China A China-Free Supply Chain

[Husky_Khan]

Nothing has been signed yet but there are talks ongoing to accelerate efforts to build supply chains not just for computer chips, but also key strategically significant products such as semiconductors, electric batteries, rare-earth metals and medical products, that are less reliant on China. This effort is apparently intended in being done in coordination or partnership with other East Asian countries such as Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.

[quote-Nikkei]
U.S. President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order as early as this month to accelerate efforts to build supply chains for chips and other strategically significant products that are less reliant on China, in partnership with the likes of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.

The document will order the development of a national supply chain strategy, and is expected to call for recommendations for supply networks that are less vulnerable to disruptions such as disasters and sanctions by unfriendly countries. Measures will focus on semiconductors, electric-vehicle batteries, rare-earth metals and medical products, according to a draft obtained by Nikkei.

The order states that "working with allies can lead to strong, resilient supply chains," suggesting that international relationships will be central to this plan. Washington is expected to pursue partnerships with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea in chip production and Asia-Pacific economies including Australia in rare earths.

The U.S. plans to share information with allies on supply networks for important products and will look to leverage complementary production. It will consider a framework for speedy sharing of these items in emergencies, as well as discuss securing stockpiles and spare manufacturing capacity. Partners could be asked to do less business with China.[/quote]

US and allies to build 'China-free' tech supply chain

Exclusive: Biden to sign presidential order to bolster chip, battery and rare-earth industries

asia.nikkei.com

 

[ParadiseLost]

In the long run, it'd probably be a good idea to move the supply chains not just from in China to their front doorstep, but even farther away.

Additionally, I think it would be a good idea to place stricter limitations on the purchase of American companies especially by foreign governments and government controlled foreign corporations.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Cutting China out of the world markets like that would give it the idea of China using force to gain whatever resources it needs.

Thus, the sane, pragmatic, cold geopolitical calculus is to keep China in the world trade system at all costs or you'll simply risk a nuclear third world war.

 

[Rocinante]

Cutting China out of the world markets like that would give it the idea of China using force to gain whatever resources it needs.

Thus, the sane, pragmatic, cold geopolitical calculus is to keep China in the world trade system at all costs or you'll simply risk a nuclear third world war.

Building alternate trade routes that don't involve china is a good redundancy to add to the system, so one country can't decide to cut you off from supplies and leave you with no alternative means of acquiring things you need.

A broken clock is right twice a day I guess. This might be the first decently okay move from Biden camp that I've seen.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Building alternate trade routes that don't involve china is a good redundancy to add to the system, so one country can't decide to cut you off from supplies and leave you with no alternative means of acquiring things you need.

A broken clock is right twice a day I guess. This might be the first decently okay move from Biden camp that I've seen.

Not really, having no real alternative trade routes that avoid China is sadly the only carrot we've got. It has to be through China or China will pull something out of old games like SSI's People's General.

 

[Rocinante]

Not really, having no real alternative trade routes that avoid China is sadly the only carrot we've got. It has to be through China or China will pull something out of old games like SSI's People's General.

It's only a matter of time before china acts up anyways. Building alternatives for when they do is just preparing us for the inevitable.

I'd rather be prepared than to allow china to hold us by the balls

 

[Aaron Fox]

It's only a matter of time before china acts up anyways. Building alternatives for when they do is just preparing us for the inevitable.

I'd rather be prepared than to allow china to hold us by the balls

Thing is, that would only cause the situation we're trying to avoid. China has practically no trust in the rest of the planet. Other than keeping them in a key position of the economic order will only ensure that we'll be at war, I'm afraid. Then there is the horrifying domino effect that Putin and his associates have been trying to set up to kill the current geopolitical order... which is the only real thing that has been ensuring that we're not at [checks calculations] WW6 or 7 right now.

Isolationists might see the collapse of the current 'Trade or else' geopolitical order as a good thing, they forget that the history of humanity is the history of war, as the two are intertwined at such a level that there are no real differences.

 

[Rocinante]

Thing is, that would only cause the situation we're trying to avoid. China has practically no trust in the rest of the planet. Other than keeping them in a key position of the economic order will only ensure that we'll be at war, I'm afraid. Then there is the horrifying domino effect that Putin and his associates have been trying to set up to kill the current geopolitical order... which is the only real thing that has been ensuring that we're not at [checks calculations] WW6 or 7 right now.

Isolationists might see the collapse of the current 'Trade or else' geopolitical order as a good thing, they forget that the history of humanity is the history of war, as the two are intertwined at such a level that there are no real differences.

