Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[GoldRanger]

Really

The Russians are pocketing and destroying the Ukrainian Army in detail. This is over except for the screaming.

Aaaaaaaaaany minute now....

 

[Arch Dornan]

Anyone checked into their analysis?

 

[JagerIV]

Aaaaaaaaaany minute now....

How long do you think reducing a pocket takes? How long have people here said it takes?

I've said if this is a short, victorious war for Russia it probably takes at least as long as the first Iraq War, so final combat operations wrap up in early to mid April.

If this has to be fought out to the Polish boarder, that most like takes some 8-9 months as they do 100 km ish pulses every month or so. If they don't have enough troops and two conscript call up periods don't add enough, which seems likely, it takes a couple years as they instead do two big offenses a year instead of one every month, maybe a summer and winter offensive, as the next round of conscripts get conscripted trained, and equipped and enough supplies get brought together for another offensive, but now Ukraine can do likewise.

So, that's my timeline: April is where we will see if this is a short war or a long war: I believe people have said Ukraine pre war had about a month of War Materials. I'm not sure Russia's reserves are that much deeper. So, late March/April we'll see if the Ukrainians have the resources to launch counter offensives that they've been keeping in reserves or if they really are an exhausted army and no long have the capacity to resist effectively, and if the Russians themselves still have the reserves to withstand a Ukrainian counterattack if they have the reserves for it, or the Russians have the reserves to exploit it.

If neither side wins by april, and there's not some negotiated end, then it settles into a long war, 9 months if its a relatively quick (rather than short) war, a couple of years if not.

But, if the cauldron thing is actually happening, well, in a siege your explicitly choosing to spend time rather than firepower: in a classical siege, the king decides that sitting outside the Walls for 6 months is cheaper than losing 5,000 troops or so that aggressively assaulting the walls takes.

Likewise, doing a cauldron means the commanders decided that encircling and letting the enemy tire themselves out over a period of time is cheaper than the number of casualties and material expenses necessary to reduce the enemy by firepower. This does however mean that the strategy takes, well, time. The WWII battle of Kiev encirclement lasted about 2 weeks from encirclement to surrender. My understanding is the encirclement hasn't actually happened yet.

 

[bintananth]

How long do you think reducing a pocket takes? How long have people here said it takes?

I've said if this is a short, victorious war for Russia it probably takes at least as long as the first Iraq War, so final combat operations wrap up in early to mid April.

If this has to be fought out to the Polish boarder, that most like takes some 8-9 months as they do 100 km ish pulses every month or so. If they don't have enough troops and two conscript call up periods don't add enough, which seems likely, it takes a couple years as they instead do two big offenses a year instead of one every month, maybe a summer and winter offensive, as the next round of conscripts get conscripted trained, and equipped and enough supplies get brought together for another offensive, but now Ukraine can do likewise.

So, that's my timeline: April is where we will see if this is a short war or a long war: I believe people have said Ukraine pre war had about a month of War Materials. I'm not sure Russia's reserves are that much deeper. So, late March/April we'll see if the Ukrainians have the resources to launch counter offensives that they've been keeping in reserves or if they really are an exhausted army and no long have the capacity to resist effectively, and if the Russians themselves still have the reserves to withstand a Ukrainian counterattack if they have the reserves for it, or the Russians have the reserves to exploit it.

If neither side wins by april, and there's not some negotiated end, then it settles into a long war, 9 months if its a relatively quick (rather than short) war, a couple of years if not.

But, if the cauldron thing is actually happening, well, in a siege your explicitly choosing to spend time rather than firepower: in a classical siege, the king decides that sitting outside the Walls for 6 months is cheaper than losing 5,000 troops or so that aggressively assaulting the walls takes.

Likewise, doing a cauldron means the commanders decided that encircling and letting the enemy tire themselves out over a period of time is cheaper than the number of casualties and material expenses necessary to reduce the enemy by firepower. This does however mean that the strategy takes, well, time. The WWII battle of Kiev encirclement lasted about 2 weeks from encirclement to surrender. My understanding is the encirclement hasn't actually happened yet.

When in doubt, oversupply your army and add a bit more, just in case.

