The War in Afghanistan

[Marduk]

It really, really pains me to agree with anything Biden says--and God knows he's earned the flake he's getting now, but there was never going to be a clean pullout given the situation. That's not to say that the Biden Admin is without fault, but the cities falling less than two weeks after our forces pull back is...is astonishingly bad. And proves how bad the Afghan government really was.

From what I saw, the Biden team had several things that kept them from being as effective as possible.

• They did NOT make contingency plans if things went tits up. I think Biden and his team expected the Afghan army to hold for 3-6 months.
• I think there was a political motivation to want to believe that the cities would hold out longer, because the admin wanted to put some distance between themselves and the impending disaster. I think that's impart why they delayed trying to get out. And some retard on the team suggested a 9/11 style celebration, as if this could be spun into such a thing.

And this is where they screwed up, 3-6 months *from what point*. Consider the timeline of events. In Afghanistan Taliban offensives tend to start in spring due to several factors, it is known since years.

Afghanistan fighting season - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Taliban, knowing their own turf, timed things perfectly for its needs. They couldn't have had the offensive take Kabul in May, which is when Trump planned the withdrawal, too early in the offensive.
The Taliban had the usual window of mid April-October to get this year's activities decided, nothing more than mop up operations could be done later.
They finished the government in mid August, meaning they needed 4 months of fighting, ironically hitting nicely into the average of 3-6 months estimate, leaving the Taliban about 2 months of reserve for unexpected issues and mop up.
Trump's withdrawal planned to be done by May 1st, even if it dragged on into whole May, would hit 1.5 months at most. The Taliban would not be able to get so far so quickly, there's just no way. Afghan government may have folded a bit earlier in that scenario, but it wouldn't matter much, as Trump's plan gave the Taliban offensive hardly any time to escalate enough to interfere.

Meanwhile, the PR and diplomat led team handling this in the White House didn't give a damn about facts of the ground. They had to get this done, and decided the best way to do it yet stick it to Trump by not following his plan would be to turn it into a big 9/11 PR event, and expect the whole military situation in Afghanistan to adapt itself to the glorious professional administrative state bureaucracy's timeline.
Unfortunately for them, the Taliban never cared about all that and did things on their own timeline, according to own military circumstances.

The US administration woke up with its hand in the shitter in July, with everyone panicking about Taliban controlling a whole lot of countryside, prepping for taking over province capitals, which they did a month later, massive desertions in ANA, and polite suggestions by military people that plans need adjusting because the 9/11 date is most likely not realistic were after a week or two of pleading listened to on 8th July, causing Biden to shift the withdrawal to end of August. So they estimated at that point that the government should last further 2 months, but wouldn't be sure about 3. They were wrong, the government folded in barely over a month from that point. In hindsight the last moment to prevent things from going sideways was there - they should have already started the evacuation as an emergency on July 8 instead of just moving up the timeline. It would be even slower and more disorganized, but on the plus side without the chaos of Taliban takeover going on for the last 2 weeks, the extra 3 weeks would mean that with some luck they would miss Taliban taking Kabul by a week.

 

[Arch Dornan]

GOP Congressman Missing In Afghanistan While on 'Rogue Evacuation Mission': WaPo - Breaking911

United States Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has reportedly gone missing while trying to enter Afghanistan amid the Taliban takeover and chaotic U.S. departure. According to The Washington Post, the Republican Congressman was on a ‘rogue evacuation mission,’ ignoring warnings from the State...

breaking911.com

MIA.

 

[The Original Sixth]

The military doesn't need to be slimmed down, especially with growing concern for what you are saying Russia and CHina to perhaps do next.
The military needs to be readyfor either trheat in every aspect of war.

America has taken the view that Russia is not our problem. At most, we might remain in Poland as a sort of buffer between Russia and Germany. All things considered, both would probably like that.

China is either not going to last long enough to be a threat in the future or they'll try and use what power they have now because they won't have it later. Either way, the US is going to massively outgun them and holds a far superior position.

I am just tired and exhausted of the constant downtrodden people seem to be putting on the military and just the outright thought that all is lost, and that the only way forward Is to take it internally with weapons.

Yeah, people get a lot of weird ideas like that here. But you see it sometimes over on leftist forums. Either they'll grow out of it in a couple years or double down on the insanity.

