History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History

Lord Sovereign

The resident Britbong
One might wonder if "island cultures" such as those of the British and Japanese isles -- being certainly entangled within the civilisational fabric that is mostly formed on the continent, but also by their very definition apart -- have identifiable "reactions" to this situation, in their cultural histories. It could be an interesting thing that just happened to occur in England (and later, by definition, Britain) but it might plausibly be a broader effect that could then also be observed elsewhere.

I've previously noted potential similarities in English and Japanese history:


"(...) my thinking here rests on the rough estimation (which fits, as far as chronology goes, at least) of pre-Roman Britain being vaguely "analogous" to Japan in the Jomon period. This casts the arrival of Roman influence as being akin to the emergence of the Yayoi period in Japan. (It is now generally understood that the Yayoi people were formed around a nexus of migrating groups from the Korean peninsula.)

We might take that further, and liken the influx of ethnic Han migrants during the Kofun period as being at last a bit similar to the Anglo-Saxons? Sure, it's more credible to liken the Kofun period to Sub-Roman Britain, and the Kofun-era migrants didn't shape Japan to the extent that the Anglo-Saxons altered the fate of Britain... but there are at least some similarities. Likewise, the consolidation of the central monarchy during the subsequent Asuka period can be seen as similar to Alfred's consolidation of royal power in England, ending the divisions of the Heptarchy. Indeed, even the introduction of Buddhism in this era can be seen as very much like the introduction of Christianity into Anglo-Saxon England
."

What do you think makes island cultures, or more specifically the ones like Britain and Japan, behave in so different a manner? If anything it strikes me that island cultures, once established, are very long lived things indeed: durable and adaptable.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
What do you think makes island cultures, or more specifically the ones like Britain and Japan, behave in so different a manner? If anything it strikes me that island cultures, once established, are very long lived things indeed: durable and adaptable.

its most likely because you guys are away from the chaos and bloodshed of the continent.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
What do you think makes island cultures, or more specifically the ones like Britain and Japan, behave in so different a manner? If anything it strikes me that island cultures, once established, are very long lived things indeed: durable and adaptable.

I'm not certain that they do, as a rule. Like I said: it's at present merely a hypothesis worth considering. It could also be a uniquely English/British thing.

It's worth looking at potential counterparts: cultures similarly formed on large islands, close enough to the mainland to allow consistent contact, but by their insular nature also able to keep themselves apart to a meaningful degree.

Likewise, we might look to the continent's history to see if the same pattern can't be found there as well. Is the same pattern present elsewhere, perhaps simply less accentuated? Strauss and Howe argue for century-long generational cycles, although they also focus mostly on the Anglo-American cultural history. But the notion is credible enough as a universal: we may observe that there are generational cycles in all cultural histories, and these seem to feed into the larger, more long-term cycles. That has the effect of making the "normal" generational swings far more accentuated during macro-historical crisis periods.

Interesting observation: the most common "base unit" where we see (multiples of) the "saeculum" (100-year four-generation cycles) and the larger civilisational cycles inter-acting seems to be 300 years. For starters, the "dark age" between the fall of one civilisation and the rise of the next is typically around 300 years. But afterwards, when a new civilisation gets founded, its history consists of four distinct periods of c. 300 years each, and then the universal empire that lasts 500 years (always divided by a relatively brief mid-imperial crisis). Making for a total civilisational cycle of some 18 centuries.

Using the most common date for the fall of the Western Empire, we can apply this scheme to ourselves as follows:


AD 476- AD 800: pre-formational "dark age" (fall of Rome to Charlemagne)

AD 800 - AD 1200: formational period, "springtime" (Charlemagne to the Scholastic revolution)

AD 1200 - AD 1500: mature period, prime of vitality, "high summer" (Scholastics to Luther)

AD 1500 - AD 1800: mounting troubles and divisions, "dying summer" (Luther to the Age of Revolutions & Napoleon)

AD 1800 - AD 2100: confusion and escalating violence and extremes, "stormy autumn" (Napoleon to... ???)

AD 2100 - AD 2600: restoration of order, universal empire, "winter"


The years given here are generalised, but you can easily identify what makes these divisions relevant and meaningful. We can immediately see that some things here unquestionably match up with your outline. Further investigation to follow...
 

stevep

Well-known member
In terms of macro history, and Skallagrim you are free to chuckle about this, but I’ve somewhat perceived a pattern with England’s history that is almost entirely separate from the High Culture thesis of Spengler et al.

There appears to be cycles of roughly four hundred years in my country’s history, where a great challenge arises and the system, on the verge of destruction, adapts and becomes stronger. It begins (perhaps. You could jump back another four hundred years before that to the arrival of the Saxons) in the 9th century with the Viking Invasions and the rise of Wessex, where England is truly born.

Four centuries later you have Magna Carta, the Baronial Revolts, William the Marshal, and Edward I, who address the grievances of the crown’s subjects whilst crushing the rebellious barons and cementing royal power.

Four hundred years after that, you have the car crash that is the 17th century and the Stuart dynasty; the Civil War, Restoration, and Glorious Revolution, where I think our political system finishes formulating itself.

And what’s seventeen plus four?

Twenty-one.

In this epoch of mass immigration, ruinously expensive social programs, and out of touch government and society crippled by faulty dogma, England is about to hit its next massive, earth shaking, upheaval. Let’s hope we don’t have the seventeenth century all over again, because ending up under Olly Cromwell two: Electric Boogaloo’s boot does not sound desirable.

I know, it isn’t neat, it is a shower thought after all. But history certainly seems to rhyme.

