49ersfootball
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All of Latin America maybe peaceful, but they need to get their stufd together ASAP & very soon.
The Americas 🇧🇷 Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread
- Thread starter 49ersfootball
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I think the lack of wars may be related to not having their act together. The terrain is hell for logistics, infrastructure is lacking, while organizing armies that can overcome all this does require a lot of getting economic and political act together. Even if someone wanted to make land grabs, small ones aren't worth it and big ones no one has means for.
Argentina has some of the best geography on the planet, yeah brazil got fucked hard having an entire mountain range between their productive zones and the international markets but Argentina just needs leadership that isn't retarded to thrive.
So its not just geography its also culture expecially the culture of their ruling elites.
Even Argentina has road network density slightly below Canada and Australia, slightly above Russia and Congo.
That goes back to leadership issues, their internal river systems, productive lands and resources all mean that if they played their cards right they could be one of the richest countries in the world in fact for a period of time they were in the top ten economies on the planet.
But they haven't played their cards right since ww1.
gral
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We are headed into troubled times, indeed. But there is a misconception here:
Lula is a smokescreen; who rules Brazil is the Centrão, just as they did with Bolsonaro from 2020 onwards.
The above is why leftists complain so much about there being 'undercover Bolsonarists' in the government, just as Bolsonarists complained about 'undercover leftists' in the government. These guys are there because the Centrão said they would be there (ideology notwithstanding), and if you don't acquiesce to the Centrão, you get 2019 Bolsonaro, who had something like three quarters of his Medidas Provisórias(an Executive Decree that expires after 90 days - may be extended for another 90 days - unless confirmed by Congress and turned into a Law) expire, because the head of the House of Representatives simply refused to put them to a vote until their expiration.
In 2020, Bolsonaro capitulated to the Centrão, and put into law all mechanisms that are now being used to extort the current government - bribing Congress, as done by the previous Lula government(Mensalão), is now legal, and it's because Bolsonaro acquiesced to it in exchange for 'governability'.
So this is why the leftists are complaining, because PT was allowed to win the election but it's not allowed to rule - whatever the Centrão says, goes.
As for Lula, China and the US, the current situation isn't due to Lula or PT - the Brazilian left and centre-left are quite aligned ideologically with the Democrat Party nowadays. The Brazilian turn towards China is due to other factors than ideology. Lula would love to be in bed with the USA, but he needs money to feed the endless hunger personified that is the Brazilian political system, and neither the USA nor Europe are giving money to him.
Environmental concerns, what the nine-toed rat was planning to use to get funding from the 'global North', don't raise the money they once(pre-COVID) did. Why? Ukraine. Check out the sniping between Lula and Zelensky if you have the time. It's quite amusing(for those outside) to watch.
So, who currently has the money to give? China and the Middle East Arabs. To reinforce the trend, the Brazilian agro-export business sector is in bed with China, they were a big factor into turning the fairly anti-Chinese early-term Bolsonaro into the late-term 'We do business with anyone' Bolsonaro - they were key to ousting Bolsonaro's first Foreign Minister, who was openly anti-Chinese. Also, the current government wishes to rebuild the Brazilian industrial sector, and China is well-place to finance this rebuilding(and therefore become the owner of the Brazilian industrial sector).
So why was Lula the US favourite candidate? Well, he was the DNC's favourite candidate, just like Bolsonaro was Trump's favourite candidate(even when Bolsonaro was already sucking Chinese dick), due to stated ideology. Second, Lula did look like he would care more about the environment (and other causes dear to the WEF) than Bolsonaro(even though that was a lie, as shown above). He also had much better PR in the USA and Europe than Bolsonaro. So, a mix of 2, 3 and 5 was in play, although I think some other factors had to be in play.
49ersfootball
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Considering Brazil is the largest country in Latin America.
