Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

With what Husky posted.
I can assess that the Ammo depots on the side the fighting is on have been destroyed or are targets and will make it so ammo getting to the troops is more difficult
 
I'm sorry for your inability to tell rumors from facts. No, rumors shared between politicians and journos aren't facts.
Yes, they were negotiating. Unfortunately, the offers that Russia would find acceptable tended to be untrustworthy, utter shite, or both. So no point in continuing the charade.
Are you some kind of pacifist who believes in "peace at any cost" or what?

No? I believe a buffoon dragged everyone through a couple of years of another scam emergency so he could sell more weapons @LTR if you believe this belongs in DonBass you can move no problem.
 
No? I believe a buffoon dragged everyone through a couple of years of another scam emergency so he could sell more weapons @LTR if you believe this belongs in DonBass you can move no problem.
If you completely ignore all the background of the conflict going back to 2014 and the whole geopolitical situation around it to make it into a simple, hippy friendly "military industrial complex bad, if not for it Russians and Ukrainians would just sit together and sing kumbayah" story perfectly fit for a propagandist-comedian who dislikes DNC for... not being progressive enough, sure.
 
If you completely ignore all the background of the conflict going back to 2014 and the whole geopolitical situation around it to make it into a simple, hippy friendly "military industrial complex bad, if not for it Russians and Ukrainians would just sit together and sing kumbayah" story perfectly fit for a propagandist-comedian who dislikes DNC for... not being progressive enough, sure.

You mean the 2014 coup and the progroms that happened afterwards because of Russian-speaking Ukranian said "Fuck no" to to an US backed revolution ? And you use wikipedia as source to discredit what he say? Really ? Probably something that is even more "progressive" than him?

The Russians and Ukranians probably wouldn't sing kumbayah but the war probably might even have not began in the first place.
 
You mean the 2014 coup and the progroms that happened afterwards because of Russian-speaking Ukranian said "Fuck no" to to an US backed revolution ?
What fucking pogroms?
You are mindlessly repeating pure Russian propaganda here.
Any major support (acquired thanks to major propaganda efforts beforehand) that Russia had in Ukraine was effectively ruined with Russia's big reveal of its stick based policy after 2014, that's what polling shows.
Just because someone speaks Russian doesn't mean he has to be sympathetic to Russian state, doubly so its imperial ego.
Just like people who speak English have no particular reason to feel a desire to submit to the rule of the English monarchy. In fact quite a bunch of them threw a big fit (and a load of tea into a harbor) over that kind of stuff few centuries ago.

“Now I don’t know anybody who says, ‘We want to be Russian.’ They want to be alive, to be free people,” she says. “We see what Putin did with Crimea, and with Donbass; we see that people don’t have a good life. Young people hate Russia, and have no ambition to be with Russia.”
Long story short, as i've repeated many times on this forum, the advertising of "Russian world" is quite a bit more positive and desirable than the reality of it.
And so it follows that most people praising it are doing either from the top of it, or from a safe distance.
And you use wikipedia as source to discredit what he say? Really ? Probably something that is even more "progressive" than him?
Do you have any more trustworthy source to show that he isn't? Nevermind the challenge of being more progressive than "support Sanders and complain that AOC is not radical enough progressive".

The Russians and Ukranians probably wouldn't sing kumbayah but the war probably might even have not began in the first place.
Well of course Russians would like to rule Ukraine without having to fight a war for it, doubly so a war that isn't a proverbial quick and victorious one.
But who would that be good for and who not, that's a separate discussion.
 
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Oooh, if they want a wall between them and Germany, they are free to send us their "best". We'll stack 'em until they stop coming. And before you infract me, @ATP uses far worse language for the Russians.

Not possible.Russians is nation genocided by soviets,so i rarely mention them.
Look who is talking, you push any kind of bullshit, no matter how outlandish, as long as the pun is Russia bad.
Russia was murdered by soviets.And soviete were,are,and would be bad.They could not behave another way.
 
Sometimes I worry for your mental health @ATP. I hope you're okay.

Thank you,good sir.But - since soviets on Ukraine are waving red flags,i do not see reason to pretend that they are Russians.
Becouse real Russians never fought under soviet flags,but against it.
And,commies destroyed partially also my nation - at least 20% of people in Poland are soviets,who once srved Moscov,and now serve anybody except Poland.
Only reason why we still exist when russian vanished - soviet treated us in kid gloves compared to russians.And ruled over us 40,n0t 75 years.
Well,catholic church helped a lot,too - but,in soviets they were send to mass graves or gulags,when in Poland churches was still open.
 
