Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Sailor.X said:
Did I stutter. Heavy intense war is a Meatgrinder. And the Ukrainians are defending their country. Russia is the invader here. And the one that picked the fight in the first place. Then they send in green troops to invade another country. One side has the moral right one side does not. And the Russians aren't the morale ones in this fight.
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Yes, you did, as evidenced by the fact you immediately had to shift the discussion to one of the morality of the war instead of responding to the specific criticisms of the material nature of the conflict. I know you're full of shit, you know you're full of shit, and that's why you did it. The fake tough guy attempt doesn't impress me.

Bacle said:
I did a 180 when presented with visual evidence that had no other explanation but that Russia was planning to move armor through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone via the Belurussian border.

Also, I think that tweet might have been a tongue-in-cheek jab at how many Russian generals have been killed.

But all you are trying to do is low-effort snipes at me and others because you simp for Putin-Senpai.
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An odd series of claims to make, complete with bluster of a most curious obscuring character, but unfortunately we have the receipts:

Bacle said:
No, I'd say just split it at the Dnieper.

It's a natural boundary that already exists, and more accurately reflects the political situation. than most lines on a map from what I've seen.
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Bacle said:
Huh, though Kiev was farther west and not on the river.

Do you have a map of the current conflict lines to over lay on that.

Also, where are the edges of the Chernobyl exclusion zone; need to factor administering that into any partition plan.

Maybe have the Dnieper be the border up to the where it starts heading west, then sent the border north from that.

Russia gets a buffer and landbridge to Crimea, Ukraine keeps access to the Black Sea.
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Zachowon said:
Boom see.
Now he is in the same post as you and you got notified.

But X isn't wrong.
The west was right in the end about the invasion and told Ukraine ahead of time.
They called the invasion and everyone did an 180 because "Oh shit!" And then Kiev responded better then we all hoped and made Russia bleed
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And I did respond? Not sure what the rest of this post has to do with the original point, specifically given the above quotes lol.

Zachowon said:
No, the Azovstal members have nit been seen yet so they are waiting
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The Russians literally have posted videos and photos of them being taken into custody and then their wounded getting treated.

Megadeath said:
Weird how you can't debate the point, just throw snide and baseless insults.
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Hence why I said they should @ me next time, if you actually want a debate. By all means, which point would you like me to respond to?
 
Bacle said:
You obviously have not kept up with the sanctions leveled at Russia, or you'd know the no longer have the parts to make more high-end SAMs for themselves, never mind for export.

Taiwan cut of thier microchip supply, and without those, they cannot make much of thier best stuff anymore.
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You continue to show how little you truly know of the situation, so perhaps you should learn to cut down the bluster on things you clearly don't know about? From Janes:

Russia begins series production of S-500 air-defence system, 27 APRIL 2022

The S-500 long-range surface-to-air missile system has entered series production, Almaz-Antey CEO Yan Novikov told the Russian National Defence journal on 25 April in an interview commemorating 20 years of thecorporation.​
​
Novikov also mentioned the S-400 and Tor-M2 air defence systems, in addition to identifyingthe Buk-M3 and S-350 Vityaz as the concern's most promising export prospects, referring to the two medium-range systems as Almaz-Antey's “calling cards”.​
​
The 9K317M Buk-M3 and 50R6 S-350 are in service with the Russian Armed Forces. The Buk-M3 made its combat debut during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Viking is the name of an export iteration of the Buk-M3.​
​
The exact characteristics of the S-500 Prometey (Prometheus), allocated a UV PVO index code of 55R6M and the research and development effort, which was codenamed ‘Triumfator-M', are the subject of debate, but according to official Russian sources the system can engage targets at a maximum altitude of 100–200 km and at a range of 500–600 km, depending on the speed, size, and radar cross-section of the target. An unnamed US intelligence source told CNBC in May 2018 that the system's missile struck a target 481 km away during a test.​

Sanctions hurt the Russians so bad they not only are still producing the S-400, they've started serial production of the even more advanced S-500 lol.
 
Megadeath said:
Yeah... The teens thing has already been gone over, and the idea that <2,500 Russians have died is utterly ridiculous. The only thing I could find from the BBC was them sharing the MoD belief that Russian losses amount to approximately a third of the preinvasion force. Even the Russian government bs was that they'd lost 1,350 by 25th March. It's entirely implausible with everything since that they've suffered less than that in twice as long since.
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It literally took me 10 seconds to find the BBC article in question, which has their estimate based off their own research as of May 12th showing less than 2,500 Russian KIA. Maybe you should take the time to actually look up things before trying to argue on them, when it's clear you don't know anything?