I am just glad we are out of A-stan, let China have it and screw it up. Maybe them taking A-stan will let them get cocky thinking us leaving there means we wont defend Taiwan. Let them go ahead and try for the thing that would make them have damn near unrestricted access to the south china sea.

China won't try and take Afghanistan. It's far too outside their supply chain, it would pose a threat to the Russians, and overall, China would rather just do business with the people who are mostly in charge and then supply some backup security forces and workers. China's complete lack of a moral compass is a benefit in this sort of situation.

I just want something to be positive about in the military aspect, after the amount of shit we are catching forthings we have no control over, because we decided not to go against orders.

I don't think there's anything wrong with the US military. There's obviously room for improvements and adjustments for what's to come, but the US military is the most trusted institute in the USA for good reason. They're just starting to get shit thrown at them because everything in the USA is political right now. It'll be over in a few years.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Excerpts of call between Joe Biden and Ashraf Ghani July 23

U.S. President Joe Biden and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani spoke by phone July 23. Here are excerpts from that call, based on a transcript and recording reviewed by Reuters:

www.reuters.com

 

[Sobek]

GOP Congressman Missing In Afghanistan While on 'Rogue Evacuation Mission': WaPo - Breaking911

United States Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has reportedly gone missing while trying to enter Afghanistan amid the Taliban takeover and chaotic U.S. departure. According to The Washington Post, the Republican Congressman was on a ‘rogue evacuation mission,’ ignoring warnings from the State...

breaking911.com

MIA.

I swear if this fucker pulls it off dude has a guaranteed ride to Presidency or re-election. Damn dangerous shit to pull though.

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

I don't think there's anything wrong with the US military.

Ya know, other than the political generals, the diversity hiring, the vastly lower standards implemented across the board to allow diversity hiring, half a century of losing wars, oh, and did I mention how some of the generals just happen to end up on a bunch of boards of directors?

 

[The Original Sixth]

GOP Congressman Missing In Afghanistan While on 'Rogue Evacuation Mission': WaPo - Breaking911

United States Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has reportedly gone missing while trying to enter Afghanistan amid the Taliban takeover and chaotic U.S. departure. According to The Washington Post, the Republican Congressman was on a ‘rogue evacuation mission,’ ignoring warnings from the State...

breaking911.com

MIA.

Stupidity is its own reward.

The Taliban were pretty clear they wanted Americans out. You have to be really fucking dumb to waltz back in to try and evacuate more people. It was pretty clear the Taliban were only putting up with it for the sake of appearances and keeping the peace with the US.

And this is where they screwed up, 3-6 months *from what point*. Consider the timeline of events. In Afghanistan Taliban offensives tend to start in spring due to several factors, it is known since years.

Afghanistan fighting season - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Taliban, knowing their own turf, timed things perfectly for its needs. They couldn't have had the offensive take Kabul in May, which is when Trump planned the withdrawal, too early in the offensive.
The Taliban had the usual window of mid April-October to get this year's activities decided, nothing more than mop up operations could be done later.
They finished the government in mid August, meaning they needed 4 months of fighting, ironically hitting nicely into the average of 3-6 months estimate, leaving the Taliban about 2 months of reserve for unexpected issues and mop up.
Trump's withdrawal planned to be done by May 1st, even if it dragged on into whole May, would hit 1.5 months at most. The Taliban would not be able to get so far so quickly, there's just no way. Afghan government may have folded a bit earlier in that scenario, but it wouldn't matter much, as Trump's plan gave the Taliban offensive hardly any time to escalate enough to interfere.

Oh yeah, I figured that was the case. Had the Taliban held off any sort of offensive until September or possibly even late August, they'd be forced to wait another year. No chance of that happening. Trump was right to pull out then. It made the most strategic sense. Pull out before the Taliban gain the momentum to threaten our people.

Meanwhile, the PR and diplomat led team handling this in the White House didn't give a damn about facts of the ground. They had to get this done, and decided the best way to do it yet stick it to Trump by not following his plan would be to turn it into a big 9/11 PR event, and expect the whole military situation in Afghanistan to adapt itself to the glorious professional administrative state bureaucracy's timeline.
Unfortunately for them, the Taliban never cared about all that and did things on their own timeline, according to own military circumstances.

