Trump's Unseen Advantage

[Bacle]

There isnt one on the twitter feed, and if it were true I imagine everyone would be talking about it.

Because he or his people deleted it rather quickly once it was pointed out.

I saw the retweet, I saw the deletion, and I expect it will blow up on the news cycle within a day.

Edit, make that hour:


Another Edit, with Tim Scott supposed responce:


Yeah, keep doubting what I say and think because I put nation above party and about partisan tribalism.

 

[LordsFire]

This isn't about polls, this is about being on Twitter and the web a lot and reading the air.

There's your problem right there. The real world is not twitter. Most people in older generations aren't on it, and they vote a lot more than the younger generations. Further, Democrats have spent decades mastering and using manipulation of 'what the common wisdom is' to push their agenda.

We won't actually know what people really think until election day.

 

[Bacle]

There's your problem right there. The real world is not twitter. Most people in older generations aren't on it, and they vote a lot more than the younger generations. Further, Democrats have spent decades mastering and using manipulation of 'what the common wisdom is' to push their agenda.

We won't actually know what people really think until election day.

'The world is not Twitter' doesn't change anything I've said, because it's not just on Twitter.

I watch the press conferences, I've watched the rallies, and I listen to a lot of varied sources.

Social media and the net are the new 'normal' gathering place for people, and that trend isn't changing.

I hope Trump wins, and that this all blows over. I'm fucking praying for that. But I am not going to pretend his chances are getting better, right now.

As long as the GOP and Right keep betting the game on older folks, the more you all will fall behind in the long run. Appeals to younger groups, attempts to create a new generation of conservatives, are what is needed.

 

[LordsFire]

As long as the GOP and Right keep betting the game on older folks, the more you all will fall behind in the long run. Appeals to younger groups, attempts to create a new generation of conservatives, are what is needed.

You act like this isn't happening.

Just like you act like conservatives in general and republicans in particular haven't habitually denounced and rejected things like white nationalism.

It's honestly getting pretty obnoxious how you repeat the same criticisms over and over again, and ignore the fact that these are issues that have been and continue to be addressed. If you think more needs to be done, what are you doing about that?

 

[The Original Sixth]

This is the best version I can find right now.



Trump retweeted a tweet that had a better video of it, but that was deleted after people pointed out the man shouting, very clearly, 'WHITE POWER!' from his golf cart while demonstrating for Trump.

Honestly, if you hadn't pointed it out, I might have missed it. And as you said, it as almost immediately deleted when it was pointed out.

It's called reading his words, attitude, actions, and those of his staff.

Can you be more specific? Accidentally retweeting someone shouting white power isn't exactly the white flag.

I have tried to remain optimistic about Trump's chances and that most BS about him is media lies or manipulations.

I can no longer do that, not after this happened. I was on Twitter as it happened, and saw how the retweet was deleted pretty fast once people pointed out what had been said in the video.

I hope Trump fires whoever is running his Twitter right now, because this could be very bad for his chances.

So? Joe Biden literally told black people that if they didn't choose him, they weren't black anymore. There will be some blowback, but it was a retweet.

This isn't about polls, this is about being on Twitter and the web a lot and reading the air.

I'm sorry to say it's not one of your talents then.

I want Trump to win. But I'm not blind and not going to just march in rhetorical lockstep because what I say isn't popular.

To be honest, you haven't provided any good reason as to why he's suddenly out of the running. In fact, you're insisting that he wants to lose. This does not really match well with reality. His polls are still close, his economy if fast recovering from an epidemic, he's come out ahead of the riots, and he's not even had the chance to build up steam for November. It's not even July dude.

 

[Bacle]

You act like this isn't happening.

Just like you act like conservatives in general and republicans in particular haven't habitually denounced and rejected things like white nationalism.

It's honestly getting pretty obnoxious how you repeat the same criticisms over and over again, and ignore the fact that these are issues that have been and continue to be addressed. If you think more needs to be done, what are you doing about that?

I keep saying the same things, because the message doesn't get through.

I know my own limits, I know there are people who can articulate this better, and I wish they had better places to do it.

But I'm the slubb stuck saying it here, because so few people in the center are willing to come and actually make an effort to get the message across on a site with this one's rep. I get a lot of crap for it, just like I got crap on SB for breaking their echochamber, and am tired of trying to help people who just yell at me and insult me for putting nation above ideology of either side.

I've seen the worst of both sides, and there is a reason I am a registered Independent.

 

[Bacle]

Honestly, if you hadn't pointed it out, I might have missed it. And as you said, it as almost immediately deleted when it was pointed out.



Can you be more specific? Accidentally retweeting someone shouting white power isn't exactly the white flag.



So? Joe Biden literally told black people that if they didn't choose him, they weren't black anymore. There will be some blowback, but it was a retweet.



I'm sorry to say it's not one of your talents then.



To be honest, you haven't provided any good reason as to why he's suddenly out of the running. In fact, you're insisting that he wants to lose. This does not really match well with reality. His polls are still close, his economy if fast recovering from an epidemic, he's come out ahead of the riots, and he's not even had the chance to build up steam for November. It's not even July dude.

I have said I want him to win, and hope he does.

