Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[Agent23]

Yeah, overall, I'd say the invasion is overall a mistake on Russia's part. They'll get Ukraine, but basically restrengthened the EU and NATO, while shoving the EU back under the US. This, after about 20 years of efforts trying to destroy both (I'm not saying that Euroskeptics are russian agents, but obviously Russia doesn't like the EU/NATO and has made some efforts to damage it like Nordstream, etc).

Meanwhile, either through propaganda or reality, Russia's military has been quite successfully portrayed as incompetent. This could change with their pause and resupply, but their initial tactics were failures (in the sense they should be doing much better) and weird (as if they expected a quick win, sorta like the US thinking that we'd be welcomed as liberators).

I expect the outcome of this to be as follows:
Russia gets a puppet government in Ukraine, which either won't last or will have to be occupied, which Russia can ill afford.

Finland and maybe Sweden join NATO, completing the European NATO wall. NATO is now more unified, and more under America's control, than ever. A big fall in Euroskepticism and moves towards the EU (Le Pen is screwed, for example).

And that's the chief reason I think this is a long-term loss: Russia could have done nothing but sell gas and oil for the next 30-40 years while being a decent neighbor, and the EU would have shrunk and NATO would become a shell of itself. Instead, he gets a puppet Ukraine. But then again, seeing that far into the future is near impossible, so who knows?

First off, NATO and the EU are two separate things.
Originally the idea for the original European Coal and Steel Community was to create an alternative to the two main power blocks that were trying to lord over Europe, namely the USSR and the USA.
It was a rightwing economic project, first and foremost.
Frankly, a lot of the Europhiles dislike America and want Europe to be the top dog in the world.
Look no farther than all of the EC's squabbles with US big tech.
One explanation for it was that it hides German strength and French weakness.
It also works as a guaranteed, subsidized markets for the exports of both, along the line it became a source of cheap labor, nurses and doctors, construction workers, plumbers, manufacturing outsourcing, etc.
Then, you also had the British and the usual desire of the bureaucracy to expand fiefdoms:



In the mid to long term I see the EU as a whole losing markets and having to pay even more for energy, and the various industrial interests in the old EU core will hate that.
Admitting refugees from Ukraine while losing markets in Russia and whatever part of Ukraine becomes part of their sphere will hurt them, and I am pretty sure the likes of Schultz, Macron, and the various industrial and financial interests in France and Germany hate what is going on and they will blame the current crop of bureaucrats in the EU for it.
On a purely national level, France loves to take change and the EU army project they constantly badger us all with is just an outgrowth of that desire.
As to Germany, well, I doubt they want to pay more for defense and they would probably prefer to stop NATO expansion and just have the EU secure whatever is already within it.
Ukraine was something the Eurocracy and some economic interests wanted, but IMO of it had been put to a vote among the corporate interests, and they knew that the option was it or trade with Russia they probably would have chosen the later.

A bigger EU working closer with the USA and with less access to Russian markets and less ability to expand will face problems.
The USA and the EU are economic competitors and the EU won't want their fiefdom left wide open for the US, and neither do they like being dragged into the usual Democracy-promoting adventures the Americans so enjoy.
Germany and France were pretty firmly against involvement in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan, closer ties to the USA will make it necessary for them to involve themselves in that stuff more.

The EU basically screwed its richer core in order to pander to peripheral and exceedingly loud countries like Poland and the Baltics and also managed to overstretch massively!
The baltics are good little doggies, but Poland is not, so I see them trying for more internal consolidation and going against the Poles, who shill for the British and the USA and will push back on all sorts of things, from demands for more social liberalism to attempts to put into place more EU-wide financial regulations and limit the penetration of US and UK firms.

At some point western tax payers will get sick of paying more for Eastern countries that vote in opposition to their interests and interest of their countries as well as those of the EU in general.

The truth is that aside from outsourcing and cheap workers and markets most new acquisitions east of the Vistula have been pretty much a net loss, they take in more money than they contribute, they are corrupt and they come with all sorts of baggage and aggressive aspirations, like Poland and the Baltics.

As to Ukraine, I disagree that Putin will keep it whole, I am pretty sure that Eastern Ukraine will probably get separated from the west, we will probably see 2 or 3, even 4 countries where now we see one, East Ukraine will get split between the DPR and LPR, or maybe they will just form a Donbass republic.
The west has always been more pro-European and anti-Russian, so I am pretty sure that Putin will prefer to see it turn into a separate country with some legal provision in its constitution to keep it unaligned and demilitarized.

However, there is another problem, that of the various Romanian, Polish and Hungarian minorities.
Frankly after the war I think some of those areas will want to go to their more prosperous Hungarian, Romanian and Polish "relatives".

This will escalate since the Ukrainians will be beaten down and their territorial integrity, and thus part of their national myth and pride, will be broken.

This also adds a possible poison pill in the relations between the rump western Ukraine and the EU, as well as perhaps between separate EU countries that might want to gobble up the same territory.

IMO the situation for Euroskeptics will become better, not worse.

 

[Chiron]

They need any resources, not Russian ones specifically. Meanwhile, the basic rule of economics is, if Russia has no alternative but China to make deals with, Russia will not be getting favorable deals at all.

Russia is the only game in town for critical resources, the rest are in hostile hands or vulnerable to naval interception or India saying fuck it lets rumble. Also Russia is an industrial state and has a real economy that doesn't rely on financialization. If anything, their people will become debt free and their Oligarchs made poor and having to live in 3 houses instead of 4 houses.

So the economic war won't bring it to its knees, on the contrary it will spur re-investment into Russia's own infrastructure and industrial capabilities.

I gave you the numbers form Chechnya. That of course is true for any country that vast majority of the population doesn't become insurgents, anywhere in the world, ever. So far Ukrainians are more willing to fight than ever expected.
If we scale these numbers to population, we may be talking of as much as a million resistance fighters. Even if Ukrainians are only quarter as militant as Chechens, its still quarter million, a big fucking force to deal with for any occupation army.
Or in other terms, if we assume just 1% of Ukrainians are angry nationalists who want to fight no matter what, its still 400k people.