I doubt and hope as a Brit it doesn't get that bad. However something dramatic really needs to happen to remove the Tory party, or at least drastically reducing their insanity since the late 70's. [I think the former is frankly more likely as the level of corruption and nepotism inside the current system is very deeply embedded.]

I should point out that the faulty dogma is not just the stupidity and corruption since 1979 but also was the dominant factor in the period ~1850-1930, much to the devastation of the country and its interests. We could have been much better off as a nation and people if this had been realised as crippling and reversed for good in say the 1880-90s.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
I doubt and hope as a Brit it doesn't get that bad. However something dramatic really needs to happen to remove the Tory party, or at least drastically reducing their insanity since the late 70's. [I think the former is frankly more likely as the level of corruption and nepotism inside the current system is very deeply embedded.]

I should point out that the faulty dogma is not just the stupidity and corruption since 1979 but also was the dominant factor in the period ~1850-1930, much to the devastation of the country and its interests. We could have been much better off as a nation and people if this had been realised as crippling and reversed for good in say the 1880-90s.

You're painting your own political biases onto the matter. That isn't remotely helpful when it comes to macro-historical analysis.

When it comes to the "turning" in Britain, assume that the universal rules of these things hold true. Party nomenclature is meaningless. The divide of our time is establishment versus populism. To the detached observer, neither side is even close to saintly.

The insanity, corruption and nepotism you reference are systemic. Your bias leads you to fixate on the Tories, but that's dead end-- I think you'll see that, if you consider the matter impartially. After all, only a complete imbecile (one frankly not even worth the rope one might use to hang him) would think Blair better than Cameron (or Corbyn better than Johnson, for that matter). These... figures... are all symptomatic of the same issue. All representatives of the same blighted system.

Of course, the alternative is going to look suspiciously like a next-gen Nigel Farage, with better optics and more radical ideas (including embracing some pretty lefty socio-economic ones). We see that trend across the West with the populist movement. Culturally hard-right, very nativist, anti-immigration, economically protectionist (with even some tendencies towards autarkic plans), against the more elitist forms of social democracy (e.g. subidies for posh stuff) but vocally in favour of redistribution towards the blue collar workers.

Probably not quite the future you're hoping for. Nevertheless the one we're all going to get. Naturally, this isn't going to solve the problems either, but if you take the above, add a few mass executions and remove all semblance of democracy, you have the basic shape of Caesarism.


but also was the dominant factor in the period ~1850-1930, much to the devastation of the country and its interests

P.S. -- Your dogged insistence on pretending that the very heyday of British supremacy was somehow bad for Britain continues to baffle me. It's as if you live in a bizarro world, where everything's reversed!
 
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Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
Ok first of all cities have always been "Great places for trade, horrible places to live in" there have been writings saying that all the way back to biblical times, if people don't realize that by now I don't know what to tell them. There is also diseases like Plague, Dysentery, and even pneumonia all of which we killers back then that most people don't really think about much now due to antibiotics and water treatment plants. Also, look at deaths related to birth difficulties (Something so common it's the reason why life expectancy was considered so low.)

and I'm sorry. but if war does come to my town. I have a wheelchair and a car,. I can flee. The same scenario happens in the middle ages? I'm doomed. So pardon me if I don't look at the days of yore with the sort of romanticism others do. Heaven for them would be Punishment for me unless I had a fundamentally different body.
As I said: there are benefits of modern society, but the nature of modernity means that these benefits are being heavily diluted.

Plague? It was eradicated mainly due to better hygiene. Which is not something that is inherently unique to modernity:
800px-Bubonic_plague_map_2.png


See the gray area? You don't need antibiotics when you have good hygiene. Also, Black Plague was literally a case study in dangers of global trade.

Also, it is not deaths due to birth difficulties that pushed average life expectancy so low, but rather deaths in infancy. Which included both the birth and few years afterwards.

Demografska_tranzicija.jpg


If war comes, it will not come just to your town. So no, you will most likely not be able to flee. And in fact, due to changing nature of war in modern society, you may not even realize that war has come to your town until somebody has broken into your house and murdered you.
 

stevep

Well-known member
You're painting your own political biases onto the matter. That isn't remotely helpful when it comes to macro-historical analysis.

When it comes to the "turning" in Britain, assume that the universal rules of these things hold true. Party nomenclature is meaningless. The divide of our time is establishment versus populism. To the detached observer, neither side is even close to saintly.

The insanity, corruption and nepotism you reference are systemic. Your bias leads you to fixate on the Tories, but that's dead end-- I think you'll see that, if you consider the matter impartially. After all, only a complete imbecile (one frankly not even worth the rope one might use to hang him) would think Blair better than Cameron (or Corbyn better than Johnson, for that matter). These... figures... are all symptomatic of the same issue. All representatives of the same blighted system.

Of course, the alternative is going to look suspiciously like a next-gen Nigel Farage, with better optics and more radical ideas (including embracing some pretty lefty socio-economic ones). We see that trend across the West with the populist movement. Culturally hard-right, very nativist, anti-immigration, economically protectionist (with even some tendencies towards autarkic plans), against the more elitist forms of social democracy (e.g. subidies for posh stuff) but vocally in favour of redistribution towards the blue collar workers.

Probably not quite the future you're hoping for. Nevertheless the one we're all going to get. Naturally, this isn't going to solve the problems either, but if you take the above, add a few mass executions and remove all semblance of democracy, you have the basic shape of Caesarism.




P.S. -- Your dogged insistence on pretending that the very heyday of British supremacy was somehow bad for Britain continues to baffle me. It's as if you live in a bizarro world, where everything's reversed!

