Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[planefag]

On a per ton basis which actually matters, Russia exports more food than the US which is also reliant on Russian Potash and other fertilizers. Oh and US truckers are on strike, and fuel costs are taking others off the road. So good luck getting shit where it needs to go. So world agricultural crash this year. Every "Western" Economy is fucked. Russia is shrugging off the sanctions and India, China, and Brazil know which way the wind is blowing. So do the Gulf States which refuse to answer Biden's calls while taking Putin's calls.

So we've gone from "disaster for the west" to "famine for the whole world" because of the invasion and you think NATO won't push the button? 😏

Russia will do what it feels is in its interests. As things stand they are winning the war, the Ukrainians are barely holding on and western aid is being captured in such large numbers by Russian troops they are even training on them. What the Russians don't capture, gets blown up before it even gets to fire. Less than 1% of NATO lethal aid even gets fired at Russian Troops. The overwhelming vast majority of Russian losses are from Soviet base weaponry that they and Ukraine use.

Europe will do nothing and is in collapse. Same for the US. American Hegemony is dead. What the Taliban didn't kill, Russia finished off.

Let's file this prediction away for later and see where it stands by this time next week.

 

[Chiron]

So we've gone from "disaster for the west" to "famine for the whole world" because of the invasion and you think NATO won't push the button? 😏

Yes because of how the world economy has been set up since the Neoliberals started outsourcing the "Western" Industrial Base to nations that rejoiced in us giving them the rope with which to hang ourselves.

 

[Sailor.X]

On a per ton basis which actually matters, Russia exports more food than the US which is also reliant on Russian Potash and other fertilizers. Oh and US truckers are on strike, and fuel costs are taking others off the road. So good luck getting shit where it needs to go. So world agricultural crash this year. Every "Western" Economy is fucked. Russia is shrugging off the sanctions and India, China, and Brazil know which way the wind is blowing. So do the Gulf States which refuse to answer Biden's calls while taking Putin's calls.




Russia will do what it feels is in its interests. As things stand they are winning the war, the Ukrainians are barely holding on and western aid is being captured in such large numbers by Russian troops they are even training on them. What the Russians don't capture, gets blown up before it even gets to fire. Less than 1% of NATO lethal aid even gets fired at Russian Troops. The overwhelming vast majority of Russian losses are from Soviet base weaponry that they and Ukraine use.

Europe will do nothing and is in collapse. Same for the US. American Hegemony is dead. What the Taliban didn't kill, Russia finished off.

Again Russia is not the biggest Food exporter. Which Countries Export the Most Food?

 

[Agent23]

Again Russia is not the biggest Food exporter. Which Countries Export the Most Food?

@Chiron you might be mixing up food as a whole and grains, for which the Russians, Ukraine and Kazakhstan account for over 25% of all exports.
There were literally 200 grain carrying ships stuck in the Black Sea since this thing started, and grains are a primary staple for most of the world.
Staples like Grain and rice are what actually counts, because that is what the majority of people consume on a daily basis.
All of California's organic raisins and avocados and almonds probably fetch a pretty decent price per kilogram, so does my favorite, grass-fed Black Angus steak.
But those things do not feed the poor, the working class, all the subsistence level, soon to be refugees from the Middle East and Africa.

Planting and harvesting in Ukraine are fucked, and complex supply chains do not realign themselves over night, especially after the protests and after oil hitting 120$ a barrel.

I am calling it now, Putin will not block exports of grain outright, since between the sanctions and western shipping company spergouts it will be hard to get it where it needs to go, the insurance premiums for ships operating in the Black Sea also spiked to over 30 times the previous number.
You also need the ships, the ports, the trucks to move all that extra cargo around.
So Putin doesn't even need to block some exports for the time being, but he can be very selective with who he sells his grains to, that being allies and friendly countries, since most probably ships transporting that grain will be non-western.
The Gulf Arabs might control the West's energy, but Putin probably controls a decent amount of their food now, so you can see a "virtuous cycle" forming for the Russians, with oil exporters that are not self-sufficient in food having to ask more for their oil because of food inflation.Hungary, for example, already banned food exports.

