Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Vaermina]

How much Russia potash was needed for the end product.
Michigan Potash Stands to Replace Russian Potash Fertilizer Imports (prnewswire.com)

The headline of course is misleading:

Some company claiming it could replace the Russians in 3.5 years. Assuming that is accurate it would still take 3 and a half years to replace the 96% of imported potash. I highly doubt that the remaining international supply will come to the US to make up the 1 million ton difference in the meantime.

So yeah, expect the next 3.5 years to be pretty rough.

Er... That's inaccurate...

Long story short, the US imports 93% of it's potash, but only 12% of that comes from Russia and Belarus, the majority 83% comes from Canada.

 

[Chiron]

Ukraine’s Best Tank Brigade Has Won The Battle For Chernihiv

archived 2 Apr 2022 09:05:12 UTC

archive.ph

Surrounded in Chernihiv for a month and with half its equipment destroyed before Russia withdrew as verified by multiple Drone Videos released by RuA MoD. Some victory given North West Ukraine was a double feint that did its job. Especially as it can't move freely in the day due to Russian Air Dominance. Also Gen. Vitaliy Gerasimov was reported killed near Kharkiv by UkA, and is still alive. Russia has not reported him dead. Nor is he the only General who showed up alive. Rule of thumb, if Russia doesn't announce their death with a public funeral, their alive.

Also Russian losses are less than 6k causalities not counting DPR/LPR which adds another 1k.

Given Kherson was home to 7 Brigades and routed on the first day, and Mariupol had 15,000 troops trapped in it and less than 2,000 of them remain and fading fast, UkA losses are easily in the range of 50k to 75k causalities despite growing its forces 4 times their starting size.

Factoring in strategic losses, Ukraine has lost 3 million people as refugees, and 2 million more are in occupied Russian territories, excluding the Crimea and LPR/DPR from the equation. The mathematics are swinging decisively towards Russia in the metric that matters in a force on force fight, which is firepower. Russia has the tanks, the artillery, and airpower and with the close out of the double feints, the mobile reserves to take and secure the Donbass.

If UkA wants to grind up their troops in an artillery dominated battlefield where Russia has air superiority, that is their affair.

And if this confuses the fuck out of you, read Russian and Soviet Military Doctrine, because they see war entirely differently and have their own way of doing things.

 

[Chiron]

Greeks came to Michigan to get the fuck away from the Balkans and yet the slavs followed us fml

I'm half Irish and half Hispanic. Muslim by religion, and Holland Native.

 

[Chiron]

Er... That's inaccurate...

Long story short, the US imports 93% of it's potash, but only 12% of that comes from Russia and Belarus, the majority 83% comes from Canada.

12% loss is a big fucking deal and can mean the difference of spending 1 week of salary to eat the entire month or eat just one week. The nation is already reeling from inflation due to Covid-19 and with the disruptions to global supply their is no guarantee Canada whose truckers are honking, will be able to export Potash, especially when US truckers are also honking.

Hungry people overthrow governments, and the Army typically lets them do so as that is a breaking of the most fundamental social contract a government has, which is to feed the masses.

 

[Vaermina]

12% loss is a big fucking deal and can mean the difference of spending 1 week of salary to eat the entire month or eat just one week. The nation is already reeling from inflation due to Covid-19 and with the disruptions to global supply their is no guarantee Canada whose truckers are honking, will be able to export Potash, especially when US truckers are also honking.

Hungry people overthrow governments, and the Army typically lets them do so as that is a breaking of the most fundamental social contract a government has, which is to feed the masses.

Actually 12% is nothing, and can be made up by simply restarting Michigan production or Canada slightly increasing production.

 

[planefag]

Surrounded in Chernihiv for a month and with half its equipment destroyed before Russia withdrew as verified by multiple Drone Videos released by RuA MoD.

The Ukrainian 1st Tank Regiment has three tank battalions and a mechanized infantry battalion. The mechanized infantry will have three companies with eleven BMPs each, not counting the vehicles assigned to their various support platoons/companies. The tank battalions will have 31 tanks each. That equals 33 BMPs and 93 T-64s, plus one or two for command vehicles. Please show me these RuA MoD drone videos confirming the destruction of ~63~ odd BMPs and T-64s in the Chernihiv region or shut the fuck up.

