bintananth
behind a desk
"Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion", which is exactly what I said when I said BLEVE.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
- Start date
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
According to some media outlets, like Taibbi, the actual start of the war took a lot of people in the command chain by massive surprise.
Also, we are seeing a lot of fresh recruits being sent into war.
IMHO something forced his hand and Russian war plans were excessively optimistic.
No, the Internet as we have it todaygrew out of something called ARPAnet, which is the U.S. Advanced Research Projects Agency Network, it was created as a communications and control network to be used in the event of nuclear war.
There are key pieces of web infrastructure you can hit, you can also force last mile providers to blacklist stuff, but as a whole the system is created to be extremely fault tolerant.
What should these Russian hackers have done?
DDoS Twitter, Facebook and Google?
That would in effect mean trying to ddos 2 of the top 3 cloud providers on the planet, they have massive computational resources, 24/7 IT SecOps teams and extremely capable DDoS protection.
You would need actual, physical hardware to do an attack, and there just ain't enough hardware to sustain something like that and not get your IPs and whole subnet ranges cut off on the level of a hardware-based firewall that probably uses dedicated cirquitry to do wirespeed filtering.
Attack military infrastructure?
That traffic, if it hits the public internet at all, is probably tunneled and encrypted.
2. I think they are keeping those in reserve, they did manage to destroy most of the Ukrainian airforce the first day, the majority of Ukrainian forces are pincered near the Donbass and Kiev is encircled.
IMHO they do not want to risk warplanes needlessly and are afraid of potential collateral damage.
MacGregor has stressed it already, they went in with kid gloves and the Ukrainians are merely prolonging the inevitable!
Frankly, I am starting to think that maybe, just maybe Russia is giving the Zelenski regime more time and rope so that they can slow-choke themselves, then they can use the prolonged negotiations and war as a propaganda tool against his regime.
3. The logistics weren't set up properly because a lot of the Russian forces got hit with this out of the blue.Also check out my posts about what I will be calling Agent23's Eastern European Inventory law!
A temporary distraction at best, Brandon still has much to answer for, and the combined economic fallout of this bullshit as well as of the COVID money printing will haunt the fucker.
Furthermore, this war will prove again that the old moron is all talk and no walk,and his sanctions will backfire on him.
US companies are losing market share, US investors are losing money, the dollar is strengthening due to the crisis, thus eroding US corporate profits from abroad even further, and the Western financial system's position is shaken by its weaponization.
IMHO the only thing that will benefit in the long run, in the USA, is Trump's Revenge Tour.
1.Even if Putin hackers are not that good as i thought,they still could do much more to Ukraine then they did
2.Planes was not used
3.Attack of 4 fronts mean,that logistic must fail.
If they wonted victory,they would take kiev arleady.
So,either Putin and all his commanders are idiots,or they wont long bloody war,not victory.Which mean,they are plotting with Biden handlers.
About Brandons - remember,democrat states would vote for him,as long as he show big bad Putin.Both Biden and Putin need this war.
China and Soros,too,of course.
Floridaman
Well-known member
Paging george bush, paging George bush./cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/J4NRHLZFIZJYTD2YMSTYTW3XDE.jpg)
Russia, without evidence, says Ukraine making nuclear "dirty bomb"
Russian media cited an unnamed source on Sunday as saying that Ukraine was close to building a plutonium-based "dirty bomb" nuclear weapon, although the source cited no evidence.www.reuters.com
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Uh, huh, yeah, sure, I got The Ghost of Kiev's original airplane to sell you...Because its stupid to do so when enemy artillery and airforce is looking for targets.
There is a whole lot of expats returning specifically to fight, even though out of all people they could have easily dodged conscription by not returning.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/LKCZ6KDNC5LY3EIGSXO3OMP6TY.jpg)
Over 66,200 Ukrainian men have returned from abroad to fight, says defence minister
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Saturday that 66,224 Ukrainian men had returned from abroad to join the fight against Russia's invasion.
But Ukrainina men inside Ukraine aren't nearly as interested in the fighting if what we have seen thus far where draft dodging attempts is concerned is taken into account.
I am too lazy to make a Chemical Ali of Kiev meme.
However, with Chernobyl and a bunch of working nuclear powerplants they at least have the capacity to make dirty bombs, as opposed to Iraq.
And there are all the dumb thugs of Azov, who would probably jump at the chance.
Mobile nerve gas factories, anyone?
Chiron
Well-known member
Have a list of the 700+ vehicles Russia has been proven to have lost since this began.
Half of these losses have been fact checked to either be Ukrainian Gear with Russian Markings hastily painted on, or from earlier clashes in the Donbas going back years.
But for argument, I will give you all of these.
It makes no difference at the operational level.
The UkA is collapsing and unable to launch a Corps level counter attack to extract its troops from Donbas Front or in the Northeast. As the Northeast Pockets surrender, UkA's losses will enter crippling levels and Kyiv will become indefensible.
Whatever his material losses, Putin will make them good and more when the Operational Encirclements conclude in UkA surrenders.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
I don't understand why they didn't hit the Ukrainian AA a hell of a lot harder in the opening salvo, damn it?!?!
I am betting that we will see some more interesting revaluations regarding covid and U.S. Biolabs in the coming days/weeks, when the reeing morons are off their dopamine high and from a non-Russian source.
Also, it is interesting that we are getting precious little intel from the south-east, could it be that maybe the Uks don't want to admit just how fucked up their situation over there is, or that there are other embarrassing revelations?