Your applying your own bias rather than knowledge of the facts on the ground.

a) The comparison isn't for an extremely corrupt and parasitical Tory party with Blair - who was basically a Thatcher-lite - or Corbyn - who was very hard left. Its more with pre-1979 leaders on either side of the divide, the Health's and Callaghan's and their predecessors. There was no need for Britain, relatively much weaker than in its 1850 version to return to a version of the same dead end other than personal greed and short sighted interests.

b) In ~1850 Britain was the most advanced economy in the world. Inertia keep things going well for a while but the stupidity of the government regime, especially under the Liberal Party for the 1st ~60 years steadily undermined this. Without government support - such as tariffs or realistic education systems - as in most other developed states Britain increasingly dropped behind. It wasn't in the interest of owners or the fiscal section to invest in British industries in the face of subsidized competition. A classic example was the steel industry where faced with such an unbalanced playing field existing stock - in which capital had already been invested - was run into the ground and the workforce squeezed as much as possible rather than big spending on new more modern and efficient plants.

Lets be clear. There was no way Britain would maintain a position as workshop of the world because as Disraeli said and history showed the rest of the world wouldn't allow it. However it could have had a much stronger position with a more rational and responsible policy. Larger states such as the US and a unified and centralised German were always likely to overtake us in absolute terms but we could have had a qualitative equivalence per capita with them by say 1914.

You live in a strange world if you think Britain's economic and technological position in 1914-30 relative to its primary rivals was better than it was in 1950. ;)
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
Your applying your own bias rather than knowledge of the facts on the ground.

Your irrational hate-boner against sensible economic policies doesn't consitute "facts on the ground", nor does a decent understanding of economics constitute a bias (merely an advantage).


a) The comparison isn't for an extremely corrupt and parasitical Tory party with Blair - who was basically a Thatcher-lite - or Corbyn - who was very hard left. Its more with pre-1979 leaders on either side of the divide, the Health's and Callaghan's and their predecessors. There was no need for Britain, relatively much weaker than in its 1850 version to return to a version of the same dead end other than personal greed and short sighted interests.

Imagine thinking Tony Blair is "Thatcher lite". That's like thinking Bill Clinton is "Reagan lite". A position usually only embraced by the crowds at international socialist gatherings. In other words: not a view entertained by functioning humans.

But more importantly: trying to pretend that Thatcher or Blair or anyone in this whole period should be compared to pre-1979 figures relies wholly on (guess what) ignoring the facts on the ground. Such as the fact that post-war policies (quasi-communist ones, for a while) had driven Britain to the edge of ruin-- something that had caused Thatcher to emerge in the first place. (Of course, all the economic illiterates blamed everything wrong in the '80s on her, when the reality is that she was too moderate in addressing the underlying problems. Her policies were painful, but in the way that cutting away gangrenous flesh is painful. The problem is that she was actually a 'soft doctor', who balked at cutting away enough. So the flesh-rot remained; and remains to this day.)

All in all, you show a tendency to idolise the idiots who cause the festering wounds, and to then heap all blame on the surgeons who cut away the diseased flesh. That's never going to be a helpful method. Perhaps you would fit in with the coming "Caesarists", though. Probably too brutal and bloody for your liking, but as I outlined, I'm pretty sure our civilisation's specific iteration of that faction will hate free trade and the mercantile spirit-- almost as much as you do.

(Thankfully, every Caesar is followed by an Augustus; the most committed surgeon of them all, who doesn't stop cutting until all the rot is gone.)


b) In ~1850 Britain was the most advanced economy in the world. Inertia keep things going well for a while but the stupidity of the government regime, especially under the Liberal Party for the 1st ~60 years steadily undermined this. Without government support - such as tariffs or realistic education systems - as in most other developed states Britain increasingly dropped behind. It wasn't in the interest of owners or the fiscal section to invest in British industries in the face of subsidized competition. A classic example was the steel industry where faced with such an unbalanced playing field existing stock - in which capital had already been invested - was run into the ground and the workforce squeezed as much as possible rather than big spending on new more modern and efficient plants.

Lets be clear. There was no way Britain would maintain a position as workshop of the world because as Disraeli said and history showed the rest of the world wouldn't allow it. However it could have had a much stronger position with a more rational and responsible policy. Larger states such as the US and a unified and centralised German were always likely to overtake us in absolute terms but we could have had a qualitative equivalence per capita with them by say 1914.

You describe the empire that arose out of the chaos of the Napoleonic wars and boomed economically. The empire that conquered a quarter of the planet. The political, economic and military superpower of the age. The naval leader so well-positioned that it could out-produce Germany by three-to-one without major upset, while the German effort ruined the German economy. You decribe all this, and you imagine that it constitutes a failure.

I know that you hate free trade, because you seem to imagine it's the devil and that we need the government to save us-- but do step beyond this impulse for a moment, and grasp that the reason Britain so utterly outcompeted France was that Britain swerved towards free trade, whereas France was stuck in doomed mercantillism. When the Laki eruption destroyed crops across Europe, Britain was well-positioned to import food from elsewhere. France faced shortages, and then famine. That's why there was a French revolution, not an English one.

(And later on, Britain still opted for free trade, whereas Napoleon dicked about with his continental system. I wonder how that went for him...?)

You don't even realise this, because you have to blame everything on the liberals, but the truth is: they only consolidated a pre-existing trend. A glorious trend. A bountiful trend. One that brought prosperity and stability, and allowed Britain to shove all rivals off the map. The so-called Great Game? Russia lost that. The French? Turned into little bitches after Fashoda.

The policies that you imagine were so terrible were the ones that allowed Britain to basically win the nineteenth century.

