Russian-Ukrainian-Polish Eternal Friendship Thread

Huh, though Kiev was farther west and not on the river.

Do you have a map of the current conflict lines to over lay on that.

Also, where are the edges of the Chernobyl exclusion zone; need to factor administering that into any partition plan.

Maybe have the Dnieper be the border up to the where it starts heading west, then sent the border north from that.

Russia gets a buffer and landbridge to Crimea, Ukraine keeps access to the Black Sea.

The LPR and DPR are the two provinces in the Southeast directly bordering Russia, next to the Black Sea. Chernobyl is almost on the border with Belarus, directly North-ish of Ukraine (the circle on the Dnieper). Personally, I think that map I posted earlier is good deal; Ukraine losses access to the Black Sea, but it removes all ethnic Russians, Russian speakers and Pro-Russian Ukrainians and leaves them uncontested control over Kiev in return too.
 
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The LPR and DPR are the two provinces in the Southeast directly bordering Russia, next to the Black Sea. Chernobyl is almost on the border with Belarus, directly North-ish of Ukraine (the circle on the Dnieper). Personally, I think that map I posted earlier is good deal; Ukraine losses access to the Black Sea, but it removes all ethnic Russians, Russian speakers and Pro-Russian Ukrainians and leaves them uncontested control over Kiev in return too.
Losing access to the Black Sea and the international trade it represents is not reasonable for any realistic partition plan; Kiev would never go for it, as they then lose any ports for their navy.

My plan allows Kiev to still access the Black Sea, gives Russia a land bridge to Crimea, and puts most of the areas of active fighting in the eastern nation.

No sane country that owns a navy will give up it's only ports and allow itself to become landlocked.
 
Losing access to the Black Sea and the international trade it represents is not reasonable for any realistic partition plan; Kiev would never go for it, as they then lose any ports for their navy.

My plan allows Kiev to still access the Black Sea, gives Russia a land bridge to Crimea, and puts most of the areas of active fighting in the eastern nation.

No sane country that owns a navy will give up it's only ports and allow itself to become landlocked.

Most of Ukraine's trade is conduced via overland, so losing access to the Black Sea would have minimal economic impact and Ukraine already lost its main port in 2014 anyway when Russia took Crimea (along with, IIRC, most of its Navy). In the context of already talking about losing roughly half the nation, it's a relatively small price but must be understood in the context of the situation; would Ukraine rather the end result be a Russian invasion with all that implies?

Personally, this is one reason I full endorse mass immigration of Ukrainians to the United States or, even better, other Eastern European nations like Poland or Hungary.
 
Nice cherry-picking where the maps are concerned.

First of all, Russia is the successor state of what was once called KIEVAN RUS, because that principality was centered around, you guessed it, KIEV.In the Xth century.Lots and lots and lots of ground you are not covering.
Yeah, yeah, Russia also calls itself the successor of Rome. Gauls, you better watch out.
Ukrainians and Belarussians also call Kievan Rus their ancestors.
But we're going a millenium in the past, and such national distinctions didn't exist then.

Russia has a legitimate historic claim to the territory of modern-day Ukraine, there was never a 'Ukraine' prior to the aftermath of WWI,
But by reaching this far in history, Poland, Turkey, Lithuania, and whoever you consider descendants of Cumans also have one, as these other groups in sum held it (especially the southern and the western chunks) for more time than Russia/Kievan Rus.

The important part is that the local Slavic population now is not exactly crazy about being ruled by Moscow, which at the time Kievan Rus held most of current day Ukraine was just some small town in process of becoming a city.
Russians showing up in places and claiming them because they used to be owned by Kievan Rus for some time is akin to USA declaring themselves the successors of British Empire and claiming any places that used to belong to British Empire as their rightful land. Starting with London.
and even then the Bolsheviks systematically expanded the Ukrainian SSR because they thought that there were too many rich kulaks and not nearly enough factory workers, hence the higher industrialization and Russian cultural ties and ethnically-Russian population there that wants nothing to do with the western Ukrainians, who still have this weird idea that the Stalin-era famines were supposed to target them, personally, as an ethnic group, which is not technically true, since people all over the USSR died because of moronic collectivization policies.

Crimea was actually an autonomous republic until Nikita Khruschev, an Ukrainian, decided to give it to he Ukrainian SSR as a gift.
Lets not forget that besides famines and terror there was also massive, not necessarily voluntary internal migration of people (especially the unruly about Russian governorship kind) out of Ukraine (and many other places) to Central Asia and Siberia, combined with importation of non-unruly people from Russia. The selection of both groups obviously was not chosen to be ethnically neutral to the local demographics.
Oh, it's not hard to follow at all, which makes me feel qualified to say you're full of it on this. Nowhere in the exchange did you attack the concept of providing troops in general, you only disagreed on Zachowan's particular interpretation and even now it's notable you're not ruling it out directly.
What is your malfunction?
Do you not understand what discussing a hypothetical is?
Or are you just whining at me for not sufficiently marketing for your cause while doing so (sorry, i feel no particular duty to argue for your line, ever).
Your original statement, which you helpfully provided, was that no one was talking about deploying troops.....until I quoted you and Zachowan doing exactly that in an extended dialogue.


You lied, let's be honest here.
Lets be honest here, you didn't spend 10 second thinking about this silly sub-argument about personal statements and in turn have completely beclowned yourself.
Because the original statement is conveniently marked as post number 311.
While my discussion with Zach about hypothetical military intervention begins at post 317.
Yeah, damn me and my time traveling lies.