And I want to be clear, I feel the way I do about Trump's chances, not because he's been a bad president or because I think he's a racist. Most of the problems are not his fault; the swamp simple had more teeth and less morals than he seemed to have anticipated.

And he couldn't have anticipated Covid or George Floyd's murder.

However, this time, with this video...The White House said he didn't hear that part before it was posted, and I can believe that.

But he's POTUS during a time of high racial tension, whether it's his fault or not. Double checking the editing or audio of something like that before retweeting it should not be a struggle to do. Someone who was hired shouldn't have been, or someone should have been listening closer before posting it to that account.

 

[LordsFire]

I keep saying the same things, because the message doesn't get through.

I know my own limits, I know there are people who can articulate this better, and I wish they had better places to do it.

But I'm the slubb stuck saying it here, because so few people in the center are willing to come and actually make an effort to get the message across on a site with this one's rep. I get a lot of crap for it, just like I got crap on SB for breaking their echochamber, and am tired of trying to help people who just tell at me and insult me for putting nation above ideology of either side.

I've seen the worst of both sides, and there is a reason I am a registered Independent.

What would you take as a clear sign that the message has gotten through?

 

[Cherico]

I don't think it will really effect things in fall bacle.

The fact is Trump has been dragged through scandal after scandal, with full impeachment, nationwide riots, mass censorship, covid and so much bullshit that by this point the American people are just getting tired of the lefts antics. The powder is dry everything that could be used has been used and we are nearing the point where people will chant back to the far left.

"We don't care."

If we didn't have 4 years of nonstop bullshit maybe you would have a point but not anymore. The sympathy is gone, the good will used up the media increasingly discredited, and on top of that he's up against Biden who has so many problems its not even funny.

Maybe the dems can keep the house, but even that's going to be a rough match for them.

 

[Bacle]

What would you take as a clear sign that the message has gotten through?

I...I don't even know any more.

Last night I thought that the GOP was ridding itself of a nasty peice of bagagge in Mississippi. Then this happens this morning, and I feel like it's almost pointless to even try getting through any more.

I think I do it more out of habit than belief it will actually change minds, at this point.

I don't think it will really effect things in fall bacle.

The fact is Trump has been dragged through scandal after scandal, with full impeachment, nationwide riots, mass censorship, covid and so much bullshit that by this point the American people are just getting tired of the lefts antics. The powder is dry everything that could be used has been used and we are nearing the point where people will chant back to the far left.

"We don't care."

If we didn't have 4 years of nonstop bullshit maybe you would have a point but not anymore. The sympathy is gone, the good will used up the media increasingly discredited, and on top of that he's up against Biden who has so many problems its not even funny.

Maybe the dems can keep the house, but even that's going to be a rough match for them.

I fucking pray my feelings right now are wrong.

I am not someone who enjoys being right most of the time, because it means things ARE as bad as they seem.

 

[LordsFire]

I...I don't even know any more.

And this is why so many here are fed up with you.

"Do something!"

"Things are already being done."

"It's not good enough!"

"What would be enough for you?"

"...."

"How are we supposed to satisfy you if you don't even know what you want? Why should we put up with your rants about this if you're not doing anything about it yourself?"

 

[Bacle]

And this is why so many here are fed up with you.

"Do something!"

"Things are already being done."

"It's not good enough!"

"What would be enough for you?"

"...."

"How are we supposed to satisfy you if you don't even know what you want? Why should we put up with your rants about this if you're not doing anything about it yourself?"

The reason I don't know, is because I don't believe it is getting through, and frankly I'm not sure what ideas I could put out that wouldn't just result in more anger at me and insults hurled my way.

I have offered many examples over the months since this forum was founded. I listed many ways the GOP could improve and 3/5 times I get yelled and insulted for suggesting it. Most often because it's not 'conservative' enough.

I feel like I'm back in Whitehall, getting yelled at for pointing out issues and not having all the answers to fix them, or for not following tribal partisanship.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I have said I want him to win, and hope he does.

That's great, but I'm more interested in the strategic position. People can disagree about wanting him to be President. I don't feel as if that was ever an issue here or on any other site.

And I want to be clear, I feel the way I do about Trump's chances, not because he's been a bad president or because I think he's a racist. Most of the problems are not his fault; the swamp simple had more teeth and less morals than he seemed to have anticipated.

It was certainly deeper than he anticipated. Because Trump got hammered in his first two years after a lot of globalists realized that he was actually going to do what he promised.

And he couldn't have anticipated Covid or George Floyd's murder.

No, he couldn't. Both were trap narratives used by the Democrats to try and break his rising popularity. I know this seems terrifying now, that it seems like it's all falling apart, and it's about to end--but it isn't. This is a paper tiger. There's a reason why the DNC has pushed so hard on the COVID and Riot narratives. Because after this...there isn't much left. Say what you will about Hillary Clinton; she had actual support in-party. Say what you want about her health, her mental facilities were as sharp as ever. She could carry a stage on the level of a moderately likable politician--even if she were deeply hated.