And you know what--

You live in a strange world if you think Britain's economic and technological position in 1914-30 relative to its primary rivals was better than it was in 1950. ;)

--Britain could have won the twentieth century, too! By doing the opposite of what you think. Because what you handily ignore in your screed is that the period starting with 1914 had some pretty important stuff happen. And in the course of that, Britain butchered its young male population for no good reason, and pissed away its own empire. They could have kept it. They could have kept it all. Everything that had been built up by the people you thanklessly dismiss. Everything that was then torn down by people you no doubt idolise.

The Americans have some reason to be grateful, though. You ideologically descend from a long line of self-immolators, whose previous generations have ensured that when the universal empire does come, it'll be an American empire. Had it not been for the works of your fore-bears, it could have been very different.

And here you are among the throngs of the Fellachen that populate the ruins of a better world, shouting at the statues of the men who once built that world, and blaming all your woes on them-- not even knowing (or simply not wishing to know) that all the ruination that came to it was wrought by your ideological kinsmen.




...The bottom line, however, is that none of your partisan bias matters. The fact that you're fixated on "those evil Tories!!!" only illustrates how irrelevant your position is in the greater scheme of things. As I explained: the struggle of the age is one of the establishment (for which the main political parties are merely different "front-offices") and a populist movement thriving on mass discontent (which is by definition oriented against the elites of all established parties, and if it co-opts one of them, it'll be by evicting its elite wholly).

The populists (or 'radicals', if you will) win that struggle every time. And in the event, we'll see them oppose globalism and enact protectionism. You might even like them, economically. Although I get the impression that you're not one for public executions, so I think you won't like the through-line of their revanchist politics as a whole. But not to fret, because no matter how far it takes things, Caesarism never lasts, either. It's not the answer to Modernity; merely its last howl.

The true answer comes thereafter, with the Principate. Which, in the case of the West, will feature all the things I get the impression you might dislike. Traditionalist mores, a tendency towards religious universalism, abolition of democracy (and of the appeal to the masses altogether), considerable socio-cultural stratification, very small and primarily local government, an intense hatred of fiduciary currency and corresponding dedication to a gold standard, and a return to unfettered trade (with most of the world, at least). That's the nature of the Principate. It'll last for a good few centuries, and even millennia later, it'll be seen as the golden age of our civilisation.

I've mentioned this before, but when Augustus was an old man, and close to his dying day, he travelled by ship along the coast, on his way South. And on the journey, his ship was passed by a merchant vessel from Alexandria. When the merchants saw whose ship it was, they greeted him almost as worshippers. This was not needed by any means; but here was the man who had made the sea safe by eradicating piracy; who had lowered their taxes and fostered commerce by his decrees. And they called out to him: "Through you we live, through you we sail, through you we enjoy our freedom and prosperity!"

That's the sort of future I hope we too will enjoy. It is made through enacting the precise policies that you seemingly imagine to be detrimental. But they have been the policies of the wise for thousands of years, and they always will be. No matter how many generations of fools seek to ruin the work of the wise, we find that good sense always returns in the end.
 
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Lord Sovereign

The resident Britbong
You describe the empire that arose out of the chaos of the Napoleonic wars and boomed economically. The empire that conquered a quarter of the planet. The political, economic and military superpower of the age. The naval leader so well-positioned that it could out-produce Germany by three-to-one without major upset, while the German effort ruined the German economy.

Please stop, I can only get so erect. And I can't see my Britain boner through anguished tears over what we lost.

Worst thing is, even after the World Wars Britain could have saved more than a few scraps of empire. We just put a socialist in charge at the worst possible moment. 1945 should have been the year some humourless book balancing aristocrat was put in charge, not that (admittedly well meaning) catastrophe Attlee.

I've spent years trying to think up of ways Britain or even just England can arrest its decline. But even if it could be done, the golden age is still behind us; all that power and glory utterly squandered.

Edit: but entering a "silver age"...now that is another matter...

Edit 2: Still, when I look upon London today, former Imperial capital of the greatest empire in human history, once foremost of all mankind's cities, this piece of music comes to mind.
 
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Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Please stop, I can only get so erect. And I can't see my Britain boner through anguished tears over what we lost.

Worst thing is, even after the World Wars Britain could have saved more than a few scraps of empire. We just put a socialist in charge at the worst possible moment. 1945 should have been the year some humourless book balancing aristocrat was put in charge, not that (admittedly well meaning) catastrophe Attlee.

I've spent years trying to think up of ways Britain or even just England can arrest its decline. But even if it could be done, the golden age is still behind us; all that power and glory utterly squandered.

Edit: but entering a "silver age"...now that is another matter...

Sorry you guys had to go through that. Don’t really like colonialism, per se, but as far as sheer achievement goes, I can certainly respect the exceptional talent you Brits had when it came to empire-building and bringing even the venerable Eastern civilizations (read: China and India) to heel.

That said, Fate still dealt you a better hand than it did Russia, which (as @Skallagrim has regularly posited) exhausted itself via seven decades of Communist rule and is now a dying, but heavily armed kleptocracy built on one-man rule that, in theory, could end at practically any time now. The next few steps in that process will come quite soon, I fear.
 

stevep

Well-known member
Your irrational hate-boner against sensible economic policies doesn't consitute "facts on the ground", nor does a decent understanding of economics constitute a bias (merely an advantage).




Imagine thinking Tony Blair is "Thatcher lite". That's like thinking Bill Clinton is "Reagan lite". A position usually only embraced by the crowds at international socialist gatherings. In other words: not a view entertained by functioning humans.

But more importantly: trying to pretend that Thatcher or Blair or anyone in this whole period should be compared to pre-1979 figures relies wholly on (guess what) ignoring the facts on the ground. Such as the fact that post-war policies (quasi-communist ones, for a while) had driven Britain to the edge of ruin-- something that had caused Thatcher to emerge in the first place. (Of course, all the economic illiterates blamed everything wrong in the '80s on her, when the reality is that she was too moderate in addressing the underlying problems. Her policies were painful, but in the way that cutting away gangrenous flesh is painful. The problem is that she was actually a 'soft doctor', who balked at cutting away enough. So the flesh-rot remained; and remains to this day.)