Wheat Exports by Country 2022

Wheat exports by country in 2022 plus a searchable database of all wheat shipping nations

www.worldstopexports.com

1. Russia: US$7.9 billion (17.6% of total wheat exports)
2. United States: $6.32 billion (14.1%)
3. Canada: $6.3 billion (14%)
4. France: $4.5 billion (10.1%)
5. Ukraine: $3.6 billion (8%)
6. Australia: $2.7 billion (6%)
7. Argentina: $2.12 billion (4.7%)
8. Germany: $2.1 billion (4.7%)
9. Kazakhstan: $1.1 billion (2.5%)
10. Poland: $1 billion (2.3%)
11. Romania: $948.8 million (2.1%)
12. Lithuania: $910.7 million (2%)
13. Bulgaria: $699.2 million (1.6%)
14. Latvia: $649.2 million (1.4%)
15. Hungary: $630.6 million (1.4%)

The ships that move the goods, hummm:

Huge Russian merchant fleet, Russian sailors, face uncertain situation | Insurance Marine News

Sanctions on the Russian-owned merchant fleet and/or sanctions on Russian commercial fleet crew could have a major effect on vessel availability over the next few months, according to Vivek Srivastava, senior trade analyst at VesselsValue. Srivastra said that potentially 7.4% of the world’s...

insurancemarinenews.com

anctions on the Russian-owned merchant fleet and/or sanctions on Russian commercial fleet crew could have a major effect on vessel availability over the next few months, according to Vivek Srivastava, senior trade analyst at VesselsValue.

Srivastra said that potentially 7.4% of the world’s tanker fleet would be at risk, as would 3.5% of the world’s LNG carrier fleet.

“With cripplingly weak utilization and freight rates afflicting both of those sectors for the past several months, in marked contrast to booming dry bulk carrier and containership sectors, sanctions on Russian shipping companies could remove some excess supply of ships from the openly competitive market without causing as large an upward movement in freight rates,” stated Srivastava in a report released late last week.

Shipbrokers Arrow suggested that the most exposed vessel class was the handysize sector, of which around 16% of trade either loads or discharges in Russia or Ukraine, 10% being just Black Sea. A third of the trade was coal, with the rest mainly split across grains, steel and fertilisers.

Meanwhile the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has warned of supply chain disruption should the free movement of Ukrainian and Russian seafarers be impeded (see separate story). The Seafarer Workforce Report, published in 2021 by BIMCO and ICS, reported that there were 1.89m seafarers currently operating more than 74,000 vessels in the global merchant fleet, and, of these, 198,123 (10.5%) of seafarers were Russian, while Ukraine accounted for 76,442 (4%). With all Ukrainian airports and ports closed, all crew movements have stopped.

Wanna bet all those Russians will be happy to work for the western overlords and the Twitter moron ragemobs?

As to handys, well:

Handysize

handysize info

www.handysize.info

As the smallest of the deep seafaring bulk carrier vessels, the Handysize bulker is an essential part of the global dry bulk fleet. The bedrock of the global bulker industry, Handysize vessels have the advantage of flexibility in quick shipments, lower draft restrictions and rapid turnaround times. Traditionally considered as any bulk carrier in the size area between 15,000 dwt and 40,000 dwt, strict definitions vary. Classic Handysize bulker sizes, however, include 28,000 dwt, 32,000 dwt and 38,000 dwt.

As the smallest of the deep seafaring bulk carrier vessels, the Handysize bulker is an essential part of the global dry bulk fleet. The bedrock of the global bulker industry, Handysize vessels have the advantage of flexibility in quick shipments, lower draft restrictions and rapid turnaround times. Traditionally considered as any bulk carrier in the size area between 15,000 dwt and 40,000 dwt, strict definitions vary. Classic Handysize bulker sizes, however, include 28,000 dwt, 32,000 dwt and 38,000 dwt.