We aren't cutting out china, but developing alternative routes so that if china cuts US off, we aren't completely fucked.

That is a good plan.

That will make China think twice before doing things, if we have the ability to just cut them out. It'll make them think twice before cutting us out, or dangling that over our heads to pressure us, as well.

Right now china holds all the cards for certain things. If they were to cut us off, we would be fucked. They can use this as leverage and use it to screw us over. Taking away their ability to do so is a good thing. But we aren't cutting them out. Just telling them that we CAN cut them out, and taking away their power to hold cutting US out over our heads.

It seems you'd rather be china's pet, and be beholden to all their wishes, or else. but me? Not so much.

 

[Airedale260]

Cutting China out of the world markets like that would give it the idea of China using force to gain whatever resources it needs.

Thus, the sane, pragmatic, cold geopolitical calculus is to keep China in the world trade system at all costs or you'll simply risk a nuclear third world war.

The problem with this assessment is that it assumes China is a well behaved actor otherwise, when reality shows it’s not.

China has been busy screwing everyone it can, whether it’s violating patents, stealing technology, or just old-fashioned bullying. This, coupled with a return to the politics of the 50s and 60s, means that it’s already using coercion to get its way. Cutting them out of our supply chains is a consequence of their behavior, not the cause.

I don’t think they’d risk nuclear war, though, for two reasons. First, the U.S. can just as easily wipe them off the map, and second, Russia and India would love the chance to pounce. Not that they’d side with us, necessarily (India might, but not Russia), but it’s not something China can afford.

Building alternate trade routes that don't involve china is a good redundancy to add to the system, so one country can't decide to cut you off from supplies and leave you with no alternative means of acquiring things you need.

A broken clock is right twice a day I guess. This might be the first decently okay move from Biden camp that I've seen.

It’s really something that started under Trump, so if anyone deserves the credit for starting it, it’s him (hey, I hate the guy personally but a lot of his policies actually were the right moves). Also the fact that China’s behavior before, during, and after COVID means that the status quo would have ended anyway, but Trump just took a no-nonsense approach and didn’t bother pretending everything would be OK).

So while I’m glad Biden and Co didn’t decide to reverse course reflexively, I think it’s less because they had a good idea and more because they realize it would open them up to charges on being soft on China -especially when Biden’s son is notorious for having business ties and would open him up to some serious lines of attack.

 

[PsihoKekec]

The problem here is also the corporations, they are happy to take the government money, but they are also more than happy to violate both the spirit and the letter of the contract, for a few cents more, if they think they can get away with it. And usually they can, remember when components for weapons systems that were supposed to be made in USA turned out to be made in China? All they got was slap on the wrist that they calculated into the next contract. There are many ways for them to bypass the rules.

 

[LordsFire]

Thing is, that would only cause the situation we're trying to avoid. China has practically no trust in the rest of the planet.

The Chinese Communist Party has no one to blame for this, but themselves. They've screwed over literally everyone that they can, promised and failed to deliver, lied, cheated, and stolen as much as they could to rise as high as they could, and done it all with an elitist attitude. If they do not face steep consequences for their actions, they will only continue to do so, as has readily been proven over the last two decades.

And if they're crazy enough to start a war because people stop letting them cheat, then they're crazy enough to start a war when they think they can still get away with all of the cheating and theft.

A war that China will not win, unless cowards and traitors keep most every major opponent they have out of it. The Vietnamese or the Japanese alone could pin China down strategically, and if the USA, India, or Russia (quite unlikely) were to jump them while they're busy, China would straight-up lose. Things don't look good for them no matter what way you cut it, and if they'd just deal with people in good faith, they wouldn't be surrounded by enemies in the first place.

But, it is not in the nature of communists to deal with anybody in good faith, because their entire ideology is built on bad faith, and a rejection of reality. Which is part of why it's not so out there, thinking they might be crazy enough to start a war that is almost impossible for them to win.

 

[Zachowon]

Cutting China out of the world markets like that would give it the idea of China using force to gain whatever resources it needs.

Thus, the sane, pragmatic, cold geopolitical calculus is to keep China in the world trade system at all costs or you'll simply risk a nuclear third world war.

Aaron, China won't do Nuclear war as long as the US stands and is not in turmoil. If will use conventional war

The Chinese Communist Party has no one to blame for this, but themselves. They've screwed over literally everyone that they can, promised and failed to deliver, lied, cheated, and stolen as much as they could to rise as high as they could, and done it all with an elitist attitude. If they do not face steep consequences for their actions, they will only continue to do so, as has readily been proven over the last two decades.