Are you seriously trying to suggest that somehow Ukrainian forces teleported to Russian controlled territory, attempted a river crossing back into their own area, and other elements of their own force destroyed them? That's the stupidest take I've heard on any element of this since @Agent23 was trying to guess how many hours the invasion would take if it did happen.
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No, but that's precisely what you're suggesting in reverse lol.

If the Russians were in a Russian controlled area, why exactly where they attempting a river crossing and who exactly was shooting at them? Or, you know, it's exactly what I said and anybody putting more than five seconds of critical thinking into it would realize that; the Russians controlled one side of the river, the Ukies the other and the Russians did a combat crossing of it. Since both sides have AFVs, they naturally would be shooting at each other and take losses of the same. The destroyed vehicles in the video are quite clearly of both sides and even if wanted to ignore those with Ukie specific camo patterns and assign all of the vehicle losses to the Russians, the idea an entire BTG-or three, as someone else seriously suggested lol-was lost isn't consistent with less than two dozen vehicles seen in the video.
 
History Learner said:
Yes, you did, as evidenced by the fact you immediately had to shift the discussion to one of the morality of the war instead of responding to the specific criticisms of the material nature of the conflict. I know you're full of shit, you know you're full of shit, and that's why you did it. The fake tough guy attempt doesn't impress me.
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Son my Kabar has seen more military operations than you ever will. You come on this board portraying yourself as some sort of expert on well everything but you don't know shit. All you know is stuff you might have read on some website. You have no practical experience in any military operation and probably have never been shot at in real life. I don't pretend to be a tough guy. I work a job where I must keep the peace in an industrial facility. I was hired because I am big an tough. You well the jury is still out on.........

Russia is in the wrong. Russia has been in the wrong since the end of World War 2. Nothing they have done since 1945 is praiseworthy. And anything the did that you might consider good was done because they had no damn choice but to do it. All of the tension between the West and Russia is ALL Russia's fault. They chose to cling to old Soviet thinking. They chose to think the West is constantly trying to invade them. They chose to invade neighboring countries to bully them. And they chose to threaten to nuke countries that dared to aid Ukraine. So excuse me for pointing out how shit the pro Russia position is. Others here who see's Russia's evil actions have more than pointed all of this out already.
 
History Learner said:
An odd series of claims to make, complete with bluster of a most curious obscuring character, but unfortunately we have the receipts:
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Yeah, posts I made before the evidence of the pontoon bridge being placed on the Belarusian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone was put up by @Zachowon, which is where I started flipping 180.

Before then I had thought maybe the invasion was a bluff to apply political pressure for a settlement; after that, I realized talking wasn't going to stop things from happening.

So all you've shown is that I am capable of learning and absorbing new info and admitting I'm wrong when shown evidence of such.
 
Sailor.X said:
Son my Kabar has seen more military operations than you ever will. You come on this board portraying yourself as some sort of expert on well everything but you don't know shit. All you know is stuff you might have read on some website. You have no practical experience in any military operation and probably have never been shot at in real life. I don't pretend to be a tough guy. I work a job where I must keep the peace in an industrial facility. I was hired because I am big an tough. You well the jury is still out on...
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Cool story, dude. Am I supposed to be impressed now? You'll forgive me if I'm rather doubtful of your credentials when you in the past, for example, asserted the PLA invaded Hainan with a 40 mile long pontoon bridge.

Russia is in the wrong. Russia has been in the wrong since the end of World War 2. Nothing they have done since 1945 is praiseworthy. And anything the did that you might consider good was done because they had no damn choice but to do it. All of the tension between the West and Russia is ALL Russia's fault. They chose to cling to old Soviet thinking. They chose to think the West is constantly trying to invade them. They chose to invade neighboring countries to bully them. And they chose to threaten to nuke countries that dared to aid Ukraine. So excuse me for pointing out how shit the pro Russia position is. Others here who see's Russia's evil action have more than pointed all of this out already.
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A longer winded version of you continuing to dodge what the initial point was to engage in some weird moral language denuded of any of the original context. There's easier ways of admitting you were wrong instead of continuing to waste both my time and yours with ducking and dodging.
 
