Russian-Ukrainian-Polish Eternal Friendship Thread

[King Arts]

Similar to Canada joining the US?

There is a difference democracies have to look at the people they are bringing in. Canada is more liberal than us Americans so if they come in democrats would get a shot in the arm. The territory would be useful with its resources and space, the people less willing unless we make them 2nd class citizens. Tsar Putin does not have this problem.

 

[Agent23]

Ok so why does it matter how big Russia is? They were big before they conquered Poland yet they still did it. Russia is an imperial power hungry for land and resources.

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that that was back in the 16th century, and that they were led by a Kraut with massive ambitions and because there was a lot of bad fucking blood between Russians and Poles.

Nowadays we have this thing called 'nationalism' which is actually a very, very good blocker of interventionalism.
At most, in the very worst case scenario, Russia will back those bits that want to separate from Ukrane and that were historically Russian and still have strong cultural ties and pro-russian Leanings.

 

[Marduk]

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that that was back in the 16th century, and that they were led by a Kraut with massive ambitions and because there was a lot of bad fucking blood between Russians and Poles.

Nowadays we have this thing called 'nationalism' which is actually a very, very good blocker of interventionalism.
At most, in the very worst case scenario, Russia will back those bits that want to separate from Ukrane and that were historically Russian and still have strong cultural ties and pro-russian Leanings.

Yeah, isolationist nationalism on part of Russia would be great...
Except Putin is not doing that quite clearly.

Yes, nationalism is an issue for any fantasies of Imperial Russian reconquista, but we have already had some hints that there are somewhat effective ways to work around that.
See: Russian interventions in Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine. Those are just the impressively visible tip of the iceberg, the more covert and soft means like economic pressures, corruption, and covert operations are even more important tools of Russia's stealth imperialism, oriented to turn its more nationally troublesome targets into more or less formal satellite states, instead of performing outright annexations, with all the international outrage and domestic trouble these would bring.

 

[Bacle]

Yeah, isolationist nationalism on part of Russia would be great...
Except Putin is not doing that quite clearly.

Yes, nationalism is an issue for any fantasies of Imperial Russian reconquista, but we have already had some hints that there are somewhat effective ways to work around that.
See: Russian interventions in Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine. Those are just the impressively visible tip of the iceberg, the more covert and soft means like economic pressures, corruption, and covert operations are even more important tools of Russia's stealth imperialism, oriented to turn its more nationally troublesome targets into more or less formal satellite states, instead of performing outright annexations, with all the international outrage and domestic trouble these would bring.

CSTO is a thing, and let's not pretend it is so different from NATO, just Russian controlled instead of US controlled.

There may be an invasion in the offing, there may be a lot of misinfo about the situation being pushed by all sides, and there may be nothing to this besides of elaborate posturing to push/pressure negotiations/domestic or international media.

At this point I am only sure of one thing in this whole mess, and that is that neither sides's narrative or leadership is trustworthy.

 

[Marduk]

CSTO is a thing, and let's not pretend it is so different from NATO, just Russian controlled instead of US controlled.

We don't need to pretend.
How many NATO governments called on NATO to send forces to help them put down domestic political unrest towards current government? How many were heeded by the central country of NATO, USA?
CSTO in practice seems like the pessimistic vision of the still fortunately nonexistent EU army.

 

[Bacle]

We don't need to pretend.
How many NATO governments called on NATO to send forces to help them put down domestic political unrest towards current government? How many were heeded by the central country of NATO, USA?
CSTO in practice seems like the pessimistic vision of the still fortunately nonexistent EU army.

You do remember the Greece/Turkey fights over Cypress and the Aegan continental shelves, right?

 

[Marduk]

You do remember the Greece/Turkey fights over Cypress and the Aegan continental shelves, right?

Yup. And those obviously aren't domestic, as they involve hostility between 2 member states.
So the closest CSTO comparison would be Armenia-Azerbaijan wars.
Yet, was there a US military intervention on Cyprus? US Marines landing and putting everyone in their place, anything like that?

 

[Bacle]

Yup. And those obviously aren't domestic, as they involve hostility between 2 member states.
So the closest CSTO comparison would be Armenia-Azerbaijan wars.
Yet, was there a US military intervention on Cyprus? US Marines landing and putting everyone in their place, anything like that?

No, but the Brits did get involved, and are the ones patrolling the ceasefire line on Cypress.

 

[Marduk]

No, but the Brits did get involved, and are the ones patrolling the ceasefire line on Cypress.

Now that's a bad comparison. These forces are there as UN forces, not under NATO.


Note the blue bits.

 

[Bacle]

Now that's a bad comparison. These forces are there as UN forces, not under NATO.


Note the blue bits.

Huh; I remember Brit posters on SB taking about patrolling the ceasefire line, but made it sound like it was a Brit/NATO mission, not UN.

More you know...