And if they're crazy enough to start a war because people stop letting them cheat, then they're crazy enough to start a war when they think they can still get away with all of the cheating and theft.

A war that China will not win, unless cowards and traitors keep most every major opponent they have out of it. The Vietnamese or the Japanese alone could pin China down strategically, and if the USA, India, or Russia (quite unlikely) were to jump them while they're busy, China would straight-up lose. Things don't look good for them no matter what way you cut it, and if they'd just deal with people in good faith, they wouldn't be surrounded by enemies in the first place.

But, it is not in the nature of communists to deal with anybody in good faith, because their entire ideology is built on bad faith, and a rejection of reality. Which is part of why it's not so out there, thinking they might be crazy enough to start a war that is almost impossible for them to win.

They again, will target Taiwan first and for most, as they see it as an easy strategy

 

[Aaron Fox]

Aaron, China won't do Nuclear war as long as the US stands and is not in turmoil. If will use conventional war

History tells us otherwise, I'm afraid. All it takes is one or multiple idiots to push things into a suboptimal play which is nuclear war.

The Chinese Communist Party has no one to blame for this, but themselves. They've screwed over literally everyone that they can, promised and failed to deliver, lied, cheated, and stolen as much as they could to rise as high as they could, and done it all with an elitist attitude. If they do not face steep consequences for their actions, they will only continue to do so, as has readily been proven over the last two decades.

And if they're crazy enough to start a war because people stop letting them cheat, then they're crazy enough to start a war when they think they can still get away with all of the cheating and theft.

A war that China will not win, unless cowards and traitors keep most every major opponent they have out of it. The Vietnamese or the Japanese alone could pin China down strategically, and if the USA, India, or Russia (quite unlikely) were to jump them while they're busy, China would straight-up lose. Things don't look good for them no matter what way you cut it, and if they'd just deal with people in good faith, they wouldn't be surrounded by enemies in the first place.

But, it is not in the nature of communists to deal with anybody in good faith, because their entire ideology is built on bad faith, and a rejection of reality. Which is part of why it's not so out there, thinking they might be crazy enough to start a war that is almost impossible for them to win.

So you ignore the geopolitical reality? Damn, I've got no words.

 

[Cherico]

History tells us otherwise, I'm afraid. All it takes is one or multiple idiots to push things into a suboptimal play which is nuclear war.

So you ignore the geopolitical reality? Damn, I've got no words.

All right time to bring out mr. Map

This is a map of the world, Imagine you are a oil tanker leaving china to get to the middle east. Your ship is big lumbering and huge. By naval any naval standard you are a slow big and massive target.

Your ship in order to get that oil must get past the first island chain, this is japan, Taiwan, and the philipines a series of islands and arcepelicos that act as living air craft carriers. All of these powers are some what hostle to your home nation because of by now generations of diplomatic misteps.

Next the oil tanker must get through the straits, they have to get past Vietnam, Malyasia, singapore and indonesia another series of islands and pensular powers with grevances against china. Vietnam by the way isnt that angry about the vietnam war for them that was like getting their hair mussed. China is vietnams one true hate, and oh boy do they hate them.

After getting through the straits said tanker must travel past india a country with a whole bunch of grivances against china, they have fought wars and have constant back and forth across their northern boarder with china. Not exactly friends.

Having successfully done that the tanker must now go to the middle east which and pick a side in the centuries long blood feud between sunni and shia and get through the narrow straits with out either side going after your tanker for having the ghall to deal with their enemy.

Now that tanker having escaped the middle east is now filled with oil a super valuable resourse now must travel past a hostle india, past the natural choke point that is the straits past the first island chain of hostle states and return home to china.


The only reason why chinese ships are able to make this treak is because the united states decided during the cold war that we needed an alliance agasnt the soviets. So our bribe was thus, we will protect every ones trade with every one else and in exchange you fight the cold war our way and we get energy.

Nixon and Mao's deal included the chinese in that anti soviet alliance and thus for the first time maybe ever the chinese could freely trade with any one in the world and their trade would be protected by the united states of america. China's current wealth and prosperity is directly because of the US.


Now lets talk about china's issues, their economic model is one where they take the savings of the entire nation pool it together and throw it at anything that promises employement. Other countries have done this it always blows up sooner or later. The chinese economy is enron on a nation scale, you have little old ladies who own multiple apartment flats because they are investing in real esatate its subprime on steroids and sooner or later that economic time bombs going off.