History Learner said:
You continue to show how little you truly know of the situation, so perhaps you should learn to cut down the bluster on things you clearly don't know about? From Janes:

Russia begins series production of S-500 air-defence system, 27 APRIL 2022

The S-500 long-range surface-to-air missile system has entered series production, Almaz-Antey CEO Yan Novikov told the Russian National Defence journal on 25 April in an interview commemorating 20 years of thecorporation.​
​
Novikov also mentioned the S-400 and Tor-M2 air defence systems, in addition to identifyingthe Buk-M3 and S-350 Vityaz as the concern's most promising export prospects, referring to the two medium-range systems as Almaz-Antey's “calling cards”.​
​
The 9K317M Buk-M3 and 50R6 S-350 are in service with the Russian Armed Forces. The Buk-M3 made its combat debut during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Viking is the name of an export iteration of the Buk-M3.​
​
The exact characteristics of the S-500 Prometey (Prometheus), allocated a UV PVO index code of 55R6M and the research and development effort, which was codenamed ‘Triumfator-M', are the subject of debate, but according to official Russian sources the system can engage targets at a maximum altitude of 100–200 km and at a range of 500–600 km, depending on the speed, size, and radar cross-section of the target. An unnamed US intelligence source told CNBC in May 2018 that the system's missile struck a target 481 km away during a test.​

Sanctions hurt the Russians so bad they not only are still producing the S-400, they've started serial production of the even more advanced S-500 lol.
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Yeah, and how many of those units are on order vs actually being assembled?

What's the parts and precursor stockpile look like?

Because having a few new systems come online that were in the pipe before the invasion is far different than having the resources for a full scale production run.

Or have you not notice the distinct lack of T-14's in the Russian forces in Ukraine, or how Russia has resorted to massed arty fires because their PGM and SRBM/IRBM stockpile is dangerously low.
 
Bacle said:
Yeah, posts I made before the evidence of the pontoon bridge being placed on the Belarusian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone was put up by @Zachowon, which is where I started flipping 180.

Before then I had thought maybe the invasion was a bluff to apply political pressure for a settlement; after that, I realized talking wasn't going to stop things from happening.

So all you've shown is that I am capable of learning and absorbing new info and admitting I'm wrong when shown evidence of such.
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Which has nothing to do with the fact that you spent all of January and most of February shilling for Ukraine east of the Dnieper to be ceded to Russia, and then for some reason flipped because of a....pontoon bridge lol?
 
History Learner said:
You continue to show how little you truly know of the situation, so perhaps you should learn to cut down the bluster on things you clearly don't know about? From Janes:

Russia begins series production of S-500 air-defence system, 27 APRIL 2022

The S-500 long-range surface-to-air missile system has entered series production, Almaz-Antey CEO Yan Novikov told the Russian National Defence journal on 25 April in an interview commemorating 20 years of thecorporation.​
​
Novikov also mentioned the S-400 and Tor-M2 air defence systems, in addition to identifyingthe Buk-M3 and S-350 Vityaz as the concern's most promising export prospects, referring to the two medium-range systems as Almaz-Antey's “calling cards”.​
​
The 9K317M Buk-M3 and 50R6 S-350 are in service with the Russian Armed Forces. The Buk-M3 made its combat debut during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Viking is the name of an export iteration of the Buk-M3.​
​
The exact characteristics of the S-500 Prometey (Prometheus), allocated a UV PVO index code of 55R6M and the research and development effort, which was codenamed ‘Triumfator-M', are the subject of debate, but according to official Russian sources the system can engage targets at a maximum altitude of 100–200 km and at a range of 500–600 km, depending on the speed, size, and radar cross-section of the target. An unnamed US intelligence source told CNBC in May 2018 that the system's missile struck a target 481 km away during a test.​

Sanctions hurt the Russians so bad they not only are still producing the S-400, they've started serial production of the even more advanced S-500 lol.
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The 500 is untested and the Ukrainians still flying with the S 400s.
The Russian systems are heavily untested snd unknown if they are as good as they claim
 
Bacle said:
Yeah, and how many of those units are on order vs actually being assembled?

What's the parts and precursor stockpile look like?

Because having a few new systems come online that were in the pipe before the invasion is far different than having the resources for a full scale production run.
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So I take you don't understand what the difference between the words "order" and "production" are? Can you also explain to me how serial production starting in April means they were in production before a war that started in February? Finally, can you then explain what the term "serial production" means with regards to you talking about full scale production means?

I think most of your core beliefs, to be blunt, depend on not knowing what the definitions of words mean at this point, because literally everything you just said is directly contradicted by that Janes article.

Or have you not notice the distinct lack of T-14's in the Russian forces in Ukraine, or how Russia has resorted to massed arty fires because their PGM and SRBM/IRBM stockpile is dangerously low.
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Ah yes, the Russians are running out of PGMs and Cruise Missiles-again, I don't think you understand what you're talking about when you're using terms like SRBMs-since early March when this claim was first made. Meanwhile all of Central and Western Ukraine is under air raid alarm this night and Lvov just ate eight cruise missiles, which Ukie sources are directly saying is the most powerful attack of the war so far upon them.