The ability of Handysize bulkers to load and discharge from small ports makes them especially attractive for regional trade. A typical Handysize vessel is fitted with cranes-geared in shipping parlance-which allows further flexibility in that such a vessel can load and discharge cargoes at ports that lack their own cranes or cargo loading infrastructure. The ability to transport a wide variety of cargo types is another strength of Handysize vessels, with these ships known for handling all manner of cargoes including minerals, ores, fertilizers, timber, woodchips, break bulk cargoes, grains, steel products and cement, among any number of other niche dry bulks.

So, yeah, Africa and parts of the middle east are fucked, as are a number of smaller, poorer countries.

Congratulations, Neocucks, neolibs, and reddit spergouts, you got your wish and you broke international trade and capitalism far worse than the USSR ever could by going ideological.

At this point I am pretty sure that all the banksters and hedgies and the US FED are going over to Biden and the Stete Department and the Military-Industrial complex lobby and screaming at them:

Ukrainians “hate” Russians so much that some in the occupied territories are currently turning in guns to the Russians. Not exactly the “resistance” Sean Hannity fantasized about arming “like the mujahadeen”.

"Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day. Teach a man to arbitrage and you will feed him forever.”

😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂

 

[King Arts]

You know all you Russia shills are looking silly. Russia is being humiliated by this war, the myth of the strong Russian army is broken. They are so scared of western pressure they threaten nukes. Not equivalent reprisals like I don’t know arming Iran or wherever America will invade next, probably because they secretly know they can’t afford to give out good weapons if they even have any. No it’s nukes the last crutch like North Korea.

 

[TheRejectionist]

You know all you Russia shills are looking silly. Russia is being humiliated by this war, the myth of the strong Russian army is broken. They are so scared of western pressure they threaten nukes. Not equivalent reprisals like I don’t know arming Iran or wherever America will invade next, probably because they secretly know they can’t afford to give out good weapons if they even have any. No it’s nukes the last crutch like North Korea.

It's more like the classical idea "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". Me especially, after the display of EU/NATO shows how many lack a moral ethical backbone in the political elites of Europe, who would have thrown us in gulags for refusing the vax pass and now are all for Ukraine.

So you cheering for Ukraine is not only cheering for the weird combination of Neonazis with a Jewish president backed by liberal elites, but you are also cheering with the same guys that wanted to us to be wiped us out for not being compliant, complacent lab rats.

The war is also not over yet and don't rely on only one source, OSINT is something I am getting acquainted and probably the only I would rely on from the West.

Especially not when the Ukrainian president says at the same time "we are winning/resisting" and then "we need help/no fly zone" to the US congress.

If they are winning, why need those ?

 

[Terthna]

You know all you Russia shills are looking silly. Russia is being humiliated by this war, the myth of the strong Russian army is broken. They are so scared of western pressure they threaten nukes. Not equivalent reprisals like I don’t know arming Iran or wherever America will invade next, probably because they secretly know they can’t afford to give out good weapons if they even have any. No it’s nukes the last crutch like North Korea.

They're definitely getting their butts kicked, I'll grant you that; though I still don't see Russia losing this in the end. Also, not a Russia shill; I didn't even vote for Trump in 2016. Though I did later vote for him in 2020, so maybe I'm half a Russia shill? Anyways, the point is that I really don't care one whit what you call me; whether it's a racist, sexist, or a Russia shill. I'm going to continue to call them as I see them.

 

[stephen the barbarian]

You know all you Russia shills are looking silly.

the dems have been calling me a nazi for 6 years. but they want me to send good people to die supporting actual nazis so that pedophile joes bank account is safe. fuck that shit.

 

[ATP]

All of it is correct and you have been consistently wrong and repeatably corrected going back dozens and dozens of pages. Ukraine is losing the war, all they are doing now is dying as martyrs, martyrs who will be forgotten. The sanctions won't work and the US is in complete collapse along with the EU. Its over. UkA has shown they aren't cowards and can give up the fight with an honorable surrender that spare the cities further siege warfare. If they don't, Putin will proceed to destroy any city that defies him with grid fire artillery till the rubble is rubble.



UkA counter-attack near Kyiv failed and Russians took the Panzerfausts they left behind.



These are kids they are throwing out in counter-attacks. UkA is scraping the bottom of the barrel.



