Sergeant Foley
Well-known member
Wake me up when the goodies are gone and Brazilians turn on the WOKE freaks including Lula and his ilk of dummies!
The Americas 🇧🇷 Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread
- Thread starter 49ersfootball
- Start date
gral
Well-known member
Disagree with your first paragraph and with part of the second.
Lula and his party are socialists, this is undeniable. The kind of socialists they are is up to debate - in spite of their rhetoric, they have a lot in common with European Social Democrats and the US Democratic party(his party more than Lula; he dislikes most of the 'gender studies' and CRT crap, while many in his party are more sympathetic to those). So why are they cozying up to the 'other side'?
Money. Lula thought he would get a lot of money by playing the environmental factor, and that money would be quite welcome to pay all the bribes needed for the system to work, to cover the budget deficit(part of it Bolsonaro's fault, part of it not his fault), and the spending spree PT will have to indulge in in order to 'reward' the sectors of society sympathetic to PT(well, you could say these are bribes, too).
Back in late-January, early-February, it was even looking like it was going to work. Thing is, the Russo-Ukrainian War did a lot to harm the environmental agenda, not only by shifting concerns over the environment to concerns over Russia, but also by soaking up funding. Lula went to Biden hoping for billions; he got US$ 50 million(arguably, he has double that in Swiss banks already) and pressure to join in those who support Ukraine. Knocking the door of the Europeans(France, Germany, Norway) got him nothing as well. Who else has the money to offer? China. What we're seeing right now isn't ideological, it's Lula switching who gets to pimp Brazil by going over to the side who has more to offer.
BTW, every single one of the deals being signed between Brazil and China were constructed during the Bolsonaro administration. For someone who started his administration with a slight anti-China rhetoric and later announced to the whole world he would deal with anyone, he certainly played a big part in whoring out Brazil to China.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Basically Lula is continuing the deals that Bolsonaro had with PRC. I'm not surprised he's hostile to the CRT garbage (cannot blame him).
Brazilian Telenovela Archives: "Cara e Coragem" Capitulo 1
49ersfootball
Well-known member
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
So, who wants to place bets on how / when he gets couped?
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
You do know he is one of the reasons why there Day of Black Coscience in Brazil right?
Though, race relations 8 years ago (and from the looks of still are) much better than the US.
Then maybe it is because everyone looks mixed.
gral
Well-known member
Not now, even though he already got a warning shot across his bows yesterday. The economy has to tank some more before his seat is threatened.
That was out of political expediency. Pay attention to his 'gaffes', to some comments he lets out during interviews(especially the older ones), and you'll understand what he thinks of it.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
You're saying the Brazilian economy is on the verge of collapsing ? 🤔
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
Brazil is holding on ... so FAR. Despite that cretin of Haddad.
Brazils economy benfited from the most capital rich environment in human history which is now ending because the baby boomers are retiring. Thing is the thing that fucks them up as a country is the mountain range between their productive zones and the international ocean and that quite a bit of their coast line is shear cliffs.
Fixing that is an absolute pain in the ass and with out easy capital their going to have a bad time, to be fair lots of other countries are also fucked not just brazil and in Brazils case its mostly eternal and geographic factors that are fucking them.
gral
Well-known member
I meant something else(will go on more detail down below). Also, 'on the verge of collapsing' may be a bit too much, but...
PT had a plan for the economy in the 2023-26 period: do the same things they did in the 2003-08 one. This means: an overvalued Real, lower interest rates, easy credit for people, which leads to people buying new cars, refrigerators, TVs, and so on, stimulating economic growth through a major increase in consumption. With a better material situation, popularity of the current government rises, and the increased economic growth means there's more money for all the gimmies going around.
There's one big problem with that: overall conditions are not the same as they were back in 2003. Interest rates are not going down; Brazilian industry was savaged by the Chinese one, puting Brazil back in the condition of an exporter of agricultural products; the retail sector, a crucial part of PT's plan, is in the early phases of a meltdown. PT will not be able to enact its plan. It will be forced to rely on the agricultural sector and increased taxation to generate revenue for all the gimmies needed for the system to work. This increased taxation will have negative effects on the economy.
As a result, people will be dissatisfied(to say the least) with the current government. And now we come to what I really meant: you can't impeach a president without him/her/it tanking on popular approval before. Both impeached presidents had less than 15% approval rates(I think both were around 9-12% approval). Bolsonaro wasn't impeached , even with the press slinging shit on him 24-7, because he had a lockdown on enough voters(IIRC, he never got below 25% approval, and usually was at 30-40%) to make it unviable. Lula wasn't impeached at the Mensalão mainly because his popularity was high. So was FHC, in his first term(and in his second, he had Antônio Carlos Magalhães riding herd on Congress to bend it to his will - the only president since 1988 who managed to do that). The easiest way to tank a president's popularity is by having a recession. Therefore, the economy has to tank more than it's doing now for him to be open to impeachment threats.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
What about the Governorships & down-ballot offices in Brazil ? Is it split between the major political parties ?
gral
Well-known member
Don't matter too much right now; most need Federal money(most taxes are collected by the Federal Government, which then distributes the money for states and counties), and those who don't are currently following the government(São Paulo's Governor, TarcÃsio de Freitas, in particular; the funniest part of it is that he was considered to be Bolsonaro's successor...). This may change in the future, but right now Congress and the Federal Executive are the ones to watch.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Keep us all posted on further developments in the Brazilian Congress & Federal Executive branch.
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
barely has to do with Brazil but I thought that for once I could share something about my mother's country that wasn't politics.
Sobek
Disgusting Scalie
Brazilian gov just doing some autism against Bolsonaro. They are accusing him and a bunch of people who were connected to him of, get this: Conspiracy to fake vaccination status.
Arrested one of his cheifs of police just now, and demanding he comes in to "testify" again.
Arrested one of his cheifs of police just now, and demanding he comes in to "testify" again.
Sergeant Foley
Well-known member
Autism against Bolsonaro? Wondering how long before the Lula-ista freaks have Bolsonaro doing the perpwalk?
TheRejectionist
TheRejectionist
Lula seems to forget he is no longer popular that much anymore.
Sobek
Disgusting Scalie
He has taken another page out of the commie book, this time from Romania, and just relying on gaslighting people with the media to pretend he is Jesus 2.