Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Ukrainian TV channel Espresso published this video with "many civilians killed by russians on the roadside". Now pay a closer look to "dead" body on the right.


Dirty spot on the windshield briefly visible because it's lighter-colored and it moves over something darker in the background - the jacket on the dead man.

Talk about desperate fucking cope. This is almost as pathetic as that "LOOK THEY'RE STILL FILMING EVEN AS THE GUY PLAYING A DEAD PERSON JUMPS UP IN THE BACKGROUND AND DANCES THE FUCKING MACARENA!" shit you morons were circlejerking over a few weeks back. At this rate you're going to be posting lectures on how Ukrainian skull anatomy proves they're not true slavs and have smaller brains and are thus incapable of advanced thought, and so all Ukrainian universities must be run by CIA lizardmen from Mars.
 
Even if Russian leadership views this as existential for Russia as opposed to existential for their political future (which could either lead to escape routes other than victory or run up against even more dire existential political danger from continuing the war), I am not sure the reasoning holds. Russia may not run out of men, but it may run out of tanks and planes and non-nuclear missiles fit for use in war against Ukraine. What then? Nuclear weapons? I think that really might provoke internal rebellion, not to mention the western response. Hell, I doubt the Chinese signed up for condoning nuclear first strikes, for that matter.

edit: Come to think of it, there may be considerable infighting among Russian leadership about to commence or perhaps even already underway. Allegedly Putin was misled to believe that conscripts were not being extensively relied on for the invasion's front line forces. Perhaps his way out is to crusade against the dastardly people who pushed Russian boys into the meatgrinder, never mind that he was the one to decree an invasion that couldn't possibly be done without them. Even if both sides agree that Ukraine's west-friendliness is a long-term existential threat to Russia, it would hardly be the first time national security took a back seat to political backstabbing.

Indeed.Russia is ruled by KGB mafias,if they wanted help their country,they would turn it into second China.
They choosed second Venezuella,instead.So yes,Putin would do anything to be sure,that he still rule kgbstan,not to help Russia.
Which mean,that long war which kill russian army,so they could not made putch,is reasonable.

P.S dear comrade @Chiron ,why ukrainains must made peace or die,if your idol Putin said that he want only Donbas now? even if ukrainain lost,they would lost only Donbas,becouse kgbstan never wonted anything else,RIGHT ?
 


A dead girl explains how she was exploited.

The War in Ukraine

Russia continues to withdraw in good order on both sides of Kyiv, a fact admitted by even Jomini on Twitter. US Military is clueless about the 40km truck convoy's disappearance, not realizing or "forgetting" Russia has lots of decoys that look like the real thing. Whatever, people still don't grasp Russia has a completely different way of war with completely different decision making processes and procedures and its getting pointless to point it out constantly. People have enough info to make up their own minds.



Audit results: Where no misattribution is possible and being generous, Oryx has a 25% to 30% overclaim. Where misattribution is possible, it rises to 50% as a floor. You could take Oryx's work as a dubious pessimistic upper limit, but even then these losses even accepted at face value are well within the replacement capacity of the Russian Reserve Stocks and Factory new builds.



POL supply is now nonexistent for UkA even if they could get raw oil. Whatever they get will have to be trucked in already refined from the EU which has less than 35 days supply or alternate fuels with attendant risks to engines.



Comrades, you aren't supposed to let everyone know yet that we are back in business.


So,cyvilians could not leave Marjunpol.We get that,but who is besieging city,and according to you almost take it,ukrainians,or russians? if russians,then they are responsible for not evacuating cyvilians.
Who destroyed city and hospital in which she was ,ukrainians or russians?

Yes,russian have completly different making process.To be precise - it is old soviet process.They attack ,and then claim victory if they win,or claim it as feint if they failed.
LIKE WITH OPERATION MARS IN 1942 - butcher Żukow killed about million soviets for nothink,so for soviets it was feint.

20-30% of overclaims - it is norm on battlefield.Russian propaganda,on other hand,is even better - they fight evil spirits and bandits who arleady run after killing cyvilians,but still could not win.
And replacing loses with new tanks is impossible - russian tank factory stop producing them.

