Medvedev and Lavrov are the most likely successors.
Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2
- Thread starter Emperor Tippy
- Start date
you honestly think those two will handle that hand off in power peacefully?
I think they are the best positioned to survive the internal fights/purges when Putin kicks it.
Of course since they are close to Putin, they may also have the same ideas about Ukraine, so they may not withdraw without being made to.
So it may become a case where we just need to help internal rivals kill off Putin's successor(s) as well, and keep it up till someone sane takes power in the Kremlin.
Or just admit the Russian Federation needs to be broken up, to free many subject people's/republic's from Moscow's tyranny.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
It's incredibly hard to take down Russia fighting for its life. But it's not. Putin can declare Ukraine Russian land and legally send in the conscripts but Russians know the difference well enough that they aren't going to accept world war losses over it. People can ree about "existential threats" all they like (and Russian media doing exactly that is the reason war support is as high as it is) but the only tanks driving over the border are Russian and everyone knows it.
Civil War is a given. They're already fighting in minority republics with ancient babushkas throwing molotovs at Russian siloviki, press gangs and police. Dedushkas who last fought in the Sino Soviet War and a very few survivors from WW2 teaching the few unconscripted men and the women to fight.
Wether they'll last or the Russians can crush them with the military focused in Ukraine I don't know. I do know China is licking its lips looking at the Russian Far East.
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Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Mearshimer would rather blame the west for what Russia's done than admit he and his ilk were wrong about Russia in 2009-14 when everyone followed their advice about how cultivating economic ties, diplomatic concessions, and turning a blind eye to some "minor" invasions would soothe Russian paranoia that Bush stoked. It seemed to work for a while but it turns out Russian paranoia is as strong as vatniks think the Russian military is.
It is new and perhaps is a good sign for Ukraine, but they need to kill a lot more russians to collapse the system. Half a million at bear minimum more then a million realistically.
You misunderstand what is happening here.
The company who's warehouse burned was selling it's employees to be mobiks in the invasion, the employees got pissed, and now they burned down the warehouse.
When shit like this is going on in St. Petersburg, that is a sign that cannot be hushed over, because St. Pertersburg is second only to Moscow in importance and affluence.
When the people in the two primate cities of Russia start getting pissed and burning shit down like this, it shows the war's popularity in parts of Russia that the Kremlin cannot ignore or easily suppress is rising.
Shit that works to draft Siberian herders is not going to fly with the urbanites of Russia, and Putin/the Kremlin know this, and are very scared of the urbanites turning against them, and ending up like the Tsar after WW1.
Putins in a sunk cost falicy right now, he cant end the war with out losing a whole lot of face. So it continues until Russia can no longer fight. While yes this is a good sign, it just isn't enough.
More vatnik's favorite academic spinning vatnik's favorite bullshit to some retired politician who needs an extra buck, typical.
No, the war in Ukraine is not about NATO
Russia rediscovered its imperial vocation before NATO enlargement; the war in Ukraine is, in fact, about Putin’s great power ambitions.
thehill.com
Small steps, small steps.
This is an election year for Russia, and their election is in March/April, IIRC, so it's coming up fairly fast.
How Putin does in it, and how much the other 'controlled opposition' candidates get, will tell us a lot about how things are likely to go.
If the 'controlled opposition' get's too many votes, Putin will look weak internally, and that will make it easier for someone inside who is tired of the war to remove him.
Putin will not survive this war, the only question is if it's Ukraine or internal opposition who get him.
He's not a spring chicken we should add in natural causes to the list of things that might get him.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
More vatnik's favorite academic spinning vatnik's favorite bullshit to some retired politician who needs an extra buck, typical.
No, the war in Ukraine is not about NATO
Russia rediscovered its imperial vocation before NATO enlargement; the war in Ukraine is, in fact, about Putin’s great power ambitions.
An expected reaction, given that you outed yourself as a CCP enjoyer.
LMAO, big words coming from a huge simp of CCP ally country. Truly you are living up to the sheer incredibility of Russian state propaganda, are you finally gunning for a job there?
CCP itself also "believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States" if you look at their military expansion, so i think you are making a completely shitty troll argument here.