Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Agent23

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They are more into changing headlines rather than deleting articles or even editing them.
It is from a Russian language article, so you can search for it there.
Also, since the primary source of money for the Guardian is BBC company-sponsored employee subscriptions I am pretty sure whatever shit that particular paper produces in the morning is on the BBC homepage around noon.
 

Agent23

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"We're awesome because Russian logistics suck".....not sure how that works here.

And generally, while I'm sure the Ukrainians are overstating thier success, much like literally every country in every war ever fought in the history of mankind, by any objective measure they have actually done a very impressive job thus far. No one expected they would even still in the fight after a month, let alone still fighting and beating back the Russia advance toward Kyiv, to highlight thier most recent win.
Dude, it was a holding operation, 40k people was not enough to take a city of 3 million.
 

Battlegrinder

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Dude, it was a holding operation, 40k people was not enough to take a city of 3 million.

Suuuuure
it was. Russia's trying to take Kharkiv, a city about half that size, with about 50k troops as far as I can tell, so they seem to think having their troops outnumbered 30 to 1 by the locals is manageable. But 60 to one, that's sheer madness, they would never be able to do that and all the trained analysts who said otherwise are just nuts or something.
 

Agent23

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Suuuuure it was. Russia's trying to take Kharkiv, a city about half that size, with about 50k troops as far as I can tell, so they seem to think having their troops outnumbered 30 to 1 by the locals is manageable. But 60 to one, that's sheer madness, they would never be able to do that and all the trained analysts who said otherwise are just nuts or something.
Scott Ritter already explained it, and he actually knows his stuff, unlike a bunch of Internet nerds like us.
According to him the idea is to fragment the enemy army, pin parts of it and destroy it piece by piece.
If there is too much interference in one area, pull back and hit another.
Meanwhile also degrade the enemy's war-making abilities.
That the Russians have done, most of the real fighting has been going on in the east.
If you don't want to hear what he says and if you believe in the MSM/Ukrainian spam then that is your choice.
 

Battlegrinder

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Scott Ritter already explained it, and he actually knows his stuff, unlike a bunch of Internet nerds like us.
If you don't want to hear what he says and if you believe in the MSM/Ukrainian spam then that is your choice.

By Scott Ritter, you mean Scott Ritter the convicted juvenile sex offender that hasn't been in the military since the mid 90s, hasn't worked in the intelligence field since the late 90s, and is currently running around claiming that reported war crimes in Ukraine were actually done by Ukraine and are being falsely pinned on Russia (who's media he works for, BTW)?

If the quality of thier troops is in line with the quality of people Russia brought onboard for their propaganda campaign, no wonder they're losing.
 

Agent23

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By Scott Ritter, you mean Scott Ritter the convicted juvenile sex offender that hasn't been in the military since the mid 90s, hasn't worked in the intelligence field since the late 90s, and is currently running around claiming that reported war crimes in Ukraine were actually done by Ukraine and are being falsely pinned on Russia (who's media he works for, BTW)?

If the quality of thier troops is in line with the quality of people Russia brought onboard for their propaganda campaign, no wonder they're losing.
Yeah, I am sure that the fact he was a problem for some higher ups didn't have anything to do with him getting in a honeypot trap.Especially since he called out the CIA for trying to use the UN weapons inspections in Iraq as cover.

Tell you what, why don't you actually research the various Russian combat doctrines and their military history, then do a word by word rebuttal of his stuff.
Because he is still a military intelligence officer with decades of experience with his focus being the Soviet Union and Russia, which makes him more qualified than people who have been playing shoot the taliban for the past 20 years without any success, a former UN weapons inspector, etc.
You are not.
So I believe him over you.
 

WolfBear

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Russian officials reportedly state they have experienced "significant losses of troops" and it's "huge tragedy."



Video allegedly from Mariupol showing a Ukranian BTR-4 engaging Russian tanks with it's autocannon and offering 30mm suppositories.



Another Russian IED found...



Alleged Russian Nazi captured masquerading as a DeNazifier or whatever.



United Nations removed Russia from the Human Rights Council with a vote of 93-24. Russia responded they're leaving the Human Rights Council, so there!



Why didn't Russia conquer Mariupol back in the summer of 2014 when it was easier for it to do this?
 

Husky_Khan

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lol he weaseled out of the first pedo accusation by stating it was the mean ol' Bush Administration framing him because he's too honest and courageous.

