Still won't be enough to convince them. Even sanctions might not be enough to convince them.
Russian-Ukrainian-Polish Eternal Friendship Thread
- Thread starter Husky_Khan
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Still won't be enough to convince them. Even sanctions might not be enough to convince them.
Yeah, because they can totally avoid balking our protection or think any trade deal would protect them.
When you are one of the three weakest nations in the first world neighbored by one of the largest, most powerful nations on earth, which you desperately would rather be dead than give up sovereignty towards, you wouldn't shirk the one thing keeping them at bay. Especially when the Russians are acting increasingly hostile to any non-aligned neighbors that at one point where members of the USSR.
Even if NATO partially collapsed with major powers leaving the Baltics will still move heaven and earth to see the U.S. stay allied to them even if only on paper.
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There are higher odds of a Real Life Pink Pokadot Unicorn doing a Tap Dance in the halls of Congress. Than for the Baltic countries voluntarily leaving NATO.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Except slavs don't into the whole 40 virgins if you blow yourself up, thing.
Not in our culture, do not confuse with squatting and brewing and drinking unregulated, tax-free moonshine.
And Russian security forces will be far less lenient and not treat any potential terrorists with kit gloves.
So basically, your opinion is based off Slav bravado over statistics or human nature?
And again, I never implied that there would be a massed guerilla movement so much as small acts of revenge terrorism here and there and maybe sabotage, which is in line with the very human concept of revenge.
I don't see a world where Putin occupies Ukraine effortlessly without a single casualty or with gulf war style win ratios as possible, certainty not a world where the Ukraine completely and wholly gets absorbed with no economic and domestic ramifications.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
My opinion is based off of my personal experiences and of being part of that culture, yeah.
I grew up during the whole perestroika and Eurointegration thing, I know how demoralizing all that can be, and I know that the Ukrainians have had it worse.
I'd wager that there have been orders of magnitude more bombs and shootings brought about by mob warfare since 1991 than there have been terrorist attacks in the former USSR/Eastern Block.
Young people will just use it as an excuse to emigrate to the west, old people will shrug their shoulders and keep working and trying to make a living, potential hotheads will limit their unhappiness to getting drunk at the local bar.
Most people who feel Ukrainian will just move to whatever is left of Ukraine, probably a lot of them will be afraid of what the people of Donbass will do in retaliation for their loved ones being murdered by bombardments and shelling.
Rather wont USA occupy elsywhere when they take Taiwan.Russians are doing the same,they wont USA focused on Taiwan when they take Ukraine.And China still consider Siberia as their rightful property - which partially is even true..
i hope,that nothing would happen.
Source: countercurrents, LMAO.
That looks more like plain favoritism. The other side is Slavs too. The very fact you speak of "people of Donbass" shows that culture of all things won't prevent there being insurgency.
Historically it didn't either, ask Soviets and Germans.
On the other side of the equation Ukraine is not tiny Chechnya with barely over a million people, Russia will not be able to throw massive economic support at it for decades in the name of rebuilding war damage and keeping discontent down.
If there isn't enough carrot, they will be stuck using a stick to keep things under control, and that won't make the locals happy either.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
The parts of Ukraine we are talking about are predominantly culturally and ethnically Russian, Chechnya isn't.
However in aggregate the people of the Donbass and the culturally Russian parts of Ukraine have suffered far more damage under the Ukrainian regime than the self-styled Ukrainians in that area have suffered under breakaway republic management.
Remember, it is the Kievan authorities that are attacking them in what they see as their own land, not the other way around.
The scenario is one of if x then y I was discussing with Rusty, and if you note I am doubtful it will play out.Namely,if the holdouts try terrorism then they will probably be met with much more terror coming from the local pro-Russian parts of the population.
In the end of the day they will probably all get drunk every night and bitch about the government and bemoan the "good old days of Stalin/Ivan the Terrible"
Yes, but still that doesn't change the fact that if Russia tried to bribe resistance away with economic support, that would be a much bigger cost than doing so in Chechnya due to size difference.
doubt.jpg
When? They broke away almost 2 months after Maidan. Meanwhile Ukraine had pro-Russian governments for many years, and now, at least those in separatist republics, again few years under separatist management, assuming any meaningful amount of self-styled Ukrainians stayed there for some strange reason.
And so would the Ukrainians in case of Russian invasion.