I still expect that the 9/11 PR event was an excuse. They knew they had to do it, they knew that progressives and liberals would be pissed about them leaving (and they were!), so they wanted to wait until the fall, screw the Taliban, and get enough distance between them leaving and the entire thing going up in flames.

The US administration woke up with its hand in the shitter in July, with everyone panicking about Taliban controlling a whole lot of countryside, prepping for taking over province capitals, which they did a month later, massive desertions in ANA, and polite suggestions by military people that plans need adjusting because the 9/11 date is most likely not realistic were after a week or two of pleading listened to on 8th July, causing Biden to shift the withdrawal to end of August. So they estimated at that point that the government should last further 2 months, but wouldn't be sure about 3. They were wrong, the government folded in barely over a month from that point. In hindsight the last moment to prevent things from going sideways was there - they should have already started the evacuation as an emergency on July 8 instead of just moving up the timeline. It would be even slower and more disorganized, but on the plus side without the chaos of Taliban takeover going on for the last 2 weeks, the extra 3 weeks would mean that with some luck they would miss Taliban taking Kabul by a week.

That's a good take. And as I've said, I think the Biden Admin were really hoping that the Afghans would turn it around or they decided to listen to people who had a rosier estimation of the ANA's abilities than anyone in the right mind would believe otherwise. And that led to fuck up after fuck up.

I mean, even after Kabul was standing alone, Biden's team was insisting that the attack would be weeks away. It wasn't until the Taliban was on the way and the Afghan president was flying off with a good chunk of Afghanistan's money that Biden and his team pulled their heads out of their collective ass. I mean, when it was just Kabul left, I would have ordered and immediate evacuation. Get your shit, get out.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Afghan interpreter who saved Biden in Afghanistan is now stranded there

An Afghan interpreter who helped in the 2008 rescue of Joe Biden and two other senators from a valley in Afghanistan was among the thousands left behind.

nypost.com

Help me Mr. President you're my only hope.

 

[Zachowon]

America has taken the view that Russia is not our problem. At most, we might remain in Poland as a sort of buffer between Russia and Germany. All things considered, both would probably like that.

China is either not going to last long enough to be a threat in the future or they'll try and use what power they have now because they won't have it later. Either way, the US is going to massively outgun them and holds a far superior position.



Yeah, people get a lot of weird ideas like that here. But you see it sometimes over on leftist forums. Either they'll grow out of it in a couple years or double down on the insanity.



China won't try and take Afghanistan. It's far too outside their supply chain, it would pose a threat to the Russians, and overall, China would rather just do business with the people who are mostly in charge and then supply some backup security forces and workers. China's complete lack of a moral compass is a benefit in this sort of situation.



I don't think there's anything wrong with the US military. There's obviously room for improvements and adjustments for what's to come, but the US military is the most trusted institute in the USA for good reason. They're just starting to get shit thrown at them because everything in the USA is political right now. It'll be over in a few years.

America may, but the mikitary hasn't. A-stan has according to some made our reputation as a military weaker, showing we will leave allies, and follow our orders so forth nearly coming to blows with our allies for it.

China may fuck up thier ways with A-stan. It's China, it is bound to happen.

I would go more into parts but this isn't the thread for that.

As for the military, because of recent events with people going on the news, social media of people saying they will mow down unarmed people if ordered too, etc etc. People seem to think the military is against one of the political parties and let's the other one run rampet. As well as wondering why the military won't rise up from the inside to push those out, etc etc.

It seems ever since Biden got elected people have turned away from the military as being the most trusted, and have lost that trust

 

[The Original Sixth]

Ya know, other than the political generals, the diversity hiring, the vastly lower standards implemented across the board to allow diversity hiring, half a century of losing wars, oh, and did I mention how some of the generals just happen to end up on a bunch of boards of directors?

You act as though generals only started getting cushy jobs in the past century. As for losing wars? Which wars? We won the War in Iraq and Afghanistan. We lost the occupation, but I don't know why anyone didn't expected that. And after years of propping up shitty governments, we created a power vacuum. And of course we completed our objectives against ISIS in Syria (mostly).

