Maybe very good trade deals?
Still won't be enough to convince them. Even sanctions might not be enough to convince them.
Maybe very good trade deals?
Yeah, because they can totally avoid balking our protection or think any trade deal would protect them.Maybe very good trade deals?
There are higher odds of a Real Life Pink Pokadot Unicorn doing a Tap Dance in the halls of Congress. Than for the Baltic countries voluntarily leaving NATO.If Russia attacks the Baltics tomorrow we should defend the Baltics they are part of NATO. But the baltics are in a bad place and we probably should not have invited them in the first place, and if we can convince them to leave NATO that would be great.
Except slavs don't into the whole 40 virgins if you blow yourself up, thing.If Islamic terrorism can commit multitude terrorist attacks across the west over the past decades under similar circumstances without getting yeeted I doubt it will be any different in this case.
So basically, your opinion is based off Slav bravado over statistics or human nature?Except slavs don't into the whole 40 virgins if you blow yourself up, thing.
Not in our culture, do not confuse with squatting and brewing and drinking unregulated, tax-free moonshine.
And Russian security forces will be far less lenient and not treat any potential terrorists with kit gloves.
My opinion is based off of my personal experiences and of being part of that culture, yeah.So basically, your opinion is based off Slav bravado over statistics or human nature?
China has Russia's back!
My opinion is based off of my personal experiences and of being part of that culture, yeah.
Source: countercurrents, LMAO.Most people who feel Ukrainian will just move to whatever is left of Ukraine, probably a lot of them will be afraid of what the people of Donbass will do in retaliation for their loved ones being murdered by bombardments and shelling.
The parts of Ukraine we are talking about are predominantly culturally and ethnically Russian, Chechnya isn't.Source: countercurrents, LMAO.
That looks more like plain favoritism. The other side is Slavs too. The very fact you speak of "people of Donbass" shows that culture of all things won't prevent there being insurgency.
Historically it didn't either, ask Soviets and Germans.
On the other side of the equation Ukraine is not tiny Chechnya with barely over a million people, Russia will not be able to throw massive economic support at it for decades in the name of rebuilding war damage and keeping discontent down.
If there isn't enough carrot, they will be stuck using a stick to keep things under control, and that won't make the locals happy either.
Yes, but still that doesn't change the fact that if Russia tried to bribe resistance away with economic support, that would be a much bigger cost than doing so in Chechnya due to size difference.The parts of Ukraine we are talking about are predominantly culturally and ethnically Russian, Chechnya isn't.
doubt.jpgHowever in aggregate the people of the Donbass and the culturally Russian parts of Ukraine have suffered far more damage under the Ukrainian regime than the self-styled Ukrainians in that area have suffered under breakaway republic management.
And so would the Ukrainians in case of Russian invasion.Remember, it is the Kievan authorities that are attacking them in what they see as their own land, not the other way around.
If local pro-Russian parts of population were significant and in fighting mood, the post-Maidan government would have felt that since a long time. In its early days they could have made it collapse even. So what you are saying here:The scenario is one of if x then y I was discussing with Rusty, and if you note I am doubtful it will play out.Namely,if the holdouts try terrorism then they will probably be met with much more terror coming from the local pro-Russian parts of the population.
Perhaps, by observation, it applies as much, if not more so to the pro-Russian population than the Ukrainian nationalists.In the end of the day they will probably all get drunk every night and bitch about the government and bemoan the "good old days of Stalin/Ivan the Terrible"
The per-capita GDP of Russia is 2x that of Ukraine, they also have more benefits in the way of cheap energy, and the industrial East of Ukraine has always had muc stronger commercial ties with Russia than the agricultural west.Yes, but still that doesn't change the fact that if Russia tried to bribe resistance away with economic support, that would be a much bigger cost than doing so in Chechnya due to size difference.
There was always a strong pro-Russian sentiment, but they had access to Russian markets and travel to Russia before that, and the likes of Right Sector were not in power.doubt.jpg
When? They broke away almost 2 months after Maidan. Meanwhile Ukraine had pro-Russian governments for many years, and now, at least those in separatist republics, again few years under separatist management, assuming any meaningful amount of self-styled Ukrainians stayed there for some strange reason.
You do realize it takes time for negative sentiment to build up against a newly-elected government, especially since that new government hasn't done anything yet, right?And so would the Ukrainians in case of Russian invasion.
If local pro-Russian parts of population were significant and in fighting mood, the post-Maidan government would have felt that since a long time. In its early days they could have made it collapse even. So what you are saying here:
The whole Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine is another tangent, however it is most realistic that they will only annex areas that will back Russia, aka strongly culturally Russian areas in the East, maybe up to the Dnieper.Perhaps, by observation, it applies as much, if not more so to the pro-Russian population than the Ukrainian nationalists.
And how does that contradict anything i just said? Russia is not even willing to spare the money to potemkin village up Donbass and Luhansk for own political benefit, sticking to frugal financial life support only, while population and territory wise those are tiny compared to what they would be dealing with occupying half of whole Ukraine.The per-capita GDP of Russia is 2x that of Ukraine, they also have more benefits in the way of cheap energy, and the industrial East of Ukraine has always had muc stronger commercial ties with Russia than the agricultural west.
Dude, careful, your belief in Kremlin propaganda is showing here because these are hard numbers you are talking about, which you are wrong about.There was always a strong pro-Russian sentiment, but they had access to Russian markets and travel to Russia before that, and the likes of Right Sector were not in power.
Also, real GDP in Ukraine has shrunk, while that in Russia has continued to grow, even despite the sanctions it will continue to grow, since Russia is concentrating its energy exports development in the Far East, with China and potentially India as long-term gas and commodities clients.