As for the Russians using massed artillery, that might have something to do with the fact the entire BTG concept is built around artillery and is the center of their doctrine of fighting, dating back to WWII? If you see this as some weakness, God help you when you find out the U.S. Military is heavily investing in MLRs and conventional artillery.
 
History Learner said:
Which has nothing to do with the fact that you spent all of January and most of February shilling for Ukraine east of the Dnieper to be ceded to Russia, and then for some reason flipped because of a....pontoon bridge lol?
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I was operating under one set of data, where I thought the invasion would not happen and the build up was a bluff, and that a peaceful partition was possible if not a great outcome.

And yes, fucking around in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, and preparing to send armor through it was such a monumentally stupid thing that it would have concerned me if anyone was stupid enough to attempt it, regardless of politics or anything else.

Radiation and radioactive debris does not give a fuck about politics, it can jack the land up for thousands of years if some idiot does the wrong thing; you know, like how Chernobyl happened in the first place.

So yes, I started flipping when I saw Russia was about to go full retard and do some monumentally stupid things, showing that I was mistaken to think Putin was a rational actor and that the invasion wasn't a bluff.

Unlike you, I am capable of learning and changing my views as new data is presented, and don't stake my ego or pride on being 'right' in perpetuity.
 
Bacle said:
I was operating under one set of data, where I thought the invasion would not happen and the build up was a bluff, and that a peaceful partition was possible if not a great outcome.
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Ah yes, a great moral stand for the Ukrainians to surrender half of their territory with no fight at all, to which you had no problem with before and now have flipped for some reason. You didn't learn because of new data, you flipped because you started reading stuff like NEXTA and how bizarre your Pre-War views are to now shows this.

And yes, fucking around in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, and preparing to send armor through it was such a monumentally stupid thing that it would have concerned me if anyone was stupid enough to attempt it, regardless of politics or anything else.

Radiation and radioactive debris does not give a fuck about politics, it can jack the land up for thousands of years if some idiot does the wrong thing; you know, like how Chernobyl happened in the first place.

So yes, I started flipping when I saw Russia was about to go full retard and do some monumentally stupid things, showing that I was mistaken to think Putin was a rational actor and that the invasion wasn't a bluff.

Unlike you, I am capable of learning and changing my views as new data is presented, and don't stake my ego or pride on being 'right' in perpetuity.
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If you're capable of learning because of new data, you might want to start learning about radiation and nuclear energy because nothing you're saying here makes the least bit of sense. The Russians could've bombarded the CEZ with mass MLRs and artillery fire and it would've done absolutely nothing.
 
History Learner said:
So I take you don't understand what the difference between the words "order" and "production" are? Can you also explain to me how serial production starting in April means they were in production before a war that started in February? Finally, can you then explain what the term "serial production" means with regards to you talking about full scale production means?

I think most of your core beliefs, to be blunt, depend on not knowing what the definitions of words mean at this point, because literally everything you just said is directly contradicted by that Janes article.



Ah yes, the Russians are running out of PGMs and Cruise Missiles-again, I don't think you understand what you're talking about when you're using terms like SRBMs-since early March when this claim was first made. Meanwhile all of Central and Western Ukraine is under air raid alarm this night and Lvov just ate eight cruise missiles, which Ukie sources are directly saying is the most powerful attack of the war so far upon them.

As for the Russians using massed artillery, that might have something to do with the fact the entire BTG concept is built around artillery and is the center of their doctrine of fighting, dating back to WWII? If you see this as some weakness, God help you when you find out the U.S. Military is heavily investing in MLRs and conventional artillery.
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I know what words mean, such as 'logistics' 'sanctions' and 'parts on hand via parts on order'. Sure Russia can build a few of these systems as prestige items to protect critical locations, but they are unlikely to have the parts for long term production of the same quality.

I mean they may keep producing S-500 missile bodies, but don't count on the fancy innards which are the real critical bits being in all of them, and expect most of them to be like the T-14s; prestige items Russia has very few of, becasue they can only afford a few of them, and now with the sanctions biting all military production, don't bet on many units of being produced to claimed standards.
 
Bacle said:
I know what words mean, such as 'logistics' 'sanctions' and 'parts on hand via parts on order'. Sure Russia can build a few of these systems as prestige items to protect critical locations, but they are unlikely to have the parts for long term production of the same quality.
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Leaving aside the fact you've goal post shifted from saying they couldn't build any at all, it's time to either admit you were wrong or provide evidence. Since you didn't seem to read it the first time, allow me to re-quote it for you:

The S-500 long-range surface-to-air missile system has entered series production, Almaz-Antey CEO Yan Novikov told the Russian National Defence journal on 25 April in an interview commemorating 20 years of the corporation.​

I welcome you to cite where in this sentence, or the article at large, it says they are only building a few. Rather, it directly states they are doing serial production, which means "full scale production run", to use your own parlance.