Ukrainian forces are forming a rough salient along one axis of advance reportedly during this offensive.



Two below are some of the Blue Checkmarks I really enjoy following the accounts of during this conflict.

Rob Lee offered his take on the Kherson Offensive in a fifteen tweet long thread. He's mostly touching on the military factors as opposed to making low confidence predictions of the future. Factors for the Ukrainian Army include they must feel they are well supplied with NATO PGM's, guided artillery, and artillery ammunition in general. However its less clear if they have enough armored vehicles to rapidly exploit any successes. Ukraine also may have to draw on reserves to sustain a mass of force.

Conversely Russian forces are made up of large amounts of short term volunteers. How many of these volunteers will extend their services? The manpower issues for Russia might help boost defensive operations, but would make offensives or counter-offensives difficult and just sustaining the current conflict would be costly.



Michael Kofman also comments on the current Ukrainian Offensive in Kherson. In his thirteen tweet long thread discussing it, some takeaways from me is that expectations of regaining territory should be tempered against long term sustainability and force preservation balanced against how the Russian position on the North/West side of the Dnipro River is their most strategically vulnerable point. He also comments that he feels the Ukrainians wouldn't want to fight through Kherson as much as compel the Russians to withdraw, as per Snake Island.

 
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That salient can be hit by arty from a lot of sides and is in a risk of being cut from the Ukrainian lines and destroyed in detail.
 
Personally I doubt Ukraine will try to get into an urban brawl in Kherson, when the salient looks to be going after the only other bridge in the area that is still functional.

If Ukraine can trap a shitload of Russians in Kherson by taking that other bridge, and starve/wait them out/use them as political bargaining chips against Moscow, they won't need to assault the city.
 
But will it be?
Considering Ukrainians are storming that small patch of woods near Bilohorka for 6th day now, without success, Russians can simply let Ukrainians make small territorial gains in exchange for unsustainable losses as here they can inflict much worse attrition rates than in Donbass. Ukrainians are using their local superiority in numbers to advance in open ground against enemy with plentiful artillery and ammo, using forward units as ablative screen, unfortunately this means some of their more coherent units (especially 28th mechanized and 128th mountain) will be rendered offensive incapable, for negligible ground gains.

Remember the bridge situation

They seriously damaged Antonov bridge. There is still railway bridge, that can be prepared for vehicle traffic, multiple pontoon bridges and ferries. Most importantly of all however, there is hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka which is much more resistant to damage than the bridges.
 
Considering Ukrainians are storming that small patch of woods near Bilohorka for 6th day now, without success, Russians can simply let Ukrainians make small territorial gains in exchange for unsustainable losses as here they can inflict much worse attrition rates than in Donbass. Ukrainians are using their local superiority in numbers to advance in open ground against enemy with plentiful artillery and ammo, using forward units as ablative screen, unfortunately this means some of their more coherent units (especially 28th mechanized and 128th mountain) will be rendered offensive incapable, for negligible ground gains.



They seriously damaged Antonov bridge. There is still railway bridge, that can be prepared for vehicle traffic, multiple pontoon bridges and ferries. Most importantly of all however, there is hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka which is much more resistant to damage than the bridges.



All damaged. Several times over. All that structural damage and quick fixes adds up so they aren't going to handle heavy loads. Hence, plentiful artillery or any other supplies, byebye.
 
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Yeah.
Damaged makes them impassible. That aline makes getting artillery ammunition moot.
One shouldnalso realize that the Ukrainians know it will be a slog but they are making gains in the northern part of that front, and potentially elsewhere as well. Making it worse for them
 
USA try to change goverment in Poland,supporting...german party there
American Ambassador in Poland,Mark Brzeziński,was on Campus Polska przyszłość/polish future/ 26.8.2022.
Supporting Rafał Trzaskowski,presidemt of Warsaw and one of leaders of PO.
Germans and russians always supported PO,but now USA joined them.

What it mean? if USA want gave Poland to germans/Moscov,then they want gave up on Ukraine,too.
Poor Ukrainians.Poor Poland.

But,on another hand,Khazachstan is showing fuck Putin.Which mean,that China support them.

We/Poland/ have still chance if we agree to be China vassals - becouse USA clearly gave us to Moscov for nothing again.
 

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