 

[Zachowon]

Ya know, other than the political generals, the diversity hiring, the vastly lower standards implemented across the board to allow diversity hiring, half a century of losing wars, oh, and did I mention how some of the generals just happen to end up on a bunch of boards of directors?

Divisity hiring?

 

[Whitestrake Pelinal]

You act as though generals only started getting cushy jobs in the past century. As for losing wars? Which wars? We won the War in Iraq and Afghanistan. We lost the occupation, but I don't know why anyone expected that. And after years of propping up shitty governments, we created a power vacuum. And of course we completed our objectives against ISIS in Syria (mostly).

We lost Vietnam.
We lost Iraq, our goal was 'dominoes of democracy' and our outcome was 'Islamic State'.
We lost Syria, the Russians will get the pipeline our neoclowns hoped to deny them.
We lost Afghanistan, where we proved to the world that terrorists can attack our territory then fight us out in their own lands.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Stupidity is its own reward.

The Taliban were pretty clear they wanted Americans out. You have to be really fucking dumb to waltz back in to try and evacuate more people. It was pretty clear the Taliban were only putting up with it for the sake of appearances and keeping the peace with the US.

It's not the first time. Didn't a congressman die in the Jonestown massacre?

 

[Bacle]

Why are so many people thinking a multipolar world would be better then a Unipolar one?
What happened the last multiple times we have had multipolarworlds? Well close enough to them? World war 2.

When the US isn't the big dog anymore, who will be there to make sure China, Russia, Iran, and any numerous country that has land claims from taking those claims? The nation holding it? No country is really able to be able to defend against any of the big enemies of ours without US support. At least not long enough to matter.

if the US does not stay the Unipolar power, it will have China be the second, perhaps even replace us. Then you have China going to war with many countries, wiping out populations. Making us reliant on them....

But obviously the fall of A-stan is just the start of a multipolar world where the US and every other country lives happily ever after. Like every time in world history before World War 2....

Because the world existed before the US was a power, and if we fuck up and break up, it'll still keep puttering along anyway.

The US is not the axis upon which human civilization revolves.

Let other people fight their region fights for themselves, using their own blood and treasure instead of ours.

We need to fix things at home more than we need to remain the sole 'superpower' in the world.

*snip*

I would say you are way too optimistic about China collapsing; Xi will not allow that to happen, even if it means reverting to a more...'pure' style of communism and communist tactics to do it.

America may, but the mikitary hasn't. A-stan has according to some made our reputation as a military weaker, showing we will leave allies, and follow our orders so forth nearly coming to blows with our allies for it.

China may fuck up thier ways with A-stan. It's China, it is bound to happen.

I would go more into parts but this isn't the thread for that.

As for the military, because of recent events with people going on the news, social media of people saying they will mow down unarmed people if ordered too, etc etc. People seem to think the military is against one of the political parties and let's the other one run rampet. As well as wondering why the military won't rise up from the inside to push those out, etc etc.

It seems ever since Biden got elected people have turned away from the military as being the most trusted, and have lost that trust

Bingo; very few trust the federal gov anymore (and by extension the military's civie leadership), because of a stolen election. Plus the whole 'extremism standdown' Milley and Austin seeming to treat white supremacists are more threatening than say Iran or N. Korea.

And for some that distrust goes all the way back to Vietnam, with post-9/11 pride being a temporary aberration, and they have instilled that distrust in younger generations as well. Add in stuff like Tuskegee Experiments, MKUltra, all the shit Snowden blew the whistle on, things like what they did to the skipper of the Indianapolis to save the ass's of admirals, and many other occasion where the actions of the US military have inspired anything but trust.

The rather contemptuous way you treat/seem to view the inputs of civies in regard to military matters, and the fact that attitude is not something unique to just you among the military, is also why fewer trust the US military as an institution. Because it shows that the military still seems to view itself as above and better than civies, which breeds resentment for even low level grunts in certain parts of the populace.

There is a reason many Founding Father's did not want a standing army, and the modern US military is doing a good job of showing why.

 

[Sobek]

Take this with a grain of salt since it's unconfirmed as of now but apparently his last know location was in Tbilisi, Georgia (As in the country in the Caucasus) phoning the US Ambassador in Tajikistan asking and negotiating for a huge amount of money to be in Tajikistan to take to Afghanistan.