Putin will flood the area with MVD troops, round up people into camps, and make it clear, you can accept his silver or eat his lead.

Worked in Chechnya. The only way to counter is a 100% commitment to victory and a relentless guerrilla war of suicide bombings and killing of collaborators and such. Most Chechs decided taking Putin's silver was better than eating his lead.

So far only the Taliban have shown the stomach to endure absolute privation to win. ISIS we will have to check back on in a few years unless Africa catastrophically collapses to their campaigns over there anytime soon.

 

[Marduk]

Russia is the only game in town for critical resources, the rest are in hostile hands or vulnerable to naval interception or India saying fuck it lets rumble. Also Russia is an industrial state and has a real economy that doesn't rely on financialization. If anything, their people will become debt free and their Oligarchs made poor and having to live in 3 houses instead of 4 houses.

So the economic war won't bring it to its knees, on the contrary it will spur re-investment into Russia's own infrastructure and industrial capabilities.

But so far no one is doing naval interceptions and everyone follows market rules instead.

Putin will flood the area with MVD troops, round up people into camps, and make it clear, you can accept his silver or eat his lead.

What MVD troops? Chinese?
There is nowhere near close enough of them to flood whole Ukraine. Or even half of it. One oblast, maybe.

Worked in Chechnya. The only way to counter is a 100% commitment to victory and a relentless guerrilla war of suicide bombings and killing of collaborators and such. Most Chechs decided taking Putin's silver was better than eating his lead.

Worked in Chechnya which is 1/20 the size and population. Did they grow 20 times in numbers since then?

So far only the Taliban have shown the stomach to endure absolute privation to win. ISIS we will have to check back on in a few years unless Africa catastrophically collapses to their campaigns over there anytime soon.

Taliban's trick was that they endured it in Pakistan.

 

[Chiron]

But so far no one is doing naval interceptions and everyone follows market rules instead.

Iran would beg to differ, so would some others.

What MVD troops? Chinese?
There is nowhere near close enough of them to flood whole Ukraine. Or even half of it. One oblast, maybe.

Russia has a draft and a willingness to level places. It also will find collaborators and build them into an effective police force to do the dirty work for them.

Worked in Chechnya which is 1/20 the size and population. Did they grow 20 times in numbers since then?

Collaborators can always be found comrade. A little silver here and there, some lead here and there. Works like a charm.

Taliban's trick was that they endured it in Pakistan.

Less than 5% of the Taliban operated out of Pakistan and the bulk were REMFs and thrill seekers. The majority of the Taliban stayed in Afghanistan and wintered at their home towns till the Spring. Pakistan is a useful scapegoat, but the reality is the Taliban took the countryside, built a vast network of supplies, informers, and secure areas with which to wage war. All right under the US's nose.

Mullah Omar hid within walking distance of a major US Base.

Big nationalists, wearing nazi simbols and not a single Kolovrat in sight.

I hope these nazi larping bitches get tapped harder by the Kadirovtsi and the DNR/LNR than Zhukov tapped Berlin...

Also, despite the Universal draft they still have such a large number of females, humm, sounds like these nazi-larping sluts are either there for PR or because there just aren't enough men to fight.

Remember all the Afghan Military Women stating how they would crush the Taliban?

Well they surrendered quite meekly when the Taliban actually shot back at them.


@Zachowon

The US was fighting a 3rd world militia masquerading as an Army. UkA is a Professional Force trained in Mass Maneuver Warfare. Losses were going to be heavy if the UkA didn't surrender. Hence the use of Eastern Divisions in the opening attack to draw out the UkA's commandos in local counter attacks that while looking good on Social Media, are militarily useless.

My point here was that UkA is unable to inflict a fatal blow to the Russians as it unable to mass a Corps Level attack and thus is being pocketed as they frittered their mobile reserves in local counter attacks on the first echelons and they were in turn flanked by the second echelons which pocketed some of them. Now the Soviets are committing the 3rd echelons for the deep battles.

The shambolic nature of the 1st echelon's attack was on purpose. The troops up till they were fired on, didn't know they were going to war. Not even the Brigade Leaders till they were given couriered maps from Division knew.

And if they didn't know, they couldn't post on social media and Ukraine couldn't do a mass mobilization which would have disrupted their economy. All the highly publicized drills also did the same thing by creating the impression the Russians were just rattling sabres.

This meant Ukraine would never be able to do more than local counter-attacks against Eastern Divisions and then perceive success and pursue, right into the traps set for them by the better prepared second echelons who had at most 8 hours briefing after the 1st echelons committed.

Now the main efforts are going in with full logistical support.

 

[Marduk]

Iran would beg to differ, so would some others.

Who are they intercepting?

Russia has a draft and a willingness to level places. It also will find collaborators and build them into an effective police force to do the dirty work for them.

Putin's next election will be a funny time if he pulls the draft card.

Collaborators can always be found comrade. A little silver here and there, some lead here and there. Works like a charm.

Weighted against the chances of getting a bullet from the other side.

Less than 5% of the Taliban operated out of Pakistan and the bulk were REMFs and thrill seekers. The majority of the Taliban stayed in Afghanistan and wintered at their home towns till the Spring. Pakistan is a useful scapegoat, but the reality is the Taliban took the countryside, built a vast network of supplies, informers, and secure areas with which to wage war. All right under the US's nose.

Taliban Active in Pakistan as Dead and Wounded Militants Arrive from Afghanistan

Afghan government and US have long blamed Pakistan for not acting against the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan

www.voanews.com

They were so home in Pakistan that they not only brought the wounded to its hospitals, they even brought over the dead to be buried there.