All in all, you show a tendency to idolise the idiots who cause the festering wounds, and to then heap all blame on the surgeons who cut away the diseased flesh. That's never going to be a helpful method. Perhaps you would fit in with the coming "Caesarists", though. Probably too brutal and bloody for your liking, but as I outlined, I'm pretty sure our civilisation's specific iteration of that faction will hate free trade and the mercantile spirit-- almost as much as you do.

(Thankfully, every Caesar is followed by an Augustus; the most committed surgeon of them all, who doesn't stop cutting until all the rot is gone.)




You describe the empire that arose out of the chaos of the Napoleonic wars and boomed economically. The empire that conquered a quarter of the planet. The political, economic and military superpower of the age. The naval leader so well-positioned that it could out-produce Germany by three-to-one without major upset, while the German effort ruined the German economy. You decribe all this, and you imagine that it constitutes a failure.

I know that you hate free trade, because you seem to imagine it's the devil and that we need the government to save us-- but do step beyond this impulse for a moment, and grasp that the reason Britain so utterly outcompeted France was that Britain swerved towards free trade, whereas France was stuck in doomed mercantillism. When the Laki eruption destroyed crops across Europe, Britain was well-positioned to import food from elsewhere. France faced shortages, and then famine. That's why there was a French revolution, not an English one.

(And later on, Britain still opted for free trade, whereas Napoleon dicked about with his continental system. I wonder how that went for him...?)

You don't even realise this, because you have to blame everything on the liberals, but the truth is: they only consolidated a pre-existing trend. A glorious trend. A bountiful trend. One that brought prosperity and stability, and allowed Britain to shove all rivals off the map. The so-called Great Game? Russia lost that. The French? Turned into little bitches after Fashoda.

The policies that you imagine were so terrible were the ones that allowed Britain to basically win the nineteenth century.

And you know what--



--Britain could have won the twentieth century, too! By doing the opposite of what you think. Because what you handily ignore in your screed is that the period starting with 1914 had some pretty important stuff happen. And in the course of that, Britain butchered its young male population for no good reason, and pissed away its own empire. They could have kept it. They could have kept it all. Everything that had been built up by the people you thanklessly dismiss. Everything that was then torn down by people you no doubt idolise.

The Americans have some reason to be grateful, though. You ideologically descend from a long line of self-immolators, whose previous generations have ensured that when the universal empire does come, it'll be an American empire. Had it not been for the works of your fore-bears, it could have been very different.

And here you are among the throngs of the Fellachen that populate the ruins of a better world, shouting at the statues of the men who once built that world, and blaming all your woes on them-- not even knowing (or simply not wishing to know) that all the ruination that came to it was wrought by your ideological kinsmen.




...The bottom line, however, is that none of your partisan bias matters. The fact that you're fixated on "those evil Tories!!!" only illustrates how irrelevant your position is in the greater scheme of things. As I explained: the struggle of the age is one of the establishment (for which the main political parties are merely different "front-offices") and a populist movement thriving on mass discontent (which is by definition oriented against the elites of all established parties, and if it co-opts one of them, it'll be by evicting its elite wholly).

The populists (or 'radicals', if you will) win that struggle every time. And in the event, we'll see them oppose globalism and enact protectionism. You might even like them, economically. Although I get the impression that you're not one for public executions, so I think you won't like the through-line of their revanchist politics as a whole. But not to fret, because no matter how far it takes things, Caesarism never lasts, either. It's not the answer to Modernity; merely its last howl.

The true answer comes thereafter, with the Principate. Which, in the case of the West, will feature all the things I get the impression you might dislike. Traditionalist mores, a tendency towards religious universalism, abolition of democracy (and of the appeal to the masses altogether), considerable socio-cultural stratification, very small and primarily local government, an intense hatred of fiduciary currency and corresponding dedication to a gold standard, and a return to unfettered trade (with most of the world, at least). That's the nature of the Principate. It'll last for a good few centuries, and even millennia later, it'll be seen as the golden age of our civilisation.

I've mentioned this before, but when Augustus was an old man, and close to his dying day, he travelled by ship along the coast, on his way South. And on the journey, his ship was passed by a merchant vessel from Alexandria. When the merchants saw whose ship it was, they greeted him almost as worshippers. This was not needed by any means; but here was the man who had made the sea safe by eradicating piracy; who had lowered their taxes and fostered commerce by his decrees. And they called out to him: "Through you we live, through you we sail, through you we enjoy our freedom and prosperity!"

That's the sort of future I hope we too will enjoy. It is made through enacting the precise policies that you seemingly imagine to be detrimental. But they have been the policies of the wise for thousands of years, and they always will be. No matter how many generations of fools seek to ruin the work of the wise, we find that good sense always returns in the end.

That you think the stupidity that crippled Britain after 1850 could have 'won' Britain the 20thC when it clearly damaged us greatly shows how incapable of serious understanding you are. Just look at how dependent so much of British industry and economy was dependent on industrial products from Germany and the US because of the failure of the policies you support! At how poorly much of the population of Britain was educated compared to that of its primary rivals. Try and consider some facts rather than dogma.

I don't object to free trade in a system where its practiced by all. I do object to clinging to it and even worse the laissez faire stupidity in a world where opposing policies make them disastrous is a bloody idiotic error. I refer to the "evil Tories" as you put it because the current policies of the party are both morally redundant and have been shown to be a fucking disaster, other than for a small oligarchy of the sort you favour. As I made clear in my last post party is irrelevant to me compared to policies.