And if this confuses the fuck out of you, read Russian and Soviet Military Doctrine, because they see war entirely differently and have their own way of doing things.

Yeah, I noticed. Their way of doing things seems to involve spreading out their forces on multiple axes of advance, failing to employ SEAD/DEAD worth a fuck, zooming around attempting blyatkrieg tactics against an enemy that is not only defending in depth but knows exactly where they are because they're relying on fucking unsecured civilian fucking radios and eventually running for home with their tails between their legs as they leave countless dead soldiers and a wealth of abandoned equipment behind in enemy territory.

The only thing I'm confused about is where you get these claims you pull clear out of your fucking ass, and why you expect anyone to believe them with nothing in the way of evidence provided. You have a cite for that "Europe only has 35 days of gas" horseshit you keep repeating, for instance? Do share with the class.

 

[planefag]

Canada whose truckers are honking, will be able to export Potash, especially when US truckers are also honking.

I can literally hear the RT.com soundbytes about "the deep divisions within the Enemy Ranks" coming through your posts.

 

[Vaermina]

Also Russian losses are less than 6k causalities not counting DPR/LPR which adds another 1k.

Given Kherson was home to 7 Brigades and routed on the first day, and Mariupol had 15,000 troops trapped in it and less than 2,000 of them remain and fading fast, UkA losses are easily in the range of 50k to 75k causalities despite growing its forces 4 times their starting size.

Mariupol only had about 4,500 troops.

And Kherson held out for a week, and it was only protected by the 59th motorized brigade, which then successfully retreated to Mykolaiv, where upon it has continued to hold off Russia's advance since.

 

[Chiron]

The Ukrainian 1st Tank Regiment has three tank battalions and a mechanized infantry battalion. The mechanized infantry will have three companies with eleven BMPs each, not counting the vehicles assigned to their various support platoons/companies. The tank battalions will have 31 tanks each. That equals 33 BMPs and 93 T-64s, plus one or two for command vehicles. Please show me these RuA MoD drone videos confirming the destruction of ~63~ odd BMPs and T-64s in the Chernihiv region or shut the fuck up.

I posted them way back, you refused to watch them on Telegram as you did not want to download the app on your phone. Those were your words. If you don't want to use Mash, Telegram, etc where Russia posts its stuff due to censorship on Western Platforms, you don't get to turn around and say I did not post sources.

Yeah, I noticed. Their way of doing things seems to involve spreading out their forces on multiple axes of advance, failing to employ SEAD/DEAD worth a fuck, zooming around attempting blyatkrieg tactics against an enemy that is not only defending in depth but knows exactly where they are because they're relying on fucking unsecured civilian fucking radios and eventually running for home with their tails between their legs as they leave countless dead soldiers and a wealth of abandoned equipment behind in enemy territory.

And they overran the South, the economic heartland of Ukraine, caused the entire civilian economy to collapse, destroyed the UkA military industry, reduced them to moving at night, and got UkA to commit its mobile reserves to defend their capital instead of preventing the encirclement of Mariupol or stopping the Kherson Lodgment while it was weakly held.

SEAD, Ukraine isn't Iraq, its a peer competitor to Russia with the same base doctrine and technology. So they will be scooting all over the place to avoid destruction like Serbia did. Even then they can't really stop the Russian Airstrikes which generally are able to hit what they want and operate openly during the day. Nor have they been able to sweep Russian Drones out of the sky. Given the Circumstances, the UkA air defense is doing everything right it can, its just not enough.

The only thing I'm confused about is where you get these claims you pull clear out of your fucking ass, and why you expect anyone to believe them with nothing in the way of evidence provided. You have a cite for that "Europe only has 35 days of gas" horseshit you keep repeating, for instance? Do share with the class.

Posted several days ago when the EU announced its diesel levels.

Pay a fucking attention.

Mariupol only had about 4,500 troops.

And Kherson held out for a week, and it was only protected by the 59th motorized brigade, which then successfully retreated to Mykolaiv, where upon it has continued to hold off Russia's advance since.

