Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[D4rk0w1]

Apparently, Kiev wants to have the Slovenian flag taking down because of its similarities to the Russian Flag. Should all Red, White and Blue flags be "Canceled" now?

Slovenian Flag at Kyiv Embassy Removed Due to Dangers from Similarity to Russian Flag

Ljubljana, 31 March 2022 - Slovenia's charge d'affaires at the embassy in Kyiv Boštjan Lesjak, who arrived in Kyiv on Sunday, had to take down the Slovenian flag in front of the embassy because it looks too similar to Russia's flag. "When we arrived in Kyiv it was quite windy and whe...

www.total-slovenia-news.com

 

[The Original Sixth]

I don't really know but it has high possibility since my casual trawling of the internet about the peace talks only US have seems to have poor opinion and worried about it having a headway because EU especially Germany wants his dealer back for one more hit of gas. Why did they abandoned Nuclear Energy when they allow American to station their nukes in Germany?

Well, two theories as to why the US may not want it. The first is that there are those within the Biden Admin who absolutely believe that the Ukrainians may fight off the Russians if we just keep sending them aid. The second is that the Biden Admin is concerned because the Russians are doing such a poor job that if it came down to NATO vs Russia, Russia would absolutely get crushed and the Russians might bring out the nukes. So better to bleed them dry in Ukraine then allow even for the possibility of a nuclear confrontation.

Personally, I think it's A, but the Biden Admin is justifying it with B. In any case, I don't know what the EU is going to do. They simply can't survive without Russian oil and gas and the way the war is going, they're going to lose it. They need to open Nord 2 if they don't want the Russians to shut down their production, which would take decades to bring back online. Germany is straight on the path to snapping the back of their economy.

We aren't just talking troops, we're talking a combination of troops, modern vehicles, and modern equipment.

Because it doesn't matter how many troops Russia has if they don't have the modern vehicles and equipment to actually make use of them.

Side note, it was 10,000+ troops KIA and 30,000+ troops WIA.

Where are you getting 30,000 WIA from? Their state media reported it was just under 10,000 dead and about 16,000 wounded. Again, I expect both numbers a bit higher now, but how exactly is that equating 1:5 in losses?

And what does it matter if the Russians lose old Soviet hardware? That shit was already half-broken before it got to the battlefield. The Russians have probably lost as many vehicles to poor maintenance as they have javelins.

I'm not one to shy away from the fact that the Russians are declining power and every man they lose is really someone they can't replace. But at the same time, the Russians are trimming the fat. This war has shown shocking rot in the Russian military. It's better that Putin and the leadership realize this now and address those within the next few years, then it is to continue under the delusion that they've got a capable military.

 

[Chiron]

A dead girl explains how she was exploited.

The War in Ukraine

Russia continues to withdraw in good order on both sides of Kyiv, a fact admitted by even Jomini on Twitter. US Military is clueless about the 40km truck convoy's disappearance, not realizing or "forgetting" Russia has lots of decoys that look like the real thing. Whatever, people still don't grasp Russia has a completely different way of war with completely different decision making processes and procedures and its getting pointless to point it out constantly. People have enough info to make up their own minds.



Audit results: Where no misattribution is possible and being generous, Oryx has a 25% to 30% overclaim. Where misattribution is possible, it rises to 50% as a floor. You could take Oryx's work as a dubious pessimistic upper limit, but even then these losses even accepted at face value are well within the replacement capacity of the Russian Reserve Stocks and Factory new builds.



POL supply is now nonexistent for UkA even if they could get raw oil. Whatever they get will have to be trucked in already refined from the EU which has less than 35 days supply or alternate fuels with attendant risks to engines.



Comrades, you aren't supposed to let everyone know yet that we are back in business.

 

[Aldarion]

Using an unarmed van for transportation "behind friendly lines" is a very WW2 era concept, when front lines were much more fixed and concrete then they are today

Were they? Germans had massive problems with partisans from day one literally everywhere (even Yugoslavia, though partisan resistance there only kicked off after Mother Russia got invaded).

Can you imagine what people would say if during Iraq, the US or British forces were using a bunch of WW2 era museum prices, or if during the bombing campaign in Libya the French dug up some old 50s prop plane to drop bombs, and justified it as being ok because it was safe airspace and Libya didn't have any SAMs, so using old planes that still worked was fine?

I would be first one to say "they finally got some brains". Why use supersonic jets if armed cropdusters will work just fine?

I'm not one to shy away from the fact that the Russians are declining power and every man they lose is really someone they can't replace. But at the same time, the Russians are trimming the fat. This war has shown shocking rot in the Russian military. It's better that Putin and the leadership realize this now and address those within the next few years, then it is to continue under the delusion that they've got a capable military.