If local pro-Russian parts of population were significant and in fighting mood, the post-Maidan government would have felt that since a long time. In its early days they could have made it collapse even. So what you are saying here:
Perhaps, by observation, it applies as much, if not more so to the pro-Russian population than the Ukrainian nationalists.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
The per-capita GDP of Russia is 2x that of Ukraine, they also have more benefits in the way of cheap energy, and the industrial East of Ukraine has always had muc stronger commercial ties with Russia than the agricultural west.
There was always a strong pro-Russian sentiment, but they had access to Russian markets and travel to Russia before that, and the likes of Right Sector were not in power.
Also, real GDP in Ukraine has shrunk, while that in Russia has continued to grow, even despite the sanctions it will continue to grow, since Russia is concentrating its energy exports development in the Far East, with China and potentially India as long-term gas and commodities clients.
You do realize it takes time for negative sentiment to build up against a newly-elected government, especially since that new government hasn't done anything yet, right?
Also, as I said, we are basically going off on a tangent, a series of unrealistic assumptions 3 layers deep.
The whole Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine is another tangent, however it is most realistic that they will only annex areas that will back Russia, aka strongly culturally Russian areas in the East, maybe up to the Dnieper.
In any case, no one in Europe aside for a few extreme Russia hateboner-afflicted people thinks there will be an invasion, even the Ukrainians, themselves, don't think there will be one.
I doubt Putin will put Russia into a situation of Imperial Overstretch, at most it will be a fixing of an historic wrong perpetrated by the communists and the Russians will be really careful to only annex the parts of Ukraine that have sympathetic populations and/or strategic significance.
Those Russia can easily assimilate and probably even provide something of an economic boost to.
And how does that contradict anything i just said? Russia is not even willing to spare the money to potemkin village up Donbass and Luhansk for own political benefit, sticking to frugal financial life support only, while population and territory wise those are tiny compared to what they would be dealing with occupying half of whole Ukraine.
Dude, careful, your belief in Kremlin propaganda is showing here because these are hard numbers you are talking about, which you are wrong about.
By purchasing power parity both Russia and Ukraine grow.
Its been 8 years since Maidan, and almost 3 years since Zelensky, what kind of time are you talking about?
And here you have the problem. They may think that. And while thinking that, they can make mistakes in guessing which areas will back them more ambitiously than they should have. Just like you are being very optimistic in your guesses. If they make such mistakes, that whole clever plan goes to shit.
So disregarding Americans, Baltics and V4...
Why is a bunch of EU and uninvolved countries warning citizens to not be there due to the threat?
Ukraine tensions: A dozen nations tell citizens to leave Ukraine
US President Joe Biden again warns Russian leader Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine.
www.bbc.com
Fuck, even France has issued a warning despite Macron's ongoing diplomatic efforts.
French Authorities Warn Citizens to Avoid Travelling to Ukraine Due to National Safety Concerns
The French Foreign Ministry has advised French nationals to refrain from non-essential travelling to Ukraine, due to rising tensions with Russian troops in the northern and eastern border of the country. “We have already expressed our concerns about the Russian military build-up on the borders...
www.schengenvisainfo.com
Putin is not approaching this matter as cold headed as usual for the very reason that he too sees it as "fixing of a historic wrong". He will be biased towards grabbing more rather than less and overestimating the support Russia will get.
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Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
In your opinion, but In your opinion Putin is Literally Hitler.And how does that contradict anything i just said? Russia is not even willing to spare the money to potemkin village up Donbass and Luhansk for own political benefit, sticking to frugal financial life support only, while population and territory wise those are tiny compared to what they would be dealing with occupying half of whole Ukraine.
Dude, careful, your belief in Kremlin propaganda is showing here because these are hard numbers you are talking about, which you are wrong about.
In hard GDP per capita, Ukraine has just barely recovered from the drop after Maidan, while Russia lost over a quarter of its own, holy fuck.
By purchasing power parity both Russia and Ukraine grow.
The travel to Russia part i think is most significant here, but its a double edged sword. Those who consider themselves Russian and get the generously handed out since the war Russian passports have no reason to stay in poorkraine nor separatist banana republics.
Its been 8 years since Maidan, and almost 3 years since Zelensky, what kind of time are you talking about?
And here you have the problem. They may think that. And while thinking that, they can make mistakes in guessing which areas will back them more ambitiously than they should have. Just like you are being very optimistic in your guesses. If they make such mistakes, that whole clever plan goes to shit.
So disregarding Americans, Baltics and V4...
Why is a bunch of EU and uninvolved countries warning citizens to not be there due to the threat?
Ukraine tensions: A dozen nations tell citizens to leave Ukraine
US President Joe Biden again warns Russian leader Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine.
Fuck, even France has issued a warning despite Macron's ongoing diplomatic efforts.
