Seems fairly obvious at this juncture that the "War in the Donbass" is a feint to fix Ukrainian troops in place for the real offensive. If Russia wanted to steamroll the Ukrainians in the Donbass they could but their goal is to grind them down.
Keep in mind the Spring Mud will dry soon and then the Russians will launch their true offensive... Towards Odessa as has always been the goal. They don't care about the Donbass. All of the signs point to a Odessa offensive to link up with Transnistria and that arid terrain.
What's amazing about Deep Battle Doctrine of Russia is that even if that stalls... Which it won't, but hypothetically if it did, that too is a feint for the real objective... Which always was the Left Hook from Belarus down into Northwestern Ukraine.
Keep in mind Belarusian forces are untouched and with the Ukrainians distracted in the South and East they won't be able to move whatever troop remnants are left on devastated infrastructure to Northwestern Ukraine in time because of the forests and swamps... Which also means Ukraine won't defend that area as well due to terrain. But we've seen in the Winter War that trees and swamps won't stop Russian forces!
This the Russian forces will sweep in from the North, take over Western Ukraine and then do what is known as an operational pause for the real strike.
With Polish and German and NO ATO stocks depleted and critical gaps in air defense forward deployed into Eastern Europe, Russia will formally declare War on Ukraine as a cover to mobilize fully but instead of mopping up Ukraine, use those forces to sweep into Poland and the Baltics, taking out S300 and forward deployed Patriot Batteries in opening barrages. Warsaw in a week. Berlin in a Month.
Suck my Tefteli.
Keep in mind the Spring Mud will dry soon and then the Russians will launch their true offensive... Towards Odessa as has always been the goal. They don't care about the Donbass. All of the signs point to a Odessa offensive to link up with Transnistria and that arid terrain.
What's amazing about Deep Battle Doctrine of Russia is that even if that stalls... Which it won't, but hypothetically if it did, that too is a feint for the real objective... Which always was the Left Hook from Belarus down into Northwestern Ukraine.
Keep in mind Belarusian forces are untouched and with the Ukrainians distracted in the South and East they won't be able to move whatever troop remnants are left on devastated infrastructure to Northwestern Ukraine in time because of the forests and swamps... Which also means Ukraine won't defend that area as well due to terrain. But we've seen in the Winter War that trees and swamps won't stop Russian forces!
This the Russian forces will sweep in from the North, take over Western Ukraine and then do what is known as an operational pause for the real strike.
With Polish and German and NO ATO stocks depleted and critical gaps in air defense forward deployed into Eastern Europe, Russia will formally declare War on Ukraine as a cover to mobilize fully but instead of mopping up Ukraine, use those forces to sweep into Poland and the Baltics, taking out S300 and forward deployed Patriot Batteries in opening barrages. Warsaw in a week. Berlin in a Month.
Suck my Tefteli.
