Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Husky_Khan]

2 years isn't enough?

Or has covid fucked the procurement for the new shit?

Article stated:

Swedish manufacturer Saab has signed an $87 million multi-year contract with the Army to furnish soldiers with new and improved 85mm M3E1 Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles in the coming years, the company announced on Thursday.

And

Although the 2017 requirements called for the Army to field just 1,111 new and improved M3E1 Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles, Army budget documents indicate a target acquisition objective of around 2,460 total boomsticks through 2023.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Article stated:

Swedish manufacturer Saab has signed an $87 million multi-year contract with the Army to furnish soldiers with new and improved 85mm M3E1 Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles in the coming years, the company announced on Thursday.

And

Although the 2017 requirements called for the Army to field just 1,111 new and improved M3E1 Carl Gustaf recoilless rifles, Army budget documents indicate a target acquisition objective of around 2,460 total boomsticks through 2023.

I'm not sure if they'll meet that deadline with fucked up supply chains, weakening economy and an increased demand in energy.

 

[Zachowon]

You're using a 2020 article when supposed military anons are bitching about their equipment being taken away now.

Because you rotate equipment...
Like, I have not heard ANYONE I know in SF say shit.

 

[Bear Ribs]

Mildly interesting, the ECHR has ruled against Russia and in favor of Jehovah's Witnesses, who have been imprisoned and had all their property seized in Russia for being "extremists." Granted this doesn't actually mean much directly since Russia has around a 100% chance of thumbing their nose at any ruling they don't like, but it does establish some important precedents for religious freedom in Balkan states and areas where the ECHR still has some authority.

Europe’s Top Rights Court Rules Against Russia’s Jehovah’s Witnesses Ban - The Moscow Times

Europe’s highest human rights court ordered Moscow to overturn its ban on the country’s Jehovah’s Witnesses Tuesday, just hours before Russian lawmakers passed legislation ending its jurisdiction.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[TheRejectionist]

 

[Marduk]

And this shit is reason number billion why you shouldn't take political advice from leftist comedians.

Dore started as a comedian in Illinois in 1989 and made several appearances on late-night comedy shows early in his comedy career. From 2005 onward, his performances increasingly included his own political commentary. Dore was affiliated with The Young Turks from 2009 to 2019 and appeared on a Young Turks Network show titled Aggressive Progressives. From 2010-2021 The Jimmy Dore Show was broadcast on public radio station KPFK in Los Angeles, California.

>comes out vocally in support of a country invading Ukraine
>Ukrainian patriots call him enemy of the(ir) state on their website
>shockedpikachuface.jpg

 

[TheRejectionist]

And this shit is reason number billion why you shouldn't take political advice from leftist comedians.

>comes out vocally in support of a country invading Ukraine - Since when pointing out that NATO expansion is the cause of this shitstorm being a Russian supporter ?
>Ukrainian NAZIS call him enemy of the(ir) state on their KILL-LIST on the internet.
>OHFUCKFUCKFUCK.jpg

 

[Marduk]

>comes out vocally in support of a country invading Ukraine - Since when pointing out that NATO expansion is the cause of this shitstorm being a Russian supporter ?

Since it's a very controversial theory that since the invasion didn't work out as planned even Russian leaders have backed out of, as it was bullshit intended for naive westerner's consumption, hitting into their "live and let live" isolationist tendencies.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-admits-ukraine-invasion-imperial-171600302.html

If there is any truth to the "muh NATO expansion" theory, why can't even Vladimir fucking Putin personally stick to it?

>Ukrainian NAZIS call him enemy of the(ir) state on their KILL-LIST on the internet.

They are as "nazi" as you are for posting on this very forum.
It's a shit list that random people with an axe to grind call a kill list. Considering that there is war, treason and separatism going around, some of the people on the list do get killed.

 

[WolfBear]

If Russia will ever actually manage to conquer most of Ukraine, will the West militarily intervene in order to prevent Galicia and Volhynia from falling to Russia in order to keep a Free Ukraine in a part of Ukraine's territory so that Ukrainians can go and move there? Or would the West prefer to have Galicians and Volhynians cause as much trouble as possible for Russia in this scenario?

