Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Megadeath]

It literally took me 10 seconds to find the BBC article in question, which has their estimate based off their own research as of May 12th showing less than 2,500 Russian KIA. Maybe you should take the time to actually look up things before trying to argue on them, when it's clear you don't know anything?

I know how to read, which is apparently more than you.
"BBC Russian Service has established that the names of 2,336 Russian soldiers who died during the fighting in Ukraine have already been confirmed."
"The BBC bases its analysis only on reports containing specific information about the deceased, including the full name and rank"
"our list is clearly incomplete, and the real losses of the Russian army and the National Guard in Ukraine are higher."

They're not saying for a moment, even in the shitty, censored Russian website that only 2,336 Russians have been killed. They're saying that they can specifically and unequivocally identify that many, and that there are definitely more.

No, but that's precisely what you're suggesting in reverse lol.

If the Russians were in a Russian controlled area, why exactly where they attempting a river crossing and who exactly was shooting at them? Or, you know, it's exactly what I said and anybody putting more than five seconds of critical thinking into it would realize that; the Russians controlled one side of the river, the Ukies the other and the Russians did a combat crossing of it. Since both sides have AFVs, they naturally would be shooting at each other and take losses of the same. The destroyed vehicles in the video are quite clearly of both sides and even if wanted to ignore those with Ukie specific camo patterns and assign all of the vehicle losses to the Russians, the idea an entire BTG-or three, as someone else seriously suggested lol-was lost isn't consistent with less than two dozen vehicles seen in the video.

... I don't know if you're bad at English comprehension, or if you're just stupid. That the Russians controlled the side they started on, with the river being the "front" is specifically and exactly the case. But no, it wasn't contested at point blank range with armour from both sides literally intermingled. That is insane. Even commanders as monumentally stupid as the Russians have proven to have would not try to establish a pontoon bridge with enemies parked right on the other bank. Nor is there a plausible scenario whereby they build a bridge and then fighting happens such that some Ukrainian armour ends up driving over it to the other side. Did you learn everything you know about armed conflic from command and conquer?

The Russians tried to build a bridge over the river, and quickly get an armoured force to the other side, where they'd be able to achieve tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a nearby city. Thanks to the foolish decision of the Russian commander to pack his forces tightly at his end of the bridge for maximum speed, combined with Ukrainian drone support and probably foreign intelligence sharing, the Ukrainians were able to blow it all to hell with artillery and drone strikes, and only then mopped up what few forces made it across with their own armour. As anyone anybody putting more than five seconds of critical thinking into it would realise.

 

[Zachowon]

I know how to read, which is apparently more than you.
"BBC Russian Service has established that the names of 2,336 Russian soldiers who died during the fighting in Ukraine have already been confirmed."
"The BBC bases its analysis only on reports containing specific information about the deceased, including the full name and rank"
"our list is clearly incomplete, and the real losses of the Russian army and the National Guard in Ukraine are higher."

They're not saying for a moment, even in the shitty, censored Russian website that only 2,336 Russians have been killed. They're saying that they can specifically and unequivocally identify that many, and that there are definitely more.


... I don't know if you're bad at English comprehension, or if you're just stupid. That the Russians controlled the side they started on, with the river being the "front" is specifically and exactly the case. But no, it wasn't contested at point blank range with armour from both sides literally intermingled. That is insane. Even commanders as monumentally stupid as the Russians have proven to have would not try to establish a pontoon bridge with enemies parked right on the other bank. Nor is there a plausible scenario whereby they build a bridge and then fighting happens such that some Ukrainian armour ends up driving over it to the other side. Did you learn everything you know about armed conflic from command and conquer?

The Russians tried to build a bridge over the river, and quickly get an armoured force to the other side, where they'd be able to achieve tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a nearby city. Thanks to the foolish decision of the Russian commander to pack his forces tightly at his end of the bridge for maximum speed, combined with Ukrainian drone support and probably foreign intelligence sharing, the Ukrainians were able to blow it all to hell with artillery and drone strikes, and only then mopped up what few forces made it across with their own armour. As anyone anybody putting more than five seconds of critical thinking into it would realise.

Don't forget they attempted it.
Twice maybe even three times

 

[Sailor.X]

Posting this here

 

[Megadeath]

Don't forget they attempted it.
Twice maybe even three times

"If at first you don't succeed, try and try again. But with fewer forces, and in the certain knowledge you don't have the element of surprise." Truly, words to live and die by.

 

[GoldRanger]

The S-500 is meaningless, just like the T-14 is meaningless, just like the Su-57 is meaningless. The Russians are a paper bear.

 

[planefag]

Since both sides have AFVs, they naturally would be shooting at each other and take losses of the same. The destroyed vehicles in the video are quite clearly of both sides and even if wanted to ignore those with Ukie specific camo patterns and assign all of the vehicle losses to the Russians, the idea an entire BTG-or three, as someone else seriously suggested lol-was lost isn't consistent with less than two dozen vehicles seen in the video.

buckle up numbnuts







Here's the final count. 91 vehicles that have been visually confirmed... so far.

