Tiamat
I've seen the future...
Also doesn't help them that Russians have always struggled with logistics to an extent it seems.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
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Also doesn't help them that Russians have always struggled with logistics to an extent it seems.
Tiamat
I've seen the future...
I meant to reply to this earlier. I would hesitate to go so far that the front is "collapsing". The Ukrainians, as @Carrot of Truth alluded to, have to be mindful of their supply lines and not overextend themselves, and fortify the ground they've taken.
That said, the past 48 hours have not been good for the Russians. There was a lot of hype and emphasis, perhaps deliberately by the Ukrainians on the Kherson offensive, which was foreseen for at least a month and hence the Russians seemed to shift some focus there. The problem is once those main bridges across the Dnieper get shelled and blow, ditto for the pontoons and ferries, it gets harder to supply and more importantly, shift those forces away from the west side of the bank while the Ukrainians launched the offensive in the north. Kherson is still a hard slog for the Ukrainians and they've take casualties, but what's happened here in the past several days? The Russians are on the defensive after a 6+ month campaign that was originally supposed to not have lasted more than a few weeks.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
God, this sounds like the Hundred Days Offensive of World War One. It does appear they are actually collapsing.
Batrix2070
RON/PLC was a wonderful country.
That is, it is happening as I suspected as soon as I heard that the entire Russian reserve corps wasflipped over Kherson by the actions of the Ukrainians.
What is this all about?
Namely, when the Ukrainians initially began to pose as offensive actions on the Kherson direction, the Russians pulled a huge force there to repel a possible strike, which of course eventually occurred and was stopped, unlike the one in the north.
But as soon as I heard this at last something clicked in my mind about what the Ukrainians really wanted to do.
Namely, to pull back as many forces as possible from the rest of the front at Kherson, to hit the bridges and other crossings, not to, or perhaps rather not exclusively to hinder resupply but to hinder taking those Russian units on the right side of the Dnieper River back to where they were really needed.
The Ukrainians deceived the Russians that the main offensive was to go to Kherson when in fact it was to go near Kharkov, the one to Kherson was an auxiliary but vital offensive to the northern strike for it took away any operational reserves the Russian command could throw to the aid of its troops.
Thus, the Ukrainians succeeded in completely collapsing the Russians' defensive lines at the operational level, while the analogous offensive at Kherson turned from an attempt to break in to an attempt to dislodge and tie up the Russians with fighting.
And considering that the units that pushed out the Russians in the style of the analogous Frederick II operation of 1941 were the same ones that had been there since the beginning of the war, I can say one thing.
The one who came up with this plan was a genius.
What is this all about?
Namely, when the Ukrainians initially began to pose as offensive actions on the Kherson direction, the Russians pulled a huge force there to repel a possible strike, which of course eventually occurred and was stopped, unlike the one in the north.
But as soon as I heard this at last something clicked in my mind about what the Ukrainians really wanted to do.
Namely, to pull back as many forces as possible from the rest of the front at Kherson, to hit the bridges and other crossings, not to, or perhaps rather not exclusively to hinder resupply but to hinder taking those Russian units on the right side of the Dnieper River back to where they were really needed.
The Ukrainians deceived the Russians that the main offensive was to go to Kherson when in fact it was to go near Kharkov, the one to Kherson was an auxiliary but vital offensive to the northern strike for it took away any operational reserves the Russian command could throw to the aid of its troops.
Thus, the Ukrainians succeeded in completely collapsing the Russians' defensive lines at the operational level, while the analogous offensive at Kherson turned from an attempt to break in to an attempt to dislodge and tie up the Russians with fighting.
And considering that the units that pushed out the Russians in the style of the analogous Frederick II operation of 1941 were the same ones that had been there since the beginning of the war, I can say one thing.
The one who came up with this plan was a genius.
Russians fight until they cant fight any more.
I still think the Ukranians need to kill a lot more russians before they even think of quitting and this wars going to drag on for longer but I am pleasantly surprised at how well they are doing.
Well yes, that is why we gave Ukraine HIMARs and HARMS; hard to fight if you don't have shells for your arty and your AA is scared to turn on their radars.
I think the Russian military of WW2 and early Cold War your calcs seem to draw from is not the Russian military of today. Zhukov would be rolling his grave at FTL speeds if he saw how badly the current Russian army is preforming.
This is closer to the WW1 Russian army, if that; if Russian didn't have nukes no one would take them any more seriously than we take Assad/Syrian. They are having to beg for drones from Iran and shells from the Norks; the Ayetollah's and Kimmy Boy are able to make Putin their bitch.
The internet also means the Russian gov cannot stop the flow of info very easily without people calling it out and finding other channels of comms. The Moscow Founding Day celebration is soon, watch what Putin says there to see how he may decide to react to this defeat,
Well about that..............
The Russian Troops don't exactly have much motivation to die to the last man.
Entirely different system and culture, their opinion really does not matter, until the will to fight is broken conscripts will be sent in to fight and die. With the idea being that raw numbers will over come training and motivation.
The will to fight does not even exist in these guys. When they see an opportunity to run for it. They do. A lot. Videos can be found on the internet of them doing just that.
and that helps but its not their will to fight that matters but their comander's and the leadership back home.
that means the Ukranians have to kill a lot more people, they have to bleed Russia so hard that they scream uncle and that means killing these guys before they flee or during their flight. Because those same fleeing conscripts can and will be forced to fight another day.
They don't have raw numbers anymore, and the only way to get them would be a full mobilization/war declaration.
HIMARs and HARMs also make getting shit to the front rather difficult, regardless of numbers.
Having all the men and shells in the world, which Russia does not have anymore and hasn't for a while (ghost soldiers like the Afghans are a real corruption problem, plus just selling off shit.
This video is from May, you should watch it and then take another look at the current events.
Russian Media is confirming Ukraine is using those units trained in Britain... no doubt led by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself as originally reported by OSINT accounts back in July.
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Tiamat
I've seen the future...
Ukraine Forces Retake Control of Key Russian Stronghold
Heavy fighting comes a week after Ukrainian forces launched military Counteroffensive offensive against Russia in the eastern Kharkiv region
www.voanews.com
Apparently after quitting Twitter, that Armchair Warlord guy came back to Twitter just yesterday.
He's been posting a great deal of fresh air for all of you to cope with.
Keep in mind all of this was posted less than twenty four hours ago.
I do agree that Russian forces should stay and fight and yes... they have a moral obligation to stand their ground (not in towns though because then the liberated will face undue Ukrainian aggression and hostility) and do so heedless of potential Russian casualties or capture.
He's been posting a great deal of fresh air for all of you to cope with.
Keep in mind all of this was posted less than twenty four hours ago.
I do agree that Russian forces should stay and fight and yes... they have a moral obligation to stand their ground (not in towns though because then the liberated will face undue Ukrainian aggression and hostility) and do so heedless of potential Russian casualties or capture.
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