Daily Tweets from former Brazilian First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro (09/26/2023)
49ersfootball
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TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
So this comes from alternatehistory.com but I am surprised those cunts in this thread seem to not have shifted their views and not have lost all of their braincells :
@Aluma
The ideological founder of the new brazilian (far) right was Olavo de Carvalho who despised Russia seeing it as pretty much the Soviet Union under disguise with the KGB still ruling everything from the shadows which is unsurprising as he moved to the United States and took pride in being american first, wanting Brazil to be the US of the South
However sympathy for Putin and fanboying for him has been a trend in our right wing since forever, it fueled and was fueled by memes in social media portraying him as this badass russian figure making Russia "Great Again" alongside the view of non-olavist conservatives who thought of Russia as the ultimate example of traditionalism(haha) to be mimicked by Brazil with the Orthodox Church being portrayed as what our church ought to be
Then Bolsonarism happened and Bolsonaro managed to be both pro american and pro russian at once by simping constantly for both Trump and Putin seeing them as examples of what he should be and their countries(during their rule) as what Brazil should be like
Of course Trump's own adulation of the guy helped a lot as well
Thus we got this weird Trumpist-Putinist right during his rule, while of course collapsed when both he and Trump left power and Putin invaded Ukraine, with the right once again divided among pro american russophobes - who hate everything that has to do with the USSR-sorry, Russia, and treat russian people(wheter involved with the conflict or not, mainly immigrants) with scorn - and the Putinists who think Russia is their utopia, that the invasion is based and Brazil should wholeheartedly support it in its pursuit of destroying the "degenerate West"
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@Monter
Nova Resistência is a duginist/nazbol group btw. They are growing among left-wing circles (initially PDT, bow also in PTist places like 247).
Mostly because they frame their ideology with buzzwords like "sovereignty", "anti-imperialism", "multipolarity", all keywords the left uncritically loves and then eat their shit up.
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@Alcsentre Calanice
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@brunosouzzxx
Yeah it's mostly fringe. They are present in PDT and presents a problem to the party's administration, as they are yet to expell all of this shit out of it, but I wouldn't bet on them winning a seat, most of the people who consider themselves nationalists are on the right and most of the electorate doesn't give a single thought to the "dangers of foreign NGOs", vote is based mostly on economics and moral issues, foreign politics have very little impact on elections.
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@Sharknator3000
In Bahia, for example, ACM Neto, who is the grandson of Antonio Carlos Magalhães, the unofficial former emperor of the state, launched his candidacy, popular in Salvador, it was widely believed that ACM would govern the state because he was a strong name, while Lula would govern the country... he lost to Jeronimo Rodrigues, a guy who I bet 95% of the people from the interior of the state didn't even know what he was doing before he ran for governor, but that thing: the PT's messianism, the idea that everything about the PT It's good to enter people's popular imagination.
I would say that we can have an idea of what could happen in 2026, starting with the 2024 municipal elections. Because mayors have totemic influence on public bodies and the local press in cities with less than 100,000 inhabitants.
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@Gukpard
And no, no, no, the right hates russia, so much that even this recent pro Russia light inclination was from some bolsonarists, most of the right is anti russia and has a implicit ethnic disdain for russians thanks to the USSR.
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@DDJR
The main factor right now is the evangelical vote, which is beginning to stabilize but is still going to grow a bit. The main problem with Lula winning at São Paulo, for example, is the fact that outside São Paulo's metro there are some of the most conservative voters in the country. While there are obviously some cities that swing red even there, it's a right-wing bastion, and it always has been like this.
Like Sharknator said, in my region of the Northeast you can be very assured there will be a significant and overwhelming vote for whoever is a candidate for the left. Not only because of people wanting to take advantage of something, but because there was a genuine and truly impressive economic growth in the interior. It is still the poorest region in the country by far, but, you know, people aren't dying of hunger, and that was really the reality until the late 90s. You simply don't take these votes easily, like Romeu Zema learned when he tried to swing the northern Minas Gerais vote away from PT (which is pretty much like the Northeast in votting patterns). They may have voted for him, but they sure as hell wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro.
So, i really, really, don't know... my hope is that Lula keep having a great term and left-wing parties do better in local elections next year.
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@Dsa
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@athgtq16129
extra.globo.com
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@Aluma
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@athgtq16129
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@Aluma
You're a brave survivor(?)
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@historyrant
How are younger voters in Brazil leaning politically?
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@Dsa
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@holycookie
Another important factor when discussing Brazil is the left's inability to deal with the fact that the economic flagship is agriculture. All other sectors are incapable of being as competitive. That, and the crude view that agriculture is not very technological.
We will also have the congress and senate VS STF dispute with things like drugs, abortion, time mark of the natives among other issues. Which is making both sides very angry, especially the legislature.
