Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[AnimalNoodles]

Elaborate on the social structure part here, please?

As for the terrain:

As for demographics, total population also matters, not just the total fertility rate.

And was Northern Ireland conductive for an insurgency during The Troubles? Because that I think is what is most likely here. Well, that and/or mass emigration from Ukraine to the West.

Socially atomised and deconstructed populations with a dearth of young males are far less conducive to strong insurgencies than tribal and clan based societies with a strong family structure and a surplus of young males.

 

[Megadeath]

I don't agree with that assesment.

Germany was still capable of fighting the Allies on even terms. Japan was not.

I mean... That's self evidently untrue. If they could have fought back on anything like even terms, they wouldn't have been pushed back to, and lost, their capital.

 

[ATP]

I don't want to read maps. I won't understand the finer details. I want words words words words words words words words words that I check out from multiple sources who talk about all the shit and understand shit I wasn't aware of.

The western media source is to confirm my suspicion about their enthusiasm about the coming ass raping Russia's getting for Putin to be fucked all for a sudden to slowly admit Russia's getting gains.

Which they should get 3 months ago.And,if they mobilize,they would take entire Donbas,maybe even Kiev,even now.
So,real problem is WHY Moscov do not mobilized and take Ukraine.
There are 2 possibiities:
1.Their logistic is so fucked,that they could not maintain that.
2.They have some secret deal with Biden owners for long war.

In Both cases,Moscov would not win,at least not in this year.

 

[ATP]

You do not get to choose your army. You work with what you've got.

The Zulus, for example, managed to make things very difficult for the British Army. The Brits had breech-loading rifles. The Zulus used stone spears.

Assagais were made from iron.And they buy some rifles.
And even then,british would not lost that one battle if their ammo was available to them.

 

[Marduk]

Which they should get 3 months ago.And,if they mobilize,they would take entire Donbas,maybe even Kiev,even now.
So,real problem is WHY Moscov do not mobilized and take Ukraine.
There are 2 possibiities:
1.Their logistic is so fucked,that they could not maintain that.
2.They have some secret deal with Biden owners for long war.

In Both cases,Moscov would not win,at least not in this year.

3. Its the same reason they insist on not calling it a war to the point of beclowning themselves. Consider what happened to Russia's government the last 2 times they had a large, pretty challenging, not exactly defensive war fought by conscripts, that they had to withdraw from without being able to spin it as a victory.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Which they should get 3 months ago.And,if they mobilize,they would take entire Donbas,maybe even Kiev,even now.
So,real problem is WHY Moscov do not mobilized and take Ukraine.
There are 2 possibiities:
1.Their logistic is so fucked,that they could not maintain that.
2.They have some secret deal with Biden owners for long war.

In Both cases,Moscov would not win,at least not in this year.

The quick victory has passed when Zelensky didn't bounce. It's the long slog now to grind the Ukranian troops in a war of attrition while cheating with artillery to pound them from the air is what I can get as they use this thing called cauldrons to encircle them.

Meanwhile as another example of the media's enthusiasm until the sudden change.

I don't know what's a Kherson. You point something on a map I only get it's a location without knowing the details.

You have to do it like this explaining shit while clicking on a map for word after word of information as you keep clicking to explain this shit to a layman or dunce.

 

[ATP]

3. Its the same reason they insist on not calling it a war to the point of beclowning themselves. Consider what happened to Russia's government the last 2 times they had a large, pretty challenging, not exactly defensive war fought by conscripts, that they had to withdraw from without being able to spin it as a victory.

Indeed - but,it would be rather other KGB colonel killing Putin and trying to made deal with USA against China.

The quick victory has passed when Zelensky didn't bounce. It's the long slog now to grind the Ukranian troops in a war of attrition while cheating with artillery to pound them from the air is what I can get as they use this thing called cauldrons to encircle them.

Meanwhile as another example of the media's enthusiasm until the sudden change.

I don't know what's a Kherson. You point something on a map I only get it's a location without knowing the details.

You have to do it like this explaining shit while clicking on a map for word after word of information as you keep clicking to explain this shit to a layman or dunce.

Ukrainians are fighting,not Zelensky - becouse they have no other choice.Kgbstan want them dead,after all.
Even if Kiev fall now and ukrainian army run,kgbstan would still try "denazify" them.
In Czeczenya it meaned 200.000 dead Czeczen and 20.000 dead moscovites.
Since Ukraine have 40 times more people,it would mean 8 millions of dead ukrainians and 800.000 kgbstan KIA.