Unlike you I both lived through and understand what happened in the 1970-current period in Britain. Your delusions unfortunately are held by too many idiots and fanatics in this country which helps keep the current vermin in power. That you prefer extremism over responsible government shows how far apart we are. Your more of a Ceasrist supporter than I am by a long way. I agree that Augustus brought much needed peace and stability, after his own wars for the throne but it was largely by ignoring the egomania you value so highly in powerful figures.

Basically your saying your an idiot who puts dogma ahead of reality. You prefer to rely on your own desires rather than what actually happened.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
That you think the stupidity that crippled Britain after 1850 could have 'won' Britain the 20thC when it clearly damaged us greatly shows how incapable of serious understanding you are. Just look at how dependent so much of British industry and economy was dependent on industrial products from Germany and the US because of the failure of the policies you support! At how poorly much of the population of Britain was educated compared to that of its primary rivals. Try and consider some facts rather than dogma.

I don't object to free trade in a system where its practiced by all. I do object to clinging to it and even worse the laissez faire stupidity in a world where opposing policies make them disastrous is a bloody idiotic error. I refer to the "evil Tories" as you put it because the current policies of the party are both morally redundant and have been shown to be a fucking disaster, other than for a small oligarchy of the sort you favour. As I made clear in my last post party is irrelevant to me compared to policies.

Unlike you I both lived through and understand what happened in the 1970-current period in Britain. Your delusions unfortunately are held by too many idiots and fanatics in this country which helps keep the current vermin in power. That you prefer extremism over responsible government shows how far apart we are. Your more of a Ceasrist supporter than I am by a long way. I agree that Augustus brought much needed peace and stability, after his own wars for the throne but it was largely by ignoring the egomania you value so highly in powerful figures.

Basically your saying your an idiot who puts dogma ahead of reality. You prefer to rely on your own desires rather than what actually happened.

Your failure to engage with any argument demonstrates how biased and blinded you are. Quite regrettable, since you seem capable of fairly decent arguments when you're not compromised by knee-jerk impulses caused by ideological blinkers. Unfortunately, here, all you can post is an elaborate version of "I'm right because I'm right and you're a doo-doo head because you say things I don't like, so there!"

For someone who claims to have lived through so much, you behave suspiciously like a college-aged socialist. Might be cause for some reflection.

Anyway, you've neglected to respond to any fact, you just repeat the same nonsense claims, and you're clearly unwilling to talk like a serious person. This is evidenced by your knee-jerk reaction to the mention of the Tories ("morally redundant and have been shown to be a fucking disaster"), at which juncture you deliberately ignore the wider point: that both parties are symptomatic of systemic failure. You don't want to see that, because you prefer hating the Conservatives specifically, and you don't want facts getting in your way.

Your bias is further shown when you consistently equate every faction that ever supported free trade as if they're interchangable; you just lump them all together as homogeneous advocates of "laissez faire stupidity". (The phrasing shows your bias again.) Obviously, you're ignoring countless relevant factors and differences, but you step past that because you want them to all be the same. Of course, you also think they're all elitists, when the 19th century liberals were in reality the party of the common man-- as were their American counterparts (the Bourbon Democrats). But to you, everyone who loves free trade is "for a small oligarchy". You even accuse me of this (apparently having missed the many times I've called for the removal -- and if needed outright destruction -- of the current establishment cadre).

You also refuse to note that Britain out-competed mercantillist France and staved off disaster in this way, but I get that you wouldn't want to talk about that. It undermines your thesis that free trade will kill you if it is not "practiced by all". (Historical evidence notwithstanding.) Speaking of that: you claim that you "don't object to free trade in a system where its practiced by all", but that's a shameless deception, since you consistently disparage free trade as "laissez faire stupidity". Which tells me that you're just lying through your teeth, and will always find some reason why free trade is supposedly bad.

In other words: you dodge every topic that disproves your bias, and you cling to your dogmas because you consider your opinions and -- indeed -- your feelings about these things more important than the truth. As I said: that's never going to get results. It's only going to make you look dumber than you ought to be.
 
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Lord Sovereign

The resident Britbong
I mean, I’m not entirely a free marketeer and free trader myself (indeed I’d describe myself as High Tory on the matter) on account of not wanting native industries be crushed by cheap, semi-slave labour from overseas, but even I know that without competition the economy goes to shit (cough, Post War Consensus, cough).

Edit: Also, on an entirely unrelated note, if one wanted to prevent a country from being absorbed by the universal empire, and indeed restore it to some of its former power, how would one go about that, Skallagrim?

Just a thought experiment, nothing serious… (come off it, as a Dutchman you’ve probably asked that question yourself from time to time) ;D
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
I mean, I’m not entirely a free marketeer and free trader myself (indeed I’d describe myself as High Tory on the matter) on account of not wanting native industries be crushed by cheap, semi-slave labour from overseas, but even I know that without competition the economy goes to shit (cough, Post War Consensus, cough).

My own tendencies are towards "the less government, the better" -- but I recognise that this is precisely the 'macro' view of things, which isn't always the pimary concern for all involved. Regardless of anyone's short- or mid-term interests, though, I know for a fact (because it's evinced by all human history) that an increase in government size and governmental inteference is always a bad thing for us all in the long term. There are two main reasons for this:

1) Allocation. Central planners always fail, because individuals and groups of individuals move in all directions and all have highly specific (and ever-shifting) needs and desires. This means that even a super-computer that gets fed all the data (itself impossible, to be clear!) would be wrong, because it can't possibly account for the evolving reality on the ground. The best people to allocate means most effectively are the people themselves. So, the overall best economic system is true, complete laissez-faire. It avoids large mistakes by planners; all its mistakes are small, often involving only the people making those mistakes.