 

[WolfBear]

NATO Won’t Put Troops In Ukraine, But Western Foreigners Are Volunteering To Join The Fight Against Russia

Fighters from the US and the European Union are signing up to fight in Ukraine against Russia. “Ukrainians are fighting for what America was fighting for — freedom.”

www.buzzfeednews.com

There is a difference democracies have to look at the people they are bringing in. Canada is more liberal than us Americans so if they come in democrats would get a shot in the arm. The territory would be useful with its resources and space, the people less willing unless we make them 2nd class citizens. Tsar Putin does not have this problem.

Interestingly enough, the US is wealthier per capita than Canada is from a GDP PPP perspective.

 

[History Learner]

If you want to look at oblast-level data, then here's a map of the Russophone percentage of the total population in each Ukrainian oblast in 2001:

But Yeah, Surzhyk is not counted here, I think.

Anyway, Crimea, Sevastopol, and the Donbass are all more than 2/3 Russophone. Kharkiv, Zaporhizhya, and Odessa are all between 40% and 50% Russophone. No other Ukrainian oblast is 1/3 Russophone or more.

Kinda what I mean; if you look at the city/township data it looks like Ukraine is overwhelming Ukrainian speaking and then you look at the specific Russophone data and it dramatically changes pictures. Not counting Surzhyk is also a big red flag:

 

[WolfBear]

Kinda what I mean; if you look at the city/township data it looks like Ukraine is overwhelming Ukrainian speaking and then you look at the specific Russophone data and it dramatically changes pictures. Not counting Surzhyk is also a big red flag:

Even excluding Surzhyk, the maps look different because in some parts of Ukraine, the cities are Russophone while the countryside in Ukrainophone, and the latter is territorially much larger than the former is even though its population density is nowhere near as large.

 

[History Learner]

Even excluding Surzhyk, the maps look different because in some parts of Ukraine, the cities are Russophone while the countryside in Ukrainophone, and the latter is territorially much larger than the former is even though its population density is nowhere near as large.

Which leads to a complicated picture of Ukraine, especially in the context of most of the population being urban.

 

[WolfBear]

Which leads to a complicated picture of Ukraine, especially in the context of most of the population being urban.

That's why I posted the overall data for each Ukrainian oblast above here in black and white. Still, Russia's main room for expansion would be in the southeast and Odessa. Anything beyond that would be done on something other than national self-determination grounds.

Though it's of course worth noting that even in Russophone areas, support for outright joining Russia or even for federalization was not at majority or even at plurality levels even in the Donbass in early 2014:

News - The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine: April 2014

kiis.com.ua

 

[History Learner]

That's why I posted the overall data for each Ukrainian oblast above here in black and white. Still, Russia's main room for expansion would be in the southeast and Odessa. Anything beyond that would be done on something other than national self-determination grounds.

Though it's of course worth noting that even in Russophone areas, support for outright joining Russia or even for federalization was not at majority or even at plurality levels even in the Donbass in early 2014:

News - The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine: April 2014

kiis.com.ua

Outright joining Russia I agree, it's why I've not really advocated for annexation beyond suggesting it in a general sense of possible options initially. Granted, given how much changed from April of 2014 to later that year, it's hard to say. KIIS is behind most of the maps I've posted too.

 

[WolfBear]

Outright joining Russia I agree, it's why I've not really advocated for annexation beyond suggesting it in a general sense of possible options initially. Granted, given how much changed from April of 2014 to later that year, it's hard to say. KIIS is behind most of the maps I've posted too.

FWIW, I think that most of Ukraine became more anti-Russian in the years after 2014 while the Donbass, or at least the separatist-controlled parts of it, became more pro-Russian, perhaps in part due to the exodus of pro-Western Donbassers. Though having Ukraine bomb the Donbass probably didn't help matters either.

Personally, I think that Russia's fear of NATO putting missiles in Ukraine is WAY overblown. I think that if NATO wanted to put missiles close to Russia, it could have already done this in the Baltic countries. Still, I suppose that Russia wants to avoid looking weak and submissive or whatever. The Baltics can be easily cut off through Belarus, after all. A NATO Ukraine might be harder to dislodge if it happens. Might as well act now while Russia still can, right?

 

[PsihoKekec]

Huh; I remember Brit posters on SB taking about patrolling the ceasefire line, but made it sound like it was a Brit/NATO mission, not UN.

More you know...

It's complicated, British have a base there since the end of WWI, part of the perimeter is on the ceasefire line and they patrol perimeter as British army, but other parts of ceasefire line they patrol when they are part of UN peacekeeping mission.

 

[Bacle]

It's complicated, British have a base there since the end of WWI, part of the perimeter is on the ceasefire line and they patrol perimeter as British army, but other parts of ceasefire line they patrol when they are part of UN peacekeeping mission.

Ah, ok, that makes sense.

Anyway, insight on why parts of DC are so insistent on trying to now discredit the Ukrainian pres and assume they understand the situation better than people on the ground.


The DC elite literally think they know best how to run the whole world, and want to be in a position to do so.

 

[Batrix2070]

The DC elite literally think they know best how to run the whole world, and want to be in a position to do so.

I have a question for a hundred points, did they ever think they might not be right?