 

[WolfBear]

Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes)

Russia has very fast population growth, added ~5 million people in the past half year alone which in % terms would leave any Sub-Saharan country in the shade. For industrialized nations, military expansion is the most realistic method of generating fast population growth.

nitter.1d4.us

Just how many of these extra five million new Russians came from the Donbass? Specifically from the parts that were already under separatist control before the start of this war? A majority of them? If so, then Russia could have acquired them even without invading the rest of Ukraine.

Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes)

Regathering Ukraine and Belarus will increase the economies of scale available to Russia long-term.

nitter.1d4.us

By that logic, having the Soviet Union occupy Eastern Europe for half a century was likewise perfectly legitimate since it significantly increased the amount of high-quality human capital at the Soviet Union's disposal, no? What Eastern Europeans themselves would have preferred doesn't factor into this calculation at all, right? Only the interests of large and powerful countries really matter, according to Anatoly Karlin.

By the way, by Karlin's own logic, Russia will need even further expansion on top of this since even if Russia goes from 150 million to 175 million, it will be back at 150 million or even less than that in several decades or so due to it having a significantly sub-replacement total fertility rate.

 

[Marduk]

Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes)

Russia has very fast population growth, added ~5 million people in the past half year alone which in % terms would leave any Sub-Saharan country in the shade. For industrialized nations, military expansion is the most realistic method of generating fast population growth.

nitter.1d4.us

Just how many of these extra five million new Russians came from the Donbass? Specifically from the parts that were already under separatist control before the start of this war? A majority of them? If so, then Russia could have acquired them even without invading the rest of Ukraine.

Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes)

Regathering Ukraine and Belarus will increase the economies of scale available to Russia long-term.

nitter.1d4.us

This is an eastern "le based not woke imperialist" version of "let's import infinite immigrants, what could go wrong" argument used in certain neoliberal and left-liberal circles in certain western countries.

But the problem is well illustrated by a joke that, at least in this variation, is aimed at the EU bureaucrats.

A guy in a suit visits a highland farmer and says:
"If i can guess exactly how many sheep you have, you will give me one. Deal?"
The farmer agrees.
The guy guesses accurately. The farmer goes:
"Ok, that's pretty impressive, but if i can accurately guess who are you, you will have to give that animal back to me."
The guy doesn't believe the farmer can do that and agrees.
The farmer goes "You must be a EU bureaucrat."
The guy is shocked, asks, "How could you possibly know that?"
The farmer replies:
"Give me back my sheepdog you idiot".

The point is, numbers going up are one thing, but comparing numbers is completely useless if you don't know the specifications of the stuff you are counting. The same applies to citizens, migrants, conquered populations, whatever. It doesn't say anywhere that these have to be interchangeable, and usually they aren't interchangeable in some quite significant ways.

By that logic, having the Soviet Union occupy Eastern Europe for half a century was likewise perfectly legitimate since it significantly increased the amount of high-quality human capital at the Soviet Union's disposal, no? What Eastern Europeans themselves would have preferred doesn't factor into this calculation at all, right? Only the interests of large and powerful countries really matter, according to Anatoly Karlin.

By the way, by Karlin's own logic, Russia will need even further expansion on top of this since even if Russia goes from 150 million to 175 million, it will be back at 150 million or even less than that in several decades or so due to it having a significantly sub-replacement total fertility rate.

If that line of thinking is truly accepted in Kremlin, exit visas are coming fast. Russians will have to beg for permission to leave their country like North Koreans, and their rulers will soon realize that in light of this nothing stops them from treating their serfs accordingly.

 

[WolfBear]

This is an eastern "le based not woke imperialist" version of "let's import infinite immigrants, what could go wrong" argument used in certain neoliberal and left-liberal circles in certain western countries.

But the problem is well illustrated by a joke that, at least in this variation, is aimed at the EU bureaucrats.

A guy in a suit visits a highland farmer and says:
"If i can guess exactly how many sheep you have, you will give me one. Deal?"
The farmer agrees.
The guy guesses accurately. The farmer goes:
"Ok, that's pretty impressive, but if i can accurately guess who are you, you will have to give that animal back to me."
The guy doesn't believe the farmer can do that and agrees.
The farmer goes "You must be a EU bureaucrat."
The guy is shocked, asks, "How could you possibly know that?"
The farmer replies:
"Give me back my sheepdog you idiot".

