China A China-Free Supply Chain

[LordsFire]

I don't know enough to comment on most of this but i think you're numbers are out of date.

People's Liberation Army Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"
As of 2018, the Chinese navy operates over 496 combat ships and 232 various auxiliary vessels and counts 255,000 seamen in its ranks.''
Keep in mind this is three years out of date, the chinese are simply advancing so fast that i can understand not keeping up with the numbers. I won't disagree that the Chinese would lose in almost any confrontation with the US right now or even a few years from now.

However i think it will be much less than a decade before they feel confident in throwing down. Many people seem to have developed a nasty habit of dismissing the advancements China makes out of hand(not you btw) so i'm worried one day the west is going to get it's shit pushed in and be surprised.

The sheer scale of the things they do like their railroads,nuclear energy,factories,etc and the size of their population is only going to benefit them more as time goes on not less. There is very much a ticking clock until they are strong enough to sit down at the table and simply win.

If they can sustain their growth for long enough, yes, they will eventually become the dominant world power.

As usual, the question is whether or not other nations will be too asleep on the watch to address the threat in a timely manner, and if the totalitarian system will implode before it's too late.

 

[Sir 1000]

If they can sustain their growth for long enough, yes, they will eventually become the dominant world power.

As usual, the question is whether or not other nations will be too asleep on the watch to address the threat in a timely manner, and if the totalitarian system will implode before it's too late.

We now have sleepy joe at the wheel and America and the west are the most divided they have been in living memory so yeah..............😫


Also could a mod fix my post please? I swear trying to format and organize my post's on this site is impossible. I think it's on my end though, i'm using an xbox 1 and controller posting😚. I tried fixing my post and it just switches the format back when i change it😡😡

 

[Zachowon]

I don't know enough to comment on most of this but i think you're numbers are out of date.

People's Liberation Army Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"
As of 2018, the Chinese navy operates over 496 combat ships and 232 various auxiliary vessels and counts 255,000 seamen in its ranks.''
Keep in mind this is three years out of date, the chinese are simply advancing so fast that i can understand not keeping up with the numbers. I won't disagree that the Chinese would lose in almost any confrontation with the US right now or even a few years from now.

However i think it will be much less than a decade before they feel confident in throwing down. Many people seem to have developed a nasty habit of dismissing the advancements China makes out of hand(not you btw) so i'm worried one day the west is going to get it's shit pushed in and be surprised.

The sheer scale of the things they do like their railroads,nuclear energy,factories,etc and the size of their population is only going to benefit them more as time goes on not less. There is very much a ticking clock until they are strong enough to sit down at the table and simply win.

We won't get our shit pushed in.

People seem to fail to realize that the US is switching to be able to face a force like that.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Keep in mind this is three years out of date, the chinese are simply advancing so fast that i can understand not keeping up with the numbers. I won't disagree that the Chinese would lose in almost any confrontation with the US right now or even a few years from now.

However i think it will be much less than a decade before they feel confident in throwing down. Many people seem to have developed a nasty habit of dismissing the advancements China makes out of hand(not you btw) so i'm worried one day the west is going to get it's shit pushed in and be surprised.

The sheer scale of the things they do like their railroads,nuclear energy,factories,etc and the size of their population is only going to benefit them more as time goes on not less. There is very much a ticking clock until they are strong enough to sit down at the table and simply win.

I'm not convinced their navy will be fit to go toe to toe with the USN in a decade or less, but that might be about the speed they have to do it at if the demographic projections are correct. They'll be increasingly burdened with an aging population and have to pivot to domestic issues to handle what could easily become a crisis if they don't put a hell of a lot of work into addressing the situation. And wars can be nice for papering over domestic challenges but not so good for solving ones that won't disappear when people forget about them—especially when your problem is a shortage of young people in the workforce.

Or maybe they'll figure out a Two Point One Child Policy or something, or the projections will just turn out to have been very wrong, but I don't yet have reason to think so.

 

[Vaermina]

I don't know enough to comment on most of this but i think you're numbers are out of date.

People's Liberation Army Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"
As of 2018, the Chinese navy operates over 496 combat ships and 232 various auxiliary vessels and counts 255,000 seamen in its ranks.''
Keep in mind this is three years out of date, the chinese are simply advancing so fast that i can understand not keeping up with the numbers. I won't disagree that the Chinese would lose in almost any confrontation with the US right now or even a few years from now.

However i think it will be much less than a decade before they feel confident in throwing down. Many people seem to have developed a nasty habit of dismissing the advancements China makes out of hand(not you btw) so i'm worried one day the west is going to get it's shit pushed in and be surprised.

The sheer scale of the things they do like their railroads,nuclear energy,factories,etc and the size of their population is only going to benefit them more as time goes on not less. There is very much a ticking clock until they are strong enough to sit down at the table and simply win.

Even assuming those numbers are right, and that's a pretty big assumption given China lies about literally everything, you seem to be forgetting a rather important point in all this.