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@Dsa
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@DDJR
Aside from that, i cannot disagree, the economy is the crucible of this government, it will make it a booming success or a sad failure. For now, i would say that it began much better than expected. Especially because while a GDP growth of 3ish% is good, although not great (except if you look at the 10 years of stagnation we faced), the sensation of stabilization and the sense that things are going to move forward again it is the more important fact of these first 8 months of government. The fact that Fernando Haddad is so far doing a great job may actually put him in a position to be a viable sucessor to Lula in either 2026 or 2030.
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@JohnBull
I believe Lula (or his candidate) can be elected even with a 1.5% growth average on those four years. They'll use the whole power of federal government to make sure they will get elected. They are way more competent than Bolsonaro and his madhouse gang on this regard. Below that number things are a little bit more iffy, but he can manage as well. It's been 10 years now of recession/very low growth, so society is kinda adapted to it.
On the other hand, even with a spectacular 4% growth/average, Lula's ceiling is at 55% at most. The Centre-South middle-class hatred towards vague notions of the "left" will stop them to vote for Lula or a candidate he's supporting even if full employment and crazy GDP growth.
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@historyrant
Just a question but isn't it insane that there are entire communities/favelas in Rio that would have voted for Lula by 70% or 80% in 2002 but where now to identify as a Lula supporter means a risk of getting shot or serious bodily harm? You can't think of a more sudden or violent political realignment if you tried.
Like it would be the equivalent of Trump trying to visit West Virginia 20 years from now and being greeted by an army of ex-coal miners with hammer and sickle banners cursing and trying to shoot at him.
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@holycookie
List of homicides by state
Lula, like Bolsonaro, openedti 's legs to the Centrão. Just like Bolsonaro, who only talked shit internationally, Lula does the same (only this time it's about Ukraine). Lula is more out of the country than in it, and the recent idea of buying the Airfode 1 doesn't help (why the hell does the president need a plane with a double bed, to have sex with his wife in the air, because that's the only explanation that I see). The fucking union tax is back, this cancer on humanity. I give the current government 5 out of 10. Better than Bolsonaro's but that's not a compliment.
@Aluma
Im not sure how much you're correct because Im not up to date with current electoral affairs but I think its very true that brazilian politics are populism.tm which means whatever way the population starts swinging the government changes accordingly since we dont have anything like the american college system to "moderate" popular will when it comes to votes
Its a mixed bag
The ideological founder of the new brazilian (far) right was Olavo de Carvalho who despised Russia seeing it as pretty much the Soviet Union under disguise with the KGB still ruling everything from the shadows which is unsurprising as he moved to the United States and took pride in being american first, wanting Brazil to be the US of the South
However sympathy for Putin and fanboying for him has been a trend in our right wing since forever, it fueled and was fueled by memes in social media portraying him as this badass russian figure making Russia "Great Again" alongside the view of non-olavist conservatives who thought of Russia as the ultimate example of traditionalism(haha) to be mimicked by Brazil with the Orthodox Church being portrayed as what our church ought to be
Then Bolsonarism happened and Bolsonaro managed to be both pro american and pro russian at once by simping constantly for both Trump and Putin seeing them as examples of what he should be and their countries(during their rule) as what Brazil should be like
Of course Trump's own adulation of the guy helped a lot as well
Thus we got this weird Trumpist-Putinist right during his rule, while of course collapsed when both he and Trump left power and Putin invaded Ukraine, with the right once again divided among pro american russophobes - who hate everything that has to do with the USSR-sorry, Russia, and treat russian people(wheter involved with the conflict or not, mainly immigrants) with scorn - and the Putinists who think Russia is their utopia, that the invasion is based and Brazil should wholeheartedly support it in its pursuit of destroying the "degenerate West"
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@Monter
Nova Resistência is a duginist/nazbol group btw. They are growing among left-wing circles (initially PDT, bow also in PTist places like 247).
Mostly because they frame their ideology with buzzwords like "sovereignty", "anti-imperialism", "multipolarity", all keywords the left uncritically loves and then eat their shit up.
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@Alcsentre Calanice
Until they have a seat in Congress, I'm happy dismissing them as a fringe group of which thousands exist, even in the First World.
Ἀρχὴ μεγίστη τοῦ φρονεῖν τὰ γρἀματτα.
Letters are the first and foremost guide to understanding.
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@brunosouzzxx
Yeah it's mostly fringe. They are present in PDT and presents a problem to the party's administration, as they are yet to expell all of this shit out of it, but I wouldn't bet on them winning a seat, most of the people who consider themselves nationalists are on the right and most of the electorate doesn't give a single thought to the "dangers of foreign NGOs", vote is based mostly on economics and moral issues, foreign politics have very little impact on elections.