Sayed Nazir, a retired brigadier general of the Pakistani army, said “Pakistan has admitted” to the presence of the Taliban in Pakistan.

“Their houses, their families or their children (are in Pakistan). They have access to education and health care,” said Nazir, adding that Pakistan has leverage over the group.

Mullah Omar hid within walking distance of a major US Base.

And died 9 years ago.

Remember all the Afghan Military Women stating how they would crush the Taliban?

Well they surrendered quite meekly when the Taliban actually shot back at them.

Well that was the problem, hardly anyone in Afghanistan was interested in fighting for that government. This is not the case in Ukraine, obviously.

 

[Chiron]

Who are they intercepting?

Oh oil to Syria and other places Iran has trade agreements with.

Putin's next election will be a funny time if he pulls the draft card.

Russia has a draft to begin with and do you think Putin cares about the few loud mouths?

Weighted against the chances of getting a bullet from the other side.

Putin has four doors and more whores, unless you're a saint, Putin is a better bet.

Taliban Active in Pakistan as Dead and Wounded Militants Arrive from Afghanistan

Afghan government and US have long blamed Pakistan for not acting against the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan

www.voanews.com

They were so home in Pakistan that they not only brought the wounded to its hospitals, they even brought over the dead to be buried there.

Miniscule compared to the actual size of the Taliban and their years long hold on multiple Afghan Villages and regions year round which the US never cleared them out of.

And died 9 years ago.

And was in walking distance of a US Base whose soldiers never realized he was right there or noticed his son come for a visit to confirm his father's death and pay his final respects.

Well that was the problem, hardly anyone in Afghanistan was interested in fighting for that government. This is not the case in Ukraine, obviously.

They're throwing criminals on the front lines. The draft age males are fleeing in large numbers, and the UkA never had time to mobilize. So they lack Corpse level maneuver groups to counter the Russian Army.

Whatever Putin's losses in the first and second echelons, they would have been far higher if the Ukrainians had been able to mobilize their reserves and form up Corps level maneuver groups.

So the shambles of the 1st echelon where troops and even brigade leaders didn't realize they were going to war till the last moment, served its purpose in frittering Ukrainian Mobile Reserves in local counter-attacks.

 

[Agent23]

What nazi? did they come from naziland? GERMANS.
and no,it is not german symbol,but hinduist.Black sun,just like black swastika,existed there for thousend of years till german freaks in 19th century start interesting about it.

And why would Ukrainian (para)military units wear a Hinduist symbol?
Perhaps they are all in the same Yoga club?
I am pretty sure that they are seeing it as part of the Austrian Hypster's symbology, not that of the Hindus.

P.S since we are all uppose to be members of western cyvilisation here,please stop naming as sluts womans which you do not like.We are not in elementar school run by leftists.

Another thing - UE is not helping Poland economically - 80% of every Euro send here is coming back to germans.,and they get more from not paing border tariffs.
Only countries which EU help are germany,holland and MAYBE belgium.All others lost.

They are whoring themselves out to an ideology that says all Slavs must be starved to death, that makes them whores in my book.

And yeah, the way the EU's rules are made, they give you 70% of the money for the project, then they make you buy materials for the project fulfillment from them, with local contractors and politicians pocketing a lot of the money that is not used for the materials.
We still nominally get more than we formally put back in, though.
Poland, though, got its structural fund money cut severely, so you might be net contributors at this point.

 

[Marduk]

Oh oil to Syria and other places Iran has trade agreements with.

Well sucks for Iran. China however is a great power who isn't under this kind of sanctions and has an actual navy in case they were.

Russia has a draft to begin with and do you think Putin cares about the few loud mouths?

Oh i'm pretty sure it would be more than few if he mobilized reserves.

Putin has four doors and more whores, unless you're a saint, Putin is a better bet.

Russia is not Saudi Arabia, or even America when it comes to bribing people. If they have a whole 40 million country to bribe, its simply going to be short. They struggle to even pay their soldiers decently.

Miniscule compared to the actual size of the Taliban and their years long hold on multiple Afghan Villages and regions year round which the US never cleared them out of.

Do you have any trustworthy numbers on that?

They're throwing criminals on the front lines.

You are dramatically exaggerating the meaning of this. It is usual practice in countries in a major war.

Truly America must have been losing that war...

 

[Chiron]

Well sucks for Iran. China however is a great power who isn't under this kind of sanctions and has an actual navy in case they were.

Said Navy is half sunk if it has to convoy supply shipments verses having them delivered by rail from Russia. China knows this and its why it ignores US sanctions and has been aggressively working to get America to deindustrialize itself.

Oh i'm pretty sure it would be more than few if he mobilized reserves.

Which he has done on more than a few occasions for major exercises out east.

Russia is not Saudi Arabia, or even America when it comes to bribing people. If they have a whole 40 million country to bribe, its simply going to be short. They struggle to even pay their soldiers decently.

Low pay means more can be spent on gear, and their pay is tax free. That and their conscripts, their motivation is to win quickly so they can get home.

Do you have any trustworthy numbers on that?

Do you? But hey, ask yourself if Taliban being based in Pakistan makes logical sense? Or just read Bette Dam's works on the matter, "digs deep into the Afghanistan Thread to find a prior post," her full book details how the Taliban actually operated in Afghanistan, often under the US's own nose. It was a popular insurgency embedded fully into the Afghan Villages and operating in the open. Most did not trust Pakistan due to their known double dealings. And logically the Taliban couldn't sustain their control of Afghanistan from Pakistan or maintain their numbers as the Pakistanis followed a different Deobandi School of Jurisprudence.

You are dramatically exaggerating the meaning of this. It is usual practice in countries in a major war.

Truly America must have been losing that war...

Largely because we were running out of Infantry and didn't want to reallocate service troops or manpower from elsewhere to infantry units. Its a desperation move of a nation running out of reliable manpower.

But back on topic:

Western 'Experts,' are slowly starting to realize Russia is winning.

