My opinion is the opposite of many here. I think that this was a terrible action and a fundamental betrayal of Trump’s campaign rhetoric about putting America first. Just another in a long line of terrible actions the USA has taken in the region that will result in lost lives, lost treasure, and global instability. We should be getting out of Iraq, not assassinating foreign leaders
Well, it was an assassination of a military leader, not a political one. So it's not an assault upon their thought leaders so much as the people who are most capable of carrying it out. And as for Iraq, leaving Iraq will lead to global instability. Trump is also trying to leave Iraq, stupid stuff like this is the fault of Iran, who apparently thought that they could get away with an attack on our embassy.
I'm wary of this move. Big question I have right now: why was General Soleimani in Iraq rather than coordinating whatever he was in charge of safely in Iran?
Probably because not too many of his peers/rivals or even those he instructs has his level of skill and experience, not to mention personal connections to the terrorist cells that he has. In the Middle East, people don't share skills and knowledge like we do in the West, because having that secret makes you a greater asset and it being open knowledge makes you expendable. Someone will think twice about putting a bullet in your head if you're the only guy who can efficiently coordinate you Syrian-Israeli-Iraqi war strategies both to you and your peers and to the people doing the actual fighting.
That's great for the guy who knows the secret, until someone outside the social-political structure decides to take him out. Because at that point he has become a chokepoint of expertise and hence, a weak point. This was a brutal blow against the Iranians.
Can't they send communications over secure networks (not familiar with American intelligence capabilities, what I have heard paints them poorly), or did the military leadership really think they could travel through Iraq with impunity?
No, it's not that simple.
On the matter of ability, if you send a wireless signal, it can be picked up or even jammed by rival powers. That includes Israel, Turkey, and the United States. If you send a signal through cabal or wire, you're safe so long as someone hasn't tapped you between Iran and Syria. Neither of these are all that safe of means to transfer said information. On top of that, these terrorist cells demand a personal touch. They're being asked to have faith in people who live far away and are risking very little direct exposure themselves. Those leaders need to feel like they're important, both in personal time, the ability to coordinate strategy, and the ability to lodge complaints or requests. You can't send a lackey who has no means of assuring that to represent you. In addition to that, Iran works on plausible deniability, so any digital record of them sending orders or coordinating with terrorists could lead to US retaliation.
And in addition to that, you generally don't target people like this. The reason is that killing a general or head of state creates instability. An unstable entity is not someone you can engage in diplomacy with, so rival powers tend not to just off people within other governments. The bad outweighs the good. However, the US is looking to leave the region and so causing instability is a bonus for the US. And since the US is returning to its roots of being a naval power, this sort of move plays to our strengths.
Tensions flared up with the tanker attacks in May, which definitely have more of a bearing on the global situation thanks to the oil trade, yet no war started. Knowing that I'm not expecting Iran to start a full scale war.
I agree this probably won't escalate to a full war. Keep in mind though that those tankers being hit weren't American tankers. They were non-American. The Iranians more or less left our tankers alone.
They aren't wrong in believing the US won't touch them with previous examples of US military ventures failing due to lack of will over rules of engagement.
They acted too blatant with the rules jumping in and out of the safety line so when Soleimani jumped out he got a lethal dose of explosives.
How irreplaceable was those high ranking IRGC officers in Syria?
Iran has miscalculated.
See, traditionally we probably wouldn't pull a stunt like this because the US's role in the past several decades has been to try and act as a force of stability for the region. That's why a lot of people in the media seem to swing back and forth between supporting or condemning actions in the middle east by any president. In condemnation, it's generally because the media believes that the administration has produced more instability, often because of incompetence or accusations of corruption. It generally supports actions that brings stability to the Middle East, though it often skirts any approval of troop deployment, because it's not something the American public in any nation actually wants.
This is why Trump is rarely praised and he will not be praised here. Because what Trump has consistently done is produce instability. Because without US power in the area, history will unpause and three major powers will fight for domination of the area, the most brutal being between Saudi Arabia and Iran. So this is why when tankers are being hit, the media demands we do something. When one of our drones are shot down, the media condemns Trump for not responding because it produces instability--while at the same time condemning Bolton because his response would have also produced instability by severely damaging Iran. And Trump will not get approval here, because killing a top brass guy like this will produce instability both within Iran itself and within the greater Middle East as the Iranians seek to retalliate.
The miscalculation that Iran made was thinking that Trump was weak. They thought that since he did not respond to raids on tankers, or strike back for the attack on saudi oil infrastructure, or even destroying one of our spy drones--and within an election year, that Trump wouldn't dare to strike back. And they were very much mistaken. Because Trump can cripple Iran with one sortie order. And given what happend with this general, he can probably put some of their political elite thirty feet into a smoldering crater.