So basically, Winter War all over again?

 

[planefag]

And what does it matter if the Russians lose old Soviet hardware? That shit was already half-broken before it got to the battlefield. The Russians have probably lost as many vehicles to poor maintenance as they have javelins.

In case you haven't noticed that's the only fucking thing they've GOT. How many fucking T-14 Armatas have you seen in this war so far, dude?

 

[Free-Stater 101]

Apparently, Kiev wants to have the Slovenian flag taking down because of its similarities to the Russian Flag. Should all Red, White and Blue flags be "Canceled" now?

Slovenian Flag at Kyiv Embassy Removed Due to Dangers from Similarity to Russian Flag

Ljubljana, 31 March 2022 - Slovenia's charge d'affaires at the embassy in Kyiv Boštjan Lesjak, who arrived in Kyiv on Sunday, had to take down the Slovenian flag in front of the embassy because it looks too similar to Russia's flag. "When we arrived in Kyiv it was quite windy and whe...

www.total-slovenia-news.com

You can't be serious...

If you are it's perfectly logical for a nation to demand this because if Kiev becomes a warzone the similarities could lead to a number of stupid situation's, if I were stuck there right now you certainty wouldn't catch me flying anything vaguely resembling a Russian or Ukrainian flag.

 

[Marnuplee]

From "Jake Morphonios: Blackstone Intelligence. I oppose Putin's invasion. Providing detailed analysis of claims made by both sides of the #UkraineWar"


The first shots from the building of the Security Service of Ukraine in Mariupol

The DPR forces team control of the building of the Security Service of Ukraine in Mariupol. Documents, weapons, and women's wigs were found—all in the report.

 

[Marduk]

And what does it matter if the Russians lose old Soviet hardware? That shit was already half-broken before it got to the battlefield. The Russians have probably lost as many vehicles to poor maintenance as they have javelins.

Because the best stuff Russia has is, in many types, modernized Soviet hardware. If you tracked Russian military procurement before the war you would note that the new replacements are usually coming up slowly and late. This shit is expensive, in other words. And in some interesting areas also reliant on foreign components. Replacing them due to sanctions will take even more time and expense. Russia can't just decree that they want a thousand or two Armatas or brand new, top version T-90's off the production lines in a couple years. If they could buy masses of nice new stuff, they would be using way less of polished up Soviet stuff already. But most of the nice stuff is either in prototype stage or at best fairly short production runs.
But they could barely think of that before sanctions and at highest oil prices, and certainly can't now.

The truly badly maintained stuff is disproportionally left in Russia because it couldn't even get to the frontline under own power in the first place.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Because the best stuff Russia has is, in many types, modernized Soviet hardware. If you tracked Russian military procurement before the war you would note that the new replacements are usually coming up slowly and late. This shit is expensive, in other words. And in some interesting areas also reliant on foreign components. Replacing them due to sanctions will take even more time and expense. Russia can't just decree that they want a thousand or two Armatas or brand new, top version T-90's off the production lines in a couple years. If they could buy masses of nice new stuff, they would be using way less of polished up Soviet stuff already. But most of the nice stuff is either in prototype stage or at best fairly short production runs.
But they could barely think of that before sanctions and at highest oil prices, and certainly can't now.

The truly badly maintained stuff is disproportionally left in Russia because it couldn't even get to the frontline under own power in the first place.

The Russians claim to have around 5000+ T-90's in storage personally I think thats a load of shit. Although if they could stop running 3 different sorts of tanks and multiple version of every piece of equipment it would greatly simplify their logistical situation and make life a hell of a lot easier. But they just don't have the funding for that while also trying to larp as a super power.

 

[Marduk]

The Russians claim to have around 5000+ T-90's in storage personally I think thats a load of shit. Although if they could stop running 3 different sorts of tanks and multiple version of every piece of equipment it would greatly simplify their logistical situation and make life a hell of a lot easier. But they just don't have the funding for that while also trying to larp as a super power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces#Vehicles

Guess someone said that a lot of those rusty reserve T-72's should be turned into T-90's and perhaps even signed a Very Important Document saying so.
But that doesn't mean it happened, nor when and if it ever will.

 

[D4rk0w1]

You can't be serious...

If you are it's perfectly logical for a nation to demand this because if Kiev becomes a warzone the similarities could lead to a number of stupid situation's, if I were stuck there right now you certainty wouldn't catch me flying anything vaguely resembling a Russian or Ukrainian flag.