Bill Roggio figured it out early on as did many others.

Lets go over a few things:

In the age of social media, people post shit they shouldn't. Putin took advantage of it.

The first echelon right up to Brigade Leaders though they were on a sabre rattling exercise. They even were given return tickets for home and were telling their families they would be back soon. UkA was listening in on all this and told Zelensky that Putin was sabre rattling, not enough logistics in place, no need to mobilize reserves.

Then Brigade Leaders had couriers show up with sealed orders and maps and had just a few hours to read the orders and give battalion commanders new instructions, said commanders had at most a few minutes to tell their troops to simply drive in a certain direction.

For the average Russian Soldier in the first echelon, this summed up what happened to them:


Now here and there, a hard charging officer excelled, but for most of these groups, they ran into local counter-attacks and panicked and pulled back. Ukrainians seeing them pull back, pursued, falling into an operational trap. Ukrainian Officers reinforced success and sent out their mobile reserves.

Then the 2nd echelon troops hit. These troops had a day and a half of prep time at a minimum and as far as they knew were doing a road march exercise right up till they heard the 1st echelon went in. They had more logistics in place, but they were never meant to be the killing blow, their job was to engage the Ukrainian Mobile Reserves attacking the 1st echelon and either destroy them or pocket them and open the doors for the marshalling 3rd echelon that is going in now.

As shambolic as it seems, it was operationally brilliant, kept UkA from mobilizing, and means in the long run far fewer Russians and Ukrainians die if both had waited to fully mobilize. Because lets face it, if UkA had been fully mobilized with all its Corps and Army level assets ready, the death toll would easily go into the millions as both sides slammed into each other.

 

[Chiron]

Sunk by who? If it goes that far, we're in WW3 territory.
Rail through Russia will move no more than few percent of the goods they need to move to Europe.

Ever heard of virtual attrition? Every ship convoying a trade shipment is one ship not attacking another target. Also ship A has a top speed of 28 knots and carries X amount of cargo across route Z once every 20 days. Ship B has a top speed of 12 Knots and carries X amount of cargo across Route Z once every 42 days. Due to submarines, they have to travel together and due to the escorts need to periodic refuel and other issues, the transit now take 63 days.

50% attrition of ships by virtual attrition.

Another way to look at it. I have plane A with four pylons. My enemy is located at X. Due to the range I must carry a fuel pod. I expect to encounter enemy fighters and thus must carry a missile. There are heavy SAM concentrations and AAA, so I must carry a jammer pod. I thus can only carry one bomb to attack one target. So by virtual attrition I lost 3 aircraft from other targets as we need 4 bombs on target to have a Pk of 99.9%.

Its actually far more complicated than this, especially with nuclear targeting when you realize 88 missiles are needed to take out a single early radar warning site south of Moscow just to ensure a few nukes survive the ABM shield over it and account for missiles that fail in-flight for various technical reasons.

But not for a fairly unpopular war with major losses, that's a whole different situation.
And look how that worked out.
>conscripts
>highly motivated
You are arguing against the conventional wisdom here.

The Red Army, Vietnamese Peoples Army, Army of the United States (WW1 to WW2), et al say hi comrade. Also Russian Troops have won their wars. They may bitch about how they're fought, but they won.

The Taliban insurgency is, above all, a Pashtun thing. They live on the Pakistan-Afghanistan borderland, and they have a very... negative attitude towards the official border.

If we ignore their large contingents of Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara units, plus their holding the Afghan Countryside through the winter months, etc. You are as delusional as the US Military Commanders prosecuting the war.

Well guess what, Ukraine also doesn't want to reallocate manpower from elsewhere.
Boots on the ground are boots on the ground, of course they want more.

What they needed was large Corps and Army level formations mobilized before the invasion to deter the fight from happening.

>millions
And here again you demonstrate so obviously that you have no idea what you're talking about that your whole theory is not even worth reading. What millions?
Wars that last years are required for millions, just armies slamming into each other over weeks, whoever suffers few hundred thousands in losses is going to fucking collapse long before millions.

Demonstrating you have no clue how mass maneuver warfare between industrialized states with professional conscript armies work.

If both side had fully mobilized and clashed, you would see the cities obliterated by artillery divisions, not battalions, but divisions of artillery, resulting in mass civilian causalities and military deaths.

Armored clashes with hundreds to a few thousand AFVs across grid fire artillery of both sides plastering the area. Counter-battery fires would force both sides to re-shift tubes every few shots before retaliatory fire arrives.

Every approach would have mines all over the place plus unexploded ordinance and hedgehogs of strong points.

This quickly results in both sides digging in and fighting a methodical trench war till one side stops being able to do a controlled retreat and catastrophically collapses in a strategic route or simply runs out of people to throw into the grinder.

This fight can easily result in millions dead, especially if one side escalates to WMDs to break the stalemate.

This is a fight Putin wants very much to avoid as he needs Ukraine relatively intact. Hence the 1st and 2nd Echelons could know nothing till it was too late, because they would have blabbed on social media. Third echelons had more briefings and the VDV and Spetnaz who are more reliable and trusted troops would have had specific briefings a week before hand and officers most likely vacationed as normal citizens in Ukraine a month before hand to scope out their objectives.

Because if Zelensky got any forewarning he considered credible, the UkA would have mobilized its reserves with all their Corps and Army level assets.

 

[Marduk]

Ever heard of virtual attrition? Every ship convoying a trade shipment is one ship not attacking another target. Also ship A has a top speed of 28 knots and carries X amount of cargo across route Z once every 20 days. Ship B has a top speed of 12 Knots and carries X amount of cargo across Route Z once every 42 days. Due to submarines, they have to travel together and due to the escorts need to periodic refuel and other issues, the transit now take 63 days.

50% attrition of ships by virtual attrition.