It's how the US wages war and why this probably aprocyphal story might be true: In late-1942 a German Officer going over captured American supplies in Algeria? found fresh bread which was baked in upstate New York less than a week prior.

If the Ukranians are as prepared as J. Random American it won't be a two week seige. It'll be a several month long seige before the defenders surrender because they ran out of supplies.

 

[GoldRanger]

How long do you think reducing a pocket takes? How long have people here said it takes?

I've said if this is a short, victorious war for Russia it probably takes at least as long as the first Iraq War, so final combat operations wrap up in early to mid April.

If this has to be fought out to the Polish boarder, that most like takes some 8-9 months as they do 100 km ish pulses every month or so. If they don't have enough troops and two conscript call up periods don't add enough, which seems likely, it takes a couple years as they instead do two big offenses a year instead of one every month, maybe a summer and winter offensive, as the next round of conscripts get conscripted trained, and equipped and enough supplies get brought together for another offensive, but now Ukraine can do likewise.

So, that's my timeline: April is where we will see if this is a short war or a long war: I believe people have said Ukraine pre war had about a month of War Materials. I'm not sure Russia's reserves are that much deeper. So, late March/April we'll see if the Ukrainians have the resources to launch counter offensives that they've been keeping in reserves or if they really are an exhausted army and no long have the capacity to resist effectively, and if the Russians themselves still have the reserves to withstand a Ukrainian counterattack if they have the reserves for it, or the Russians have the reserves to exploit it.

If neither side wins by april, and there's not some negotiated end, then it settles into a long war, 9 months if its a relatively quick (rather than short) war, a couple of years if not.

But, if the cauldron thing is actually happening, well, in a siege your explicitly choosing to spend time rather than firepower: in a classical siege, the king decides that sitting outside the Walls for 6 months is cheaper than losing 5,000 troops or so that aggressively assaulting the walls takes.

Likewise, doing a cauldron means the commanders decided that encircling and letting the enemy tire themselves out over a period of time is cheaper than the number of casualties and material expenses necessary to reduce the enemy by firepower. This does however mean that the strategy takes, well, time. The WWII battle of Kiev encirclement lasted about 2 weeks from encirclement to surrender. My understanding is the encirclement hasn't actually happened yet.

I was responding to a person who thought this was going to be over in a week basically.

 

[JagerIV]

I was responding to a person who thought this was going to be over in a week basically.

And where has he said that? His argument since the beginning has more or less pre-suposed this would take longer than a week. he seems to have argued that their opening moves in the first day basically secured victory by preventing the Ukrainians from being in a position to fully mobilize, but I don't think he's ever really suggested it would be over over in a week.

 

[JagerIV]

When in doubt, oversupply your army and add a bit more, just in case.

It's how the US wages war and why this probably aprocyphal story might be true: In late-1942 a German Officer going over captured American supplies in Algeria? found fresh bread which was baked in upstate New York less than a week prior.

If the Ukranians are as prepared as J. Random American it won't be a two week seige. It'll be a several month long seige before the defenders surrender because they ran out of supplies.

Well, yes, the infinite money strategy is nice when you can do it. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are in such a position of course. Two weeks does somewhat pre-suppose that they do manage to 1) complete the encirclement, and 2) keep up the pressure. J. Random American with a bit of warning can probably buy enough pasta to keep himself fed for several months without difficulty. If he still had to drive to work every day as well... stockpiling enough gas is much more challenging.

So, if they were encircled and left alone, probably hold out a while. If they're encircled and still subject to artillery and air attacks, requiring regular repositioning of forces and expending their own shells in counter battery fire, that burns through potentially thousands of tons of supplies with limited re-supply. On top of everything expended so far.

But, they could have enough resources to slug that out, and either prevent an encirclement or hold out long enough for an encirclement to be broken. Depends how much steam is left in the Russian forces and what the conditions of the Ukrainian mobile reserves are.

We'll probably get a relatively clear idea of those, and wheather the broader Russian encirclement strategy, if that is what their doing, as well as the state of the Ukrainian military, late march to early April. That will tell us most likely if this is a short or a long war.