Oh for fuck's sake the UkA OOB is on fucking Wikipedia, a quick cut and paste as I not bulleting this. All of these units are effectively destroyed. Their bases overran. Also Mariupol had a large number of men from other units retreat to it and raised Territorial Troops for defense. But since you like Planefag drink your Kool-Aid, I can't help you.

56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade (MU А0989), Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast
57th Motorized Infantry Brigade 'Kosh otaman Kost Hordiyenko' (MU В4533), Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast
Territorial Defence Zone of the Kherson Oblast
18th Rifle Battalion
124th 'Kherson' Territorial Defence Brigade (cadred)(MU А7053)
Naval Base "East" (also designated Military Installation Nr. 90) (MU А3130), Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Mariupol, Mariupol Oblast
9th Surface Ships Detachment
Platoon for Combat against Underwater Incursion Forces and Devices Berdyansk
Platoon for Combat against Underwater Incursion Forces and Devices Mariupol
21st Radar Company
Security Company of Naval Base "East"
501st Marine Infantry Battalion (MU А1965), Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
503rd Marine Infantry Battalion (MU А1275), Mariupol, Mariupol Oblast (could possibly expand into a new marine infantry brigade)
66th Field Artillery Battalion Battalion (MU А2611), Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
140th Reconnaissance Battalion (MU А0878), Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast
241st Combined Arms Training Grounds "Oleshivsky Sands" of the Marine Infantry Command (MU А2407), Radensk village, Kherson Oblast
Kherson Zonal Unit (AOR: Kherson Oblast), Kherson, Kherson Oblast
2nd Patrol Battalion, Melitopol
3rd Patrol Battalion, Berdiansk
4th Patrol Battalion, Enerhodar
16th National Guard Battalion, Kherson
18th Operational Regiment (Reinforced), Mariupol
Regimental HQ
1st Patrol Battalion
2nd Special Purpose Battalion "Donbas", Mariupol
Special Purpose Reinforced Battalion "Azov", Mariupol
Special Patrol Company, Mariupol
Support Company
Mariupol Sea Guard detachment
Azov-Black Sea Region (Simferopol), reorganized due to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea
Simferopol border detachment (moved to Kherson)
Berdiansk border detachment
Kerch Sea Guard detachment (moved to Mariupol)
Kerch Squad of Marine Security (from the Cape of Mehanom across the strait of Kerch and the Sea of Azov to administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions)
Yalta Squad of Marine Security (special assignment)
61st Military Hospital (MU А0318), Mariupol, Mariupol Oblast
150th Center for Maintenance and Storage of Medical Equipment (MU А1209), Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
299th Tactical Aviation Brigade (Ground Attack) "Lt.-Gen. Vasil' Nikiforov", Kulbakino Air Base (Su-25, Su-25UB, L-39C) though since recaptured, the base was destroyed.
25th Transport Aviation Brigade, Melitopol Air Base (An-26, Il-76MD)
208th Anti-aircraft Missile Brigade, Kherson (S-300PS)
Radio-technical Battalion, Kherson
2323rd Radio-technical Battalion, Mariupol

 

[Chiron]

Actually 12% is nothing, and can be made up by simply restarting Michigan production or Canada slightly increasing production.

3.5 years to kick it up if everything goes right. It takes five years to get a new gas line or oil rig running and producing due to planning, building the physical plants, and arranging the shipping.

I can literally hear the RT.com soundbytes about "the deep divisions within the Enemy Ranks" coming through your posts.

Yeah lets ignore the low level civil war the EU nd US have been in since 2020 with Covid lockdowns and government assaults on our liberties well before Putin saw his chance.

 

[Vaermina]

3.5 years to kick it up if everything goes right. It takes five years to get a new gas line or oil rig running and producing due to planning, building the physical plants, and arranging the shipping.

Maybe you could actually read what was written?

It was 3.5 years to replace ALL the imports, not the 12% gotten from Russia.

 

[Vaermina]

Oh for fuck's sake the UkA OOB is on fucking Wikipedia, a quick cut and paste as I not bulleting this.