Ukrainians are loosing fuel? probably.But,they need to defend,not advance and take Moscov.

Comrades, congratulation, now slap on Zs and go south.



Russian Rear Guard takes their pound of flesh before exfiltrating.



Comrades, don't troll the UkA with their own popular song. Use Soviet Music instead. We have enough of Comrade Kadyrov's boys stealing every Nasheed under the sun.



Welcome Comrade, here is a plate carrier, SBU has a habit of gunning people who join us and we can't guarantee your safety.



Comrades, let the bear out, give him vodka and cigarettes and hand him to the Comrade Artillerymen. Every Comrade is needed now for the Donbass Struggle.


So,russians still could not take Marjunpol,but one ukrainian major decide to betray his country.Ukraine would certainly fell now.
And russians are fighting nazis there,not sodiers.SUUUURE.they why they do not win yet? and why they fought them at all? nazis was soviet allies,after all,and they wave soviet flags.

Russians captured zooand do not killed baby bear there.Such a good people,and how great victory!
You knew,if your idols manage to lost more,they could claim that their only goal was to take Marjunpol zoo with baby bear,and everything else was feint.
Just like you claiming,that Kiev was feint now.
 
Also you really need to be more observant.



Random Twitter account has disproven the deaths of civilians by pointing out there is a plastic bag and a bottle in the alleyway near a corpse.

If only that plastic bag wasn't there it'd be so much clearer. But it's pretty obvious they died in combat. And yeah a dude having his hands bound behind his back... That's normal. It was a white cloth so clearly a Russian armband and thus Ukrainians executed him.
 
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Looks like a UkA Battalion heavily entrenched couldn't take the pounding and booked it.



No one appeared to have been killed. And it looks like a Malyutka, pulled from who knows what forgotten storage depot, was used.



Now that is petty.





Comrades, sorry for blowing up the city. Here is food.


1.Russians are winning in Donbass,just like they are winning there from 39 days.And that is why they could not win.
2.Blowing up refineries - it means,that kgbstan do not hope to take them.
3.When you start war,you are obliged to feed enemy population.



More of these videos coming out lately. A reminder that while you were all fixated on the Kyiv Double Feint, the best UkA Forces were getting destroyed in Donbass by air and artillery strikes.

Part 2 has bodies in it and you can watch that on Twitter.



More forces pouring into the Izium Bridgehead.



Comrades, the 150th Rifle, Order of Kutuzov 2nd class, Idritsa Division, 79th Rifle Corps, 3rd Shock Army, 1st Belorussian Front continues forth to liberate the land from Nazis.



They had a good defensible position, but for these Misled Comrades, the reinforcements they needed were engaged around Kyiv. Having the same base doctrine, UkA High Command knew better, but Zelensky is the boss.



Took everything that wasn't nailed down.



So,kgbstan is winning even more in Donieck,becouse Kiev was only feint.
Let assue,that it is true:
1.THEY COULD WIN ARLEADY THERE,IF THEY SEND ALL THAT FORCES THERE.

2.According to you,they liberate Ukraine from nazis.Why they could not win after 39 days? ukrainians are supporting them against those nazis,right?
It is carbon-copy of stupid sralin propaganda,that is why it is not working.
BECOUSE SRALIN PROPAGANDA WORKED,BECOUSE HE COULD SEND PEOPLE AND THEIR FAMILIES TO GULAG/MASSGRAVES.

3.Yes,russian are the same thieves as soviets - becouse they are not russians,but neosoviets.

Note the Vs, meaning these troops relocated quickly from West Kyiv front swiftly and in battle order. Far from a destroyed force clueless Western Analysts have said repeatably, this is an intact force ready for phase 2 in far better maneuver terrain now that they don't have to deal with the Pripyat Marshes and lend credence to the inflatable decoy trucks Western Generals kept harping on and can't figure out where they disappeared to.