Second 30 years after the one child policy china is running low on 30 year olds, 20 year old ect. Fixing this is impossible because when china industrialized the women moved into the cities to work in factories and the men tended to stay in rural areas. The two sexes are now seperated by geography the result is one of the fastest aging populations in the world.

Their older then us now.


Now lets talk about the elephant in the room.

Mexican labor is of now cheaper and more skilled then chinese labor its been that way for years. If you remove your factories in china and move them to mexico you save on labor costs, you have more skilled labor so there is less shrink because less stuff gets fucked up, your transportation costs are a fraction of moving shit across the pacific ocean. You also have a slightly better government that has more respect for copy right law.

We are not ignoring geo political reality even before covid our supply chains were moving back to north america, covid just sped that process up and made accomdidating china political sucide.

 

[Robovski]

I am all for making Mexico a better place by trading with them over China. They are our near neighbors and that would help solve issues we have since our manufacturing jobs already drained out of the rust belt more than a decade ago. Closer ties with Mexico, better conditions and more employment for Mexicans, cheaper, more reliably made goods for the US is a win-win. And China loses and I don't care much about that because boy are they not great to try to work with and they don't need a leg up challenging us on a global scale.

 

[LordsFire]

History tells us otherwise, I'm afraid. All it takes is one or multiple idiots to push things into a suboptimal play which is nuclear war.

So you ignore the geopolitical reality? Damn, I've got no words.

History tells us otherwise? History tells us that no one has detonated a nuke in anger since WWII, and that major powers understand that MAD is a bad line to cross. That's not to say that it's impossible for it to happen, but historical precedent is firmly weighted against it.

History also tells us what appeasement gets us, and that's WWII.


The Geopolitical reality is that China has no friends, and many enemies. All that they need to change that, is to stop being complete jackasses. If a far more ethical regime were to replace the CCP, they could have stable trade relations within ten years, and some measure of international trust within a generation.

Someone here is ignoring history and geopolitical reality, and it's you.

 

[Aaron Fox]

History tells us otherwise? History tells us that no one has detonated a nuke in anger since WWII, and that major powers understand that MAD is a bad line to cross. That's not to say that it's impossible for it to happen, but historical precedent is firmly weighted against it.

History also tells us what appeasement gets us, and that's WWII.


The Geopolitical reality is that China has no friends, and many enemies. All that they need to change that, is to stop being complete jackasses. If a far more ethical regime were to replace the CCP, they could have stable trade relations within ten years, and some measure of international trust within a generation.

Someone here is ignoring history and geopolitical reality, and it's you.

That isn't the case, I'm afraid. History is filled with idiots with more ideology than sense forcing a suboptimal play, or have you forgotten the Black Hand going out and assassinating a crown prince of a nation just for their nationalism... which sparked off WW1 and thus WW2?

The real problem right now is that making a China-free supply chain is rather suboptimal as China is the biggest skeptic of the US's 'Trade or else' geopolitical paradigm. If China decides to opt-out, you'll have a domino effect of others leaving which causes problems.

All right time to bring out mr. Map

This is a map of the world, Imagine you are a oil tanker leaving china to get to the middle east. Your ship is big lumbering and huge. By naval any naval standard you are a slow big and massive target.

Your ship in order to get that oil must get past the first island chain, this is japan, Taiwan, and the philipines a series of islands and arcepelicos that act as living air craft carriers. All of these powers are some what hostle to your home nation because of by now generations of diplomatic misteps.

Next the oil tanker must get through the straits, they have to get past Vietnam, Malyasia, singapore and indonesia another series of islands and pensular powers with grevances against china. Vietnam by the way isnt that angry about the vietnam war for them that was like getting their hair mussed. China is vietnams one true hate, and oh boy do they hate them.

After getting through the straits said tanker must travel past india a country with a whole bunch of grivances against china, they have fought wars and have constant back and forth across their northern boarder with china. Not exactly friends.

Having successfully done that the tanker must now go to the middle east which and pick a side in the centuries long blood feud between sunni and shia and get through the narrow straits with out either side going after your tanker for having the ghall to deal with their enemy.

Now that tanker having escaped the middle east is now filled with oil a super valuable resourse now must travel past a hostle india, past the natural choke point that is the straits past the first island chain of hostle states and return home to china.


The only reason why chinese ships are able to make this treak is because the united states decided during the cold war that we needed an alliance agasnt the soviets. So our bribe was thus, we will protect every ones trade with every one else and in exchange you fight the cold war our way and we get energy.