No, that's literally just you making stuff up.

Here's the actual Wikipedia pages.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kherson

 

[PsihoKekec]

although the 29 was able to easily destroy an Abrams in Iraq on the few occasions it was used.

Most cases of RPG-29 supposedly knocking out Iraqi Abrams tanks were actually M79 Osa launchers

That equals 33 BMPs and 93 T-64s, plus one or two for command vehicles.

1st and 17th armored brigades turned to 4 tank platoons, 14 tank companies, which would put them up to 132 tanks + brigade command element, but there is talk that there were simply not enough tanks and crews to make the full transition so most companies of brigade are using two platoons + command element, so before the war they were above the old authorised strength and below the new authorised strength. To make everything more complex, before the war vehicles and crews were sometimes seconded to units deploying to Donbass frontline.
I reckon once the war ends the debates on actual force composition of 1st (and other units) will be thankful subject for historians.

 

[Chiron]

No, that's literally just you making stuff up.

Here's the actual Wikipedia pages.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kherson

And I posted way back video evidence of Ukrainian Bases in Kherson Overran with Barracks destroyed.

And the Russians have taken hundreds of prisoners in Mariupol, posted the videos to Telegram and stacked up the bodies. Again posted well back.

Ukraine has repeatably and demonstrably lied multiple times and been caught in those lies. Going all the fucking way back to the Antonov Airbase Battle which they were defeated in and unable to take back till it was abandoned. Russia has been posting it reports on telegram and mash, social media sites that don't censor their content.

If you don't want to view those sources, fine, but don't accuse me of making shit up.

Also on these battles, the Wikipedia Articles rely exclusively on western sources and taken UkA claims at face value. Such as having Konotop under Russian control when the Russians never claimed to have taken it, and simply bypassed it after the Mayor refused to surrender. Plus repeating known Ukrainian lies that have since been debunked.

Know what believe what you want to believe.

 

[Agent23]

12% loss is a big fucking deal and can mean the difference of spending 1 week of salary to eat the entire month or eat just one week. The nation is already reeling from inflation due to Covid-19 and with the disruptions to global supply their is no guarantee Canada whose truckers are honking, will be able to export Potash, especially when US truckers are also honking.

Hungry people overthrow governments, and the Army typically lets them do so as that is a breaking of the most fundamental social contract a government has, which is to feed the masses.

German Retailers to Increase Food Prices by 20-50% on Monday as Mass Inflation Hits | Just days after Germany reported the highest inflation in generation (with February headline CPI soaring at a 7.6% annual pace and blowing away all expectations), giving locals a distinctly unpleasant deja vu feeling even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine broke what few supply chains remained and sent prices even higher into the stratosphere… … on Monday,
And this is just after one month, the human garbage at the Fed and the ECB is still printing and interest rates are still at zero.
40% of world potash is now restricted or in doubt.
Canada will not be able to make up for that before the end of the next planting season, even if everything there was going smoothly and they weren't being run by a total retard.

 

[paulobrito]

These 3.5 years are to produce enough fertilizers for internal consumption / AKA only for the US needs. In no way is it for replacing the Russia+Bielorussia exports worldwide.

 

[ATP]

Dying for an oligarch's puppet ?

No,to not be under Russia boot.Putin is richest oligarch in the world,and Russia is ruled by KGB mafias.
Even i would be fighting if i lived there,and i am pole who remember UPA crimes.
Besides,ukrainians thanks to war becomed real nation now.Even resident of Charków who would welcome Putin in 2014 are fighting now.

 

[ATP]

Kids don't do drugs.


Comrades, don't steal Iran's Nasheeds. They need them.



Looks like there are still Comrades in Germany, but you weren't suppose to bring out the Soviet Flags yet.



A UkA position so utterly destroyed that bodies were disintegrated, buried under the shifting sand, and thrown all over.



This war can only go one way from this point on, UkA no longer has the capability to field armored corps with which to survive an artillery barrage long enough to close to contact and can no longer meaningfully contest the sky to allow major concentrations to form up. Therefore this war is now artillery centric. UkA can send its troops in, but they won't survive the attentions of the Comrades in the Artillery Branch.