The MoD has ordered more footage released, reluctantly, and with much prodding. Russian MoD still remains adamant this war not be fought on Twitter, but on the battlefield with Comrade Artillery and Comrade Airpower, the other Comrades mainly exist to get the former two Comrades into position.



More of the rear guard pulling out from West Kyiv Front. Units leaving with their gear, and as intact units in orderly fashion for the critical battles in Donbass and southern Dnieper Front.



Comrades of the FSB continue the deportations of troublemakers, and the liquidations of spies, traitors, and saboteurs.



Comrade Putin wants to ensure everyone he did not throw gasoline on this. Ignore his phone logs and the jerry can in his hands and move along Comrades.



Comrades, sorry for all the explosions, but for your safety we will be evacuating you on a clearly marked military truck. Everything will be fine.


36,971 people live in Bucha and the Mayor is still alive and personally raised the Ukrainian Flag after the Russians withdrew and greeted the UkA when they came in.

Now, to kill all males 18 to 60, that would leave about ~8k bodies on the street. We see 20 so far and there may be a few hundred more who tried to resist and were executed as unlawful combatants by the Russians.

It is also possible some grudges were settled under the cover of war between Ukrainians who figured it would be blamed on the Russians. Also possible collaborators were killed under cover of the war by Patriotic Ukrainians. And also possible that the constant fighting saw civilians caught in the crossfire.

An investigation is warranted in any case though due to the war evidence will be sparse and unless there are confessions, there won't be justice for anyone.



So:
1.Russian units are fresh after fighting 39 days for Kiev,so they could easiy take Doneck now.
2.Kgbstan is Fighting with artillery - which mean,that YOUR INFRANTRY IS SHITTY.
3.fsb deport troublemarkers and spies - WHICH MEAN GENOCIDE IN MORDOR SPEECH.
4.evacuating cyviians - which mean ethnic cleaning in Mordor speech.
5.Russians do not kill anybody in Bucha,and those who was killed deserved that.Typical sralin style propaganda.

P.S I really pity you,that you must use sralin style propaganda here.It worked only becouse West sold East Europe to sralin,and people there could shout huzzah for sralin or go to massgraves/gulags.
Your bosses could not do that to anybody but russians,and enslaved ukrainians.
But you are intelligent,you are arleady aware of that fact.
 
People arguing the Russians are doing night OPs?
Havnt most of them been found without NVGs and Ukrainians early on best success come from night raids?


And counter artillery is still active and always has been.

And why are places like Lviv not decimated if the RAF is still in the air? Ya know because supplies.
Why arnt we hearing more if these supplie
 
Russia is the second largest manufacturer of weapons in the world with reserve stocks stretching all the way to WW2, including factory fresh T-34s in deep storage which are kept for nostalgia and WW2 movies. They also build more tanks in a year than they lost so far in this war even using Oryx's inflated numbers.

The tank factories are literally shutting down due to the sanctions regime.


Also the mothballed old stuff is clearly worse than the stuff they lost already, or else they'd be using it instead. Russia clearly sent their best forces into Ukraine and they're losing, why would new waves do any better with inferior troops and inferior materiel?

This 2nd phase will consist of more WW1 style artillery attrition with short bursts of armored thrusts to unhinge defensive lines till either UkA reserves establish a new line or UkA suffers an operational shock and routes. This is the consequence of defensive technologies making attacks less successful if an opponent is willing to slug it out. Iraqi Insurgents in Fallujah held the city longer in 2014 than the Iraqi Army held Iraq in 2003, and so far UkA has shown that it is willing to slug it out and not be called cowards. Its admirable, I can respect that, but this fight can only go one way and if they lose too many of their cadres in a hopeless force on force fight, they won't have a shadow of a chance to wage an insurgency. Also they have very little time to get the farmers planting or they won't have a crop this year.

You seem to be ignoring that Russians are already in retreat in significant theaters. Maybe theaters with worse troops/logistics/material, but still important ones, concentrating the Ukrainian forces for the remaining fights, which have been stalemates so far.