Joe Biden has NOTHING. In the past three months, he went from being able to meekly hold a debate on stage against Sanders to being unable to complete a thought without fucking cards to read from. People like Cernovich have already warned that Biden is going to try to avoid the debates. And they will get flak for that. But what's worse is that they'll have to hide him from the public. People will see that the DNC is hiding Joe Biden. And the impression will be that if Biden won't meet Trump out on the debate stage, then he's a coward.

All these tactics of theirs came at huge costs. The COVID was their best play, but a temporary one. Worse, it basically removed the Globalist Pawn from the equation. People across the isle are pissed at the Chinese. No one here really trusts the Chinese. Trump has used the situation to cut down on immigrant workers. That both weakens California tech companies and gives him more local support. Then they sacrificed the COVID piece in order to employ their George Floyd, BLM, and Antifa pieces.

The George Floyd piece was successful play at first. The DNC tried to label it as Trump's fault for poor race relations, shifted blame entirely onto the police department, and excused any violence in relation to it. Instead of Trump moving to immediately destroy the piece at the sacrifice of his image to the Midlanders and Yankees, Trump instead let the rioters and Antifa do enough damage and scare everyone into thinking that the end was nigh.

Trump has successfully taken the George Floyd Piece off the table. He is in the process of removing the BLM and Antifa pieces at this moment. I'd argue that he has already done so. BLM has destroyed their reputation in the eyes of not only almost all white people, but a fair amount of black people as well. Antifa is not only getting hammered in the visuals, but they're literally going to jail and the rest will be fearing for their freedom soon.

The structural damage to Antifa's organization is going to be heavy. And if they lose 2020, they're probably going to riot again and Trump is going to throw even more of them in jail. It will take Antifa years to recover.

Going off the top of my head, this was the entirety of the Biden play set:

1. Biden's Record (Was destroyed in the DNC debates, by fellow competitors)
2. Stability (Is still in play, but can't move because the piece exists on paper only)
3. Competence (Again, still in play, but it's on paper only)
4. Charisma (Technically in-play, but essentially gone)
5. Black Support (Still in play)
6. COVID (Out of Play, but they will try and bring it back)
7. George Floyd (Out of play, sacrificed for BLM and Antifa to be used)
8. Antifa (Out of play, taken out by the very damage they caused)
9. BLM (Out of play, reputation damaged by association to the riots and racist comments)
10. Sexual Assault Allegations (Possibly in play, but that didn't work in 2016, it may not work at all in 2020)
11. In-Party Support (Greatly diminished, it not out of play)
12. Midlander support (In play)
13. Impeachment Allegations/Proceedings (Out of play)
14. The Media (In play, but diminished from 2016)
15. Obama's VP & Endorsed (In play)

Meanwhile, this is Trump's set:

1. Economy (Out of play, but may be returning to play)
2. Protectionism (In play)
3. The Wall (In play)
4. Law and Order (Is actively taking the Antifa and BLM pieces, but has taken a beating)
5. COVID Response (Out of play)
6. Growing Black Support (In play, but diminished and a target of the opposition)
7. Restored Military (In play)
8. ACA Reform (Out of play, but trying to bring it back in play)
9. In-Party Support (In play, but a current target of the opposition)
10. Midlander Support (In play, but current target of the opposition)
11. Yankee Support (In play, but current target of the opposition)
12. Charisma (In play, but was held back for some time)
13. Trump Rally (Was out of play, but is back in play)
14. Social Media (In play, but diminished by censorship)

Biden's team has 8 pieces still in play. Of those in play, three of them are on paper only. If Trump brings engages Biden in a debate, Biden will lose those three pieces in one swoop, which will in turn diminish the power of his other pieces. At which point, the DNC either sacrifices its other pieces in a desperate attempt to stop Trump or they pull back the pieces and let Biden get clobbered.

Trump has 10 of his pieces in play. He's held a lot of his movable pieces back and the DNC has sacrificed several pieces to break the five noted targets (the Economy, Social Media, In-Party support, Black support, Yankee support, and Midlander support). Trump was also unable to use the Trump rally, which weakened his in-party support and his growing base. Trump's use of his COVID response was also mediocre at best.

So of the 11 pieces Trump has in play right now, 6 of those have taken damage and are current targets of the DNC. So on paper, it might feel like Trump is losing. Because he's taken heavy damage on 4 of his remaining pieces, where as Biden still has 8 seemingly healthy pieces. The DNC's current strategy is to bring down those remaining 4 pieces by any means necessary. But they also have to avoid the debates and bad exposure for Biden or they will immediately drop down to 5 pieces and possibly lose more pieces. That's why they want to desperately bring back the COVID piece.

The unseen advantage here is that Trump's remaining pieces can actually restore the strength of those 4 pieces that have taken the most damage. All he needs is time. That's why the push is NOW. Because if Trump brings back his economic piece by November, he will have 12 pieces. And if Trump retains those 11 pieces and manages to engage Biden in even a single debate, Biden will be down to 5 pieces to Trump's 11.

Trump has taken a lot of damage. But the DNC have overreached and exhausted themselves all at once.

However, this time, with this video...The White House said he didn't hear that part before it was posted, and I can believe that.

I think we can all believe that.