Russian Forces attacking on the Kyiv Front.



More captured Western ATGMs.

Comrade @Agent23 , call your reputable Slavic Business Partner, we got more weapons for those looking for freedom.


Statement of the RuA MoD and looking at the ample video footage they have been pushing out on telegram and elsewhere, this list is accurate and showcases that UkA is net losing vehicles despite occasional captures. UkA is also losing its ability to maintain equipment and keep themselves fueled as well.



And again tonnage, not dollar value matters, and Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan (A Russian satellite) account for 40% of the wheat supply, Russia alone growing twice what the US does. Russia also controls the fertilizer market.

So the Middle East and India are not going to go along with sanctions, because hungry people overthrow governments. And the US is already seeing an explosion in lines at food banks due to rising food costs. EU nations are stopping food exports.

So this dollar value is useless compared to actual fucking tonnage. Get me tonnage exported and we will go from their bud.

Comrade KGB,we all knew that KGBstan must eventually win.
Your problem is - they planned to come as liberators and win till 6.3.22.That plan is dead,they achieved nothing,and ukrainian arleady hate them.

Yes,they could level ukrainians cities.You knew,survivors would hate russians more for that.
And ukrainains using new recruits? your beloved KGB is doing the same.Ukranian recruits defending against russian consprict would win as long as they have ammo.

Captured western stuff? you said that showing captured russian stuff is waging war on twitter.Why do you start doing the same now?

So,either Putin army is weak and lead by idiots,and they are really that incopetent,OR I WAS RIGHT,AND IT IS PART OF SECRET PUTIN-BIDEN PACT.
KGBstan made war long and bloody,Biden handlers get reprive from their crimes and could win election in 2022,and Putin could destroy Ukraine and russian army,which otherwise could made putch and save Mother Russia from KGB mafias which you support.

Good for everybody except destroyed Ukraine and russian army,but since when KGB cared about them?

 

[Marduk]

It's more like the classical idea "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". Me especially, after the display of EU/NATO shows how many lack a moral ethical backbone in the political elites of Europe, who would have thrown us in gulags for refusing the vax pass and now are all for Ukraine.

So you cheering for Ukraine is not only cheering for the weird combination of Neonazis with a Jewish president backed by liberal elites, but you are also cheering with the same guys that wanted to us to be wiped us out for not being compliant, complacent lab rats.

What kind of childish dualistic view of the world is that? There are more than 2 camps in world politics.
Liberal elites were also predictably hostile to ISIL, does that mean westerners who oppose the former should have simped for jihadists who want them just as dead as the liberals?
How does letting Ukrainian nationalists get wrecked by KGBstan help the cause of western nationalists?
Or perhaps you want western nationalists to just replicate liberal elite's idiocy of not listening to the ex-WP countries telling them for decades that KGBstan is not their friend, later, in their own way, because KGBstan fucking over other "partners" is somehow not clear enough to realize that this is the SOP for KGBstan, so they should ignore the problem and wait until KGBstan fucks them over specifically.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

What kind of childish dualistic view of the world is that?

It is the big gay that is radicalism. Any nuanced analysis or opinion is swallowed by hysteria.

 

[TheRejectionist]

What kind of childish dualistic view of the world is that? There are more than 2 camps in world politics.
Liberal elites were also predictably hostile to ISIL, does that mean westerners who oppose the former should have simped for jihadists who want them just as dead as the liberals?
How does letting Ukrainian nationalists get wrecked by KGBstan help the cause of western nationalists?
Or perhaps you want western nationalists to just replicate liberal elite's idiocy of not listening to the ex-WP countries telling them for decades that KGBstan is not their friend, later, in their own way, because KGBstan fucking over other "partners" is somehow not clear enough to realize that this is the SOP for KGBstan, so they should ignore the problem and wait until KGBstan fucks them over specifically.