His second oopsie occurred when no one gave a fuck. Dudes a gaslighting child predator who hasn't been relevant in anything close to military or intelligence affairs since the mid-90:s. He's about as reliable a source as any other dude. Him being an ex-Marine makes him as qualified an expert as like a million other people.

Reliability though he's worse due to the Russian affiliations and kneejerk apologism and years of gaslighting to attempt to hide his child sexual predatory behavior. And the fact even when he was in service he was responsible for intelligence failures as he's admitted and denied depending on the current script.
 

Battlegrinder

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Yeah, I am sure that the fact he was a problem for some higher ups didn't have anything to do with him getting in a honeypot trap.Especially since he called out the CIA for trying to use the UN weapons inspections in Iraq as cover.

Well, no, the fact that he hasn't been in the game for more than 20 years and works for Russian state media is why he shouldn't be trusted. The fact he tried to sleep with a teenage girl, got caught, and then tried it again and got caught again is just another reason to have doubts about his judgement, moral character, and critical reasoning skills.

Tell you what, why don't you actually research the various Russian combat doctrines and their military history, then do a word by word rebuttal of his stuff.

Because you would believe me if I did? Given the only person in this thread that has any military experience is Zach, and you don't believe him when he makes claims, nor do you believe Planefag or any other self taught analyst that posts here (or at least none of the ones that doubt Russia's abilities), I don't think acquiring any particular expertise here would be helpful in convincing.

Because he is still a military intelligence officer with decades of experience with his focus being the Soviet Union and Russia, which makes him more qualified than people who have been playing shoot the taliban for the past 20 years without any success, a former UN weapons inspector, etc.
You are not.
So I believe him over you.

Per wikipedia, he was heavily involved in studing the middle east and the Iran-Iraq war so he should be an expert on the region, and yet when asked for his opinion on the US vs the 2003 era Iraqi military, he said this:

"The United States is going to leave Iraq with its tail between its legs, defeated. It is a war we can not win ... We do not have the military means to take over Baghdad and for this reason I believe the defeat of the United States in this war is inevitable ... Every time we confront Iraqi troops we may win some tactical battles, as we did for ten years in Vietnam, but we will not be able to win this war, which in my opinion is already lost,"

Which, uh....didn't happen in any capacity, we crushed the Iraqi army at every turn, tactically and strategically. Furthermore, he said this with the benefit of hindsight from the Gulf War, where we had also easily crushed the Iraqi military, and he still got it wrong.


And then there's the whole "Russian war crimes in Ukraine are a false flag" thing of his. To my knowledge, the "kill your own civilians and blame it on your enemy" is a Hollywood fiction, it has never actually happened in reality, and claim it did, in a country that is probably under more surveillance and intelligence than anywhere on earth at the moment, is a transparently insane claim.
 

Agent23

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Because you would believe me if I did? Given the only person in this thread that has any military experience is Zach, and you don't believe him when he makes claims, nor do you believe Planefag or any other self taught analyst that posts here (or at least none of the ones that doubt Russia's abilities), I don't think acquiring any particular expertise here would be helpful in convincing.
TBH I see Zach as some form of diversity hire in a military that has lost much of its appeal and is very demoralized due to the 20 years of forever wars, and consequently lacks recruits and is devouered from the inside by war profiteering and political correctness.

Also, Ritter focus was on the USSR in central Asia as per

s. In 1980, he served in the US Army as a private. Then, in May 1984, he was commissioned as an intelligence officer in the United States Marine Corps. He served in this capacity for about 12 years.[5] He served as the lead analyst for the Marine Corps Rapid Deployment Force concerning the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iran–Iraq War. Ritter's academic work focused on the Basmachi resistance movement in Soviet Central Asia during the 1920s and 1930s, and on the Basmachi commanders Fazail Maksum and Ibrahim Bek.[6][7] During Desert Storm, he served as a ballistic missile advisor to General Norman Schwarzkopf.

Furthermore, he was active military at a time when your primary enemy was the USSR, not a bunch of bronze age religious zealots with AK-47s in the Middle East.

So, yeah, I think he is far more qualified to give opinions on stuff than a dumb-ass like Zach who thought that the Russians were really using unencrypted radios.
See @Chiron s postings on the subject.
 

Battlegrinder

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Furthermore, he was active military at a time when your primary enemy was the USSR, not a bunch of bronze age religious zealots with AK-47s in the Middle East.

And a fat lot of good that experience seems to have served him.

So, yeah, I think he is far more qualified to give opinions on stuff than a dumb-ass like Zach who thought that the Russians were really using unencrypted radios.
See @Chiron s postings on the subject.