But he's POTUS during a time of high racial tension, whether it's his fault or not. Double checking the editing or audio of something like that before retweeting it should not be a struggle to do. Someone who was hired shouldn't have been, or someone should have been listening closer before posting it to that account.

It was certainly something that will cost him in the short run, but like I said. It's a believable mistake and the fact that Trump always doubles down and almost never admits mistakes means that when he does take something down, it's pretty obvious even HE realizes it was a bad idea or didn't mean to do that. The media will play it up, but really, what can they say?

"The President retweeted someone saying something racist...he also immediately deleted it and his staff said he hadn't heard that part..."

There's ammunition there to be sure, but it's not really a large clip.

 

[Bacle]

That's great, but I'm more interested in the strategic position. People can disagree about wanting him to be President. I don't feel as if that was ever an issue here or on any other site.



It was certainly deeper than he anticipated. Because Trump got hammered in his first two years after a lot of globalists realized that he was actually going to do what he promised.



No, he couldn't. Both were trap narratives used by the Democrats to try and break his rising popularity. I know this seems terrifying now, that it seems like it's all falling apart, and it's about to end--but it isn't. This is a paper tiger. There's a reason why the DNC has pushed so hard on the COVID and Riot narratives. Because after this...there isn't much left. Say what you will about Hillary Clinton; she had actual support in-party. Say what you want about her health, her mental facilities were as sharp as ever. She could carry a stage on the level of a moderately likable politician--even if she were deeply hated.

Joe Biden has NOTHING. In the past three months, he went from being able to meekly hold a debate on stage against Sanders to being unable to complete a thought without fucking cards to read from. People like Cernovich have already warned that Biden is going to try to avoid the debates. And they will get flak for that. But what's worse is that they'll have to hide him from the public. People will see that the DNC is hiding Joe Biden. And the impression will be that if Biden won't meet Trump out on the debate stage, then he's a coward.

All these tactics of theirs came at huge costs. The COVID was their best play, but a temporary one. Worse, it basically removed the Globalist Pawn from the equation. People across the isle are pissed at the Chinese. No one here really trusts the Chinese. Trump has used the situation to cut down on immigrant workers. That both weakens California tech companies and gives him more local support. Then they sacrificed the COVID piece in order to employ their George Floyd, BLM, and Antifa pieces.

The George Floyd piece was successful play at first. The DNC tried to label it as Trump's fault for poor race relations, shifted blame entirely onto the police department, and excused any violence in relation to it. Instead of Trump moving to immediately destroy the piece at the sacrifice of his image to the Midlanders and Yankees, Trump instead let the rioters and Antifa do enough damage and scare everyone into thinking that the end was nigh.

Trump has successfully taken the George Floyd Piece off the table. He is in the process of removing the BLM and Antifa pieces at this moment. I'd argue that he has already done so. BLM has destroyed their reputation in the eyes of not only almost all white people, but a fair amount of black people as well. Antifa is not only getting hammered in the visuals, but they're literally going to jail and the rest will be fearing for their freedom soon.

The structural damage to Antifa's organization is going to be heavy. And if they lose 2020, they're probably going to riot again and Trump is going to throw even more of them in jail. It will take Antifa years to recover.

Going off the top of my head, this was the entirety of the Biden play set:

1. Biden's Record (Was destroyed in the DNC debates, by fellow competitors)
2. Stability (Is still in play, but can't move because the piece exists on paper only)
3. Competence (Again, still in play, but it's on paper only)
4. Charisma (Technically in-play, but essentially gone)
5. Black Support (Still in play)
6. COVID (Out of Play, but they will try and bring it back)
7. George Floyd (Out of play, sacrificed for BLM and Antifa to be used)
8. Antifa (Out of play, taken out by the very damage they caused)
9. BLM (Out of play, reputation damaged by association to the riots and racist comments)
10. Sexual Assault Allegations (Possibly in play, but that didn't work in 2016, it may not work at all in 2020)
11. In-Party Support (Greatly diminished, it not out of play)
12. Midlander support (In play)
13. Impeachment Allegations/Proceedings (Out of play)
14. The Media (In play, but diminished from 2016)
15. Obama's VP & Endorsed (In play)

Meanwhile, this is Trump's set:

1. Economy (Out of play, but may be returning to play)
2. Protectionism (In play)
3. The Wall (In play)
4. Law and Order (Is actively taking the Antifa and BLM pieces, but has taken a beating)
5. COVID Response (Out of play)
6. Growing Black Support (In play, but diminished and a target of the opposition)
7. Restored Military (In play)
8. ACA Reform (Out of play, but trying to bring it back in play)
9. In-Party Support (In play, but a current target of the opposition)
10. Midlander Support (In play, but current target of the opposition)
11. Yankee Support (In play, but current target of the opposition)
12. Charisma (In play, but was held back for some time)
13. Trump Rally (Was out of play, but is back in play)
14. Social Media (In play, but diminished by censorship)

Biden's team has 8 pieces still in play. Of those in play, three of them are on paper only. If Trump brings engages Biden in a debate, Biden will lose those three pieces in one swoop, which will in turn diminish the power of his other pieces. At which point, the DNC either sacrifices its other pieces in a desperate attempt to stop Trump or they pull back the pieces and let Biden get clobbered.