1. It's not a worldview. While I agree that there are more than two camps, but since the pro-Ukranian camp is the same that wanted me as a social reject, outcast or worse, of course I am going to side with those on the opposite camp.
2. Hostile ? The same elites that did nothing after the strings of incidents involving rape, molestation and worse during the refugee crisis of 2014 ? The same that didn't do jack shit to actually contribute to lessening the ethno-social tensions between Europeans and Muslims but did everything to not talk about it AFTER MANY TERRORIST ATTACKS ? The same side that went in for the FSA in Syria EVEN when they were supported financially and materially by theocratic fundametalist monarchies in the Gulf or WHEN THEY STARTED TO DEFECT to the ISLAMIC STATE ?
3. The subject wasn't Euronationalism.
4. Same as above.

 

[Marduk]

1. It's not a worldview. While I agree that there are more than two camps, but since the pro-Ukranian camp is the same that wanted me as a social reject, outcast or worse, of course I am going to side with those on the opposite camp.

Ah, so by same logic, as i said, you're gonna support ISIL because the shitlibs say its bad?
To add to the irony, Ukraine itself is not big on coronafascism, so why the hell are you making this about those.

https://www.travelinglifestyle.net/countries-without-covid-travel-restrictions-no-test-no-quarantine/

1. Hostile ? The same elites that did nothing after the strings of incidents involving rape, molestation and worse during the refugee crisis of 2014 ? The same that didn't do jack shit to actually contribute to lessening the ethno-social tensions between Europeans and Muslims but did everything to not talk about it AFTER MANY TERRORIST ATTACKS ? The same side that went in for the FSA in Syria EVEN when they were supported financially and materially by theocratic fundametalist monarchies in the Gulf or WHEN THE STARTED TO DEFECT to the ISLAMIC STATE ?

And you know, the same ones who even under Obama bombed ISIL in Syria?
Its not changed by the fact that the same Obama administration wanted to get cheated and cucked by other "moderate beheaders".
Have some bloody nuance instead of kneejerk reactions that just happen to lead to your pre-conceived position.

 

[Terthna]

How does letting Ukrainian nationalists get wrecked by KGBstan help the cause of western nationalists?

Because getting involved means handing over war powers to the western establishment; and you'd have to be a fool to think they wouldn't abuse them. Besides; they're the ones responsible for propping us those "Ukrainian nationalists" in the first place, and creating this conflict.

Have some bloody nuance instead of kneejerk reactions that just happen to lead to your pre-conceived position.

The complete and total lack of self-awareness behind this statement is staggering.

 

[Marduk]

Because getting involved means handing over war powers to the western establishment; and you'd have to be a fool to think they wouldn't abuse them.

Well it seems to me the western establishment is involved, yet has no war powers, somehow.
Also since when is the western establishment huge fans of officially declaring wars?
Not that they even want to try, they aren't exactly that brave.

Besides; they're the ones responsible for propping us those "Ukrainian nationalists" in the first place, and creating this conflict.

Surrendering to empires is not a virtue, and certainly not an anti establishment right one.
Russia not understanding that Ukrainians don't want to be Russians is creating this conflict.

 

[ATP]

What kind of childish dualistic view of the world is that? There are more than 2 camps in world politics.
Liberal elites were also predictably hostile to ISIL, does that mean westerners who oppose the former should have simped for jihadists who want them just as dead as the liberals?
How does letting Ukrainian nationalists get wrecked by KGBstan help the cause of western nationalists?
Or perhaps you want western nationalists to just replicate liberal elite's idiocy of not listening to the ex-WP countries telling them for decades that KGBstan is not their friend, later, in their own way, because KGBstan fucking over other "partners" is somehow not clear enough to realize that this is the SOP for KGBstan, so they should ignore the problem and wait until KGBstan fucks them over specifically.

Indeed.Problem with KGBstan is,that their SOP mean that they would eventually fuck every country with which they made agreement.
That is why tsar Russia could partitioned Poland with Prussia and have 100 years of peace,when soviets planned to backstab their german allies after 2 years.They simply belive,that if they do not betray first,then they be betrayed later.

Current germany,if they manage to made another partition of Poland,would be taken by KGBstan later,too.

Sure,homogloba are bad - but ,KGBstan would not save anybody from them,only enslave.

 

[Zachowon]

the dems have been calling me a nazi for 6 years. but they want me to send good people to die supporting actual nazis so that pedophile joes bank account is safe. fuck that shit.