1.Tortured prisoner said that he murdered cyvilians on drugs.I do not blame him,if i was in Putin hands i would said that,too.
BUT,LET ASSUME THAT IT IS TRUE - YOUR IDOLS COULD NOT TAKE CITY FROM DRUGGED THUGS

2.Germans support kgbstan.Of course they do that,they are Putin allies.They must hide it as long as Putin is loosing and keep genociding,but they still support kgbstan.

3.Ukraine have no mechanized army,and russian artillery destroy them.
Well,why russian do not destroy them now and take Kiev?
And,winning with artillery mean,THAT YOU HAVE NO GOOD ARMY.

I work for a living, running a thousand different Twitter Accounts, much less checking them take more time in a day than I have.

Moving on:



O Group continues to disband and shift to the decisive fields. Chernihiv is now falling back, leaving the E101 group the last to pull out. After which there will be Square Z and Z groups with respective X groups in support. Due to the flooding, Izium breathrough is now going to the rail hub of Barvinkove instead of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Seizing this spot cuts the rail access to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Also the remaining UkA forces in northern Luhansk are gone after no resupply. Most likely an under the table deal in which they leave and get exchanged.

How badly bungled UkA's retreat from Volnovakha was.


Artillery wins wars Comrades. Putting the place back to together, that is your job Comrades, we just fling shells.

I blame the idiot who sent you out without proper instructions.



UkA Wrecks still litter Volnovakha, Russians told UkA farmers they can haul away the hulks and scrap them, but no takers.



Cleanup in Mariupol continues now that the factory complex has been cleared, the deep center and port where UkA marines are making their final stand, remain to be secured. Deep center is mainly Territorials with a cadre of Air Mobile Troopers to stiffen them. Estimate less than 2,000 defenders remain, any Azov members still alive are likely those who didn't tattoo themselves and had some buddies quickly give them new Military ID so they aren't wasted.





90% percent of Russian Tanks were taken out by artillery shells. 4% in direct fires with UkA AFVs, 3% via infantry weapons, and direct air attacks rounding out the rest.

If anything this war empathizes the power of artillery married with attached drones to direct laser guided munitions on both sides. Attaching drones to platoons of tanks has been enabling Tank Platoons to spot and destroy the Infantry AT teams, spot their firing locations, evade ATGMs in flight when out of their hatches, or button up so they can use active defenses.

A lot of this is being driven by the troops on the ground themselves without Higher Sanction which as long as they are getting results will simply let it slide and make it official policy.

1.Kgbstan have very nice plans,i agree.But,before they planned end war till 6.3.22.Why do you think,that they would fare better this time ?
2.Artillery wins war - which mean,that kgbstan have no good troops,if they must rely on it to win.
3.According to info from Volnovakha,they are fighting nazis,not soldiers there.So,they could not beat some nazis?
and farmers take russian wrecks,becouse kgbstan let them.Suuure.
4.Azow battalion is part of regular army,so killing prisoners from them is warcrime.Russians should think about their prisoners - consprict would be safe,but fsb units and officers....
5.Javelins do not work,becouse russian told you that 90% of tanks they lost to artillery.Do you truly belive that shit?

 

[TheRejectionist]

No,to not be under Russia boot.Putin is richest oligarch in the world,and Russia is ruled by KGB mafias.
Even i would be fighting if i lived there,and i am pole who remember UPA crimes.
Besides,ukrainians thanks to war becomed real nation now.Even resident of Charków who would welcome Putin in 2014 are fighting now.

So that they can be under Germany/European/American boot?

Your country is ruled by oligarchs.

My countries are ruled by oligarchs.

Hell, most of the world is RULED by oligarchs.

 

[paulobrito]

No,to not be under Russia boot.Putin is richest oligarch in the world,and Russia is ruled by KGB mafias.
Even i would be fighting if i lived there,and i am pole who remember UPA crimes.
Besides,ukrainians thanks to war becomed real nation now.Even resident of Charków who would welcome Putin in 2014 are fighting now.

Meh, many of the American oligarchs - oh, excuse-me me, billionaires - are way richer than Putin or any Russian oligarch.