Explain that one away, shill.

 

[Zachowon]

buckle up numbnuts







Here's the final count. 91 vehicles that have been visually confirmed... so far.

Explain that one away, shill.

He is just gonna claim it was Ukrainians as well

 

[WolfBear]

A bit random, but here's an IQ map of Ukraine:

The Geography Of Ukraine\'s IQ

My attention was brought to the following map of Ukraine\'s IQ. I don\'t know the methodology behind it, but it seems to be based on what is not an uncommonly cited average (usually low to mid 90s) coupled with the results of the ZNO, which is the nationwide school-leaving exam in Ukraine...

www.unz.com

As a general rule, the more nationalistic parts of Ukraine are also the smarter parts of Ukraine.

 

[TheRejectionist]

A bit random, but here's an IQ map of Ukraine:

The Geography Of Ukraine\'s IQ

My attention was brought to the following map of Ukraine\'s IQ. I don\'t know the methodology behind it, but it seems to be based on what is not an uncommonly cited average (usually low to mid 90s) coupled with the results of the ZNO, which is the nationwide school-leaving exam in Ukraine...

www.unz.com

As a general rule, the more nationalistic parts of Ukraine are also the smarter parts of Ukraine.

You mean the same ones cleansed by Stepan Bandera and his ilk with the help of their slavemasters in Nazi Berlin?

 

[ATP]

You mean the same ones cleansed by Stepan Bandera and his ilk with the help of their slavemasters in Nazi Berlin?

It would be logical,smarter people manage to run and leave smarter children.
P.S about why USA actually helped Ukraine -
deep state made deal with kgbstan - support against China for Ukraine and controllong EU.Then Putin fucked it and attacked entire Ukraine.
Since then deep state decide to do smart thing and destroy Moscov,becouse state which could not be trusted to keep promises must be destroyed.

 

[Marduk]

It would be logical,smarter people manage to run and leave smarter children.
P.S about why USA actually helped Ukraine -
deep state made deal with kgbstan - support against China for Ukraine and controllong EU.Then Putin fucked it and attacked entire Ukraine.
Since then deep state decide to do smart thing and destroy Moscov,becouse state which could not be trusted to keep promises must be destroyed.

Those are just wild theories. For one USA was always less amenable towards Russia's expansionist moves than EU, specifically few leading countries of the EU - Germany, France, Italy. But even under Trump they weren't willing to press the EU too hard over that.
Secondly, now, with their poor showing against Ukraine, the value of Russia as potential ally against China has dropped dramatically.
Secondly, the idea of such alliance was taken skeptically in Washington even before the war.

The United States Should Not Align With Russia Against China

Authoritarians make bad allies—and Washington already has the stable and democratic friends it needs.

foreignpolicy.com

After all, Russia and China have something more than a deal, they have a shared interest in suppressing the world influence of US-NATO power. They both understand that. They also understand that both are willing to take heavy handed moves against each other and third parties alike, with all the global outrage it brings, so they are better off sticking together and screwing over third parties than trading serious, hard blow to each other with the rest of the world celebrating.
For now. This is eerily similar to 1940. Who will betray who first? Of course the west doesn't need to be begging here and trading favors for promises, if one decides to betray, its not going to require western begging to happen, its not going to have much influence on that decision.

 

[WolfBear]

You mean the same ones cleansed by Stepan Bandera and his ilk with the help of their slavemasters in Nazi Berlin?

They were cleansed of their Poles and Jews, not of their Ukrainians.

 

[ATP]

They were cleansed of their Poles and Jews, not of their Ukrainians.

And all other minorities plus those who saved them.Maybe even 30.000 ukrainians died,becouse they help or try to help their neighbours.

 

[WolfBear]

And all other minorities plus those who saved them.Maybe even 30.000 ukrainians died,becouse they help or try to help their neighbours.

Yes, but 30,000 Ukrainians dead wasn't enough to affect their average IQ figures considering that millions of Ukrainians lived there. Killing the Poles and Jews could have slightly affected their average IQ figures, of course, but the rest of Ukraine also saw a drastic reduction in the size of its Jewish population due to the Holocaust plus mass emigration in subsequent decades.

 

[WolfBear]

FWIW, here's a pretty cool website:

Візуалізація статистичних даних

Електоральна географія Електоральна географія найбільших міст Вибори Президента 2019 року у містах Президентські вибори 2014 року Президентські вибори 2004 року

datatowel.in.ua

It contains various statistical data for Ukraine, including in map form, and you can use Google Translate in order to understand what is being written on this website.