Trump has 10 of his pieces in play. He's held a lot of his movable pieces back and the DNC has sacrificed several pieces to break the five noted targets (the Economy, Social Media, In-Party support, Black support, Yankee support, and Midlander support). Trump was also unable to use the Trump rally, which weakened his in-party support and his growing base. Trump's use of his COVID response was also mediocre at best.

So of the 11 pieces Trump has in play right now, 6 of those have taken damage and are current targets of the DNC. So on paper, it might feel like Trump is losing. Because he's taken heavy damage on 4 of his remaining pieces, where as Biden still has 8 seemingly healthy pieces. The DNC's current strategy is to bring down those remaining 4 pieces by any means necessary. But they also have to avoid the debates and bad exposure for Biden or they will immediately drop down to 5 pieces and possibly lose more pieces. That's why they want to desperately bring back the COVID piece.

The unseen advantage here is that Trump's remaining pieces can actually restore the strength of those 4 pieces that have taken the most damage. All he needs is time. That's why the push is NOW. Because if Trump brings back his economic piece by November, he will have 12 pieces. And if Trump retains those 11 pieces and manages to engage Biden in even a single debate, Biden will be down to 5 pieces to Trump's 11.

Trump has taken a lot of damage. But the DNC have overreached and exhausted themselves all at once.




I think we can all believe that.



It was certainly something that will cost him in the short run, but like I said. It's a believable mistake and the fact that Trump always doubles down and almost never admits mistakes means that when he does take something down, it's pretty obvious even HE realizes it was a bad idea or didn't mean to do that. The media will play it up, but really, what can they say?

"The President retweeted someone saying something racist...he also immediately deleted it and his staff said he hadn't heard that part..."

There's ammunition there to be sure, but it's not really a large clip.

I hope your analysis is better than mine, come November.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

The Democrats had to use a veritable act of God in the form of Coronavirus to slow down the Trump train, and it has still failed to stop it. Given that I don't think either the Covid hysteria or lockdowns will survive the next few months, things should be relatively back to normal by October/November. At that point, with how much of a wet fart the pandemic turned out to be, Trump should absolutely hammer the Democrats and Media for all the damage they have caused. The best result for the Dems there, is that Trump slaps them with the "incompetent cowards" label, or at worst he can accuse them of being willfully malicious in an attempt to undermine him. Those labels will stick and drive Republican voters into a frenzy whilst giving Independents and Centrists food for thought.

He'd also do well to promise to punish the shit out of China in his second term. That would rake in some votes.

Rambling aside, I reckon Trump still has a very good chance of reelection. He's exceedingly popular among Republicans, and many swing voters have been utterly alienated by Democrat antics. In essence, the most sure fire way for Trump to lose is if he's somehow incapacitated. The Dems and their crackpot schemes could well win the election for him.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I hope your analysis is better than mine.

So do I. I've invested a lot in it.

That said, I am going to revise my list.

Biden

1. Record (Out of play)
2. Stability (In Play, Paper Tiger)
3. Competence (In play, Paper Tiger)
4. Charisma (In play, Paper Tiger)
5. Black Support (In play)
6. COVID (Out of play, trying to bring back)
7. George (Out of play)
8. BLM (Out of play, trying to salvage)
9. Antifa (Out of play)
10. Sexual Assault Allegations (Probably Out of Play, but you never know they might bring it back)
11. In-Party Support (Out of play)
12. Midlander Support (In play)
13. Impeachment (Out of play)
14. The Media (In play, but diminished from 2016)
15. Obama Endorsement (In play)
16. FBI & Deep State Allies (Out of play)

Trump

1. Economy (Out of play, looks to be returning)
2. Protectionism (In Play)
3. The Wall (In play)
4. Law & Order (In play, but has taken a bit of a beating to protect other pieces)
5. COVID Response (Out of play, was mediocre at best and unfairly covered by media)
6. Black Support (In play, but a small piece)
7. Military (In play)
8. ACA Reform (Out of Play)
9. In-Party Support (In play, but under direct attack now)
10. Midlander Support (In play, but diminished from riots & COVID)
11. Yankee Support (In play, but diminished from riots & COVID)
12. Charisma (In play)
13. Trump Rally (In Play, was formally out of play)
14. Social Media (In Play, but under constant attack from censorship)

To explain this, each piece is sort of its own set of pieces. Each of those pieces can lose so many of their own pieces before they're either made irrelevant or outright destroyed. A piece may be strong or weak to begin with--or may even only exist on paper. From the outset, Biden was the chosen ones for the DNC. The problem with the DNC debates though, was that they damaged his Stability, Competence, and Charisma pieces. And annihilated the Record and In-Party Support pieces. Biden was literally apologizing for his record and the division meant that in-party support was not going to be useful at all.

The DNC had tried to use Impeachment as a cloud to hang over Trump's head. It was meant to erode all of his pieces. It was an effective tool too, having kept Trump weak throughout his first term. But Trump forced Pelosi to actually go through with the process and it fell completely apart. The DNC correctly identified Trump's economy, his charisma, his in-party support, and his rallies as his biggest pieces. When COVID reared its ugly head, the DNC capitalized on it.