And workd press do not matter.
What matter is if:
1.Germans keep paing Putin for his war
2.USA would keep paing Ukraine so they could defend.
If USA would keep paing for next year,kgbstan lost.
If not,they would win - after 20 years or so genociding Ukraine.And even then they would lost million sodiers.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Ukrainians are fighting,not Zelensky - becouse they have no other choice.Kgbstan want them dead,after all.
Even if Kiev fall now and ukrainian army run,kgbstan would still try "denazify" them.
In Czeczenya it meaned 200.000 dead Czeczen and 20.000 dead moscovites.
Since Ukraine have 40 times more people,it would mean 8 millions of dead ukrainians and 800.000 kgbstan KIA.

And workd press do not matter.
What matter is if:
1.Germans keep paing Putin for his war
2.USA would keep paing Ukraine so they could defend.
If USA would keep paing for next year,kgbstan lost.
If not,they would win - after 20 years or so genociding Ukraine.And even then they would lost million sodiers.

They're going to keep dying to the last as the US heads want it unless they break from the lack of support. Their leaders aren't giving them the support they needed.

Ukrainian Military Units Continue Rebelling against Their Commanders - A Son of the New American Revolution

When I wrote this piece initially last week, I identified 6 Ukrainian units that filmed themselves rebelling against their chain of command. These “rebellion” videos came on the heels of...

sonar21.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/29/ukraine-war-tide-turns/

 

[Husky_Khan]

Still the places with the most people

They are also the places most insulated from the casualties of the conflict. Most of the casualties have been burdened upon poorer areas of Russia and barely any from the urban centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Speaking of which, reportedly around three hundred Russian officers have been killed in fighting according to publicly available data. Which means almost one out of every five publicly confirmed deaths is that of an Officer. Other analysis shows most of the dead are young and poor and barely any from the urban centers of Moscow or St. Petersburg. Provinces such as Dagestan and Buryatia have suffered disproportionately heavy losses. Marine and Airborne Units have also suffered particularly heavy casualties.

And previously commentators were doubling down on the desire to recruit people from poor areas and foreign citizens from CIS countries in Central Asia.

Russian Commentator Gabbing About How they Need to Boost Reserves for the Coming War with NATO, mainly by Recruiting people from the Poorer CIS Countries and Russian Areas.

They were also the sights of the most protests against the War (which makes sense being big cities) and far outsized the protests in other places... before Russia made it illegal to protest the War and detained a couple thousand people.

Protests in Central Moscow last night. Several hundred protesters already arrested/detained.

Apparently almost 1800 people detained in these Anti-War Protests.



And here's one in St. Petersburg.

 

[ATP]

They're going to keep dying to the last as the US heads want it unless they break from the lack of support. Their leaders aren't giving them the support they needed.

Ukrainian Military Units Continue Rebelling against Their Commanders - A Son of the New American Revolution

When I wrote this piece initially last week, I identified 6 Ukrainian units that filmed themselves rebelling against their chain of command. These “rebellion” videos came on the heels of...

sonar21.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/29/ukraine-war-tide-turns/

So? they defend themselves,and knew that defeat mean death.kgbstan troops are betrayed by Putin,too - and they must attack.And knew,that if they lost,nothing bad happen to their families.
Interesting,who would break first....

 

[Arch Dornan]

So? they defend themselves,and knew that defeat mean death.kgbstan troops are betrayed by Putin,too - and they must attack.And knew,that if they lost,nothing bad happen to their families.
Interesting,who would break first....

Then they will break if they're not suicidal.

 

[Marduk]

Indeed - but,it would be rather other KGB colonel killing Putin and trying to made deal with USA against China.

That's just paranoid. No self-respecting KGB colonel is going to beg America of all places for an alliance. They would rather be China's bitch and keep the "evil west and America" narrative.
Secondly, how much is America willing to pay to have a quarter-destroyed second rate army for an ally? Not much probably. Perhaps the Potemkin army not tested by war seemed like something worth selling off a few small allies for. But the charm has been dispelled, now that perceived value went down by a lot.

 

[ATP]

Then they will break if they're not suicidal.

kgbstan? certainly.Becouse for ukrainians surrender to Putin is suicidal,becouse he would kill them eventually.
kbgstan soldiers could break and still live,ukrainians ,if break,would be genocided for next 20 years.And are well aware of that.
@Marduk - smart KGB colonel would ally with USA to save Siberia from China.And always could fope,that american democrats would gave Central Europe to Moscov again for free.They did so in 1945 after all.

 

[Marduk]

@Marduk - smart KGB colonel would ally with USA to save Siberia from China.And always could fope,that american democrats would gave Central Europe to Moscov again for free.They did so in 1945 after all.