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@Sharknator3000
It's a bit complicated to analyze this, because just as Brazil is culturally diverse, this applies to the way politics is applied in each region. I can only speak about my region. The Interior Northeast is probably the most difficult region to convince electoral change, as the great motivation of those who vote for the PT is not necessarily because of ideology, but because of what they think they can take advantage of, I'm not just talking about assistencialism, but it's common people from the middle class, mainly the "New Lulist Middle Class" and even businessmen miss the prosperous years of the Lula government, to the point of convincing themselves that: PT = good.
In Bahia, for example, ACM Neto, who is the grandson of Antonio Carlos Magalhães, the unofficial former emperor of the state, launched his candidacy, popular in Salvador, it was widely believed that ACM would govern the state because he was a strong name, while Lula would govern the country... he lost to Jeronimo Rodrigues, a guy who I bet 95% of the people from the interior of the state didn't even know what he was doing before he ran for governor, but that thing: the PT's messianism, the idea that everything about the PT It's good to enter people's popular imagination.
I would say that we can have an idea of what could happen in 2026, starting with the 2024 municipal elections. Because mayors have totemic influence on public bodies and the local press in cities with less than 100,000 inhabitants.
Last edited: Sep 16, 2023
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@Gukpard
Nova Resistencia is a fun case. Basically they had a split since their ideology is anti imperialist so when the war started they should have condemned russia, but the leader of the group (who is a former neo nazi) supported russia, trigering it's ideological members to leave.
And no, no, no, the right hates russia, so much that even this recent pro Russia light inclination was from some bolsonarists, most of the right is anti russia and has a implicit ethnic disdain for russians thanks to the USSR.
Those neo traditionalists are a minority, and some traditionalists like the TFP still claim that russia is communist. The average brazilian right winger is the miami right winger I once wrote here about and he thinks russia is still the soviet union in disguise.
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@DDJR
I frankly do not have a goddamn idea.
The main factor right now is the evangelical vote, which is beginning to stabilize but is still going to grow a bit. The main problem with Lula winning at São Paulo, for example, is the fact that outside São Paulo's metro there are some of the most conservative voters in the country. While there are obviously some cities that swing red even there, it's a right-wing bastion, and it always has been like this.
Like Sharknator said, in my region of the Northeast you can be very assured there will be a significant and overwhelming vote for whoever is a candidate for the left. Not only because of people wanting to take advantage of something, but because there was a genuine and truly impressive economic growth in the interior. It is still the poorest region in the country by far, but, you know, people aren't dying of hunger, and that was really the reality until the late 90s. You simply don't take these votes easily, like Romeu Zema learned when he tried to swing the northern Minas Gerais vote away from PT (which is pretty much like the Northeast in votting patterns). They may have voted for him, but they sure as hell wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro.
So, i really, really, don't know... my hope is that Lula keep having a great term and left-wing parties do better in local elections next year.
Last edited: Sep 17, 2023
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@Dsa
Well it's hard to say since a lot can happen in 3 years, but i have my predictions for the local elections in 2024. I believe there will be a stabilization of the traditional right wing parties hurt by bolsonarism, PL will grow but not as much and not everywhere, similarly the far-left parties will grow less , the traditional center-left will stagnate in their growth IMO. Things aren't chaotic like in the pandemic and Bolsonaro's government, but still far from good, so i can see a growing extremism on younger demographics, while older people will generally stay the same as they are with a trend towards either bolsonarists or traditional center-left parties.
Yeah, but a small correction is that Jerônimo is more popular in the interior, and ACM Neto in the capital due to his family's great influence on the media and his big propaganda machine. And i don't think there is a messianism with PT here, even with all the critics i have against PT-BA they are miles ahead of our governments before them.
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@athgtq16129
Amigos do Mato Grosso unem Bolsonaro e Lula em tema de festa de aniversário
O embate entre os candidatos à Presidência Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) e Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) divide o país. Mas isso não ocorre entre um curioso grupo de...Quote Reply
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@Aluma
Meu sonho right there
Amigos do Mato Grosso unem Bolsonaro e Lula em tema de festa de aniversário
O embate entre os candidatos à Presidência Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) e Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) divide o país. Mas isso não ocorre entre um curioso grupo de...