Nixon and Mao's deal included the chinese in that anti soviet alliance and thus for the first time maybe ever the chinese could freely trade with any one in the world and their trade would be protected by the united states of america. China's current wealth and prosperity is directly because of the US.


Now lets talk about china's issues, their economic model is one where they take the savings of the entire nation pool it together and throw it at anything that promises employement. Other countries have done this it always blows up sooner or later. The chinese economy is enron on a nation scale, you have little old ladies who own multiple apartment flats because they are investing in real esatate its subprime on steroids and sooner or later that economic time bombs going off.

Second 30 years after the one child policy china is running low on 30 year olds, 20 year old ect. Fixing this is impossible because when china industrialized the women moved into the cities to work in factories and the men tended to stay in rural areas. The two sexes are now seperated by geography the result is one of the fastest aging populations in the world.

Their older then us now.


Now lets talk about the elephant in the room.

Mexican labor is of now cheaper and more skilled then chinese labor its been that way for years. If you remove your factories in china and move them to mexico you save on labor costs, you have more skilled labor so there is less shrink because less stuff gets fucked up, your transportation costs are a fraction of moving shit across the pacific ocean. You also have a slightly better government that has more respect for copy right law.

We are not ignoring geo political reality even before covid our supply chains were moving back to north america, covid just sped that process up and made accomdidating china political sucide.

It isn't when you actually look at history. Then again the 'appeasement failed' lie is still around for appeasement did give one thing above all else: time. Then again, people forget that.

Add to the fact that Nazi Germany managed to conquer most of Europe despite being resource deficient before the US came in like a tsunami...

... a lot of damage will be done before China falls, and that will almost certainly be of the mushroom cloud kind.

 

[Cherico]

That isn't the case, I'm afraid. History is filled with idiots with more ideology than sense forcing a suboptimal play, or have you forgotten the Black Hand going out and assassinating a crown prince of a nation just for their nationalism... which sparked off WW1 and thus WW2?

The real problem right now is that making a China-free supply chain is rather suboptimal as China is the biggest skeptic of the US's 'Trade or else' geopolitical paradigm. If China decides to opt-out, you'll have a domino effect of others leaving which causes problems.

It isn't when you actually look at history. Then again the 'appeasement failed' lie is still around for appeasement did give one thing above all else: time. Then again, people forget that.

Add to the fact that Nazi Germany managed to conquer most of Europe despite being resource deficient before the US came in like a tsunami...

... a lot of damage will be done before China falls, and that will almost certainly be of the mushroom cloud kind.

quite simply put fox.

The trade situation was changing before all of this, the price of chinese labor went up it is no longer the low cost hot spot. Mexico has cheaper and better labor and removes transportation costs. Our supply chains moving to north america is some thing baked into the economic pie. Its going to happen with or with out government support.

And after the covid mess there is simply no political will to artificially prop up a country that is openly hostel to our interests. Then you get to the issue that china only has less then 500 nukes and is surrounded by enemies and we also have a lot more nuclear weapons then china does.

If china concentrats fire on us that ends us a a great power for a couple generations but we also completely obliterate all of their cities and their still surrounded by enemies. If they decide to take out all of their enemies they dont have enough nukes to remove us as a power.

China operates under its own constraints.

 

[Aaron Fox]

quite simply put fox.

The trade situation was changing before all of this, the price of chinese labor went up it is no longer the low cost hot spot. Mexico has cheaper and better labor and removes transportation costs. Our supply chains moving to north america is some thing baked into the economic pie. Its going to happen with or with out government support.

And after the covid mess there is simply no political will to artificially prop up a country that is openly hostel to our interests. Then you get to the issue that china only has less then 500 nukes and is surrounded by enemies and we also have a lot more nuclear weapons then china does.

If china concentrats fire on us that ends us a a great power for a couple generations but we also completely obliterate all of their cities and their still surrounded by enemies. If they decide to take out all of their enemies they dont have enough nukes to remove us as a power.

China operates under its own constraints.

True, but we still need China to be 'on board' no matter what, however. Sorry for snapping at any of you, my happy tabletop game night went sour and I'm just pissed.

 

[LordsFire]

True, but we still need China to be 'on board' no matter what, however. Sorry for snapping at any of you, my happy tabletop game night went sour and I'm just pissed.

What do we 'need' China on-board for? What do they provide that nobody else in the world does?

I think you're wrong about everything you've said, hopefully understanding why you think we 'need' China will help me understand the route your thinking takes.