If KGB colonels were that smart they would have used the resource revenue to turn Russia into a second Germany, and then they wouldn't need to bully the former USSR/WP states and satellites to be their friends to begin with, they would have plenty of volunteers to be their friends for money, like Germany. The problem is that this time democrats would at least have a laundry list of mostly stupid demands for the KGB colonels to follow, and their imperial pride (and domestic propaganda line) would make it hard to follow those.

 

[Arch Dornan]

kgbstan? certainly.Becouse for ukrainians surrender to Putin is suicidal,becouse he would kill them eventually.
kbgstan soldiers could break and still live,ukrainians ,if break,would be genocided for next 20 years.And are well aware of that.
@Marduk - smart KGB colonel would ally with USA to save Siberia from China.And always could fope,that american democrats would gave Central Europe to Moscov again for free.They did so in 1945 after all.

The Azov surrendered after holding out for many days when help wasn't coming.

 

[ATP]

The Azov surrendered after holding out for many days when help wasn't coming.

And now they die screaming,so next would be smart enough to die fighting.Becouse i could bet that kgbstan would be stupid enough to murder them in most unpleasant way.

Anyway,real problem is that,when kgbstan soldier have no real reason to fight except loot and czeczen barrier battalions,ukrainians are fighting for future of their country and families.
Becouse,when Moscov lost that war,people there would still lived as before,and soldiers families would be not harmed.
When ukraine lost,people would be genocided and remnants of them live in shit.

So,i ask again - who would be fight better ?

If KGB colonels were that smart they would have used the resource revenue to turn Russia into a second Germany, and then they wouldn't need to bully the former USSR/WP states and satellites to be their friends to begin with, they would have plenty of volunteers to be their friends for money, like Germany. The problem is that this time democrats would at least have a laundry list of mostly stupid demands for the KGB colonels to follow, and their imperial pride (and domestic propaganda line) would make it hard to follow those.

You are probably right,but...never underestimate democrats stupidity.Biden could gave Europe again to Moscov only becouse FDR once did so.

 

[Arch Dornan]

And now they die screaming,so next would be smart enough to die fighting.Becouse i could bet that kgbstan would be stupid enough to murder them in most unpleasant way.

Anyway,real problem is that,when kgbstan soldier have no real reason to fight except loot and czeczen barrier battalions,ukrainians are fighting for future of their country and families.
Becouse,when Moscov lost that war,people there would still lived as before,and soldiers families would be not harmed.
When ukraine lost,people would be genocided and remnants of them live in shit.

So,i ask again - who would be fight better ?

I thought they'd kill themselves knowing what they did intimidating and causing war crimes the separatists want to get the individual members for. Didn't happen.

We shall see for the rest.

 

[ATP]

I thought they'd kill themselves knowing what they did intimidating and causing war crimes the separatists want to get the individual members for. Didn't happen.

We shall see for the rest.

separatist do what Moscov want.And,since kgbstan is ruled either by idiots or dudes who made deal with USA to have long war - they woud accuse them of something,torture and kill.So,nobody would surrender after that.

Yes,we shall see - but,i ask you two questions:
1.If you were kgbstan soldier and knew that your country and family would be safe if you lost,would you risk your life?
2.If you were ukrainian soldier,and knew that defeat means Bucha on entire Ukraine - would you surrender,or fight?

Becouse,no matter how look at it,kgbstan soldiers have little reasons to fight,and ukrainians every reason to do so.

 

[WolfBear]

Putin Ally Claims Poland is Already Moving to Take Ukrainian Territory

Nikolai Patrushev accused the West of taking advantage of Russia-Ukraine war "for their own selfish interests."

www.newsweek.com

Second Polish Republic unleash Resurrection Power!

 

[Arch Dornan]

separatist do what Moscov want.And,since kgbstan is ruled either by idiots or dudes who made deal with USA to have long war - they woud accuse them of something,torture and kill.So,nobody would surrender after that.

Yes,we shall see - but,i ask you two questions:
1.If you were kgbstan soldier and knew that your country and family would be safe if you lost,would you risk your life?
2.If you were ukrainian soldier,and knew that defeat means Bucha on entire Ukraine - would you surrender,or fight?

Becouse,no matter how look at it,kgbstan soldiers have little reasons to fight,and ukrainians every reason to do so.

1. I need to be indoctrinated more first with Russian revanchist ideas first especially if I knew people who knew a time when the states that split were once Russian.
2. I might still surrender after getting bombarded with artillery 24/7.