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The Empress of Egypt - Cleopatra wins, Caesar survives, the Roman Republic endures and Ancient Egypt lives on
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@athgtq16129
Literally my family in real life, not even joking.
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@Aluma
Uhhh
You're a brave survivor(?)
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@historyrant
How are younger voters in Brazil leaning politically?
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@Dsa
Generally? More to the left. It varies with religion, education, and location.
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@holycookie
Historically Brazil has good relations with Russia and the fact that a stronger Russia gives Brazil more space to do things without American complaints. That's why Brazil prefers a stronger Russia or China than a stronger USA. In the same way that Poland prefers a strong USA and Viatnam prefers the USA. Being neighbors with great powers is a bad deal.
Lula's successor will not have the strength he has. This is PT's biggest problem. This and the complete incompetence when dealing with security. Bahia is the best example of this, 20 years of PT and the state's situation only gets worse. Violence, especially in the northeast, is out of control and the PT does nothing. If the economy is bad or doesn't grow quickly, Lula's love from the past will soon turn to anger.
you think? I tend to see youth as much more right-wing than the previous generation. But this could be Urban x countryside. The country is very big and this is very divisive when we see it. The Catarinense youth are much more right-wing than the previous generation, while the Bahian youth are much more left-wing than the previous generation.
Another important factor when discussing Brazil is the left's inability to deal with the fact that the economic flagship is agriculture. All other sectors are incapable of being as competitive. That, and the crude view that agriculture is not very technological.
We will also have the congress and senate VS STF dispute with things like drugs, abortion, time mark of the natives among other issues. Which is making both sides very angry, especially the legislature.
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@Dsa
Well, as i said it does vary a lot, but most of the population is urban, and those tend to the left generally. Not to say there isn't a significant influence of the right on the youth. On the matter of left x agriculture, it's a fallacy spread by the right that the left doesn't care about agriculture, every single party in the actual left defends land reform for example, which increases productivity. The question is what kind of agro do they support, in that case yeah they don't support the current monopoly on land, and the commodities focused agriculture while millions aren't sure they will be able to eat.
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@DDJR
There is a historical problem with violence, especially in urban areas, yes. But it actually used to be worse in most places in the Northeast. Lula does have an obligation to use the federal government to do its part to help solve the problem somewhat, but aside from the very specific case of Bahia, i frankly do not see how his popularity could be threatened by this specific issue. And even in Bahia, while it may lead to adverse results at local and regional level, i simply cannot foresee in short-term how PT could lose it's monopoly at national level. With the exception of a fast-growing western part of that state, the rest is very loyal to Lula and PT.
Aside from that, i cannot disagree, the economy is the crucible of this government, it will make it a booming success or a sad failure. For now, i would say that it began much better than expected. Especially because while a GDP growth of 3ish% is good, although not great (except if you look at the 10 years of stagnation we faced), the sensation of stabilization and the sense that things are going to move forward again it is the more important fact of these first 8 months of government. The fact that Fernando Haddad is so far doing a great job may actually put him in a position to be a viable sucessor to Lula in either 2026 or 2030.
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@JohnBull
I believe Lula (or his candidate) can be elected even with a 1.5% growth average on those four years. They'll use the whole power of federal government to make sure they will get elected. They are way more competent than Bolsonaro and his madhouse gang on this regard. Below that number things are a little bit more iffy, but he can manage as well. It's been 10 years now of recession/very low growth, so society is kinda adapted to it.
On the other hand, even with a spectacular 4% growth/average, Lula's ceiling is at 55% at most. The Centre-South middle-class hatred towards vague notions of the "left" will stop them to vote for Lula or a candidate he's supporting even if full employment and crazy GDP growth.
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@historyrant
Just a question but isn't it insane that there are entire communities/favelas in Rio that would have voted for Lula by 70% or 80% in 2002 but where now to identify as a Lula supporter means a risk of getting shot or serious bodily harm? You can't think of a more sudden or violent political realignment if you tried.
Like it would be the equivalent of Trump trying to visit West Virginia 20 years from now and being greeted by an army of ex-coal miners with hammer and sickle banners cursing and trying to shoot at him.
Last edited: Friday at 2:55 PM
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@holycookie
It's not that the left doesn't care, it's that they don't like it. The left, and this is from experience that comes from my college to where I am today in my master's degree, doesn't like agriculture. They don't like the culture, they don't like the environment of this economy and see these people in bad eyes. This is largely not due to issues of agrarian reform but due to the disconnection of urban groups with the countryside. The left is centered on the urban world and is therefore more sensitive to how the rural world lives. It's a retrograde and old world in their view. Maybe in your experience you saw it differently, but in my experience at university and in the countryside. These two camps hate each other.