In one blow, the DNC took away all three of those pieces. The Economy piece was Trumps prize piece too. It was his Queen, so to speak. Because everyone would look past his flaws if Trump could raise the US economy like a phoenix from the ashes. So the Dems hit Trump hard on COVID. And to their credit, they did a good job. Specifically the media trying to make it look scary and put all the blame on Trump, even if DNC members profited from the tragedy or had initially dismissed it. Trump's own COVID Response piece was also not that great. But the mere fact that it existed helped save his ass.

The problem was, the COVID piece could never last forever. You cannot keep the US economy shut down until November. And unfortunately for the DNC, they probably realized that the economy might come roaring back. This was predicted as a possibility to begin with. Trump could still play his Queen if even only a partial recovery came back before the election. The rest could be blamed upon COVID or even the DNC itself. At that point, the DNC realized it needed another piece to use against Trump. They had BLM and Antifa, but no excuse to unleash them.

So the Media piece began to push up stories of cop mishaps or abuse of power against black people. Some of it I expect was organic, but as luck would have it--they found one. George Floyd. And so the media pushed the narrative while the DNC activated BLM and then more secretly activated Antifa. While BLM provided legitimate cover of protesting, Antifa incited looting and carried out arson. Soon you had riots.

Now, the plan was for Trump to use his Law & Order piece to ruthlessly crush BLM. That would destroy his Yankee, Black, and Midlander pieces. Or at least weaken them while the Media replayed it time and time again, to drive in the fear of white supremacy. That would have brought down Trump's pieces to 6 pieces. And would have left the DNC with 9 pieces (on paper, 6 in reality--so a dead heat, but one that they could work with).

The problem was that instead of taking the bait, Trump waited and waited. The George Floyd piece was played out. Everyone began to grow anxious that Trump wasn't responding. Trump took the heat so that Antifa and BLM would overextend themselves. Trump then began the process of taking those two pieces. In response, Antifa went completely off the rails and BLM followed suit with insane demands. But doing so only increased the damage; the DNC wasn't able to pull them back. And now Trump is utterly destroying Antifa and has crippled BLM (as the two are sister movements, BLM just has a racial overtone).

So what has happened is a complete reversal; instead of taking Trump's pieces, they lost their pieces and Trump has not only held onto those pieces (albeit, in a diminished form), but he regained his Rally and Charisma pieces. Now he's working on regaining his Queen. The current score is thus Biden with 7 piecs (4 functional pieces) and Trump with 10 pieces (but with 3 heavily damaged, so it feels like 7).

With their remaining effective pieces (Black Support, Media, Midlander Support, Obama) the DNC is now moving to try and break up Trump's base with polls in heavy bias of Biden, while at the same time trying to hide Biden's weakness. This appears to be working now, because the move is taking advantage of Trump's damaged pieces and his weakened economy. In effect, they're using the very damage they caused to the nation to attack Trump's base.

Now, if this works, it's game over. Without in-party support, the rallies fail and Trump's charisma dives. His other three supporting pieces, fueled by those, might very well collapse. It would leave Trump with 4 pieces, 5 if the economy returns in strength. And if the DNC can manage for Biden not to humiliate himself in a debate (by whatever means exist), then that's 7 piece to Trump's 4-5. Biden could possibly win.

These major moves is why there is a sense of Trump's failure. But what the DNC is not taking into account is Trump's charisma. Trump only needs to prevent his in-party support from being taken or too heavily damaged long enough for his rallies and his charisma to rejuvenate support. It comes down to how much of an effect those rallies have on the COVID spread or what the media can convince people they have.

I am not convinced the DNC strategy is going to work. The reason is that Trump has had a lower point of in-party support before; the Grab Them By the Pussy tape. That had been the perfect blow, delivered at the perfect time, and left Trump scrambling. Granted, some pillars then did not crack as they have now. But the overall damage was greater then. I am confident that if Trump's economy continues to return, his rallies continue to draw in large crowds, and his keeps his cool--he can and will keep his In-Party support and once off the defensive, move to create momentum.

Once that momentum gets going, the DNC will be in dire straights. What the DNC did was rush Trump before he could build his momentum in the Summer. Which was very well played...but they overextended with BLM and Antifa. I don't expect them to be a playable piece in late summer or the fall. Worse, the debates are coming up. The DNC is hoping to find a way to wiggle out of those, even while promising Biden will attend. The hope is to retain as much of Biden's Stability, Charisma, and Competence pieces for as long as possible, as intact as possible.

The problem is, in order to keep those pieces in play, the DNC can't use them. They're only there to look intimidating. If BLM and Antifa and COVID were still in play, they could excuse themselves from the debates with minimal damage. But all three are out of play. The DNC had sacrificed COVID for the riots in hopes of gutting Trump's pieces. And it would have been a master stroke had it worked. Instead, they don't have much to manipulate the board with after that. Which means, they know that Biden is going to start losing his Stability, Charisma, and Competence pieces. He's already damaged those himself. Between his own incompetence and a lack of debate and Trump's charisma...he's going to suffer. He may even be shamed into debating Trump. At which point, he loses those pieces. And shortly thereafter, the remaining pieces will simply collapse on their own.