Another way to look at it. I have plane A with four pylons. My enemy is located at X. Due to the range I must carry a fuel pod. I expect to encounter enemy fighters and thus must carry a missile. There are heavy SAM concentrations and AAA, so I must carry a jammer pod. I thus can only carry one bomb to attack one target. So by virtual attrition I lost 3 aircraft from other targets as we need 4 bombs on target to have a Pk of 99.9%.

Its actually far more complicated than this, especially with nuclear targeting when you realize 88 missiles are needed to take out a single early radar warning site south of Moscow just to ensure a few nukes survive the ABM shield over it and account for missiles that fail in-flight for various technical reasons.

I know what virtual attrition is. That doesn't change the fact that:
-This doesn't matter until WW3.
-Once WW3 happens, it will happen fast enough one way or another for this situation not to last very long in context of ship turnover.
-The total capacity of Russia's railways to move cargo between EU and China is... pitiful compared to the amount of cargo that needs to get there. Its superfreighters or bust.

The Red Army, Vietnamese Peoples Army, Army of the United States (WW1 to WW2), et al say hi comrade. Also Russian Troops have won their wars. They may bitch about how they're fought, but they won.

Still doesn't mean they were highly motivated.

If we ignore their large contingents of Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara units, plus their holding the Afghan Countryside through the winter months, etc. You are as delusional as the US Military Commanders prosecuting the war.

>large
10-20% is not large.

What they needed was large Corps and Army level formations mobilized before the invasion to deter the fight from happening.

Wouldn't have worked. The decision was already made, and no amount of posturing would have changed Putin's mind, at least from Ukraine's direction.

Demonstrating you have no clue how mass maneuver warfare between industrialized states with professional conscript armies work.

>professional conscript armies.
Yeah, sure.

If both side had fully mobilized and clashed, you would see the cities obliterated by artillery divisions, not battalions, but divisions of artillery, resulting in mass civilian causalities and military deaths.

And the equipment would have come from where? Real life is not Red Alert. We do have a decent idea about how much gear each side has in reserve.

Armored clashes with hundreds to a few thousand AFVs across grid fire artillery of both sides plastering the area. Counter-battery fires would force both sides to re-shift tubes every few shots before retaliatory fire arrives.

In few instances, yes. But these kind of battles are called decisive battles for a reason. They can't be a routine thing. Afterwards the war would be settled, with one side too broken to continue.

This is a fight Putin wants very much to avoid as he needs Ukraine relatively intact. Hence the 1st and 2nd Echelons could know nothing till it was too late, because they would have blabbed on social media.

So? All western intel was screaming for months about preparations for invasion. Everyone had sat photos. Anyone with half a brain knew that the largest concentration of forces in Europe since Cold War is not just an innocent exercise. If some Russian grunts babbled on social media 3 days before, it would have changed nothing. Especially when that's about when Ukraine has begun mobilization anyway.

Third echelons had more briefings and the VDV and Spetnaz who are more reliable and trusted troops would have had specific briefings a week before hand and officers most likely vacationed as normal citizens in Ukraine a month before hand to scope out their objectives.

We all know how that worked out for the VDV.

Because if Zelensky got any forewarning he considered credible, the UkA would have mobilized its reserves with all their Corps and Army level assets.

Possibly. On the other hand he still had politics to consider, launching and maintaining mobilization is expensive, both politically and economically. There is no telling how long could Putin hold up the Damocles sword if he decided to.
And last but not least, we still don't know how much did Ukraine manage to mobilize anyway.

 

[Omnimercurial]

Whoever is in charge of logistics, I'm surprised they haven't quit yet.

They even still have 40 F-14s in flyable condition with 3 more in overhaul and thanks to an under-the-table deal with South Korea, even have 64 F-4s still flying after the South Koreans, 'accidentally,' shipped them enough parts to build 30 of them.

But yeah as another poster said, this is common knowledge, what rock have you been living under? Then again the US lost to the Taliban and still can't figure out the difference between fighting a Colonial War with a 3rd world nation and fighting a Mass Maneuver War with an industrial nation. Ah well.



TOS-1s are now in action. An indication UkA's counter-battery capabilities have been knocked out or degraded enough to not take out these bad boys.

Overall, its looking more and more clear the Ukrainian Military no longer has the means to counter-attack in a strong enough blow to throw the Russians back, nor the means to wrest the skies from the Russians, or engage in effective counter-battery fires.

Despite an on paper, impressive SRBM capability, it has not been able to hit Russian staging bases, the missiles either being intercepted or the launchers unable to pop up long enough to launch without being whacked.

Zelensky has no good options anymore.

Making me nostalgic for the "never was" Super Tomcat....

 

[Chiron]

I know what virtual attrition is. That doesn't change the fact that:
-This doesn't matter until WW3.
-Once WW3 happens, it will happen fast enough one way or another for this situation not to last very long in context of ship turnover.
-The total capacity of Russia's railways to move cargo between EU and China is... pitiful compared to the amount of cargo that needs to get there. Its superfreighters or bust.

It matters now, because shame if pirates hijack that ship. Also Russia has good rail connections to China and a secure port nearby to them as well.

Still doesn't mean they were highly motivated.

Comrade, in Russia we have ways of motivating you. And victory invalidates all arguments because at the end of the day, we're still partying in your house, drinking your tea, and screwing your mistress for cigarettes. So cheap she is.

>large
10-20% is not large.

They made up half their numbers and have seats at the table. Its a big reason the state collapsed rapidly, because the Taliban spent a good 12 years wooing these groups to join and used their allegiances to preposition forces to slowly strangle the Afghan Road network over the next 7 years before finishing the job in 21. US General's decision to concede the countryside sealed the nation's fate.

Wouldn't have worked. The decision was already made, and no amount of posturing would have changed Putin's mind, at least from Ukraine's direction.

A strong show of resolve certainly would have and make Putin recalculate. Nothing says nope than 1.1 million armed Ukrainians formed up in organized units saying 'fuck you Putin!'