I'd be very surprised if the Russians inflicted as heavy casualties on Ukrainian offenses as the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians, at least in materiel. The Ukrainians got amazing NATO anti-tank weapons, and the Russians don't have as effective equivalents. We see where the Russians are retreating they aren't exacting heavy prices or keeping all their material, they're running and keep losing equipment and manpower.

Ukrainians definitely won't be planting this year. This will be bad for countries further down the supply chain, but Europe's gonna feed them unless we're in a literal apocalypse as far as food production goes.

There is no help coming for Ukraine, they can either sue for an honorable peace or die martyrs. No one can make that choice for them.

But we're increasingly funneling more weapons to them, so help is coming, as is huge amounts of humanitarian aid for the food supply issues and medical care.

The Russians are very rapidly being forced into worse and worse positions involving fresh troops, experienced troops, and materiel. Ukraine is likely also partially exhausted, but has plenty of volunteers with really high motivation.

Even assuming the "Russian genocide of Ukrainians" stuff is a lie, that is a hell of a lie to make Ukrainians fight to the death, with immense support from media around the world and in Ukraine to make it stick. I just don't see how the Ukrainians can sue for peace if they expect mass murders in occupied territory, when ever Russia's minimalist aims involve territorial expansion and they still mostly seem to think De-Nazifying and demilitarizing Ukraine is a sensible demand. I think the worst case for Russia is indeed Ukraine exhausts itself fighting due to losses in critical equipment, but that's seeming less and less likely than Russian forces breaking.
 
Ukrainians definitely won't be planting this year. This will be bad for countries further down the supply chain, but Europe's gonna feed them unless we're in a literal apocalypse as far as food production goes.
Fun fact about that.


Patriotism isn't just limited to fighting Russia directly.
 
Daily Fail, so grain of salt, but the same thing happened in WWII to German Troops occupying cities so I can believe it.


Daily Mail said:
About 500 more servicemen of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian Federation are in hospitals due to severe alcohol poisoning of unknown origin.'

I believe the origin of Alcohol poisoning is the consumption of Alcohol.

This OSINT Auditing stuff is EZ!



No I wasn't drunk! I was poisoned by alcohol! That is the reason for the ease of my capture!
 
So, were in April now, which is where well see if this is a long war or a short war. Both sides at the start had about a months worth of combat supplies, and high intensity combat burns out men and equipment too. One month from the Russian invasion would have been about March 26th, which more or less corresponds to their peak.

Now were going to see how deep the Ukrainian reserves are. If they've mostly been equally heavily engaged, the heavy weaponry needed for strong offenses against determined foes my not be all that great shape either. We will see if the withdrawal in the North frees up enough resources to launch a major offensive, or if they need time to hold, regroup, and train up replacement troops, and mostly fortify the remaining lines.

If the Ukrainian military doesn't achieve dramatic success in the next couple of weeks, I would expect combat to slow down significantly as both sides fortify and replace losses. Russia I think would strongly benefit if it could get some formal ceasefire, let them integrate the conquered areas, better prepare logistic areas, train up new troops and rebuild weapon stockpiles. It would be helpful it Belarus got its army into a more fighting state, if for no other reason to remove further need for large russian deployment to defend against potential Ukrainian invasion and tie down hopefully several 10,000s of Ukrainian troops guarding that frontier.

If the plan is to try and negotiate a 4-8 month ceasefire when both are too tired to carry out further assaults, the main Russian target should probably be seizing up to about the M-03 in the south: that removes a large sailent which would greatly complicate transferring troops between the Donesk and Karviv fronts, as well as generally shortening the front. That is probably the safest place to try and consolidate pre negotiations.

Anywhere else is more questionable and dependent upon how strong the Ukrainian counterattack turns out to be: it would be useful to hold onto Kherson if they can, because maintaining a bridgehead there makes threating the rest of the coast much more viable.
 
This is why the alt-right sometimes refers to white Americans as Amerikaners--as in, an occupied people living under a despotic government.
The 'alt-Right' do not refer to white Americans as such; no idea where you'd get that idea.

