Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

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It's WAR. There's not much more personal than trying to kill the people in front of you.
 
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Just read this little quip, "The Defense Intelligence Agency's Trent Maul believes Ukrainian troops could break through all of Russia's defensive lines by the end of 2023, "Had we had this conversation two weeks ago, I would have been slightly more pessimistic," he admitted."

Lots of butt-covering in that statement, but it's definitely a change of opinion from the established intel bunnies."

I think the biggest question is going to be, "Will Russia be able to mount the same kind of winter offensive it did last year to try and seize some initiative back?" -- I think the answer is that they'll try, but it won't work b/c they've taken some heavy artillery losses. I do expect another heavy missile bombardment as Russia as held a lot of those munitions back for a while to build up stores.
 
Russia launched their largest Shahed/Geran Drone Attack yet across Northern Ukraine Including Targeting Kyiv Overnight and Into the Morning. Many Drones Were Downed. Some of the drones were painted Black apparently in an effort to obscure searchlights. One was even supposedly shot down by an assault rifle.


Documented Losses in the Ongoing Battles of Avdiivka.



Documented Losses in the Ongoing But Largely Stalled Out Zaporizhzhia Front.



The Russian Appointed Deputy Head of the Kharkiv Occupation Administration, one Oleksandr Slisarenko, Died When His Car Inexplicably Exploded Whilst He was Inside of It in the Russian City of Belgorod.



Russians Demolish a Holodomor Memorial in Occupied Kakhovka.



Leopard 1A5 Main Battle Tanks in Ukrainian Service.



A Russian Serial Killer Has Been Released From Custody Thanks to His Service in Ukraine. The forty four year old Denis Gorin from the island of Sakhalin, was serving his second prison sentence for murder (he was previously imprisoned for murder in 2003 but released seven years later due to good behavior) of upwards of a dozen suspected people including a child as well as refrigerating their bodies and consuming their flesh... He's free now after serving five years of his twenty two year sentence!

This is the second cannibal serial killer released via pardon due to military service. Nikolai Ogolobyakm a thirty three year old member of a Satanic Cult, ritualistically murdered four teenagers, including beheading two of them and stabbing one of them reportedly '666' times. He also fried and consumed the hearts and tongues of some of the victims after desecrating their corpses. Sentenced in 2010, he was supposed to remain in prison until 2030 but his six month stint service in a Storm Z Penal Unit means he was pardoned by President Vladimir Putin,


 
Large Storm Impacting Operations (and Life) in Russia At Least Temporarily. This Could Have ramifications in the War such as damage to defense booms and other measures used to protect the Kerch Bridge and Russian Ports or With Aircraft and Logistical Convoys.




The Chalyabinsk Tractor Plant Exploded For Some Reason. They Reportedly Are Involved in the Manufacture and Overhaul of T-72 Tank Engines.



Abrams Spotted For the First Time Near the Frontlines in Ukraine.



Red Effect did a Video Analysis of the M1A1 Abrams that the US Likely Sent to Ukraine and its strengths and weaknesses compared to some of the Russian tanks it will potentially face.



New Perun Video Talking About the Ukrainian Offensives in the Kherson Region Across the Dnipro, the Russian Offensives at Avdiivka and the Wake of the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Counter Offensive. One of the interesting things Perun points out in the video, in regards to Kherson is that the infrastructure on the Ukrainian held side of Kherson is far more well developed then that on the Russian held Left Bank allowing for easier supply and logistics. Also the Ukrainian held side of the Dnipro has a generally higher elevation. The Russian held side, even apart from the swamps which can impair both sides operations, has lots of wilderness and underdeveloped areas and even a desert impairing supply and sustainment operations. But its still really hard to produce and sustain a significant bridgehead without reliable bridges spanning a river like the Dnipro.



Another interesting observation is how he compares Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses with actual documented losses and stated the Ukrainian claims are about 60% above the documentation which is surprisingly tight for overclaiming and furthermore its consistent across losses of particularly vehicle types showing there's more nuance and consideration given into Ukrainian official claims instead of just "throwing darts at the board" so to speak in this instance.
 
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Reported Ukraine is Domestically Manufacturing 15,000 Drones a Month. Last Summer it was reported that Ukraine was expending about 10,000 drones a month.


Thus this is likely the Fate of Many FPV style Drones From Both Sides. Downed by Electronic Warfare.



Analysis of the Russian Electronic Warfare and Jamming Defenses Being Utilized in Crimea. Specifically discusses how several Russian boats, via EW warfare and jamming, are having their locations often reported as being at Sevastopol International Airport, several miles inland from the port they are actually berthed at according to their AIS (automated identification system). GPS jammers have been used to protect Putin's vacation home, Moscow proper, and even St. Petersburg during military parades. In spite of the jamming however (and Russian air defense centered on the S-400's), Ukraine delivered several impressive successful strikes on Russian military assets in Crimea.