They support an agro-fantasy that is the truth unfortunately. Let's take MST products for example, they are much more expensive and of worse quality than both family farm production and large-scale production. With groups like the MST attacking not non-productive farms, but productive farms (because that's where the money is). This may seem like an attack on these landless people but it is not. But this eternal fight between the left and agro will have a future winner and that is agro.
Seriously because if this is the case how much worse was it before. Of the 5 most violent cities in the country, 4 are in Bahia and one in Pernambuco. Amapá, in the North, has the highest murder rate per 100 thousand inhabitants (50.6), followed by Bahia (47.1), Amazonas (38.8), Alagoas, Pernambuco, Pará, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, Sergipe, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins. The first state outside these regions is Espírito Santo, in the Southeast, in 13th place. It is in the Northeast, in fact, that the city that recorded the highest homicide rate is located. The state of São Paulo had the lowest rate (8.4), followed by Santa Catarina (9.1) and the Federal District (11.3).
List of homicides by state
- Amapá: 50,6
- Bahia: 47,1
- Amazonas: 38,8
- Alagoas: 37,9
- Pernambuco: 37,8
- Pará: 36,9
- Rio Grande do Norte: 36,7
- Ceará: 35,5
- Sergipe: 34,8
- Rondônia: 34,3
- Roraima: 30,5
- Tocantins: 30,5
- Espírito Santo: 29,3
- Mato Grosso: 29,3
- Acre: 28,6
- Maranhão: 28
- Rio de Janeiro : 27,9
- Paraíba: 26,1
- Goiás: 25,2
- Piauí: 25
- Brasil: 23,4 (Média nacional)
- Paraná: 22,7
- Rio Grande do Sul: 19,8
- Mato Grosso do Sul: 18,7
- Minas Gerais: 12,6
- Distrito Federal: 11,3
- Santa Catarina: 9,1
- São Paulo: 8,4
Yes, with all certainty in the northeast, Lula is supreme (his successor probably not). As we see in Bahia with 20 years of PT and the state just gets into more chaos. But they keep voting for them.
Yes, if it is more or less or not growing. The current government has big problems. In fact, even if it grows, it will have problems. Brazil has to grow a lot, like 8% to 10% annually for the economy to improve.
Yes, the Agro boom is increasing GDP significantly,
Yes, we have not recovered from Dilma's economic depression. Honestly, it deserves an award for the worst economic proposal in the republic, not even Bolsonaro could create such a bad economy.
Do you have this feeling? For me it's the same thing, the color changes from green to yellow to red. But at the moment I don't see an idea that things are going better. Haddad is basically fighting with the rest of the government to try to have a sensible economic minister, Lula doesn't stop attacking the central bank, Janja just talks shit. I place this government as between Dilma 1 and 2. It's not good, it could be much worse but it could also be much better.
Lula, like Bolsonaro, openedti 's legs to the Centrão. Just like Bolsonaro, who only talked shit internationally, Lula does the same (only this time it's about Ukraine). Lula is more out of the country than in it, and the recent idea of buying the Airfode 1 doesn't help (why the hell does the president need a plane with a double bed, to have sex with his wife in the air, because that's the only explanation that I see). The fucking union tax is back, this cancer on humanity. I give the current government 5 out of 10. Better than Bolsonaro's but that's not a compliment.
Haddad, this is a meh to ok economic minister. A good economic minister was from the first Lula government and FHC's government. I hope he is the PT candidate because he will lose. Just like he lost everything. I may have voted for Lula against Bolsonaro, but I dont like Lula or his government. And in the next government, not being Bolsonaro, I will vote against the PT. And I imagine that this is a good part of the votes that allowed Lula to win the election (for almost nothing I remember, not a single point of difference). The only candidate from the current left that I would vote for would be Ciro Gomes. Everything else is pretty bad, Haddad, Boulos, Janja, Flavio Dino. There are only bad things
gral
Well-known member
I suppose this was on the Political Chat subforum? I avoid the place like the plague.