Maybe it is logical in a warzone or it is just different take on culture about National flags but if it was my country being told to put down their embassy flag it would piss of a lot of my countrymen since we earned our right to fly our National Flag by Blood of Heroes fighting against Spaniards, Americans and Japanese invaders. That is also why I sympathize need to resist the foreign invasion but my personal opinion maybe they could renegotiate the Minsk II for another more favorable agreement instead of relying the Americans for defense. I mean to be an enemy of America is dangerous but be her ally is deadly since my country fully expects that on event of a Chinese invasion it would take about a month at best to 3 months at worse for any significant help to arrived and by then the Capital would already bombed back to stone age with 2/3 of the country burning. This fucking damned war just prove us that we right to not overly rely on the Americans and have a least a functioning Coast Guard, adequate Navy and have a lot of those Air or Missile defenses. Also this whole incident also made think that there seems to a shortage of good diplomats in the world since I believe that war should be the last resort any country to make but here we are.

So in short I just thought that it was a very interesting detail to raise but it is a Slovenian matter so I won't intervene on anything but express my opinion about it.

 

[Battlegrinder]

Were they? Germans had massive problems with partisans from day one literally everywhere (even Yugoslavia, though partisan resistance there only kicked off after Mother Russia got invaded).

Germany did. The countries that weren't genocidal dictatorships had a bit of an easier time with it.

 

[sillygoose]

Germany did. The countries that weren't genocidal dictatorships had a bit of an easier time with it.

America in SE Asia and North Korea would disagree. Same with the various European colonial powers.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces#Vehicles

Guess someone said that a lot of those rusty reserve T-72's should be turned into T-90's and perhaps even signed a Very Important Document saying so.
But that doesn't mean it happened, nor when and if it ever will.

To be fair there really isn't a huge difference between T-90's and T-72's also both are trash tanks, That said It is sort of funny that India has more T-90's than Russia.

 

[TheRejectionist]

From "Jake Morphonios: Blackstone Intelligence. I oppose Putin's invasion. Providing detailed analysis of claims made by both sides of the #UkraineWar"


The first shots from the building of the Security Service of Ukraine in Mariupol

The DPR forces team control of the building of the Security Service of Ukraine in Mariupol. Documents, weapons, and women's wigs were found—all in the report.

What's the damn purpose of women's wigs would be? Camouflage?

 

[planefag]

between all of the wrecked aircraft, drones, repair and fuel facilities and military plants, Donbass being reinforced and the main Ukrainian army getting the noose slowly tightened around it I do believe that Russia has reached most of its objectives.

Oh, my sweet summer Vatnik, you have absolutely no fucking clue what you're talking about. A defense industry is important, yes. But you know what's even more important? A fucking military. See, even if you have the capacity to build a new military domestically, doesn't mean you have the money to do so. The Russian army as it is - or rather, was - is this fact made explicit, as there is no fucking way a state with the GDP of fucking Canada could build one-tenth the number of assets Russia inherited from the Soviet Union. There's a reason their mainstay tank is still various levels of upgraded T-72. Oh, their defense industry can design all the shit they want - SU-57s, T-14s, Terminators, you name it, they've got it. But how many have the Russian armed forces actually purchased? Right, they've bought fuck-all because they don't have the money.

So you can jerk off all you fucking want about it, but what matters now, and for the foreseeable future, is the integrity of the actual armies in the goddamned field. Those are the center of gravity, and Russia has lost hundreds upon hundreds of military vehicles they cannot replace. It doesn't matter how many factories they have; even if they found a supplier for microchips, they can't afford to replace what they've lost in Ukraine even over a decade. Same goes for their vast ammo stockpiles; they exhausted their new-built stuff quickly and are now digging deep into rusty, shitty, unstable and aged Soviet era ammo dumps. Once it is gone, they will never be able to replace even a significant fraction of it.

Russia has Russia... and their only friend left in this world is China, who is as much enemy as ally, and much like Russia demands cash on the nail for any "aid" they provide. Meanwhile, Putin has turned Ukraine into the frontline between a renewed Cold War between Russia and a newly terrified and stimulated NATO, who will not hesitate to sell Ukraine some of their older Western MBTs they have stockpiled (the United States alone has 3,000 M1A1 Abrams in storage. We could sell Ukraine an entire fucking tank division division on a long-term zero-interest loan and never miss them.) Putin should have thought about why America doesn't have free healthcare before he decided to start these fuck-fuck games, because we've played this game before and we won.

The Russians pulled out like they said they were going to do, the Ukrainians are largely advancing into a vacuum and claiming they are achieving victories.