The DNC's only hope right now is to continue to damage Trump through the Media (their Queen, by the way) while hoping to take as little damage on Biden's remaining core pieces. (Biden's Charisma, Stability, & Competence makes up his King, Trump's King is actually his Charisma, Rallies, and In-Party Support).

If Trump isn't effectively knocked out by mid to late July, the DNC is in big trouble.

EDIT -- Forgot about Trump's Social Media piece. I always forget about that one for some reason. The piece has been worn down, but it's useful in that it's a piece that is almost impossible to be taken away from him. Twitter tried a soft blow by labeling his tweets as factually incorrect or for inciting violence and Trump responded by threatening to open them all up to lawsuits that would bankrupt them.

 

[Yinko]

@The Original Sixth What about the response to China? So far I've not heard the democrat plan for what they will do in regards to China or the embargo if they win. They raised harsh treatment against Russia as a diversion instead. Do you know if they even have a plan, or if they plan to appease them again?

At the moment it seems like there is a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment because of the wu-flu. If there is ever a debate between Trump and Biden, or even a real townhall with Biden, the Chinese-question should come up. Even if the democrats successfully avoid the issue for the entire election, Trump is still very vocal against China, and well known for it. Shouldn't that also be a piece in his pocket?

 

[Spartan303]

The Democrats had to use a veritable act of God in the form of Coronavirus to slow down the Trump train, and it has still failed to stop it. Given that I don't think either the Covid hysteria or lockdowns will survive the next few months, things should be relatively back to normal by October/November. At that point, with how much of a wet fart the pandemic turned out to be, Trump should absolutely hammer the Democrats and Media for all the damage they have caused. The best result for the Dems there, is that Trump slaps them with the "incompetent cowards" label, or at worst he can accuse them of being willfully malicious in an attempt to undermine him. Those labels will stick and drive Republican voters into a frenzy whilst giving Independents and Centrists food for thought.

He'd also do well to promise to punish the shit out of China in his second term. That would rake in some votes.

Rambling aside, I reckon Trump still has a very good chance of reelection. He's exceedingly popular among Republicans, and many swing voters have been utterly alienated by Democrat antics. In essence, the most sure fire way for Trump to lose is if he's somehow incapacitated. The Dems and their crackpot schemes could well win the election for him.

That's already happening internationally.

 

[The Original Sixth]

@The Original Sixth What about the response to China? So far I've not heard the democrat plan for what they will do in regards to China or the embargo if they win. They raised harsh treatment against Russia as a diversion instead. Do you know if they even have a plan, or if they plan to appease them again?

At the moment it seems like there is a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment because of the wu-flu. If there is ever a debate between Trump and Biden, or even a real townhall with Biden, the Chinese-question should come up. Even if the democrats successfully avoid the issue for the entire election, Trump is still very vocal against China, and well known for it. Shouldn't that also be a piece in his pocket?

That sort of falls under the COVID-19 response and his Protectionism. COVID-19 was really more of a defensive piece for him. The Protectionism is a Knight for Trump. It's not something he can really directly employ against the left, but it helped him build his Queen. Trump might be able to hammer Biden at the debates with part of that, but it really falls under his Charisma piece.

As far as a plan, a lot of this stuff is sort of play-it-as-you-go, but there is a general strategy; make Trump out to be a racist, shit out bullcrap polls to give an illusion of strength, incite riots, and try to keep Biden far--far away from Trump. Or a mic, if possible. There is also a concentrated effort to bring back the COVID-19 scare, but that piece was reaching its end a month ago. People were just tired of being kept inside. The economy had developed meager, but widespread defensive measures to slow the spread. Trump's administration has invested into lots of vaccines, cures, and PPE for the US. In fact, for domestic PPE, Wisconsin is building the huge fucking machines to produce N95 masks domestically. By August they should have been delivered to one of the Dakotas and mass domestic production should be in or near full swing.

It's not so much that the DNC had no strategy or effective pieces, but everything they have tried has failed. Sessions was removed in favor of Barr, exposing the FBI and their pathetic probe (which was already in dire straights). The Democrats tried to start a narrative in the House for Impeachment anyway, but then switched to the Ukraine scandal. Pelosi had planned to hold it over Trump's head. The plan was to hold investigations between late 2019 to late 2020, then drop them if/when they won. Problem was that Trump baited AOC and other leftists to push for Impachment, which the Media happily broadcasted. To try and save in-party support (which was critical for the DNC and something they still had a hope of salvaging), Pelosi went through with Impeachment. She realized the mistake too late and tried to stall, but the Senate forced her hand.

Impeachment failed and they really had nothing. I'm guessing the hope was for the DNC to try and shore up in-party support by forcing Sanders to capitulate and using BLM to undercut Trump while the DNC pandered to black voters. Then COVID started to gain momentum and the DNC decided to use it as a measure against Trump. My guess is that they expected Trump to protect his Queen and let the virus rampage through the country. That may originally have been closer to his intention than what happened. I felt a lot of anger coming from Trump around then. The DNC members backtracked, the media pretended they had all been against COVID-19 to begin with.