Whatever this dude is planning is skirting on the knife's edge of badass and insanity.

EDIT: Kind of a source, mentions the Tajikistan thing but not his possible location in Georgia

 

[Arch Dornan]

I would say you are way too optimistic about China collapsing; Xi will not allow that to happen, even if it means reverting to a more...'pure' style of communism and communist tactics to do it.

He's doing it right now cannibalising the big tech companies and fucking up the celebs.

 

[prinCZess]

Whatever this dude is planning is skirting on the knife's edge of badass and insanity.

I would have maybe, with some big ol' heapings of salt, said it closer to the 'badass' end of things...Were the dude any kind of visible 'operator' or even intelligence weenie. Call it the Jack Ryan complimentary assumption of badass-ness.

...Except from what I can tell, he's a run-of-the-mill Oklahoman with some business/construction experience under his belt and his closest relationship to combat of any kind is a 3-win 5-loss record in Mixed Martial Arts.

It's just...like...What?
It has to be one of the most bizarre stories out of all of this yet. Sadly, I have the suspicion it's most likely to end in tragedy.

 

[Bassoe]

a) A lot of you Americans want a "multipolar world", but few both know and are willing to take the consequences of a multipolar world. Think major trade disruptions cutting 20-50% of your GDP, and actual large scale conflicts happening over the world. How many would be totally ok with that? 20%? 30%? Perhaps 40% if you really get sick with stupid wars. Good luck winning elections with these numbers. As things stand, the opinion makers and their target audience struggle to not DO SOMETHING about "women's rights in Afghanistan". Imagine what they would do if a proper war broke out, with millions dead in months, and somewhere more relevant.

Then fucking rebuild vital industries in America, employing American citizens and classify the people who moved them out of American in the first place as the traitors they are.

Why are so many people thinking a multipolar world would be better then a Unipolar one?
What happened the last multiple times we have had multipolarworlds? Well close enough to them? World war 2.

When the US isn't the big dog anymore, who will be there to make sure China, Russia, Iran, and any numerous country that has land claims from taking those claims? The nation holding it? No country is really able to be able to defend against any of the big enemies of ours without US support. At least not long enough to matter.

if the US does not stay the Unipolar power, it will have China be the second, perhaps even replace us. Then you have China going to war with many countries, wiping out populations. Making us reliant on them....

But obviously the fall of A-stan is just the start of a multipolar world where the US and every other country lives happily ever after. Like every time in world history before World War 2....

The Neocon Empire isn't responsible for the replacement of open conflict between Great Powers with proxy wars fought using weaker nations, atomic MAD did that.

The question is, can China reach out and take Taiwan and other Asian nations before it collapses under its own weight?

I always thought something sprouting from China's economic colonialism of Africa would be a more plausible starting point than attempting to invade Taiwan. Outright warfare over Taiwan risks, at a minimum, the destruction of the microchip industries which motivated the invasion in the first place, at a maximum, nuclear warfare with the United States and the apocalypse. Invading Africa, sorry, 'sending in troops to defend Chinese nationals after a Mugabe-ist local goverment tries to escape the Chinese debt trap by murdering everyone and nationalizing the infrastructure they'd built', followed by looting the natural resources seems like it'd be easier and the end result, being able to extract value by looting natural resources and use the infrastructure you'd already been building', more practical.

I would say you are way too optimistic about China collapsing; Xi will not allow that to happen, even if it means reverting to a more...'pure' style of communism and communist tactics to do it.

He's doing it right now cannibalizing the big tech companies and fucking up the celebs.

China got a firsthand demonstration of how much damage treacherous rogue billionaires and 'post-nationalist' ideologues could inflict upon a nation from watching us. Consequentially, their whole authoritarian system is set up around preventing a repeat performance.

 

[Arch Dornan]

China got a firsthand demonstration of how much damage treacherous rogue billionaires and 'post-nationalist' ideologues could inflict upon a nation from watching us. Consequentially, their whole authoritarian system is set up around preventing a repeat performance.

It's also an inner party war. The people he's targeting are related to the old faction that got rich. Truly an incestuous relationship.

 

[Bacle]