Ukrainian Pravda reports that the wife of Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's Intelligence Chief, was poisoned with "heavy metals." Marianna is suspected to have been poisoned via food, as were several other individuals. She's currently undergoing treatment at a hospital.


Thread Discussing Unpatriotic Russians Not Desiring Their Loved Ones Being Mobilized and Deployed Indefinitely For Future Waves of Mobilization Service in the Ukrainian Special Military Operation. Also interesting comments on how Russian propaganda media recommends authorities grab future mobiks from night clubs, not office centers so as not to attract attention. Also things like medical or academic deferments are being ignored.



Aftermath of Russian Attacks North of Avdiivka.



Leopard 1A5 Tank In Operation Near Kharkiv Where Its Already Snowy. Ukraine is Reported to Receive about 130 of these Leopard 1A5 Tanks in the Near Future.





Russians are blaming their own AD system for 5, not 4, shootdown by possible friendly fire a few days back.

Seems Russian IFF systems are still out-of-service more than in-service.


Ukrainian Air Force Supports the Claim that the Five Russian Aircraft Lost Over Russia Back in May Were Downed by Ukrainian Recently Acquired Patriot Air Defense Systems. Article also details, along with downing five Russian Aircraft in "Five Minutes" over Bryansk Russia, some time later they downed another Su-35 over the Black Sea and have been used to intercept Russian missiles many times since them, including Iskanders as well as fifteen Kinzhal/Dagger Hypersonic Missiles.

 
Be free Dolphin Bros! Be free! 🐬🐬🐬🐬🐬
Allegedly in the 1990s a Polish RPG player was told by his grandma - "there's a movie in the cinema about your games. You know, the ones where you roll coloured beads - it's titled "Free the Orc" :)
 
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That tweet sucks.
Not "highway" but "rail line".
And the BAM is NOT the main RR link between Russia and China. I'd even say that the BAM does NOT connect Russia and China at all.
Sheesh - geography, people ...
 
That tweet sucks.
Not "highway" but "rail line".
And the BAM is NOT the main RR link between Russia and China. I'd even say that the BAM does NOT connect Russia and China at all.
Sheesh - geography, people ...

Yeah the article in Engrish translation uses road and rail terminology interchangeably but it does seem like it was a railway that underwent explosions whilst a freight train was transiting through the Bezsolov North-Mui tunnel along one of the three Trans-Siberian routes (as per the article). If it was a SBU operation it's impressive it occurred thousands of kilometers away from Ukraine.

More impressive if the tunnel integrity was compromised since railways are far easier to repair then tunnels.
 
Anyone have a figure on the total Ukraine vs Russian man power lost that's more or less accurate and not highly exaggerated?
 
Damaging that tunnel is meaningless.
One - there is a perfectly working and used for normal operations bypass around it.
Two - there are the following RR connecting Russia and China:
- Transsiberian - maybe it has low throughput, as it was designed and built a long time ago?
- Transmongolian - I suspect single track;
- Transkazakhstan - I know nothing about it.

TBH only the BAM and TSR do not cross other countries, which may be of some importance for shipping military thingies.
Claims of "main link to China" etc. are targetting ignorant lemmings.
Me? I be SMART lemming!

I admit that an attack at Russian infrastructure so far away from Ukraine will make Russia spend more on LOC security, increasing haemmorage of money and personell, so there is SOME military benefit for Kiev here.
 
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Ukrainian Intelligence Services Report Having Struck a Bridge Deep in Russia that was being used as an Alternate Route for the Tunnel they had previously struck through explosive sabotage.




Binkov Battlegrounds Does a Video Studying on Whether Russia's Gains in This Conflict So Far Have Been Worth the Cost and Expense Including Potential Natural Resources, Industries Seized and People They Now Control in Occupied Territories and more and Balancing it Against the Sanctions and Lives and Equipment Lost etc.



Russia Reportedly Planning On Bringing in More Central Asians to Populate the Occupied Regions of Southern Ukraine Like They Have Done in Other Parts of Ukraine Such as Mariupol Already.



First Documented Loss of an Indigenously Produced Ukrainian 80K6M Mobile 3D Radar Station by a Russian Lancet Loitering Munition.



Another day, another call for the cleansing of Ukraine and Ukrainians, this time by former Ukrainian politician Ihor Markov whose spent the past decade trotting about Russian Media talking about how he wants his home country liquidated.

 
So the attacks on the bottleneck area of BAM are continued/wider than initially reported. Smart!
I've done some reading - the bypass has 2 promile gradients and is curvacious. That slows down traffic a lot (and is reason for tunnel to begin with).
The TSR has a similar case of steep and windy track as it passes over the mountains to the SW of Lake Baikal.
 
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