The point is, numbers going up are one thing, but comparing numbers is completely useless if you don't know the specifications of the stuff you are counting. The same applies to citizens, migrants, conquered populations, whatever. It doesn't say anywhere that these have to be interchangeable, and usually they aren't interchangeable in some quite significant ways.

If that line of thinking is truly accepted in Kremlin, exit visas are coming fast. Russians will have to beg for permission to leave their country like North Koreans, and their rulers will soon realize that in light of this nothing stops them from treating their serfs accordingly.

Yeah, I think that Ukrainians and Russians stopped being interchangeable in 2013-2014, if they actually were interchangeable before that, that is, which certainly isn't guaranteed. After 2014, even southern and eastern Ukraine soured on Russia, a process that significantly accelerated after the start of this year's war. People generally don't like you killing their friends and family members, especially if you're the one who starts an unprovoked war of aggression. This isn't the US killing Japanese after Pearl Harbor, since Japanese understood quite well that the US had a right to be severely pissed off due to it being attacked by the Japanese. Russia had no comparable casus belli against Ukraine, and there was no need to invade the rest of Ukraine in order to protect the Donbass; simply occupying and annexing the Donbass itself would have done the job.

As for exit visas, I don't think that very many Russians actually want to leave Russia just yet. Though maybe this could eventually change. I don't know. If exit visas do return, though, I would expect Russia to demand foreign bribes and/or diploma taxes in exchange for allowing emigration. But I don't think that the overwhelming majority of Russians would actually want to emigrate.

 

[Marduk]

Yeah, I think that Ukrainians and Russians stopped being interchangeable in 2013-2014, if they actually were interchangeable before that, that is, which certainly isn't guaranteed. After 2014, even southern and eastern Ukraine soured on Russia, a process that significantly accelerated after the start of this year's war.

Much earlier. Somewhere between 15th and 19th century probably.
People who dig deeper into history can even get a sense of deja vu with current events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_People%27s_Republic

People generally don't like you killing their friends and family members, especially if you're the one who starts an unprovoked war of aggression. This isn't the US killing Japanese after Pearl Harbor, since Japanese understood quite well that the US had a right to be severely pissed off due to it being attacked by the Japanese. Russia had no comparable casus belli against Ukraine, and there was no need to invade the rest of Ukraine in order to protect the Donbass; simply occupying and annexing the Donbass itself would have done the job.

The core problem is that Russian propaganda has gotten very good at writing really tempting checks... that the rest of Russian state was consistently unable to cash, particularly to the people who trusted those to be worth something. Russia in Russian media is a much nicer and richer place than the Russia of reality, especially the parts away from Moscow and St.Petersburg, and let's not even get into the discount North Korea style separatist regions.

As for exit visas, I don't think that very many Russians actually want to leave Russia just yet. Though maybe this could eventually change. I don't know. If exit visas do return, though, I would expect Russia to demand foreign bribes and/or diploma taxes in exchange for allowing emigration. But I don't think that the overwhelming majority of Russians would actually want to emigrate.

Almost half of young Russians want to emigrate, Gallup poll says

Forty-four percent of Russians aged 15-29 want to emigrate as their economy stagnates, according to a survey by the pollster Gallup.

www.reuters.com

That's from even before the war, and that's the demographic group that matters the most.
As the squeeze of sanction keeps worsening i'd assume this will get only higher.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Because you rotate equipment...
Like, I have not heard ANYONE I know in SF say shit.

They're anon.

You get anon A or B saying their buddies here and there they know got the goods taken away to Ukraine.

Take it at face value or not at all until the day the army really needs them.

 

[Megadeath]

They're anon.

You get anon A or B saying their buddies here and there they know got the goods taken away to Ukraine.

Take it at face value or not at all until the day the army really needs them.

As a general rule second hand, vague and anonymous hearsay is quite possibly the least meaningful "evidence" you can have of anything. If anyone is willing to take that at face value, over the experience of people actually in the armed forces, they should PM me. I have several very lucrative opportunities they may be interested in.