 

[bintananth]

Well, yes, the infinite money strategy is nice when you can do it. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are in such a position of course. Two weeks does somewhat pre-suppose that they do manage to 1) complete the encirclement, and 2) keep up the pressure. J. Random American with a bit of warning can probably buy enough pasta to keep himself fed for several months without difficulty. If he still had to drive to work every day as well... stockpiling enough gas is much more challenging.

So, if they were encircled and left alone, probably hold out a while. If they're encircled and still subject to artillery and air attacks, requiring regular repositioning of forces and expending their own shells in counter battery fire, that burns through potentially thousands of tons of supplies with limited re-supply. On top of everything expended so far.

But, they could have enough resources to slug that out, and either prevent an encirclement or hold out long enough for an encirclement to be broken. Depends how much steam is left in the Russian forces and what the conditions of the Ukrainian mobile reserves are.

We'll probably get a relatively clear idea of those, and wheather the broader Russian encirclement strategy, if that is what their doing, as well as the state of the Ukrainian military, late march to early April. That will tell us most likely if this is a short or a long war.

Probably a long war.

Seiges are not pleasant and the beseiging party has to either go into a rats nest of "the casualty list will be 'yes'" or just sit back and wait while hoping that the defeners run out of food and water before they do.

 

[Sir 1000]

Oh look, another edgelord.

Edgy? nah i just recognize an enemy when i see them. Western ''journalists'' are no friends of normal Americans, especially white ones.

 

[GoldRanger]

And where has he said that? His argument since the beginning has more or less pre-suposed this would take longer than a week. he seems to have argued that their opening moves in the first day basically secured victory by preventing the Ukrainians from being in a position to fully mobilize, but I don't think he's ever really suggested it would be over over in a week.

The part where he praised Georgia for surviving 11 days against the Russian invasion in 2008, framing it in a way that suggests he meant "as opposed to Ukraine".

 

[Agent23]

And they are much more resiliant than most American homes ...

Plastic siding, a 5/8" sheet of plywood, 4" (100mm) fiberglass insulation, 5/8" of drywall, and some paint ain't stopping either a bullet or a tornado.

Yeah, I've heard about the "versitility" of your plywood and plastic housing, the British love em, too, and the price is massive.
As to me, well I live in a brick and concrete new-ish apartment block with half a meter of rock wool insulation, I barely have to turn on the heating, even now when it is under -9C outside.

 

[bintananth]

Yeah, I've heard about the "versitility" of your plywood and plastic housing, the British love em, too, and the price is massive.
As to me, well I live in a brick and concrete new-ish apartment block with half a meter of rock wool insulation, I barely have to turn on the heating, even now when it is under -9C outside.

50cm of insulation behind brick and concrete?

That's much sturdier than my home and I don't live in the usual American BS. My home was built in 1941 and is uninsulated because there is cross bracing in the structure and asbestos in both the plaster and the tiles.

 

[Agent23]

50cm of insulation behind brick and concrete?

That's much sturdier than my home and I don't live in the usual American BS. My home was built in 1941 and is uninsulated because there is cross bracing in the structure and asbestos in both the plaster and the tiles.

Not behind but in front of, it wraps around the apartment building.

 

[bintananth]

Not behind but in front of, it wraps around the apartment building.

So, exposed to the weather and everyday wear and tear instead of shielded?

That's still 5 times as much insulation as the typical American home and over 3 times thicker than what's theoretically possible in mine if a hazmat team does it.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Most of Ukraine's forces were in the East with a lot probably guarding Kiev.
Russia is hitting the soft Underbelly and turning the whole of Eastern Ukraine into one, huge Cauldron.

I will open a bottle of vodka to that if Russia wins this war.

I will drink another if it looses.

 

[Chiron]

You know they're in NATO, right?

That gigantic alliance that's already sent billions of dollars of weapons and supplies into Ukraine? Which includes the wealthiest country on Earth, who's President just specifically announced a multinational humanitarian aid effort?

Irrelevant to the fact the food and gas doesn't exist to make a difference.

