My local FLGS is also a kids toy store, and they traditionally do a HUGE amount of business at Christmas. Like most retailers, Black Friday to New Years is how they pay for their year.
They've smelled what's going on in the shipping arena and teh fact that a LOT won't be available on time for the holidays. So...they ordered their Christamas stock in Spring and early Summer. They were not going to rely on their distributors being able to get enough stock for everyone.
I have a feeling we may see a LOT of closures as a result if stores aren't able to get enough stock to meet their needs.
Well, maybe.
First, I expect there to be a panic. People will simply stop getting what they're used to, when they're used to. So you'll probably see a black holiday crunch like you haven't seen in over a decade, with people killing each other for small toys and goods.
Second, you'll see this pour into secondary sources. Maybe you can't afford Jimmy the headphones he wanted, but you can buy him a different set. Expect more expensive variations, less expensive variations, and knock-offs/offbrands to get a huge bump this year.
Third, expect toy companies to try and recoup their losses. This is NOT a new trick. They've done it for decades before. Oversell on one item, sell a secondary item, and then promise a discount on the original. Or take backorders. Whether this works or not with this level of shortage is uncertain, but you can expect that these toy stores will start to buy up any toy they can get their hands on.
Fourth, expect toy prices to skyrocket. So boys, if you gotta get something for someone, you best finish it before the month is out. October at the latest. No telling how quickly word will spread.
Fifth, expect layoffs and cut hours. Companies are going to have to try and make that money back. And raping employee hours is a long-held tradition. If you work retail, be prepared to be the only sod in your department. And if you're in the toy department, carry a gun for when you're left to the wolves.