>professional conscript armies.
Yeah, sure.

Red Army, Vietnamese Peoples Army, Army of the US (WW1 to WW2), et al say hi comrade. And we won our wars too.

And the equipment would have come from where? Real life is not Red Alert. We do have a decent idea about how much gear each side has in reserve.

It would have been manufactured as both side are industrial states and Ukraine can import ammo from its neighbors.

In few instances, yes. But these kind of battles are called decisive battles for a reason. They can't be a routine thing. Afterwards the war would be settled, with one side too broken to continue.

Decisive battles would be avoided by Ukraine, the goal is to prevent a catastrophic operational encirclement and keep the Army in the field.

So? All western intel was screaming for months about preparations for invasion. Everyone had sat photos. Anyone with half a brain knew that the largest concentration of forces in Europe since Cold War is not just an innocent exercise. If some Russian grunts babbled on social media 3 days before, it would have changed nothing. Especially when that's about when Ukraine has begun mobilization anyway.

And for years earlier. The 1st echelon had their stuff rail freighted in without their normal logistical units and were engaged in clear training missions right up till Brigade Commanders received their sealed orders. The second echelons road marched and were having units fall out due to normal breakdowns that even NATO units have because shit just breaks down if you look at them sideways. Zelensky saw all of this because his intelligence units were monitoring social media and the 1st echelon's unencrypted comms. He was also seeing the 2nd echelon's road marches without much in the way of logistical preparation.

The 3rd echelons operated under strict silence and moved when satellites could not see them till they wanted to be seen and they were more dispersed till it was time to concentrate them.

Had the 3rd echelon been detected in time, it would have been clear the shit was going to hit the fan and Zelensky would have hit the panic button and mobilized everyone a full week before hand.

Zelensky and the West were completely blindsided by the Invasion. They always figured Putin would simply give the Donbas Militias more gear and maybe a few more less hidden reinforcements and do a limited advance with plausible deniability.

We all know how that worked out for the VDV.

They succeeded and were relieved before being overran, Kyiv was forced to deploy its best troops outside the city where they were wiped out and mobile reserves were spent in local counter-attacks.

This is operational warfare at work. Whatever their tactical successes, the UkA was not able to contest the Southern Front which now threatens the Operational Encirclement of the Eastern Ukraine. For all practical purposes, the Ukrainian State is done for.

Possibly. On the other hand he still had politics to consider, launching and maintaining mobilization is expensive, both politically and economically. There is no telling how long could Putin hold up the Damocles sword if he decided to.
And last but not least, we still don't know how much did Ukraine manage to mobilize anyway.

Then he should gone to Pimp Daddy Putin in the wake of the fall of Afghanistan and implemented Minsk and wrote off Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea in exchange for Pimp Daddy not bitchslapping him. He chose poorly. His only real option now is to die with honor as a martyr.

 

[Marduk]

It matters now, because shame if pirates hijack that ship. Also Russia has good rail connections to China and a secure port nearby to them as well.

What pirates? Pirates are above all a problem for easily blackmailed westerners with legalistic attitudes towards violence, as fucking with them is relatively safe and gets ransoms paid.

Rail is still rail. "Good" is relative. Vast majority of China's trade with Europe goes by ship for a damn reason.

Comrade, in Russia we have ways of motivating you. And victory invalidates all arguments because at the end of the day, we're still partying in your house, drinking your tea, and screwing your mistress for cigarettes. So cheap she is.

Even if they win, they will still be poorer than ever, going back to shit in outhouses, which they will continue to do for long thanks to this. There's their "motivation".

They made up half their numbers and have seats at the table. Its a big reason the state collapsed rapidly, because the Taliban spent a good 12 years wooing these groups to join and used their allegiances to preposition forces to slowly strangle the Afghan Road network over the next 7 years before finishing the job in 21. US General's decision to concede the countryside sealed the nation's fate.

So they weren't core Taliban, just a bunch of tribal groups bribed to play along, business as usual.

Fanfiction. US generals weren't ceding shit, because since the handover 2014 they were only providing limited support, especially air support. Road network? That was Afghan's problem since then.

A strong show of resolve certainly would have and make Putin recalculate. Nothing says nope than 1.1 million armed Ukrainians formed up in organized units saying 'fuck you Putin!'

100k or a million, Putin still thought they won't fight, and the number of troops who don't fight doesn't matter as the amount of fighting stays the same.

Red Army, Vietnamese Peoples Army, Army of the US (WW1 to WW2), et al say hi comrade. And we won our wars too.

Against... other conscript armies.

It would have been manufactured as both side are industrial states and Ukraine can import ammo from its neighbors.

Again i repeat, real life is not Red Alert. It takes months to years to manufacture that. Not days. In the quantity you are implying here, many years.

And for years earlier.

No, the numbers were considerably lower earlier.

Zelensky and the West were completely blindsided by the Invasion. They always figured Putin would simply give the Donbas Militias more gear and maybe a few more less hidden reinforcements and do a limited advance with plausible deniability.

LOL. What kind of alternate reality do you live in? Have you forgotten how everyone was laughing at western intel for warning of incoming invasion since months?
How Russia's officials were complaining about "fake invasion claims" 3 months ago?

Russian Chief of General Staff Slams Reports About 'Imminent Invasion of Ukraine' as Fake | Farsnews Agency

'
If there was any failure on the western side here is that Zelensky didn't trust western intel enough.
You are writing crappy alternate history here.

Then he should gone to Pimp Daddy Putin in the wake of the fall of Afghanistan and implemented Minsk and wrote off Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea in exchange for Pimp Daddy not bitchslapping him. He chose poorly. His only real option now is to die with honor as a martyr.