The only people who are likely to use such a term are Groyper's and neo-Dixiecrats that have tried to parasite themselves on to the populist Right, because they cannot get close to power any other way.
 
Fun fact about that.


Patriotism isn't just limited to fighting Russia directly.


Why the fuck should we be patriotic to fight Russia ?

To serve the interests of rapacious oligarchs, ravenous neocons,demented liberals , moronic progressives, degenerate Ukranian Neo-Nazis, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, other weapons manufacturers and Poles with Baltics who want to annihilate Russia just because they want revenge for the past, causing a thermonuclear war at worst and a "conventional" Third World War which will result in famine, disease and other calamities ?

A country that has done no harm to the rest of the world interests or individuals.

Why the fuck should I or the rest of the world suffer for the same elitarian totalitarian leadership that made our lives miserable for the past 2 years?
 
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The tank factories are literally shutting down due to the sanctions regime.


A claim by Ukrainians? Not confirmed by the factory itself which uses Russian Sourced parts. Sorry but this is bullshit. Especially as the company just signed contracts to upgrade several nation's legacy gear and is still continuing normal production. It will even roll out tanks in Yerevan.

Also the mothballed old stuff is clearly worse than the stuff they lost already, or else they'd be using it instead. Russia clearly sent their best forces into Ukraine and they're losing, why would new waves do any better with inferior troops and inferior materiel?

The Mothballed Stuff is the same as they have sent in at the start and is of acceptable quality and has been sent in as individual replacements from the start as Russia recognizes its in a peer vs peer fight and they need to be able to replace a lot of metal. The US Army itself has a large stockpile of older M1 variants for the same reason though not to the extent that Russia has.

You seem to be ignoring that Russians are already in retreat in significant theaters. Maybe theaters with worse troops/logistics/material, but still important ones, concentrating the Ukrainian forces for the remaining fights, which have been stalemates so far.

They were double feints employing 40,000 troops out of 190,000 engaged not counting the Donbass Republics' forces, and they did their job of forcing Kyiv to defend their capital while the main thrust gutted the south. They even used decoy trucks to enhance the threat till Izium was breached and they no longer needed to tie down 40,000 troops on a side show in unfavorable terrain.

Kherson Oblast is the fruit basket of Ukraine with ~1 million folks, the bulk of whom are still under Russian Control. In fact given the force dispositions, I don't even think the Russian High Command expected to bridge the Dnieper at Kherson, but as the BTG assigned flank protection saw the bridge intact, its commander decided this was his chance for glory. The end result was 7 brigade bases were overran quickly with their units routed into the city itself without their heavy equipment or time to gather the reservists and arm them. Russian High Command rolled with it and committed their VDV reserve to widen the lodgement and see how far they could get. Which also helped sell the Odessa feint which pinned down large numbers of UkA forces. This also, more dangerously, opened Kryvyi Rih to a land attack. That city falls, game over for Ukraine.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast was also a major farming area and fishery area with the largest power generating stations. roughly half of it 1.6 million people are behind Russian lines.

None of these southern areas have any guerrilla activity of note and most are being converted to a collaborationist civilian control as the Russians find those willing to collaborate.



I'd be very surprised if the Russians inflicted as heavy casualties on Ukrainian offenses as the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians, at least in materiel. The Ukrainians got amazing NATO anti-tank weapons, and the Russians don't have as effective equivalents. We see where the Russians are retreating they aren't exacting heavy prices or keeping all their material, they're running and keep losing equipment and manpower.

The bulk of Russian losses are due to artillery strikes. ATGMs account for less than 3% of Russian Losses. Meanwhile UkA is reduced to a Technical mounted force with the odd armored vehicle here and there as their own losses have been heavy and they have less ability to move around due to Russian Air Superiority. Russian Forces are still fully mechanized with the odd technical as some units LARP ISIS and steal their Nasheeds for the camera.

Also Russia completely dominates the artillery battle and this is what is doing most of the killing thanks to Russian dominance in drones, both in quality and quantity to direct their fires. All their other forces exist to shield the artillery and secure new forward areas for them to deploy and with the flat terrain of the south of Ukraine, there is no hiding place.