China has no friends.

In fact, it's worse then that, China is surounded by enemies of their own making because they are jackasses.

 

[Captain X]

China delenda est.

 

[LordsFire]

China delenda est.

Chinese Communist Party delenda est.

China as a nation is not a problem. Like with just about anything else, adding communism makes it horrible.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Chinese Communist Party delenda est.

China as a nation is not a problem. Like with just about anything else, adding communism makes it horrible.

I wouldn't say that. Whatever the coat a nation wears they inherit the legacy of their past and use it to justify their goals.

 

[Sir 1000]

We won't get our shit pushed in.

People seem to fail to realize that the US is switching to be able to face a force like that.

Are you talking about the 'pivot'? That's so vague it doesn't inspire confidence in the least.

I'm not convinced their navy will be fit to go toe to toe with the USN in a decade or less, but that might be about the speed they have to do it at if the demographic projections are correct. They'll be increasingly burdened with an aging population and have to pivot to domestic issues to handle what could easily become a crisis if they don't put a hell of a lot of work into addressing the situation. And wars can be nice for papering over domestic challenges but not so good for solving ones that won't disappear when people forget about them—especially when your problem is a shortage of young people in the workforce.

Or maybe they'll figure out a Two Point One Child Policy or something, or the projections will just turn out to have been very wrong, but I don't yet have reason to think so.

I have heard this demographic wishfull thinking for years now to no real result. They have enough people i think they can power through fairly easy and if they start having any real problems they will likely just start throwing those people in camps. Search you're feelings you know it to be true.

Even assuming those numbers are right, and that's a pretty big assumption given China lies about literally everything, you seem to be forgetting a rather important point in all this.

China has no friends.

In fact, it's worse then that, China is surounded by enemies of their own making because they are jackasses.

China has 1.4 billion people how many friends do they need? Those 'enemies' gladly take chinese money and do what China wants more often than not and many of them have han chinese diaspora in large numbers with growing populations. So give it time and many of those enemies will become friends whether they like it or not.

 

[Zachowon]

Are you talking about the 'pivot'? That's so vague it doesn't inspire confidence in the least.
I have heard this demographic wishfull thinking for years now to no real result. They have enough people i think they can power through fairly easy and if they start having any real problems they will likely just start throwing those people in camps. Search you're feelings you know it to be true.

China has 1.4 billion people how many friends do they need? Those 'enemies' gladly take chinese money and do what China wants more often than not and many of them have han chinese diaspora in large numbers with growing populations. So give it time and many of those enemies will become friends whether they like it or not.

We won't get our shit kicked in.
And we are switching to a force on force ear

 

[strunkenwhite]

I have heard this demographic wishfull thinking for years now to no real result. They have enough people i think they can power through fairly easy and if they start having any real problems they will likely just start throwing those people in camps. Search you're feelings you know it to be true.

I don't know who was saying China would already be having problems by now, but that wasn't something I ever believed. We'll see. I don't think even China would be able to get away with a "euthanize Grandma" policy without massive internal instability. As for "having enough people", they certainly do but it's not about the raw numbers it's about the proportions. If you go from eight working age people per retiree to two, that's an issue whether it's one hundred million or five hundred million.

 

[Vaermina]

China has 1.4 billion people how many friends do they need? Those 'enemies' gladly take chinese money and do what China wants more often than not and many of them have han chinese diaspora in large numbers with growing populations. So give it time and many of those enemies will become friends whether they like it or not.

All of them they can get, because those people are stuck in an average sized country with a large number of environmental issues that relies on imports to survive.

And no, they can't use forced diplomacy, because the rest of the world says no.

 

[strunkenwhite]

average sized country

I'm not sure what you're talking about here, since it's #2 by land area, #4 counting coastal waters.

 

[Sir 1000]

We won't get our shit kicked in.
And we are switching to a force on force ear

I admire the confidence.

I don't know who was saying China would already be having problems by now, but that wasn't something I ever believed. We'll see. I don't think even China would be able to get away with a "euthanize Grandma" policy without massive internal instability. As for "having enough people", they certainly do but it's not about the raw numbers it's about the proportions. If you go from eight working age people per retiree to two, that's an issue whether it's one hundred million or five hundred million.

This would sound like good news were it not for the hundreds of millions in the chinese countryside wanting jobs and automation. I'm sure millions of people will become the bloody grease in the Chinese machine long before they allow this to become a problem. I know the demographics will hurt them but they have so many people that are young they can strategically move them to the areas they need them. Who cares about gram gram in the middle of nowhere?

All of them they can get, because those people are stuck in an average sized country with a large number of environmental issues that relies on imports to survive.

And no, they can't use forced diplomacy, because the rest of the world says no.

Chinas pretty large, like top 5 sized countryies large. The west had many similar problems with pollution and we know how that turned out. They don't need forced diplomancy if their people reach a politically useful size in a country. It's one thing to tell China to fuck off when everyone in your country is on the same page. It's another when %10 to %30 of your people are han Chinese themselves.

