwhite]

I agree with you, but liberals might not. Liberals within and outside of Ukraine will not be happy at a third party being forced to relocate (and to where? Russia again?). I think aside from cheap labor, the Russians are hoping this will cause internal turmoil within Ukraine and NATO.

Ask the ones who want to stay to swear an oath of loyalty to Ukraine. If they won't, they get the boot. If they will, it's probably worth giving them a chance. Ukraine will have a lot of work to do.