I think Trump did what they hadn't expected; he sacrificed his Queen. I suspect that the DNC had hoped to only try and attribute the deaths following COVID-19 to Trump, but felt they had won a jackpot; they could both blame Trump for the COVID-19 deaths AND slam him on the economy. Notice that the Democrats had not immediately put forward a bill to supplement aid. In fact, it was Trump and the Republicans who put it together. It was the Democrats who dragged their heels. And the longer it was closed, the more damage it would do. They knew as well as Trump that the US could only keep the economy closed for 2-3 months before it suffered irreparable harm.

During COVID-19 though, a few things became clear. First, the US economy was strongly resistant to the damage that the shutdowns had caused. Second, the epidemic's global effects had actually driven a metric shitload of money into the US. We didn't just break even as far as money in the US system, we might have actually of made a profit of the epidemic. That money can go in for a second set of shut downs...or it can be diverted into investing in the US economy. Third, the Democrats weren't able to blame Trump entirely for the COVID-19 response; from dragging their feet to incompetence by their own governors, the Democrats were taking just as much heat as Trump was for COVID-19. Fourth, Trump had set a date to re-open and the country was actually in favor of it. Yes, even in blue states. The economic loss was just too hard.

Things went from bad to worse when it became apparent that Biden's dementia had grown worse. Substantially worse. However he was coping with the loss of his facilities before, it was no longer working. The dementia went from Biden forgetting where he was (which could be played off and wouldn't go well beyond the Republicans) became painfully obvious in soft-ball interviews and speeches. Worse than that, my guess that they realized that by the end of Sanders, they were not going to get the in-party support they needed. Even Obama's endorsement of Biden had a lackluster response.

So with the media's help, they unleashed BLM on the nation, using them as both a means of undermining Trump and given cover to Antifa's terrorist activities. The hope here I expect was that Trump--the strong man and big money guy, couldn't possibly have a weak economy in one hand and people rioting on the other. Because if he didn't respond, he would certainly look as though he had lost control. And if he did respond...well, there were Antifa members able and willing to take one for the team and media cameras ready to capture it all in glorious HD.

But then Trump didn't respond. So they tried to jab at him by calling him a coward. Gloating about him hiding in a bunker after they set Antifa-led rioters after him in DC. And then Trump responded with the mobilization of the Secret Service and the National Guard. The DNC cheered and the media pounced to tell everyone how Trump was sicking his jack-booted troops on innocent BLM protesters...and found that voters on BOTH SIDES OF THE ISLES weren't angry about the brutality, but the delay at the brutality. Because they--especially Midlanders and Yankees who tend to side more with gun control than not, had been promised for decades that they didn't really need any firepower because the police had that firepower.

And the past two weeks they'd watched politicians withdraw police forces from rioters. Over a hundred and fifty million dollars of damage to one city alone. Hundreds of millions across the country. The play had failed. But once BLM and Antifa had been released, they were not so easy to put back again. Antifa members created the CHAZ. The Seattle mayor left them, probably hoping that Trump, thinking the momentum and public opinion was on his side, would crush them. I wonder if that's how they happened to get armed thugs in that area, but we're bordering on deep level conspiracy theories there.

Trump of course, did the opposite. Instead of finishing off the BLM pieces in play, Trump instead opted to let Seattle handle it. In effect, because it was limited to one or two locations, Trump had the advantage of all the downside that Antifa brings to the table, without having to suffer the consequences or pay the cost of removing them. Antifa responded by trying to provoke him in DC, where he could NOT ignore such a challenge. It went on for a day and he put the uprising in check. And public response was with him.

And that brings us to now. BLM has spent all of its political goodwill given to it by the public. Any further BLM protest is going to probably undercut Biden's support from both the Midlands and his own party (in the form of Yankees). One wonders if enough angry people in Minnesota might turn on the Dem politicians and go red this year. Antifa itself is long-term going to suffer from these arrests. Because I expect the FBI will use the threat of 10+ year prison terms to break the lower members. Which will give them the organizers. Which may even yield some of the real movers within Antifa. Either way, Antifa is going to suffer hierarchical damage that is not going to be easy to replace. Like all terrorist groups, skill and power resides in a few individuals who once removed, are not easy to replace. The short-term effect is that Antifa is going to lose a lot of low-level organizers, mid-level organizers, and lots of front-line Jihad Beta-Cucks.

The only possible choice for the DNC right now is to basically have the media fabricate a huge Biden lead by turning the black pills against Trump and killing in-party support. While Trump's damage is short-term right now, that damage has weakened him and it's not an easy path to restore his momentum that he had been eager to build in June. Barring any surprise twists, this will probably be Trump's weakest point in the general. And if he doesn't navigate us carefully, it might break. The steel of Trump's in-party support has not been well tested since 2016, when he took a hard hit with the #MeToo video.

That said, if Trump can weather this storm and build his momentum, he can still win. And it will put the DNC in the really poor position of having trying to worm their way out of the debates to even have a chance of saving Biden's King. Because if Trump exposes the King to be a old helpless fool, the DNC cannot possibly win.

 

[Cherico]

So what happens to the DNC if they lose this election?