French Authorities Warn Citizens to Avoid Travelling to Ukraine Due to National Safety Concerns
The French Foreign Ministry has advised French nationals to refrain from non-essential travelling to Ukraine, due to rising tensions with Russian troops in the northern and eastern border of the country. “We have already expressed our concerns about the Russian military build-up on the borders...
Putin is not approaching this matter as cold headed as usual for the very reason that he too sees it as "fixing of a historic wrong". He will be biased towards grabbing more rather than less and overestimating the support Russia will get.
Its disappointing that after so much discussion with me that's the best you can come up with.
Putin isn't even Literally Assad.
New detail about Russian "false flag" plan prompts U.S. to prepare for worst in Ukraine - NewsBreak
New granular detail about the planning of a false flag attack in Ukraine by Russia was among the intelligence items discussed in the Situation Room on...
www.newsbreakapp.com
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Oh, ok, I gave sources, I refuted your claims for what, weeks, and now you are complaining.
I am simply throwing the towel, by this point we all know that Polish Russophobia is beyond logic or reason, and you can't stop with the "Muh Russia".
I frankly see no reason to try and engage in dialogue with fanatics that have their minds set on something and want a particular outcome.
Also, you should learn what PPP is:
List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Oh, ok, I gave sources, I refuted your claims for what, weeks, and now you are complaining.
I am simply throwing the towel, by this point we all know that Polish Russophobia is beyond logic or reason, and you can't stop with the "Muh Russia".
I frankly see no reason to try and engage in dialogue with fanatics that have their minds set on something and want a particular outcome.
Also, you should learn what PPP is:
List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia
>real GDP in Ukraine has shrunk
That's what your refutations look like...
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
GDP in 2020 - 155 billion.
Also, if you take a look at Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2022 a dollar from 2013 is the equivalent to 1.21 USD.
In short, their GDP did shrink.
Just to stay where they were their GDP would have had to increase to 222.14(using 2021 dollars, which were 1.16 of 1 2013 dollar, and that would be generous)
So yeah, they have lost about 40% of their GDP denominated in dollars.
Sure, your average Ukrainian probably can consume domestically produced stuff for less money now, but energy, raw materials, fertilizers, a lot of stuff they will need to import to produce stuff must be paid for in dollars.
In short, their living standard will and has suffered.
Russia doesn't need to import a lot of raw metarials, it is now a net exporter of food, even.
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Total GDP, yes, GDP per capita, not so much, has to do with losing people to demographics, immigration, and not controlling a piece of territory containing about 1/10 of their population.GDP in 2013 - 190.5 billion.
GDP in 2020 - 155 billion.
Also, if you take a look at Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2022 a dollar from 2013 is the equivalent to 1.21 USD.
In short, their GDP did shrink.
On the same graph you have Russia. 15974 in 2013, 10126 in 2020. Holy shit i can only imagine how salty Putin must be... Is Ukraine really worth it?
So, you prefer total nominal GDP to GDP PPP, ok.
In that case. the story of total, not per capita GDP for Russia also doesn't look good, contrary to what you claimed:
>while that in Russia has continued to grow
GDP (current US$) - Ukraine, Russian Federation | Data
Russia's GDP in 2013: 2.292 trillion
Russia's GDP in 2020: 1.483 trillion
If that counts as GDP growth in Russia, no wonder Ukraine wants into the EU
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Except that the value of the Ruble went down because of sanctions and the Russian Central bank decided to let it float freely instead of pegging it to the dollar.
Oh, and those sanctions are a thing, too.
Contrast that with Ukraine, which has ballooning foreign debt.
There is also one big thing you are forgetting, Russia can produce most of the stuff it needs, from cars to fertilizer, food and energy internally.
They also have the tarade deals with China, where they and the Chinese agreed to trade in their own currencies.
Ukraine can not.
Foreign debt of Russia, 10 years:
EMBED
d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net
Foreign debt of Ukraine, 10 years(Remind me, didn't a bunch of countries decide to write off a large chunk of Ukrainian foreign debt after the Meidan insurrection?):
Ukraine's one is the one that has been going up, Russia has slashed its foreign debt.
Lol, suddenly you are so very enthusiastic about the EU.If that counts as GDP growth in Russia, no wonder Ukraine wants into the EU
That eager to get more snouts into the ever-expanding >60% government and supra-government euro-trough?
That eager to get more grifters that will vote on Brussels' beck and call and tell you that you Poles are muhsoggykneeists and racists and istaphobes for wanting control over your own judiciary?
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