Oh, and several key points I just heard from friends:
1) 20k Ukrainian refugees in hotels in one of our port cities, with the government paying about 20 Euros per person per day.
2) Apparently a bunch of Americans came in here to train with some of our military, the sergeant/senior enlisted told our guys to "remember who liberated us."
Not by anyone reputable they haven't...
So that's literally just you making stuff up again.
Chiron
Well-known member
Ok not like Reverse Image Search and Registries don't exist
The War in Ukraine
Okhtyrka has been surrounded, indicating a breach of the Kharkiv Front. Tokmak and Vasylivka are in Russian Hands. Renewed Russian operations to clear Sumy pocket.
There is a UkA attempt to relieve Mariupol but it lacks sufficient force to be successful. Same it looks like for the UkA counter-attack at Druzinha on the Western Kyiv Front. Also on that same front, the Russians are trying to widen their MSR by taking more of the E373 road west of Kyiv where it passes through Ukrainka with a possible follow up to seize Malyn. No movement yet down the Ovruch-Korostein Road yet by Russian Forces.
My prior assessments along with others still stands. The UkA is unable to operationally change the situation.
3 days since the latest comment, 9 days since the original one. "Quickly" indeed. "Already over". Aaaaaany minute now...
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
So you admit you're literally making things up... Got it...Ok not like Reverse Image Search and Registries don't exist
They don't need to change the situation, they just need to wait for the Russian troops to run out of supplies and fuel while picking off everything they can.
Because simple fact, the current loss rates are literally not sustainable for Russia for the months, let alone years, they are going to need to be sitting on Ukraine.
Can you prove they are fake?Ok not like Reverse Image Search and Registries don't exist
The War in Ukraine
Okhtyrka has been surrounded, indicating a breach of the Kharkiv Front. Tokmak and Vasylivka are in Russian Hands. Renewed Russian operations to clear Sumy pocket.
There is a UkA attempt to relieve Mariupol but it lacks sufficient force to be successful. Same it looks like for the UkA counter-attack at Druzinha on the Western Kyiv Front. Also on that same front, the Russians are trying to widen their MSR by taking more of the E373 road west of Kyiv where it passes through Ukrainka with a possible follow up to seize Malyn. No movement yet down the Ovruch-Korostein Road yet by Russian Forces.
My prior assessments along with others still stands. The UkA is unable to operationally change the situation.
Chiron
Well-known member
Not during the initial Chinese push, as it took a bit for the skies to be wrested.
Chiron
Well-known member
It took the US 3 weeks to beat Iraq and 1 week to mop up the remaining formations against an enemy that largely said nope and deserted.
That is pretty fast in terms of military operations.
As it is, the Russians are holding roughly the same percentage of Ukraine as the US held in the 11th day and are facing a foe that is fighting. But the operational picture remains unchanged. The Russians still have UkA pocketed in the North East, Kyiv under siege from 2 axis, and the UkA is unable to extricate their Donbas and Kharkiv fronts from combat. And the South Front is strangling the ability of Ukraine's economy to even function.
The Russians gave themselves a minimum of 15 days to defeat the Ukrainians, who to their credit are willing to fight, but even if the Ukrainians hold out as long as Iraq did, the Russians would still have done better than the US did as it would have defeated a Peer Industrial State with the same force ratios while employing less firepower, and against far greater resistance than the US did.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Sounds like a real failure of combined arms, intelligence and overcompensation via carpet bombing of cities, then.
Although in all fairness, the US doctrine and equipment have both changed a lot since then, probably because of lessons learned in Korea and in Vietnam.
Furthermore, the Americans actually thought that they could world police solely on the basis of their nuclear capabilities, with them having to IIRC purchase back conventional weapons and Ammo from West Germany/Britain for real money after selling it to them for scrap prices.
Also, the conflict was the best think to have happened to the Japanese arms industry, which got revitalized by US demand for ammo.
Post-Vietnam Nixon wanted a hell of a lot more investment into high tech weapons, close in air support and protective gear, so the USA's doctrines and military make-up changed drastically.
Also, the Mao takeover of China caught them napping and also infuriated their China/Asia lobby massively, they were literally caught with their pants down multiple IMHO, however I think that they would have managed to muster enough naval and army assets to stop the initial advance.
Long-term, the key aid came from the USSR in the form of those MiGs as well as heavier weapons, also didn't McArthur do a rather successful flanking maneuver after the initial Chinese surprise?
Chiron
Well-known member
The problem for the US was they drank their own Kool-Aide and drew all the wrong lessons from WW2 where they fought a rich man's war while the Soviets' lessons were ignored. They also drew all the wrong conclusions as to the German defeats.
The Soviets on the other hand once the war was over, massively overhauled their Army, accelerating the reforms once Stalin was dead and no longer team-killing them.
So when the Chinese hit them and threw all their plans in the toilet, they suffered an operational shock and were routed where as if they had kept their cool, and utilized their advantages and aggressively counter-attacked in Corps level formations, they would have thrown the Chinese back.
The US also took thier time and was moy on a time crunch, and wasn't having massive protests at home about it, wasn't having major desertions ot anything.
Russia trri3d to tush it
Doomsought
Well-known member
This is basically going to be like the Korean or Vietnam war, except in europe with the sides flipped as far as strategy goes.
All I'm going to say is that I'm glad I live close enough to likely targets in a Russian nuclear strike on the US that I won't have to deal with the aftermath. Hope you neocon warmongers are happy with yourselves and have real big epeens right about now, I'm looking at you, Zach.