And here comes more alternate reality.
How hard does it have to be to understand that LNR, DNR and Crimea are purpose built frozen conflicts meant to fester and generate excuses for further actions?
The ultimate of which is what is happening now. The skirmishing with separatists was a lasting, easily unfrozen excuse to do a regime change when circumstances are right. Because Russia needs Ukraine to be an empire. Not 5% of Ukraine, not 10% of Ukraine, at least most of it. So there they go, to install a puppet government.

 

[Chiron]

What pirates? Pirates are above all a problem for easily blackmailed westerners with legalistic attitudes towards violence, as fucking with them is relatively safe and gets ransoms paid.

Rail is still rail. "Good" is relative. Vast majority of China's trade with Europe goes by ship for a damn reason.

1. They still menace shipping and cause delays which is also why large numbers of warships from multiple nations patrol the waves to suppress them. Then there is just state sanction piracy for plausible deniability.

2. And China still needs Russia's resources and it still has easier access to them via the most secure routes via sea from the rest of Europe and which is not disruptable.

Even if they win, they will still be poorer than ever, going back to shit in outhouses, which they will continue to do for long thanks to this. There's their "motivation".

They will actually come out of this richer, debt free, and the sanctions will backfire on the EU which needs their gas and will quickly start rethinking about staying dependent on the US.

So they weren't core Taliban, just a bunch of tribal groups bribed to play along, business as usual.

With the exception of the Hazaras who are Shia, no, they are fully Taliban and buy into their ideology, many of the leaders were part of the pre-2001 Taliban as well.

Fanfiction. US generals weren't ceding shit, because since the handover 2014 they were only providing limited support, especially air support. Road network? That was Afghan's problem since then.

Bill Roggio invites you to the Long War Journal where he documents US Special Forces raids and large scale actions from 2014 to 2020. We'll see who reads fanfiction.

100k or a million, Putin still thought they won't fight, and the number of troops who don't fight doesn't matter as the amount of fighting stays the same.

Oh he expected them to fight, what he didn't want was a protracted attritional struggle. Hence the need to draw the Ukrainians into a false sense of security and then when the hammer fell, they needed be drawn into local counter-attacks that would set them up to be flanked and pocketed by the 2nd echelon.

Against... other conscript armies.

US soldiers sent to Vietnam were volunteers, the conscripts went to Europe or were kept home. The USMC was an all volunteer force. Also it would have been impossible to win WW1 or 2 without conscription.

Again i repeat, real life is not Red Alert. It takes months to years to manufacture that. Not days. In the quantity you are implying here, many years.

Comrade, the factories never sleep. Especially with all the tin pot dictators around the world who spray and pray.

No, the numbers were considerably lower earlier.

Institute for the Study of War invites you to its articles going back years on Russian drills.

There have drills larger than this, with fully encrypted radios.

LOL. What kind of alternate reality do you live in? Have you forgotten how everyone was laughing at western intel for warning of incoming invasion since months?
How Russia's officials were complaining about "fake invasion claims" 3 months ago?

Russian Chief of General Staff Slams Reports About 'Imminent Invasion of Ukraine' as Fake | Farsnews Agency

'
If there was any failure on the western side here is that Zelensky didn't trust western intel enough.
You are writing crappy alternate history here.

The wolf had been cried too much before, Putin was counting on that as he only needed to psych one man, and one man only. Hence giving the 1st and 2nd echelon's unencrypted radios, and letting them blab about how the exercise sucked, shit keeps going broke, oh I got leave, mom I will be back on x day, etc. Zelensky and his Generals were hearing all that and got lulled into a false sense of security.

After that, Putin just did this to the 1st echelon:


Their sacrifice won't be in vain.

And here comes more alternate reality.
How hard does it have to be to understand that LNR, DNR and Crimea are purpose built frozen conflicts meant to fester and generate excuses for further actions?
The ultimate of which is what is happening now. The skirmishing with separatists was a lasting, easily unfrozen excuse to do a regime change when circumstances are right. Because Russia needs Ukraine to be an empire. Not 5% of Ukraine, not 10% of Ukraine, at least most of it. So there they go, to install a puppet government.

And how hard is it for you to understand the only person that mattered in all of this is Zelensky and what he perceived the situation to be. Putin only had to fool him, everyone else was irrelevant and had removed themselves from the game beforehand.

 

[Marduk]

1. They still menace shipping and cause delays which is also why large numbers of warships from multiple nations patrol the waves to suppress them. Then there is just state sanction piracy for plausible deniability.

And those patrols work on pirates regardless of who may become their target.
And in case of Chinese, the pirates would still not consider them the most optimal targets. At least if westerners catch them, they have human rights and shit.
State sanction piracy? Westerners? I'll believe it when i see it.

2. And China still needs Russia's resources and it still has easier access to them via the most secure routes via sea from the rest of Europe and which is not disruptable.

And they would be even more convenient if they weren't owned by Russia

They will actually come out of this richer, debt free, and the sanctions will backfire on the EU which needs their gas and will quickly start rethinking about staying dependent on the US.

Pure fantasy. Rich like North Korea.

With the exception of the Hazaras who are Shia, no, they are fully Taliban and buy into their ideology, many of the leaders were part of the pre-2001 Taliban as well.

Yeah, right.

Taliban Struggle to Maintain Unity Six Months Into Their Reign

“People don’t trust us yet, but we’re working on it,” one Taliban commander said.

foreignpolicy.com

Taliban Accused Of Forcibly Evicting Ethnic Uzbeks, Turkmen In Northern Afghanistan

The Taliban has been accused of forcibly displacing hundreds of ethnic Uzbek and Turkmen residents in Afghanistan's northern province of Jowzjan. Ethnic Uzbeks and Turkmen say Pashtun nomads have seized their homes and land with the help of the Taliban, a predominately Pashtun group.

gandhara.rferl.org

Taliban form all-male Afghan government of old guard members

The Taliban's interim government for Afghanistan is all men and stacked with veterans of their hard-line rule from the 1990s and the 20-year battle against the U.S.

apnews.com

Bill Roggio invites you to the Long War Journal where he documents US Special Forces raids and large scale actions from 2014 to 2020. We'll see who reads fanfiction.