Who in government us saying for us to go and fight?
Because every turn every conference, they are always saying "We will not send troops into Ukraine" etc etc.
Congress doesn't want it, POTUS doesn't want it.

 

[Terthna]

Well it seems to me the western establishment is involved, yet has no war powers, somehow.
Also since when is the western establishment huge fans of officially declaring wars?
Not that they even want to try, they aren't exactly that brave.

That's not what I'm talking about here; I'm talking about them using the conflict as carte blanche to further silence anyone who speaks out against the establishment and their actions, and treat them like traitors. Which is already happening; in fact, it's been happening since 2014, with the most blatant example being the four years they spent accusing Trump of being a Russian asset.

Surrendering to empires is not a virtue, and certainly not an anti establishment right one.

Neither is fighting to keep a government comprised of crooks, bigots, and murderers in power; but that's what everyone who supports western Ukraine is doing.

Russia not understanding that Ukrainians don't want to be Russians is creating this conflict.

No; the United States and Europe not understanding that the Russians would not tolerate further encroachment by NATO, and deciding to yet again indulge in regime change created it.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Canada govt facing capacity issues after donating weapons to Ukraine

Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand revealed that the Trudeau govt had depleted its weapons stocks in its hurry to assist Ukraine. | OpIndia News

www.opindia.com

Not expecting problems at home is he?

 

[Sailor.X]

@Chiron you might be mixing up food as a whole and grains, for which the Russians, Ukraine and Kazakhstan account for over 25% of all exports.
There were literally 200 grain carrying ships stuck in the Black Sea since this thing started, and grains are a primary staple for most of the world.
Staples like Grain and rice are what actually counts, because that is what the majority of people consume on a daily basis.
All of California's organic raisins and avocados and almonds probably fetch a pretty decent price per kilogram, so does my favorite, grass-fed Black Angus steak.
But those things do not feed the poor, the working class, all the subsistence level, soon to be refugees from the Middle East and Africa.

Planting and harvesting in Ukraine are fucked, and complex supply chains do not realign themselves over night, especially after the protests and after oil hitting 120$ a barrel.

I am calling it now, Putin will not block exports of grain outright, since between the sanctions and western shipping company spergouts it will be hard to get it where it needs to go, the insurance premiums for ships operating in the Black Sea also spiked to over 30 times the previous number.
You also need the ships, the ports, the trucks to move all that extra cargo around.
So Putin doesn't even need to block some exports for the time being, but he can be very selective with who he sells his grains to, that being allies and friendly countries, since most probably ships transporting that grain will be non-western.
The Gulf Arabs might control the West's energy, but Putin probably controls a decent amount of their food now, so you can see a "virtuous cycle" forming for the Russians, with oil exporters that are not self-sufficient in food having to ask more for their oil because of food inflation.Hungary, for example, already banned food exports.

Wheat Exports by Country 2022

Wheat exports by country in 2022 plus a searchable database of all wheat shipping nations

www.worldstopexports.com

The ships that move the goods, hummm:

Huge Russian merchant fleet, Russian sailors, face uncertain situation | Insurance Marine News

Sanctions on the Russian-owned merchant fleet and/or sanctions on Russian commercial fleet crew could have a major effect on vessel availability over the next few months, according to Vivek Srivastava, senior trade analyst at VesselsValue. Srivastra said that potentially 7.4% of the world’s...

insurancemarinenews.com

Wanna bet all those Russians will be happy to work for the western overlords and the Twitter moron ragemobs?

As to handys, well:

Handysize

handysize info

www.handysize.info

So, yeah, Africa and parts of the middle east are fucked, as are a number of smaller, poorer countries.

Congratulations, Neocucks, neolibs, and reddit spergouts, you got your wish and you broke international trade and capitalism far worse than the USSR ever could by going ideological.

At this point I am pretty sure that all the banksters and hedgies and the US FED are going over to Biden and the Stete Department and the Military-Industrial complex lobby and screaming at them:





😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂

Looks at everything you just posted......

Horseshit. And this is my only reply to your Russia Shilling.