So lemme get this straight. You're of the opinion that the three million refugees already created by this war are already threatening a NATO member states' ability to feed its people, and you think NATO would sit by quietly while the Russian Federation engaged in systematic mass murder guaranteed to generate millions more refugees?🤔

Yes as the alternative is nuclear destruction. And at the end of the day, the US isn't going to trade US cities for European cities and European nations are not going to burn for the Ukraine or Eastern NATO nations.

NATO is effectively dead as the European Members disarmed themselves and the US de-industrialized and went woke and broke.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

So lemme get this straight. You're of the opinion that the three million refugees already created by this war are already threatening a NATO member states' ability to feed its people, and you think NATO would sit by quietly while the Russian Federation engaged in systematic mass murder guaranteed to generate millions more refugees?🤔

Oh, they wouldn't sit by quietly. They'd be very noisy on TV, and on twitter. Maybe even on faceberg!

 

[planefag]

Irrelevant to the fact the food and gas doesn't exist to make a difference.

The United States is the world's top food exporter and the fourth-largest natural gas producer on the planet.

Yes as the alternative is nuclear destruction. And at the end of the day, the US isn't going to trade US cities for European cities and European nations are not going to burn for the Ukraine or Eastern NATO nations.

Ah, would you look at that. You didn't say "non-NATO nations," you said European nations. Put your finger right on it. Because if NATO lets Russia have Ukraine because they say "or else I'll nuke you!" there's not as much stopping them from doing it to Poland, next. And that's precisely why NATO is flooding Ukraine with billions of dollars of advanced weapons and feeding them constant intelligence collected by some of the most sophisticated ELINT and SIGINT platforms in the world. NATO is killing Russian soldiers right now with their actions - quite a few. Why would they risk that? To send a message.

"You are crossing our red lines."

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

The United States is the world's top food exporter and the fourth-largest natural gas producer on the planet.



Ah, would you look at that. You didn't say "non-NATO nations," you said European nations. Put your finger right on it. Because if NATO lets Russia have Ukraine because they say "or else I'll nuke you!" there's not as much stopping them from doing it to Poland, next. And that's precisely why NATO is flooding Ukraine with billions of dollars of advanced weapons and feeding them constant intelligence collected by some of the most sophisticated ELINT and SIGINT platforms in the world. NATO is killing Russian soldiers right now with their actions - quite a few. Why would they risk that? To send a message.

"You are crossing our red lines."

Our red lines are next to worthless. America is shambling its way into a civil war thanks to a stolen election and medical tyranny, our ability to enforce anything is suspect, and everyone outside of our media bubble knows it.

 

[Chiron]

The United States is the world's top food exporter and the fourth-largest natural gas producer on the planet.

On a per ton basis which actually matters, Russia exports more food than the US which is also reliant on Russian Potash and other fertilizers. Oh and US truckers are on strike, and fuel costs are taking others off the road. So good luck getting shit where it needs to go. So world agricultural crash this year. Every "Western" Economy is fucked. Russia is shrugging off the sanctions and India, China, and Brazil know which way the wind is blowing. So do the Gulf States which refuse to answer Biden's calls while taking Putin's calls.

Ah, would you look at that. You didn't say "non-NATO nations," you said European nations. Put your finger right on it. Because if NATO lets Russia have Ukraine because they say "or else I'll nuke you!" there's not as much stopping them from doing it to Poland, next. And that's precisely why NATO is flooding Ukraine with billions of dollars of advanced weapons and feeding them constant intelligence collected by some of the most sophisticated ELINT and SIGINT platforms in the world. NATO is killing Russian soldiers right now with their actions - quite a few. Why would they risk that? To send a message.

"You are crossing our red lines."

Russia will do what it feels is in its interests. As things stand they are winning the war, the Ukrainians are barely holding on and western aid is being captured in such large numbers by Russian troops they are even training on them. What the Russians don't capture, gets blown up before it even gets to fire. Less than 1% of NATO lethal aid even gets fired at Russian Troops. The overwhelming vast majority of Russian losses are from Soviet base weaponry that they and Ukraine use.

Europe will do nothing and is in collapse. Same for the US. American Hegemony is dead. What the Taliban didn't kill, Russia finished off.