Morphic Tide
Well-known member
True beyond division for the forseable future, but this is because of the utterly unpredictable nature of the EU shitting itself from this, since they've walked a very fine line in budgets and the UK managing to leave means that other countries who see it as a bad deal (Poland) may make motions to exit themselves. When it comes to division within the country... Literally the whole point was cutting down on that by keeping other people out, and remove the interest conflicts between the UK as a state and the EU as a global power. So any increase in division is purely on the Remoaners and Eurocrats refusing to accept reality.
In the long run, the UK's exit from the EU gives it options. A lot of them. How things shape up five years from now rests on what kind of trade deals they get, and if it's Trump calling the shots there, it can go very well, because Trump hasn't wrung these things out. He's actually tried to make deals, regardless of how little leverage appears to be present on the other side. Has its problems in that it slows things down and there's times when he really should just lay down the Big Stick, but in this case it gives the UK a chance it honestly shouldn't have.
With influence, they still have a mentionable navy, primarily quite usable carriers and the aircraft to go with them, so being unshackled from the EU and closing ranks with the US means they'll be in a position to have some serious geopolitical impact in the form of very, very valuable bodies. Not to mention the geology remains, where they're wonderfully positioned for trade and commerce in general, and there's limits to how much modern technology and politics bypasses this advantage, so the EU has to put up with it in some capacity regardless.
This causes a lot of weirdness in the short term, and that weirdness does stall some things out in the long run, but the big advantage is that the UK can now stand on its own, as is the point of the whole situation. So when the EU collapses, the UK doesn't have to go down with it. Yes, they don't share in the good times, but they gain the ability to respond on their own and more quickly and unilaterally to the hard times, without the issues of the conflicting interests of European states causing responses to deadlock.
In the long run, the UK's exit from the EU gives it options. A lot of them. How things shape up five years from now rests on what kind of trade deals they get, and if it's Trump calling the shots there, it can go very well, because Trump hasn't wrung these things out. He's actually tried to make deals, regardless of how little leverage appears to be present on the other side. Has its problems in that it slows things down and there's times when he really should just lay down the Big Stick, but in this case it gives the UK a chance it honestly shouldn't have.
With influence, they still have a mentionable navy, primarily quite usable carriers and the aircraft to go with them, so being unshackled from the EU and closing ranks with the US means they'll be in a position to have some serious geopolitical impact in the form of very, very valuable bodies. Not to mention the geology remains, where they're wonderfully positioned for trade and commerce in general, and there's limits to how much modern technology and politics bypasses this advantage, so the EU has to put up with it in some capacity regardless.
This causes a lot of weirdness in the short term, and that weirdness does stall some things out in the long run, but the big advantage is that the UK can now stand on its own, as is the point of the whole situation. So when the EU collapses, the UK doesn't have to go down with it. Yes, they don't share in the good times, but they gain the ability to respond on their own and more quickly and unilaterally to the hard times, without the issues of the conflicting interests of European states causing responses to deadlock.