A few comments on what was said:
- BolsoLula has a bigger chance of happening than most people think - they are opposed rhetorically, but their actions are quite convergent. In fact, Lula has done more against leftist sacred cows than Bolsonaro did - Bolsonaro had the illusion that if he sought compromise, press, academia and artists would stop saying he was a genocidal homophobic misogynist, which shows how much of a fool he is. Lula doesn't give a fuck - what they are going to do if he(slightly) hurts their interests, vote for Bolsonaro?
The only thing that prevents BolsoLula from happening(and it's a strong barrier) is the fact Bolsonaro was turned into the Left's Emmanuel Goldstein, but if someone else that is further to the 'right' than Bolsonaro posed himself as, or is willing to do what Bolsonaro said he would, rises, and the STF isn't able to stop that rise? You'd get BolsoLula, just as you got a PT-PSDB alliance against Bolsonaro;
- holycookie is right regarding the left despising the rural world, 100%;
- About Olavo de Carvalho: he is the ideological founder of the current Brazilian Right, but what he founded won't endure. Why? Because he left no successor to consolidate what he did. His 'students', by and large, were interested in using what he was creating to improve their own personal situation(whether finacially, socially or politcally). This was shown by the fact that those who were purged first from Bolsonaro's government were those who were linked to Olavo(many of them were even removed by people who months before were quite loudly showing their 'olavist credentials'). Hard to create anything of lasting value when almost all of those who gather to your ideas are in it for the grift.
This means that when a new, 'new Right' rises in Brazil in 15-20 years, it will either pick and choose quite carefully what it wants from Olavo's ideas or will discard them completely. It will quite possibly have an enduring hatred of Olavo's 'students' to go with the hatred for the military that is being born even as we speak.
A few comments on what was said:
- BolsoLula has a bigger chance of happening than most people think - they are opposed rhetorically, but their actions are quite convergent. In fact, Lula has done more against leftist sacred cows than Bolsonaro did - Bolsonaro had the illusion that if he sought compromise, press, academia and artists would stop saying he was a genocidal homophobic misogynist, which shows how much of a fool he is. Lula doesn't give a fuck - what they are going to do if he(slightly) hurts their interests, vote for Bolsonaro?
The only thing that prevents BolsoLula from happening(and it's a strong barrier) is the fact Bolsonaro was turned into the Left's Emmanuel Goldstein, but if someone else that is further to the 'right' than Bolsonaro posed himself as, or is willing to do what Bolsonaro said he would, rises, and the STF isn't able to stop that rise? You'd get BolsoLula, just as you got a PT-PSDB alliance against Bolsonaro;
- holycookie is right regarding the left despising the rural world, 100%;
- About Olavo de Carvalho: he is the ideological founder of the current Brazilian Right, but what he founded won't endure. Why? Because he left no successor to consolidate what he did. His 'students', by and large, were interested in using what he was creating to improve their own personal situation(whether finacially, socially or politcally). This was shown by the fact that those who were purged first from Bolsonaro's government were those who were linked to Olavo(many of them were even removed by people who months before were quite loudly showing their 'olavist credentials'). Hard to create anything of lasting value when almost all of those who gather to your ideas are in it for the grift.
This means that when a new, 'new Right' rises in Brazil in 15-20 years, it will either pick and choose quite carefully what it wants from Olavo's ideas or will discard them completely. It will quite possibly have an enduring hatred of Olavo's 'students' to go with the hatred for the military that is being born even as we speak.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Odds we'll be seeing Lula vs Bolsonaro rematch in 2026 ?
gral
Well-known member
Zero. Bolsonaro is done. The only way Bolsonaro comes back(and it won't be in 2026) is if things go so horribly wrong for the establishment they'll put him up to try and save themselves('See, we were wrong , and now we are correcting our mistakes. So... don't kill us? Please?'). Not impossible, but if things go that wrong, Lula will be out of consideration.
A Lula reelection run in 2026 is quite possible(right now, it's the most likely scenario), though.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Basically, Lula is poised to being Brazil's longest-serving President with 16 years.
If I recall, didn't Vargas serve longer considering he served from 1930 to 1945; 1951 to 1954 ?
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
Hopefully the ràt bàstàrd doesn't làst à few more yeàrs.
filipina84
Well-known member
Lula is sick or something?
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
Not thàt I know of... his inner circle might know something or will if it ever hàppens.
gral
Well-known member
He's old(he should be 78 right now), and his habits aren't conductive to a long life.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Howdy from the Alamo City. Anything crazy happening in the Federative Republic of Brazil in terms of politics or entertainment ?
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Fighting over what exactly ?