Now the UkA definitely deserves praise for slugging it out and preserving their will to fight on and not be called cowards, but that is not enough. They are consenting to a straight on artillery war they don't have the tubes to fight. And that can only go one way unless they melt into the countryside and turn the fight into an attritional insurgency fight designed to gut Russian Administrative Capability to run the land. Its there only hope and a forlorn one as Russia is perfectly willing to deport as many people as it takes to maintain control.

Ukrainians definitely won't be planting this year. This will be bad for countries further down the supply chain, but Europe's gonna feed them unless we're in a literal apocalypse as far as food production goes.

There is a food apocalypse, Russia controls the fertilizer trade.

But we're increasingly funneling more weapons to them, so help is coming, as is huge amounts of humanitarian aid for the food supply issues and medical care.

Not enough given the huge outflow of refugees and the increasingly effective attacks on UkA transport infrastructure. Also Europe is running out of weapons to send. This war is already a forgone defeat for the UkA unless they switch to insurgency while they still have the cadres for it. Because once they consent to a Russian Style artillery war in the south, those cadres are going to get shredded.
 


Well I guess these people should ensure they aren't captured then.

The War in Ukraine

West Kyiv Front has now disbanded, the last of the Rear Guard swam back to Belarus. A week long withdrawal operation is now completed with many of these units already at Square Z operations zone. O group has taken down their checkpoints around Konotop and the Mayor is simply waiting for UkA to arrive. The O group will still maintain a presence near Okhtyrka for the second phase but the bulk will be reassigned.

If none of this makes sense to you, read Russian and Soviet Doctrine.



So much for sanctions. Petrodollar is dead.



Terminals blown. Which means a Tanker Truck has to load in Moldova or Romania and drive to the Kherson Front to supply UkA forces there. An operation that will consume more fuel than can be delivered.



Well the Russian's choice is made for them, to Barvinkove, as supply trucks are not moving toward Slovyansk till the water recedes.



...

...

Ah fuck it, I'm too tired right now.


1.If i do not knew that kgbstan committed war crimes on Ukraine,i would knew now.Kgbstan always accuse others of their own vices.Old soviet school.

2.Russians run,according to soviet doctrine.Which is knewn by us - if soviet attacked and get beaten,named it as feint,if they attacked and win,named it as main attack.

3.Ukraine is out of oil.Good,but how russians want to deliver oil to their units? they failed to do so so far.Result is as if they have no oil.

Of course,that you are tired.Selling soviet style propaganda is always boring.
 
Russian jet shot down in the Izyum area, pilot reportedly captured.


Funny things about plane crashes... Every single one that i see in the past years, you get the debris all around a large place. Now, look at this image. Apparently the plane hit the ground intact - no marks of crash landing also, is like dropped vertically and after that burned completely.
Can you spell fake?
 
Funny things about plane crashes... Every single one that i see in the past years, you get the debris all around a large place. Now, look at this image. Apparently the plane hit the ground intact - no marks of crash landing also, is like dropped vertically and after that burned completely.
Can you spell fake?

Dropped vertically... like it showed in the video linked in the Tweets?

EDIT:

I did a DDG internet search for SU-30 crashes.



🤷‍♀️
 
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Funny things about plane crashes... Every single one that i see in the past years, you get the debris all around a large place. Now, look at this image. Apparently the plane hit the ground intact - no marks of crash landing also, is like dropped vertically and after that burned completely.
Can you spell fake?
No, dropped vertically and landed perfectly - like an Harrier or a F-35B. Just look at the 'plane'.
Ever heard of a flat-spin.

There is a little bit of a indentation at the back end as well. I saw the vid of this one come down, it was nearly vertical because the plane was in a flatspin as it went it, based on how the fire trail looked.

Also, since the pilto survived and was captured, it means the ejection seat worked, which would also impart a large near-vertial force to the nose of the aircraft as the pilot was thrown clear.
 

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