 

[Zachowon]

I admire the confidence.
This would sound like good news were it not for the hundreds of millions in the chinese countryside wanting jobs and automation. I'm sure millions of people will become the bloody grease in the Chinese machine long before they allow this to become a problem. I know the demographics will hurt them but they have so many people that are young they can strategically move them to the areas they need them. Who cares about gram gram in the middle of nowhere?
Chinas pretty large, like top 5 sized countryies large. The west had many similar problems with pollution and we know how that turned out. They don't need forced diplomancy if their people reach a politically useful size in a country. It's one thing to tell China to fuck off when everyone in your country is on the same page. It's another when %10 to %30 of your people are han Chinese themselves.

It isnt simple confidence. It is the truth.
They will not catch us by surprise.
Unless people get rid of the NSA, we won't be caught of guard by them.

 

[strunkenwhite]

This would sound like good news were it not for the hundreds of millions in the chinese countryside wanting jobs and automation. I'm sure millions of people will become the bloody grease in the Chinese machine long before they allow this to become a problem. I know the demographics will hurt them but they have so many people that are young they can strategically move them to the areas they need them. Who cares about gram gram in the middle of nowhere?

Believe it or not, the average Chinese person has a family that they care about. China may be authoritarian but I imagine they rely on there not being a vast supermajority of people who hate them. And I'm not even saying the regime couldn't survive liquidating its geriatrics, I'm saying that if they did that they'd be in no shape to be dictating terms to the rest of the world because of the internal messes they'd be dealing with. Personally I would expect that taking the hit to the economy would be judged the lesser evil by the ruling class. And maybe they'll try to do a little euthanization on the side, but just nibbling on the edges compared to the whole population.

They don't need forced diplomancy if their people reach a politically useful size in a country. It's one thing to tell China to fuck off when everyone in your country is on the same page. It's another when %10 to %30 of your people are han Chinese themselves.

All right, but is that 20% people who fled Chinese oppression and hate its government more than outsiders ever could? Is it 5th generation descendants of immigrants who are 100% on board with the only country they've ever known as long as they don't get hit by nationalist racism?

 

[King Arts]

I admire the confidence.
This would sound like good news were it not for the hundreds of millions in the chinese countryside wanting jobs and automation. I'm sure millions of people will become the bloody grease in the Chinese machine long before they allow this to become a problem. I know the demographics will hurt them but they have so many people that are young they can strategically move them to the areas they need them. Who cares about gram gram in the middle of nowhere?
Chinas pretty large, like top 5 sized countryies large. The west had many similar problems with pollution and we know how that turned out. They don't need forced diplomancy if their people reach a politically useful size in a country. It's one thing to tell China to fuck off when everyone in your country is on the same page. It's another when %10 to %30 of your people are han Chinese themselves.

Aren’t Chinese all about filial piety and respect for ancestors and elders? Like yes the top ranks of the CCP are ruthless. But I think going so far against their own culture would cause them to balk and freeze. I mean they might do it if they had no choice and it’s life or death, but I think they’d rather take a economic depression then risk resistance like that. I know bugmen is a meme about China but well it’s not a literal meme lol.

It isnt simple confidence. It is the truth.
They will not catch us by surprise.
Unless people get rid of the NSA, we won't be caught of guard by them.

That’s good I’d rather we stay number one for the rest of my life. But I always thought China and Russia were the biggest rivals and threats to us. If you are saying they aren’t then who is? Don’t give classified info obviously but like your opinion on if we even have a threat that could weaken us or make others stronger.

 

[LordsFire]

It's another when %10 to %30 of your people are han Chinese themselves.

I don't know if this number is still accurate, but as of ~15 years ago, 80% of all Chinese who left China to live elsewhere became Christians.

While 20% is still certainly enough to have informants and saboteurs, if 80% is politically uninterested or outright unreliable to the CCP, that's not going to form much of a 5th column.

 

[DocSolarisReich]

That’s good I’d rather we stay number one for the rest of my life. But I always thought China and Russia were the biggest rivals and threats to us. If you are saying they aren’t then who is? Don’t give classified info obviously but like your opinion on if we even have a threat that could weaken us or make others stronger.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the PLAN has surpassed the operational combat capable hulls of the USN and it only gets worse from here.

Do not act shocked ... do not avert your eyes ... look harder

We started the " Keeping and Eye on the Long Game " over a decade and a half ago. Many of you have been loyal members of the Front Porch sin...

cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

 

[Wargamer08]

Meanwhile, in the real world, the PLAN has surpassed the operational combat capable hulls of the USN and it only gets worse from here.

Do not act shocked ... do not avert your eyes ... look harder

We started the " Keeping and Eye on the Long Game " over a decade and a half ago. Many of you have been loyal members of the Front Porch sin...

cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

They lack capital ships, both submarines and above water, and institutional experience. Has the Chinese navy fought anyone, at any point?