2016 taught everyone that polls aren't always accurate. Certainly there were accurate polls, but just as often we see lots and lots of inaccurate polling being done. The most inaccurate polls were generally in states that were believed to be safe, but were actually in danger of being lost. Examples include Wisconsin and Michigan.
Some of you might have heard that the black pills are screaming that Trump is going to lose. Our favorite Mike Cernobitch, is one of the primary people insisting that Trump and by extent the GOP, is going to get wiped out in 2020. Whether this is Cernovich trying to panic people into voting (possible) or is simply whoring himself by trying to stir the pot (a bit more likely) is anyone's guess. That said, he does raise some points.
So if you want really accurate information on polling, go to him. And yes, RCP (real clear politics) is a good source for seeing the full spread of polls taken. In fact, I used it and looked at 2016 and now in 2020. I looked closely at four swing states from 2016; Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. These states are under heavy scrutiny by the DNC, because Trump won these by very, very narrow margins. 0.7, 0.7, 0.3, and 1.2 respectfully. Those are the most in play.
What's interesting was that in 2016, the polls were inaccurate in who was favored. They were:
To the right is the numerical value that the pro-Clinton finding polls were off by. Wisconsin is by far the worst and is probably an outlier. What we can see though is that the polls generally undervalue Trump's support by 3 points. Those who watch Styxx might also have heard that Biden has low in-party support. That's true. Antifa is rioting impart because Sanders got on his knees and took Biden's dick in his ass. The people who support the protests and the riots are generally NOT going to vote for Biden. Because in their minds, Biden is part of the problem. He's too moderate. He also can't risk chasing their votes, because he needs to chase after the Midlander and Florida vote. In effect, part of why Trump held back so many times was to avoid scaring away the swing voting populations. The closer we get to election, the more that Biden has to worry about the same problem.
Anyway, I looked at 2016 and looked specifically at the lead that Clinton had over Biden for June. What I'm looking at is momentum. As much as middle America HATED Clinton and even though the far left despised Clinton, Clinton had strong in-party support. A lot of people rallied for her. The Neo-Liberals were not well liked, but it was perceived that they were the winning team. What I found was that in June of 2016, Clinton either held near or greater support across all three states.
Furthermore, I suspect some of the 2020 polls are a bit suspicious. Personally, I'm starting to ignore swing state polls that show someone ahead by 10 or more points. Biden's Pennsylvania advantage for example, is showing oldest to newest; +6, +10, and +3. The +10 is from the NY Times and is probably complete and utter bullshit. The Harper and CNBC polls are probably more accurate. But what that shows is that Biden's support is probably dropping as he gets more attention. If you look at the soft support that Trump had in 2016, which I expect is the "silent Trump supporter" type, for Pennsylvania that's 2.6. My guess is that Biden is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania. What I've estimated for actual support is this:
I would also like to add--and this is hypothetical here, bordering on wishful thinking, that Biden is going to be facing a lack of in-party support. Less than Clinton. People hated or disliked Clinton, but she had a strong base. Biden has a weaker base. Getting that Mitt Romney feel with the lack of in-party enthusiasm. Biden's support back in May from the black community was 9% lower than it was for Clinton.
Interestingly, Clinton had 88% for her, 8% for Trump, and 2% who were unsure.
In 2020, Biden has 79% for him, 11% for Trump, and 11% who are unsure. (Look, I don't know where WP got the extra 1%)
I suspect that Biden may face heavy losses in support as the campaign goes on. The DNC is already trying to set the table for the conversation of doing away with the debates. Already a few institutions are citing COVID 19 concerns. The DNC will try and avoid a debate. I think that would be catastrophic for the DNC, but not as much as letting Biden debate. Because Biden has gotten much, much worse in his time between the primaries and the general. He's gone from forgetting which state he's in to forgetting the end of his thought.
That said, I don't think they'll be able to avoid all of the debates. That one debate will be enough to destroy Biden. Hopefully, Trump will be able to disrupt their narrative of avoiding the debate.
In any case, I think Biden will probably lose 2.5-5 points due to a lack of excitement among the Democrats.
Some of you might have heard that the black pills are screaming that Trump is going to lose. Our favorite Mike Cernobitch, is one of the primary people insisting that Trump and by extent the GOP, is going to get wiped out in 2020. Whether this is Cernovich trying to panic people into voting (possible) or is simply whoring himself by trying to stir the pot (a bit more likely) is anyone's guess. That said, he does raise some points.
- Trump has lost the internet tough guy crowd. At least as of now. The reason is that it's much easier to act like a tough guy while risking nothing, than it is to engage in a political power struggle that makes Star Trek 3D chess look childish in comparison. Despite the fact that Trump is winning on nearly all fronts, he hasn't acted like the reckless badass that Mike Cernobitch jerks off to at night.