2) "Nothing closer to immortal life than a temporary government programme." Even if a specific form of government inteference is justified and possibly even wise under the circumstances, it will invariably outlive its usefulness and cause more harm than the problem it was meant to solve. Steve references protectionism being good if the other side isn't "playing fair", which is true... but the protectionist measures are for some reason never abolished after you've won the resulting trade war. Government doesn't shrink itself back down to size. On the contrary: it wants ever more power.

For these reasons, I favour small government and oppose all schemes to increase government power. That, of course, being entirely supplementary to my moral conviction that making superfluous rules to boss people around, and taking money from people without their explicit and individually given consent is simply wrong. (But that's what makes me a sort of anarchist on ethical grounds, besides being a 'mere' critic of government on practical grounds.)

None of this, of course, implies that I don't see the problems that tend to invite all sorts of government intervention. Nor that I consider such interventions to always be (in a practical manner) ill-conceived on their own terms. But I find that then we always arrive at point (2), outlined above. (There's a reason why 'Caesarism', the last phase of Modernity, in which the populists/radicals attempt to use the ballooned government apparatus for their purposes, never actually succeeds. And for the same reason, an Augustus arrives thereafter, and abandons the dogmas of Modernity entirely... and in doing so, does succeed.)



Not living in a perfect world, and being well aware of it, I would give this practical advice to the makers of policy (in any age):

At least keep government as small as can be managed, and chiefly keep its operations as local as possible. Minimise the number of laws and regulations, while also keeping them as brief as possible (limited to a clearly defined single subject each). Reduce the burden of taxation, and resist the impulse to 'redistribute' (because the people who've earned the money know better how to allocate it than you possibly could). Keep the currency strong, and fully backed by specie (preferably gold). Avoid public debt, and if it cannot be avoided, ensure that it must by law be paid off within a legally limited number of years. Strive for unfettered trade with all partners that would wish the same. If others would wage a trade war against you, explicitly base your policies on reciprocity, so that your barriers cannot be continued in the event that they abolish theirs. Always hope and strive for normal, free economic relations-- because those are ultimately the healthiest.

For those who make policy in the age of the universal empire, I would add that this empire -- effectively forming a self-sustaining 'world system' -- must be a single free market, without internal economic restrictions. Achieving that is almost invariably the key to the success of an "Augustus". And the perpetuation of that state of affairs fuels the triumphs of a Principate.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Edit: Also, on an entirely unrelated note, if one wanted to prevent a country from being absorbed by the universal empire, and indeed restore it to some of its former power, how would one go about that, Skallagrim?

Just a thought experiment, nothing serious… (come off it, as a Dutchman you’ve probably asked that question yourself from time to time) ;D

It depends on positioning. Someone on the geographical edges of a "World-system" can easily take on the role of a peripheral ally. Even vassalising such a state may often be more trouble than it's worth, and in many cases, even a rival empire will be too far distant to exert control. On might easily see Chile, Argentina or Brazil (for instance) positioning themselves in such a manner, relative to the American super-power, a century or more from now.

I sense, of course, that this doesn't answer your question. A nation that is not peripheral, but may in fact be quite central -- both geographically within the Western cultural area and in its historical role as a direct progenitor of America, for instance -- would have to take different steps. These might involve gaining the special status given to an "early adopter". This would not be so much avoiding absorbtion as it would be joining up voluntarily. Doing the latter ensures that it happens on your terms, and if you're (among) the first to do it, you can do it via a treaty (or similar instrument of concordance) that ensures certain privileges.

Considering this, it hasn't escaped my notice that a certain country has become the first to depart from the European Union (a failing edifice). Although the politicians of this country promptly squandered an opportunity to go for hard Brexit and opt for a bilateral trade-and-more alliance with the USA, it is not too late to still swerve in that direction. Since the next Eurozone crisis is looming, and Britain has extricated itself in a timely manner, those now saying that Brexit was a mistake will soon learn that it was the wisest possible decision. As the EU continues to screw itself over, there are ample opportunities for Britain (and Canada, and Australia, and New Zealand) to form closer ties with the United States.

If this can be shaped as a common treaty where all bring something to the table, then that pact will form the nucleus of the universal empire. And since such vaunted treaties are subsequently revered and almost hallowed in the hagiographies that empires write about themselves, any special privileges woven into the document will be pretty damn safe for ages to come. It's not the sort of thing an emperor will abolish on a whim.
 
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ATP

Well-known member
It's only logical. Where could someone meeting the following requirements be found:
  • Able to incite others to political violence without being caught and punished for it. That's basically half the glowie day job.
  • Knows the identities of massive numbers of potential dissidents, from the surveillance state's own records.
  • May have useful blackmail material on authority figures.
  • Has firsthand experience overthrowing goverments. The other half of glowie work.
  • Is a sociopathic bastard with demonstrably no concern for their oath to serve the country's inhabitants and obey the law.
In other words, the glowies.

Plus, even if I'm wrong, I know someone's reading this and if their boss knew this, it might make them less trustworthy.

Not really seeing it. AI is getting scarily good, scarily fast. There's no logical reason why any computational process possible in a processor made from biology couldn't eventually be replicated in a mechanical medium. At worst, build a system emulator by simulating all the electrical and biochemical interactions in an organic brain. I'm not sure how long it'll be until we have AGI, but I see no reason why it shouldn't be possible to eventually build it.

Plus, it isn't my opinion on the matter that counts. Apparently the oligarchs think it's possible and are acting accordingly and even if they turn out to be wrong and their automation-cracy collapses, we're still fucked.
They certainly reading us - and certainly look at their security dudes with war eyes.
And those security dudes eventually must try putch or vanish.


