China Wuhan Virus Pandemic

This is not going to end well for China, or Asia in general I think. Has anyone heard from the Nork's recently?
Aren't the North Korean borders relatively hard to get through for either side? Depending on how well they quarantine themselves they might come out of it better then some of their neighbors.
 
I’ve heard a case has been reported in Uganda.

It would be very bad if this starts spreading in Africa.

In Europe and the US-people who are infected can be isolated and treated given the effectiveness of state responses.

In Africa there isn’t the same level of resources or state expertise.
 
I’ve heard a case has been reported in Uganda.

It would be very bad if this starts spreading in Africa.

In Europe and the US-people who are infected can be isolated and treated given the effectiveness of state responses.

In Africa there isn’t the same level of resources or state expertise.
Uganda? . That's Bad , millions could die if thats true, since most Africans dont have acces to good medical care.
 
Uganda? . That's Bad , millions could die if thats true, since most Africans dont have acces to good medical care.
Where's that old 'Madagascar/SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING' meme?

Because it seems far more topical than it should at this moment.
 
The mask is hugely important in Asian culture not because it protects you but because it protects others around you if you are infected. It's a public statement that you're doing something to protect the rest of society from the risk of you being infected.
 
Aren't the North Korean borders relatively hard to get through for either side? Depending on how well they quarantine themselves they might come out of it better then some of their neighbors.

NK was one of the first nations to close it's borders over this. Indeed, as ironic as it sounds they may have been the best prepared for this.
 
More I think about it, the more plausible those numbers seem. If that "glitch" showed say 9999999 deaths or some other implausible number, then there'd be no debate. But something about the counts in that brief change numbers seems too plausible with the frequent online rumors from the Chinese social networks trickling in.
For more worst-case guessing, someone linked this screencap from /pol/:
EP9w2YZW4AA1Ucq.png

Pretty unnerving...if the method is sound.

If those numbers are correct, mortality rate would be around 15% of confirmed cases, this means one death out of every 6-7 infected.
 
The mask is hugely important in Asian culture not because it protects you but because it protects others around you if you are infected. It's a public statement that you're doing something to protect the rest of society from the risk of you being infected.
Meanwhile in America, you're looked at as a weirdo who's probably planning on doing something nefarious if you walk around in public wearing one.
 
If those numbers are correct, mortality rate would be around 15% of confirmed cases, this means one death out of every 6-7 infected.

It would fully justify the absolute panic and shutdown the CCP is displaying over this.

It's also possible that the true lethality is around 8-10%, and China is worse because of heavy smoker population + genetic predisposition to get their lungs fucked.

Still dangerously high.
 
Of all the places they had to dock, it would be New Jersey...


I’d rather they quarantine everyone for two weeks to be on the safe side but don’t know if that’s happening.
 
Of all the places they had to dock, it would be New Jersey...


I’d rather they quarantine everyone for two weeks to be on the safe side but don’t know if that’s happening.
God forbid this virus ends up in NYC.
 
That would still only track with the higher end of the Spanish Influenza.

The real damage is not the deaths themselves here. The problem is society.

The threads that hold society together nowadays are more numerous than those of 1918, and much much more numerous than those of the 13th century Europe, and more fragile. There are many more failure points and interdependent systems at work here. We depend way more on out neighboring nation states nowadays than we did in 1918 and 1200's. Even if this disease only has a 2% death rate and only ends up killing 0.5% of the world population the damage it will cause to our long, LONG supply chains and interconnected markets will be huge. China's GDP has already taken a nosedive and as more nations resort to higher levels of quarantine and lock-down you will see that propagate further.

A while back I posted a video of a 2019 study named Event 201, where they tried to predict and simulate a global pandemic. Despite "only" killing 1% of the population this plague led to a loss of between 11% of the global GDP and somewhere along 20% to 40% of the stock markets. ELEVEN FUCKING PERCENT OF THE WORLD GDP! To put that into perspective, the 2007/2008 financial crisis? It shrunk the World GDP by around five. And we all remember how much chaos those 5% caused right?
 
Indeed it’s more the knock on effects than the direct casualties.

30-40% world GDP loss won’t end civilization, but it will cause a great deal of social and political upheaval, far more than what we experience now.
 
I have to agree with Invictus and MelancholicMechanicus here...it’s not so much the deaths that are the potential problem, as cold as that may be. It’s the potential social, economic, and security related unrest that may come from this. We’re already starting to see the effect with China, it’s gets harder to predict if this thing starts getting loose more rapidly elsewhere.
 
The real damage is not the deaths themselves here. The problem is society.

The threads that hold society together nowadays are more numerous than those of 1918, and much much more numerous than those of the 13th century Europe, and more fragile. There are many more failure points and interdependent systems at work here. We depend way more on out neighboring nation states nowadays than we did in 1918 and 1200's. Even if this disease only has a 2% death rate and only ends up killing 0.5% of the world population the damage it will cause to our long, LONG supply chains and interconnected markets will be huge. China's GDP has already taken a nosedive and as more nations resort to higher levels of quarantine and lock-down you will see that propagate further.

A while back I posted a video of a 2019 study named Event 201, where they tried to predict and simulate a global pandemic. Despite "only" killing 1% of the population this plague led to a loss of between 11% of the global GDP and somewhere along 20% to 40% of the stock markets. ELEVEN FUCKING PERCENT OF THE WORLD GDP! To put that into perspective, the 2007/2008 financial crisis? It shrunk the World GDP by around five. And we all remember how much chaos those 5% caused right?
Then you get the political fun that economic collapse causes. After all when people becomepoor, we look for someone to blame.
 

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