- Trump has not defended alt-media groups as much as they would have liked. Mister Metokur called it about two years ago; Trump wasn't going to step in and stop Google from attacking the right on their platforms because he wanted to make it a campaign issue in 2020. That's a cold move to make, especially when you're leaving your allies out to freeze, but the fact is that it's working. Ted Cruz is pushing for Parler as an alternative site, while Trump is pushing forward with means of punishing Google, Facebook, and Twitter by forcing them to either choose to be an open platform or to act as a publisher that edits. All three are now wide open for painful lawsuits.
- Trump has let down the Law and Order types by holding off on his response to the riots, as well as average voters. Average voters were more upset by Trump acting so late, then what actually happened after he deployed the military.
So if you want really accurate information on polling, go to him. And yes, RCP (real clear politics) is a good source for seeing the full spread of polls taken. In fact, I used it and looked at 2016 and now in 2020. I looked closely at four swing states from 2016; Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. These states are under heavy scrutiny by the DNC, because Trump won these by very, very narrow margins. 0.7, 0.7, 0.3, and 1.2 respectfully. Those are the most in play.
What's interesting was that in 2016, the polls were inaccurate in who was favored. They were:
- Wisconsin -- +6.5 Clinton
- Pennsylvania -- +1.9 Clinton
- Michigan -- +3.4 Clinton
- Florida -- +2 Clinton
- Wisconsin -- +0.7 Trump (7.2)
- Pennsylvania -- +0.7 points (2.6)
- Michigan -- +0.3 Trump (3.7)
- Florida -- +1.2 Trump (3.2)
To the right is the numerical value that the pro-Clinton finding polls were off by. Wisconsin is by far the worst and is probably an outlier. What we can see though is that the polls generally undervalue Trump's support by 3 points. Those who watch Styxx might also have heard that Biden has low in-party support. That's true. Antifa is rioting impart because Sanders got on his knees and took Biden's dick in his ass. The people who support the protests and the riots are generally NOT going to vote for Biden. Because in their minds, Biden is part of the problem. He's too moderate. He also can't risk chasing their votes, because he needs to chase after the Midlander and Florida vote. In effect, part of why Trump held back so many times was to avoid scaring away the swing voting populations. The closer we get to election, the more that Biden has to worry about the same problem.
Anyway, I looked at 2016 and looked specifically at the lead that Clinton had over Biden for June. What I'm looking at is momentum. As much as middle America HATED Clinton and even though the far left despised Clinton, Clinton had strong in-party support. A lot of people rallied for her. The Neo-Liberals were not well liked, but it was perceived that they were the winning team. What I found was that in June of 2016, Clinton either held near or greater support across all three states.
- Wisconsin -- +3 Biden to +1 Clinton
- Pennsylvania -- +3-5 for Clinton
- Michigan -- +2-3 for Clinton
- Florida -- +3-5 for Biden
Furthermore, I suspect some of the 2020 polls are a bit suspicious. Personally, I'm starting to ignore swing state polls that show someone ahead by 10 or more points. Biden's Pennsylvania advantage for example, is showing oldest to newest; +6, +10, and +3. The +10 is from the NY Times and is probably complete and utter bullshit. The Harper and CNBC polls are probably more accurate. But what that shows is that Biden's support is probably dropping as he gets more attention. If you look at the soft support that Trump had in 2016, which I expect is the "silent Trump supporter" type, for Pennsylvania that's 2.6. My guess is that Biden is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania. What I've estimated for actual support is this:
- Wisconsin -- +2.5 for Trump to +0.8 for Biden
- Pennsylvania -- +0.4 to +3.4 for Biden
- Michigan -- +1.7 to 2.7 for Trump
- Florida -- +2.8 to 5.8 for Biden
I would also like to add--and this is hypothetical here, bordering on wishful thinking, that Biden is going to be facing a lack of in-party support. Less than Clinton. People hated or disliked Clinton, but she had a strong base. Biden has a weaker base. Getting that Mitt Romney feel with the lack of in-party enthusiasm. Biden's support back in May from the black community was 9% lower than it was for Clinton.
Interestingly, Clinton had 88% for her, 8% for Trump, and 2% who were unsure.
In 2020, Biden has 79% for him, 11% for Trump, and 11% who are unsure. (Look, I don't know where WP got the extra 1%)
I suspect that Biden may face heavy losses in support as the campaign goes on. The DNC is already trying to set the table for the conversation of doing away with the debates. Already a few institutions are citing COVID 19 concerns. The DNC will try and avoid a debate. I think that would be catastrophic for the DNC, but not as much as letting Biden debate. Because Biden has gotten much, much worse in his time between the primaries and the general. He's gone from forgetting which state he's in to forgetting the end of his thought.
That said, I don't think they'll be able to avoid all of the debates. That one debate will be enough to destroy Biden. Hopefully, Trump will be able to disrupt their narrative of avoiding the debate.
In any case, I think Biden will probably lose 2.5-5 points due to a lack of excitement among the Democrats.