Current AI isn't getting scarily good at all-- at least, not at the things you suggested it would be used for. Current AI, as I mentioned, isn't AI at all. It's missing the 'I'. It's a simulacrum that has no consciousness. It can't produce consistency due to that. So, for instance, it can answer questions based on a data-set. But have you seen what happens when you ask it to write a single scene for a film script? Most of the time, total nonsense comes out. If you try for anything long-form, it just spews out gibberish, because it has no mind and cannot produce a consistent narrative.

Likewise for visual media. It can produce images based on data-sets, but these often have utterly weird nonsense elements. As in: a picture of a mediaeval town has things that look like buildings at first glance, but which make no geometric sense. Because the damn thing doesn't even understand what a building is. And again, forget about consistency. Ask it to produce a series of images of a person walking down a street, from different perspectives. It won't produce the same street twice... nor the same person!

These limitations apply to all processes. Current "AI" isn't capable of thinking, and nothing about it could possibly allow it to start thinking. It's about as likely to become true AI as the infamous goat simulator is to become a real flesh-and-blood goat. That's why I'm pointing out that for the purposes you mentioned, current "AI" is simply a dead end.




You're reacting as if I claimed that true AI is always impossible, but that's not what I said.

I wrote: "I have serious doubts about AI having that much of an effect within the next few decades. (...) To make real AI, all current developments are useless, and you'd need to start over from the beginning."

And then you go on to describe... how we could start over from the beginning.

You propose and interesting method of actually achieving true AI. It could plausibly work, but I still don't see realistic perspectives for it to become relevant within the next few decades. Sequencing the human genome took decades. Simulating all the electrical and biochemical interactions in an organic brain is a considerably more daunting task. And that's assuming that doing so would yield results (as opposed to, say, revealing that there's more to consciousness than we've grasped thus far, and that there are additional steps required that we haven't even imagined yet.)




If they try it and it fails, that's no worse than any other alternative. Look at Chile, where Allende already tried to go down this road. (He wanted to solve the calculation problem by feeding all data into a super-computer. It didn't work out.) If we go down a path like that, and get a super-Pinochet who rids us of the morons who put their faith in "AI" to save their retarded socio-economic system, I'll consider that a pretty happy outcome. Far better than some other alternatives.

I hope you are right.It would be not nice to live in 1984.If i must choose before that and Mad max,i always choose Mad Max.
Even if i die there.
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
They certainly reading us - and certainly look at their security dudes with war eyes.
And those security dudes eventually must try putch or vanish.
Bad news is that the enemy is spying on all our communications, good news, this opens a hilarious avenue of attack. Turn said communications into infohazards such that having listened to them makes spies ideologically suspect to their bosses and both bosses and spies know this.
comment section on cracked.com article 'six real world spy gadgets straight out of the movies' said:
Bah, listening devices like #2 probably helped lead to the downfall of communism. What are the monitoring techs hearing?



(Hi Bob, how's the kids?)

(Great! They haven't died of COLD and STARVATION or anything!)



*tech shifts in his cold, metal chair*



(Hey Betty, what's for lunch?)

(Well, the embassy cafeteria is serving chicken-fried STEAK, but I think I'm going to stick with my sandwich. It's full of MEAT and CHEESE and BREAD.)



*tech starts to drool uncontrollably*



(Oh Mike, did you hear anything about the game?)

(Yeah, the Cubs lost again, darn it. And they weren't TORTURED and SHOT for failure or anything!)



*defects*
The Dark Forest by Cixin Liu said:
“Well, I wonder—and this is just speculation, so don’t laugh—I wonder whether we could find a form of communication that only humans can comprehend, but which the sophons never will.That way, humanity can be free of sophon monitoring.”

Luo Ji looked at her for several seconds, and then stared at the Mona Lisa. “I get what you mean. Her smile is something that the sophons and the Trisolarans will never understand.”

“That’s right. Human expressions, and people’s eyes in particular, are subtle and complex. A gaze or a smile can transmit so much information! And only humans can understand that information. Only humans have that sensitivity.”

“True. One of the biggest problems in artificial intelligence is identifying facial and eye expressions.Some experts even say that computers may never be able to read the eyes.”

“So is it possible to create a language of expressions and then speak with the face and the eyes?”

Luo Ji thought this over seriously, then shook his head with a smile. He pointed at the Mona Lisa. “We can’t even read her expression.When I stare at her, the meaning of her smile changes every second and never repeats itself.”

Zhuang Yan jumped up and down excitedly, like a child. “But that means that facial expressions really can convey complex information!”

“And if the information is: ‘The spacecraft have left Earth, destination Jupiter’? How would you convey that using facial expressions?”

“When primitive man began to speak, surely it was only to convey simple meanings. It may even have been less complex than birdcalls. Language gradually grew in complexity after that.”

The end goal being a conlang composed entirely of self-references to the bodies of work which inspired its speakers, such that the only way of translating it would be to have likewise read and understood said work. And said work is full of thoughtcrimes so anyone who read and understood it couldn't be fully trusted by the ruling status quo.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
We’ve been over this before, @Bassoe, and I guess we have to take it from the top again. :rolleyes:

If you want to comment, you should at least engage with the subject matter instead of shoehorning your pet issues into a discussion that’s clearly not about them. We already know that’s your shtick, and while showing us some “cool media” or “interesting quotes” from an external site you probably had on-hand well before the conversation turned in that direction is attention-grabbing, you really don’t need to remind us. At this point, you’re just wasting thread space, and could easily be taken for a troll here to disrupt for its own sake.
 

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