Here's one map from there:

The native language in various Ukrainian cities and towns in 2001:

The same map as above, only in terms of proportions of the total population in various Ukrainian cities and towns in 2001:

 

[WolfBear]

Here's a topographic map of Ukraine with the current front lines and with urban + suburban areas also being visible on this map:

As you can see, Russia failed to even conquer all of the Donbass yet. Though it's worth noting that the separatist-controlled part of the Donbass (the one that they controlled since 2014) is a type of "urban jungle", which is a part of the reason as to why exactly Ukraine failed to dislodge the Donbass separatists from there.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

Here's a topographic map of Ukraine with the current front lines and with urban + suburban areas also being visible on this map:

As you can see, Russia failed to even conquer all of the Donbass yet. Though it's worth noting that the separatist-controlled part of the Donbass (the one that they controlled since 2014) is a type of "urban jungle", which is a part of the reason as to why exactly Ukraine failed to dislodge the Donbass separatists from there.

The whole of donbass is a vast morass of fortified towns and trenches.

 

[WolfBear]

The whole of donbass is a vast morass of fortified towns and trenches.

Yep, and this is what Russian nationalist blogger Anatoly Karlin himself pointed out back in 2014. Specifically, that the core of the Donbass, such as Donetsk and Luhansk, is easier to defend than peripheral areas such as Sloviansk:

The Fall of Slavyansk - Anatoly Karlin

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): 1) The fall of Slavyansk is mainly a political problem, not a military one. In military terms, it is, if anything, a success, with Strelkov managing to successfully exfiltrate the great bulk of his forces from encirclement. 2) Donetsk has almost ten times...

akarlin.com

1) The fall of Slavyansk is mainly a political problem, not a military one. In military terms, it is, if anything, a success, with Strelkov managing to successfully exfiltrate the great bulk of his forces from encirclement.

2) Donetsk has almost ten times the population of (pre-war) Slavyansk. Having aquired the great bulk of its population during the 1930-1990 period, it is like most Soviet cities of this profile a veritable warren of massive concrete blocks. A further defensive “bonus” is that its population has dropped by almost 20% from its 1992 peak, so I assume this means it will be relatively easy to locate abandoned apartments to serve as bases, lookout stations, etc. The experience of Grozny shows the damage that even a pretty small band of motivated fighters with Kalashnikovs and RPGs can inflict on a poorly trained conscript force wading into a concrete metropolis, even if they have plentiful access to artillery and heavy armor. Look at the problems even the world’s most advanced COIN force, the US Army, had in Baghdad and Fallujah. Donetsk will not be an easy nut to crack; any attempt to do so will produce more casualties amongst the Ukrainian Army than the NAF (whereas the current ratio is about 2:3), and massive casualties amongst Donetsk civilians caught in the bombardments.

3) Cynical as it is, I strongly suspect that this is precisely the plan: To see thousands, maybe even tens of thousands, of civilians die, before mounting a humanitarian intervention that a) the West will find much more difficult to credibly condemn than would be the case if it were to be carried out now; b) will estrange even more future Novorossiyans from Kiev; and c) eat up a large chunk of Ukrainian armor and whatever still remains of its air force in the interim.

Alternatively, Poroshenko might realize this is a losing proposition, and return to the negotiating table… If the Maidan lets him (which it probably won’t).

4) Unlike certain more hot-blooded pro-Russian analysts, and Maidanists who are rushing to celebrate way too soon, I still see no credible argument that Putin has ditched the Donbass resistance. To the contrary, the lack of *direct* intervention is more likely just the product of a series of cold calculations that show it more likely to be effective in a few months than today, when: a) The Ukrainian Army has become weaker and more demoralized; b) Photos of bisected, bloodied, and burnt corpses have been filling the Russian and international airwaves for a few months; c) The resolve of the West and its unity are weaker; d) The Russian economy is more prepared for any sanctions that are forthcoming; and e) Austerity is biting Ukraine hard, and (gas-less) winter is coming. Too bad that it is the residents of Donetsk who will be playing the blood price for this.

 

[WolfBear]

Ukraine war: US fully backs Sweden and Finland Nato bids, Biden says

Both countries submitted their applications to be part of the Western defence alliance this week.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Husky_Khan]

Wow overreaction much?

The guy should be given a Medal for not capturing Kharkov. Imagine what a quagmire would've resulted if the they were capturing Kharkov during the feint and then having to extricate themselves when the real Battle for the Donbass began. But he restrained his elite troops and fixed the Ukrainians in place instead.

Not to mention the lives saved, not only from urban Warfare but by not capturing Kharkov, Ukraine wouldn't be able to kill thousands of their own people and blame it on the Russians like in Bucha and Mariupol.

He's getting railroaded harder then Admiral Kimmel after Pearl Harbor for executing a feint attack perfectly.

The less said about the Moskva the better. It was an obsolete warship. Ukrainians didn't even hit it and when it sank to poor weather no one apparently died. Keep in mind there's less then thirty people reported missing from the crew and they're likely deserters like the cowardly son of that one Dad who says his boy was a conscripted Cook on board the cruiser.