Its been 8 years since Maidan, and almost 3 years since Zelensky, what kind of time are you talking about?You do realize it takes time for negative sentiment to build up against a newly-elected government, especially since that new government hasn't done anything yet, right?
Also, as I said, we are basically going off on a tangent, a series of unrealistic assumptions 3 layers deep.
And here you have the problem. They may think that. And while thinking that, they can make mistakes in guessing which areas will back them more ambitiously than they should have. Just like you are being very optimistic in your guesses. If they make such mistakes, that whole clever plan goes to shit.The whole Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine is another tangent, however it is most realistic that they will only annex areas that will back Russia, aka strongly culturally Russian areas in the East, maybe up to the Dnieper.
So disregarding Americans, Baltics and V4...In any case, no one in Europe aside for a few extreme Russia hateboner-afflicted people thinks there will be an invasion, even the Ukrainians, themselves, don't think there will be one.
Fuck, even France has issued a warning despite Macron's ongoing diplomatic efforts.Many countries, including Australia, Italy, Israel, the Netherlands and Japan have told their citizens to leave Ukraine. Some have also evacuated diplomatic staff and their families.
Putin is not approaching this matter as cold headed as usual for the very reason that he too sees it as "fixing of a historic wrong". He will be biased towards grabbing more rather than less and overestimating the support Russia will get.I doubt Putin will put Russia into a situation of Imperial Overstretch, at most it will be a fixing of an historic wrong perpetrated by the communists and the Russians will be really careful to only annex the parts of Ukraine that have sympathetic populations and/or strategic significance.
Those Russia can easily assimilate and probably even provide something of an economic boost to.
In your opinion, but In your opinion Putin is Literally Hitler.And how does that contradict anything i just said? Russia is not even willing to spare the money to potemkin village up Donbass and Luhansk for own political benefit, sticking to frugal financial life support only, while population and territory wise those are tiny compared to what they would be dealing with occupying half of whole Ukraine.
Dude, careful, your belief in Kremlin propaganda is showing here because these are hard numbers you are talking about, which you are wrong about.
In hard GDP per capita, Ukraine has just barely recovered from the drop after Maidan, while Russia lost over a quarter of its own, holy fuck.
By purchasing power parity both Russia and Ukraine grow.
The travel to Russia part i think is most significant here, but its a double edged sword. Those who consider themselves Russian and get the generously handed out since the war Russian passports have no reason to stay in poorkraine nor separatist banana republics.
Its been 8 years since Maidan, and almost 3 years since Zelensky, what kind of time are you talking about?
And here you have the problem. They may think that. And while thinking that, they can make mistakes in guessing which areas will back them more ambitiously than they should have. Just like you are being very optimistic in your guesses. If they make such mistakes, that whole clever plan goes to shit.
So disregarding Americans, Baltics and V4...
Why is a bunch of EU and uninvolved countries warning citizens to not be there due to the threat?
Ukraine tensions: A dozen nations tell citizens to leave Ukraine
US President Joe Biden again warns Russian leader Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine.www.bbc.com
Fuck, even France has issued a warning despite Macron's ongoing diplomatic efforts.
French Authorities Warn Citizens to Avoid Travelling to Ukraine Due to National Safety Concerns
The French Foreign Ministry has advised French nationals to refrain from non-essential travelling to Ukraine, due to rising tensions with Russian troops in the northern and eastern border of the country. “We have already expressed our concerns about the Russian military build-up on the borders...www.schengenvisainfo.com
Putin is not approaching this matter as cold headed as usual for the very reason that he too sees it as "fixing of a historic wrong". He will be biased towards grabbing more rather than less and overestimating the support Russia will get.
Its disappointing that after so much discussion with me that's the best you can come up with.In your opinion, but In your opinion Putin is Literally Hitler.
Oh, ok, I gave sources, I refuted your claims for what, weeks, and now you are complaining.Its disappointing that after so much discussion with me that's the best you can come up with.
Putin isn't even Literally Assad.
Oh, ok, I gave sources, I refuted your claims for what, weeks, and now you are complaining.
I am simply throwing the towel, by this point we all know that Polish Russophobia is beyond logic or reason, and you can't stop with the "Muh Russia".
I frankly see no reason to try and engage in dialogue with fanatics that have their minds set on something and want a particular outcome.
Also, you should learn what PPP is:
List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
>real GDP in Ukraine has shrunkAlso, real GDP in Ukraine has shrunk, while that in Russia has continued to grow, even despite the sanctions it will continue to grow, since Russia is concentrating its energy exports development in the Far East, with China and potentially India as long-term gas and commodities clients.
>real GDP in Ukraine has shrunk
That's what your refutations look like...
Total GDP, yes, GDP per capita, not so much, has to do with losing people to demographics, immigration, and not controlling a piece of territory containing about 1/10 of their population.GDP in 2013 - 190.5 billion.
GDP in 2020 - 155 billion.
Also, if you take a look at Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2022 a dollar from 2013 is the equivalent to 1.21 USD.
In short, their GDP did shrink.
In that case. the story of total, not per capita GDP for Russia also doesn't look good, contrary to what you claimed:Also, real GDP in Ukraine has shrunk, while that in Russia has continued to grow, even despite the sanctions it will continue to grow, since Russia is concentrating its energy exports development in the Far East, with China and potentially India as long-term gas and commodities clients.
Russia's GDP in 2013: 2.292 trillion
Russia's GDP in 2020: 1.483 trillion
Lol, suddenly you are so very enthusiastic about the EU.If that counts as GDP growth in Russia, no wonder Ukraine wants into the EU