"Don't listen to the actual military intel guy, listen to the guy who's only knowledge comes from reposting twitter posts from random dudes, and who's been predicting the war is nearly over and Ukraine is on the verge of defeat since the war started"......yeah, no.
 

Agent23

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And a fat lot of good that experience seems to have served him.



"Don't listen to the actual military intel guy, listen to the guy who's only knowledge comes from reposting twitter posts from random dudes, and who's been predicting the war is nearly over and Ukraine is on the verge of defeat since the war started"......yeah, no.
If I have to choose between the opinions of two randos on the interwebz I'd choose that of the one that can actually spell.

If I have to choose between two military officers I'd choose the one that was trained and saw active service before the particular army became a politically correct, demoralized, and unpopular mess.
 

Battlegrinder

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If I have to choose between two military officers I'd choose the one that was trained and saw active service before the particular army became a politically correct, demoralized, and unpopular mess.

Conveniently, you don't have to choose between two, there are loads and loads of military analysts out there. Which suggests that the fact you've fixated on the guy who's been out the field for decades and has been wrong on major policy questions repeatedly for reasons unrelated to when he was in service, since there are loads of guys his age who correctly determined we would easily curbstomp the Iraqi army. You've clearly picked Scott on the basis of some other factor.

For example, the fact that he works for Russia Today and pushes Russian propaganda regardless of how believable or plausible it is.
 
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Chiron

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And a fat lot of good that experience seems to have served him.

He won his war, he did exactly what G.H.W. Bush told him to do and liberated Kuwait. Zachowon failed to win his war.

"Don't listen to the actual military intel guy, listen to the guy who's only knowledge comes from reposting twitter posts from random dudes, and who's been predicting the war is nearly over and Ukraine is on the verge of defeat since the war started"......yeah, no.

The war is practically over. Ukraine's military and industry is broken. The only choice they have is an honorable peace, ceding Kherson Oblast, most of Zapohrizia Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Luhansk, in return for having Russia leave Kharkiv Oblast. They keep Odessa Port, their main industrial cities and ore regions, and can get their farmers out to plant and bring the refugees home. Its a good deal and Putin would likely sign it over the objections of the Duma. He walks away with a clear victory, and Ukraine stays functionally intact.

The other option is to die as martyrs, immolating the country as Putin takes his time to work the nation over and drive millions more west as refugees, causing more economic damage to the EU which stripped itself bare of its reserve stocks to send aid. Given the EU is already fracturing from dealing with Covid, the longer the war lasts, the faster they crumble.

Your inability to understand how Russia fights and wins wars is not my problem. If Zachowon can't be bothered to read publications on the Soviet Based Doctrine the US Army made in the late 80s, that is on him. People like Armchair Warrior will beat on him, because people like Zachowon lose wars.

I was clear from the beginning that Kyiv was a double feint, it was quite obvious just from the Terrain and the forces allocated to it vs the South. There was also every indication Russia was employing encrypted radios and satellite uplinks, from photos, and the tendency of Ukraine to claim they killed a General only for them to show back up alive later. Russia also deployed large numbers of decoys, including inflatable trucks to create the infamous convoy which they moved around with a mixture of real trucks.

Oh and remember all those UkA commandoes in the first 2 weeks posting tiktoks? Disappeared after 2 weeks because they were essentially light infantry up against roving mechanized kill teams that fixed them in place and pounded them.

Note the Russians easily broke contact and withdrew in good order and entrained to Donbass and Kharkiv Front where they are once again in combat, without the UkA being aware of it or able to pursue. They were able to do that because the UkA lost the bulk of its AFVs and artillery, the majority of their fuel, an the bulk of their ammo. Their commandoes suffered unsustainable causalities attacking Russian Convoys, and civilian insurgents got shredded. Now the UkA in the north is a largely immobile force with technicals, an odd AFV or two, and little artillery that has little ability to move during the day and at the mercy of Russian Night Aviation if they travel in too large of a convoy. They are thus unable to help in any way with regards to the south.

Russia on the other hand can move freely during the day, and pound all day and night with artillery without having to worry about counterfires or CAS very much. With is a massive firepower advantage the Ukrainians can't counter.

Also the final clue about Kyiv not being the focus is Russia simply not having set up collaborators or sent the victory flags to V and O groups. Troops in the North were allowed to loot unlike in the south where it would be bad for business.

If none of that makes sense to you, well it does to the Russians who win wars and have a long tradition of warfare that is unique to them and works.
 

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