I mean they may keep producing S-500 missile bodies, but don't count on the fancy innards which are the real critical bits being in all of them, and expect most of them to be like the T-14s; prestige items Russia has very few of, becasue they can only afford a few of them, and now with the sanctions biting all military production, don't bet on many units of being produced to claimed standards.
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Except the Janes article I've provided is directly saying that's all false and they've started mass production. As I said, it's time to either use your ability to look at data and change your opinions to admit you're wrong, or start providing evidence. As I said to you elsewhere, you need to stop reading Western psy-op stuff like NEXTA in favor of actually researching this, because nothing you're claiming here is actually backed up by the data.
 
History Learner said:
Cool story, dude. Am I supposed to be impressed now? You'll forgive me if I'm rather doubtful of your credentials when you in the past, for example, asserted the PLA invaded Hainan with a 40 mile long pontoon bridge.



A longer winded version of you continuing to dodge what the initial point was to engage in some weird moral language denuded of any of the original context. There's easier ways of admitting you were wrong instead of continuing to waste both my time and yours with ducking and dodging.
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You are the whataboutism master not me. From day one I have been saying Russia was in the wrong for invading Ukraine. And from day one you have been using whataboutism with everyone you debate in this and other threads. I don't care what you think about me. But I do care about you spreading misinformation. And you seem to be very eagerly doing that in your posts.
 
Sailor.X said:
You are the whataboutism master not me. From day one I have been saying Russia was in the wrong for invading Ukraine. And from day one you have been using whataboutism with everyone you debate in this and other threads. I don't care what you think about me. But I do care about you spreading misinformation. And you seem to be very eagerly doing that in your posts.
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Cool story dude, if you feel I'm spreading misinformation, by all means let's return to my original post so you can tell me what I'm wrong about:

History Learner said:
2,336 KIA since the start of the conflict, according to the same BBC; if that's a meat grinder and the Russian Army is but cannon fodder, what does this say about the Ukrainian Government admitting their own losses are 2,500–3,000 killed in Mid-April? If you really want to talk about cannon fodder, let's talk about the Ukrainians sending teenagers into battle with just three days training in total.
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Weirdly, the morality of the war isn't the topic that started our dialogue. It's almost as if you decided to engage in that goal post shift precisely because you couldn't argue with what I was actually talking about in the original post. Most strange!
 
History Learner said:
Cool story dude, if you feel I'm spreading misinformation, by all means let's return to my original post so you can tell me what I'm wrong about:



Weirdly, the morality of the war isn't the topic that started our dialogue. It's almost as if you decided to engage in that goal post shift precisely because you couldn't argue with what I was actually talking about in the original post. Most strange!
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Yes you are spreading misinformation because it is all men of fighting age not just teenagers. As in a full mobilization of the male population. Unlike Russia.
Ukraine Conscripts Head to Battlefield to Fight Russia Invasion (theintercept.com)
 
Sailor.X said:
Yes you are spreading misinformation because it is all men of fighting age not just teenagers. As in a full mobilization of the male population. Unlike Russia.
Ukraine Conscripts Head to Battlefield to Fight Russia Invasion (theintercept.com)
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Can you please quote me where I said they were only sending teenagers lol? But sure, if you want to go down this particular route I'm game:

"They're sending young boys AND the old men to the battlefield with just a few days training! Meanwhile the Russians are sending only their trained professionals, clearly they are just using them like cannon fodder!"
 
History Learner said:
Can you please quote me where I said they were only sending teenagers lol? But sure, if you want to go down this particular route I'm game:

"They're sending young boys AND the old men to the battlefield with just a few days training! Meanwhile the Russians are sending only their trained professionals, clearly they are just using them like cannon fodder!"
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One side is mobilizing to expel invaders the other is the invader. As to trained professional............ You sure you want to say that. The same professionals that don't know how to properly secure the other side of a river before they try to make a bridge. The same professionals who thought making a long line convoy that could be easily attacked by any combatant with half a brain was a good idea. The same trained professionals that lost their Black Sea Flagship to a nation that no longer has a Navy. The same professionals that thought it was a good idea to dig trenches in the Red fucking Forest? You gonna post that with a straight face. Really. Dude go back to where ever you came from because that is one of the dumbest things that has been posted here given all the news about this war that is known by now.
 
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