 

[Arch Dornan]

As a general rule second hand, vague and anonymous hearsay is quite possibly the least meaningful "evidence" you can have of anything. If anyone is willing to take that at face value, over the experience of people actually in the armed forces, they should PM me. I have several very lucrative opportunities they may be interested in.

That's because if their identity is really revealed they will be fucked sideways violating all the non disclosure agreements.

 

[WolfBear]

Much earlier. Somewhere between 15th and 19th century probably.
People who dig deeper into history can even get a sense of deja vu with current events.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_People%27s_Republic

The core problem is that Russian propaganda has gotten very good at writing really tempting checks... that the rest of Russian state was consistently unable to cash, particularly to the people who trusted those to be worth something. Russia in Russian media is a much nicer and richer place than the Russia of reality, especially the parts away from Moscow and St.Petersburg, and let's not even get into the discount North Korea style separatist regions.

Almost half of young Russians want to emigrate, Gallup poll says

Forty-four percent of Russians aged 15-29 want to emigrate as their economy stagnates, according to a survey by the pollster Gallup.

www.reuters.com

That's from even before the war, and that's the demographic group that matters the most.
As the squeeze of sanction keeps worsening i'd assume this will get only higher.

Interesting. So, having open borders between the West and Russia would actually sound like a good idea just so long as security threats are kept out, no?

 

[History Learner]

Ah yes, cite the same singular reference as before, which has no actual known connection to actual production numbers, and treat it as indisputable proof of your position.

Except it provides the citations for those, explaining they came from a journalist who interviewed Ukrainian officials. Would you like to try again or provide your alternative evidence, or are we going to keep doing this song and dance of you making charges but never having the ability to back them up? You asked, I provided and now you're trying to goalpost shift.

So, what plant producing two million shells a year was this? What percentage of the annual Russian defense budget was spent just paying for those shells?

Plant(s) within Ukraine alone, up until 2014, were producing two million shells a year for the Russians. We have no data, to my knowledge of their domestic artillery production, other than the Ukrainians stating it was several times their own.

Where's a reference for Russia supposedly producing 50k shells a day? I sure haven't seen any sourcing on numbers like that, and before we start, no 'the Kremlin says so' or Russian state media says so isn't a reliable source.

The 50,000 figure was in reference to how many shells Russia has been shooting a day since at least the start of June; for someone willing to engage on this issue, it's remarkable how many basic facts you seem to not know or be informed upon but feel confidant enough to make statements on regardless. As for the Kremlin, how about you start with citing a single time I cited them and then let's move into you actually having to defend of your propositions with evidence.

 

[LordsFire]

Except it provides the citations for those, explaining they came from a journalist who interviewed Ukrainian officials. Would you like to try again or provide your alternative evidence, or are we going to keep doing this song and dance of you making charges but never having the ability to back them up? You asked, I provided and now you're trying to goalpost shift.

Ah. So a post on Twitter is an acceptable standard now then?



There we go. This post on Twitter says the Russians had 15 million shells in stockpile at the start of the war; case closed, point proven. The lovely provided graphic also demonstrates how long it's expected to take for the Russians to run through both their stockpile, and new production at full wartime levels, about 11 months.

It's been six months since the invasion started, so they have about five months left to win before they run the stockpiles dry, and that's not counting however many they've lost to all the ammunition dumps the Ukrainians have been hitting.

Given the current glacial pace of Russian advances, doesn't look like they're going to be able to win before they have to either seriously cut back on the pressure they're applying, or run out.

Edit: Now, to be clear, I don't know how reliable that 15 million number actually is. It might be accurate, it might not be, but if this is the standard of evidence, then it certainly fits a lot more to the point I made than what 'History Learner' is trying to claim.

 

[Captain X]

More unhappy Russian servicemen revealing what happened in those first few days of the war, and how horribly equipped/run the Russian military is.

Edit: Even worse, this unit was part of what happened in Bucha and Irpin.

I continue to not understand how anyone can continue to labor under the delusion that Russia is somehow the good guy in all of this.