In what world it is special forces' job to hold roads in a country the size of Afghanistan?
Obviously no one has enough special forces to do that, nevermind the few thousands USA had deployed there. Its something that takes an army.

US soldiers sent to Vietnam were volunteers, the conscripts went to Europe or were kept home. The USMC was an all volunteer force. Also it would have been impossible to win WW1 or 2 without conscription.

As usual, you are clueless.

The Military Draft During the Vietnam War · Exhibit · Resistance and Revolution: The Anti-Vietnam War Movement at the University of Michigan, 1965-1972

A Michigan in the World Project

michiganintheworld.history.lsa.umich.edu

Although only 25 percent of the military force in the combat zones were draftees, the system of conscription caused many young American men to volunteer for the armed forces in order to have more of a choice of which division in the military they would serve.

Comrade, the factories never sleep. Especially with all the tin pot dictators around the world who spray and pray.

Dude, this is not the era of T-34 and Sherman, where your memes belong. Modern weapons are much more complicated and take way more time to build.

Institute for the Study of War invites you to its articles going back years on Russian drills.

There have drills larger than this, with fully encrypted radios.

And those weren't held around Ukraine.

The wolf had been cried too much before, Putin was counting on that as he only needed to psych one man, and one man only.

Zelensky and the West were completely blindsided by the Invasion.

Nice dynamic adjustment of alternate history version.
So was Zelensky blindsided, or was the West blindsided too?

 

[Free-Stater 101]

US soldiers sent to Vietnam were volunteers, the conscripts went to Europe or were kept home.

This isnt true in the slightest, I know because my grandfather and most of his military friends were draftees they didn't 'volunteer' for anything.

 

[Floridaman]

This isnt true in the slightest, I know because my grandfather and most of his military friends were draftees they didn't 'volunteer' for anything.

I kew a few Vietnam vets who ”volunteered” that way they got to pick the branch of the military they entered rather than get shoved in the army.

 

[Chiron]

And those patrols work on pirates regardless of who may become their target.
And in case of Chinese, the pirates would still not consider them the most optimal targets. At least if westerners catch them, they have human rights and shit.
State sanction piracy? Westerners? I'll believe it when i see it.

The US armed the Contras who beheaded people and spared not even US Citizens or Catholic Clergy and Nuns. We also supported Pinochet who had specially trained dogs to rape women with. Then there was Afghanistan. Do we need to go on?

And they would be even more convenient if they weren't owned by Russia

Comrade, the Chinese can't be a world power without Russia and has to deal with Putin on the basis of equals.

Pure fantasy. Rich like North Korea.

EU collapses without Russian Gas and China needs Russian Resources, not to mention all the nations that plain don't give a shit about the US or EU sanctions.

Yeah, right.

Taliban Struggle to Maintain Unity Six Months Into Their Reign

“People don’t trust us yet, but we’re working on it,” one Taliban commander said.

foreignpolicy.com

Taliban Accused Of Forcibly Evicting Ethnic Uzbeks, Turkmen In Northern Afghanistan

The Taliban has been accused of forcibly displacing hundreds of ethnic Uzbek and Turkmen residents in Afghanistan's northern province of Jowzjan. Ethnic Uzbeks and Turkmen say Pashtun nomads have seized their homes and land with the help of the Taliban, a predominately Pashtun group.

gandhara.rferl.org

Taliban form all-male Afghan government of old guard members

The Taliban's interim government for Afghanistan is all men and stacked with veterans of their hard-line rule from the 1990s and the 20-year battle against the U.S.

apnews.com

I'm old enough to remember these news organizations saying the Taliban is tired, Kabul will hold, etc. So is Bill Roggio. Is there some friction amongst the Taliban? Yes but not a destabilizing one, considering they have an internal affairs department dedicated to shoring things up. Is there score settling despite orders from on top to knock it off? Yes, and the perpetrators are brought to justice.

In what world it is special forces' job to hold roads in a country the size of Afghanistan?
Obviously no one has enough special forces to do that, nevermind the few thousands USA had deployed there. Its something that takes an army.

Then what is the point, you might as well surrender if you won't keep your supply lines open.

As usual, you are clueless.

The Military Draft During the Vietnam War · Exhibit · Resistance and Revolution: The Anti-Vietnam War Movement at the University of Michigan, 1965-1972

A Michigan in the World Project

michiganintheworld.history.lsa.umich.edu

2/3 of the men who served in Vietnam were volunteers. 2/3 of the men who served in World War II were drafted. Approximately 70% of those killed in Vietnam were volunteers.

Dude, this is not the era of T-34 and Sherman, where your memes belong. Modern weapons are much more complicated and take way more time to build.

We're talking ammo, but the tubes can be cranked out fast and downgraded M models of gear can be cranked out fast as needed.

And those weren't held around Ukraine.

Oh they were and in a more threatening manner.

Nice dynamic adjustment of alternate history version.
So was Zelensky blindsided, or was the West blindsided too?

Both, but Zelensky was the only one they needed to pysch.

The west was still thinking the Separatists would get greater support and Russian Troops would openly stay in separatist territory as peace keepers and increase the costs to Ukraine and make limited thrusts to get more defensible terrain.

Then the Russians attacked on multiple fronts and made a direct thrust at Kyiv. This the west was not expecting as it indicated Putin sought the complete de bellatio of Ukraine.

 

[Zachowon]

Someone saying the US sent Special forces to hold roads?
What? That is literally NOT thier job. Green berets are to train friendly forces and form an insurgency, or perform small team strike missions.
Most Special forces are for small team stuff, not things that could have them engage a larger force.
Supply lines are protected by MPs and armed convoy routes. You have checkpoints throughout to be able to be places to go from point to point.
Sire ambushes happen but it allows quick retaliation from a closer checkpoint