So two companies worth of Russian troops and armor utterly wiped out is a "vacuum" and not a victory, huh? Because I extensively documented just this happening to a Russian two-company combined arms force trying to retreat from Dmytrivka on March 31st. Even more pictures of the destruction were posted today:







Courtesy of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense here is a guided, narrated tour of the slaughter of Russia's Finest, which might be of interest if you can understand Ukrainian:



Does this look like a "vacuum" to you, motherfucker?

 

[The Original Sixth]

Oh, before I forget:









Thieving fucking animals, like a barbarian horde from ancient times. And that's far from the worst part.

Are we really supposed to be getting upset over looting? I mean, don't get me wrong, it's not the right thing to do--but most of these guys are conscripts. Looting is what poorly trained soldiers do. Has been for thousands of years.

Russia must be destroyed.

That's far worse--but let's back it up.

First, how many sexual crimes did US soldiers commit in the Middle East? How many of those were covered up? Second, several soldiers raping people is not a rational reason to wish for the destruction of Russia itself--since I rather doubt that Putin told them "make sure to take time out from the war effort to rape children". Finally, these are conscripts. These people are pressed into service with very little choice and probably very little background check (if any). Calling for the death of Russia is as fair as calling for the death of America because some American men rape people. It's entirely irrational.

I mean, the Ukrainians have literal neo-nazis in their National Guard. Confirmed. By their own admission, at least 250 skinheads were admitted into their National Guard. And upwards to a thousand. In their National Guard. And that's before we take into account evidence of Ukrainian militia and troops allegedly shooting their own people, beating their own people, and other abuses of power.

So let's all just chill and wait until some of the dust settles before we start screaming for Russia to be destroyed for war crimes that we haven't even confirmed actually happened.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Remember the Rape of Lucretia? Yeah... Stuff happens even in the West. Let's not be dramatic.

 

[Chiron]

As a veteran who specialized in operations and logistics, he knows his stuff. Especially with V units withdrawn 2 days ago from East Kyiv already showing up near Kharkov with no time to change the unit designators or repair minor cosmetic damage or even clean up the mud. Probably didn't have enough time to haze the new meat sent in as individual replacements



This must be from the start of the war, unless there was a recent fight I missed.



The artillery did the work.



Since he wasn't with Azov, he was shown quarter.



The Comrades are now stealing Jordanian Nasheeds. No Nasheed is safe.

Are we really supposed to be getting upset over looting? I mean, don't get me wrong, it's not the right thing to do--but most of these guys are conscripts. Looting is what poorly trained soldiers do. Has been for thousands of years.

Actually a lot of Iraqis and Afghans would disagree with that, and Generals are notorious for labeling their loot war booty and then fudging the paperwork with a wink and nod. Looting is normal and often overlooked so long as its discrete. And if the food, toilet paper, and drinks are held up due to a traffic jam and you run across a convenience store, well its war and needs must.

That's far worse--but let's back it up.

Yeah, this is a tweet without further evidence. Unless there is something more substantial, goes into unverified psyops file till we get something more concrete such as a preserved rape kit with Chain of Custody that can then be used in conjunction with unit logs to pin down the area and who was there, then DNA test the troops if still alive.

Rape of women in a time of war is a death penalty offense punishable by hanging and a dishonorable burial in a dishonored grave located far from the honored dead, unmarked except for a number corresponding to a master list and in an untended and overgrown graveyard not marked on any official maps.

 

[planefag]

Funny how all those western anti-tank weapons are making it to the front by the thousands despite the "aIr tHreAt," huh.

Maybe the mods could clarify something for me. We are, of course, supposed to avoid arguing over the veracity of "sources" as it leads to endless circular bickering. But what, exactly, qualifies as a source? Even the information I'm collating is sourced to, well, other primary sources, as journalists do. But I keep seeing shitheads with a Twitter account just saying shit and this shit being asserted to be True, with the source being "dude trust me." What is the standard here? Does it have to be said on Twitter? Does the person saying it have to claim Credentials? Do those credentials actually have to stand scrutiny? At what point does it qualify as "news" worthy of being posted in this here news thread, as opposed to some clown making it the fuck up? If we presume we cannot know who is and isn't making shit up, does the newsworthiness lie in who is making up what shit? In which case, does that mean potential lies uttered by Side A and Side B count as news, as they are belligerents, but horseshit made up by posters on this forum, in this here thread, qualify as the half-assed analysis we are supposed to eschew?

Please clarify these things for me. Because I used to be a modestly Big Deal on Twitter, and I could be again in a goddamned hurry. But since I see certain people just making shit the fuck up right here on the forum, I'm thinking maybe I could save myself the trouble of screwing with birdsite again.