Bingo in that you realize how schizophrenic your argument remains? In that case, thank you; it's about time you realize it makes no sense to talk about a long term NATO victory when you're claiming there will be no NATO to win said victory. It's a contradictory scenario entirely.
The fuck i did just say?
USA cannot simultanously wash its hands off the conflict and provide aid other than military intervention to Ukraine. If it does the latter, allies cannot say USA didn't give a shit about a crisis in their region, even if in the end it doesn't give Ukraine victory.
That's the secret to NATO existing even if Russia controls more parts of Ukraine.

No, you're just engaging in a pretty blatant changing of the goalposts because this has nothing to do whatsoever with what the original discussion was. If you recall, this all started because you elected to respond to a post I made in general about the United States should not doing anything at all and refrain from involvement in the FSU. You then responded to that and now we have got the point you're citing an argument I never made nor agree with even to change the fundamentals of this dialogue because you are losing in it.
No one cares. What are you going on about right now? Do you stick by your argument that United States should not doing anything at all and refrain from involvement in the FSU?


That's a long winded way of saying you're not going to look it up because to become educated on it would invalidate entirely what you are claiming. In particular, there is no "we" to be had in agreement on anything because what you are trying to manufacture an agreement on I do not agree with. Your claims show to me, and anyone who has read on the subjects of both, that you do not what you are talking about; case in point being your belief the U.S. ever cut off the aid spigot to Afghanistan.

When you actually compare Chechnya to Afghanistan with "hard data" you can find on Google in less than a minute, the idea it's some simmering hot bed of resistance comparable at all completely disappears. There's 1.3 million Chechens, and the extent of Russian subsidies is ~$780 Million USD; automatically you see that, even if we taken as factual the only thing keeping a lid on resistance is aid payments, this is completely and utterly sustainable and nowhere close to what the U.S. was doing in Afghanistan. More importantly however, when you look at military metrics you see a more stark difference; in that 2018 year you cited as a sign of continued resistance, why did you leave out citing that literally only 10 people died for the entire year? If that's a mark of insurgency for you, then your own Poland must positively be a death trap.
Russia is not USA, and as such its financial wastefulness cannot be measured by the scale of US economy. It has to be measures by the scale of Russian economy.
According to this:
Late in Afghan War USA was spending about 50 billion per year on it. Which is about 0.25% of 20+ trillion USD US GDP from the same time.
Meanwhile, by the measure of Russian economy, the paltry 0.78 billion USD it spends on Chechnya constitute 0.05% of 1.65 trillion USD Russian economy.
However, wait a minute, don't celebrate yet...
As you have conveniently noticed, Afghanistan is a much larger place with many more people than Chechnya. The latter, with 1.3 million people and area of 17k sq km, is far smaller than Afghanistan's 40 million population and 652k sq km area. By factors of 30 and 38 respectively.
So long story short, USA has spent 5 times larger part of its GDP than Russia, to control a territory 38 times bigger with a population 30 times larger. Talk about sustainability... And that's without even getting how much cheaper labor is in Russia than in USA, and how much it costs to move everything to the other side of the globe.
If Afghanistan was as small as Chechnya, maintaining population proportional spending USA would be using merely 0.008% of its GDP.
 
Most of Ukraine's trade is conduced via overland, so losing access to the Black Sea would have minimal economic impact and Ukraine already lost its main port in 2014 anyway when Russia took Crimea (along with, IIRC, most of its Navy). In the context of already talking about losing roughly half the nation, it's a relatively small price but must be understood in the context of the situation; would Ukraine rather the end result be a Russian invasion with all that implies?

Personally, this is one reason I full endorse mass immigration of Ukrainians to the United States or, even better, other Eastern European nations like Poland or Hungary.
There is a difference between losing a major port, and becoming completely landlocked.

New ports can be built, and your proposal is just giving Moscow literally everything they want while pretending that it is reasonable to all sides.

If I was in Kiev, I would not agree to any partition deal that removes access to the sea and maritime trade opportunities, no matter how much overland trade I did.

This idea is about find a compromise neither side likes, bit could learn to live with.
 
There is a difference between losing a major port, and becoming completely landlocked.

New ports can be built, and your proposal is just giving Moscow literally everything they want while pretending that it is reasonable to all sides.

If I was in Kiev, I would not agree to any partition deal that removes access to the sea and maritime trade opportunities, no matter how much overland trade I did.

This idea is about find a compromise neither side likes, bit could learn to live with.

Moscow quite obviously wants all of Ukraine and ideally in the Union State of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The proposal here would leave the majority of Ukraine's population and several of its major cities outside of Russian control, with sufficient landmass to have the lump Ukraine serve as an effective buffer for the rest of Europe. Likewise, it would not only retain the capitol of Kiev-with all that entails for its economic value and influence on the Dnieper trade, it would also have an ethnically cohesive state. The division line you propose would leave significant Russian speaking minorities in Ukraine, leaving the issue over all unresolved and gives Moscow the opportunity to later revive the dispute. This division would forever settle the issue, however.

Would it suck for Ukraine? Yeah, and I say this as someone who has a good friend in Sumy right now I'm deeply concerned about, but it would resolve the fundamental issues for both Europe and Russia and thus likely create lasting peace. That should be the goal, and I think we also to take into account the power balances at play here with the situation.
 
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I know that, but the Biden connections to Ukraine change the situation.

Remember a phone call with the head of Ukraine and even mentioning Biden/Burinsma caused the First Impeachment.

Except that was over Trump allegedly trying to pressure Ukraine to help dig up dirt on his (then likely) opponent in the 2020 election. It was a pretty weak excuse, I won’t deny that, but you’re obsessing over the Burisma thing like it’s the only reason anyone in the U.S. government cares about Ukraine. That’s simply not true; anyone with even a basic understanding of geopolitics knows that it’s due to several other factors

Yes, I know the CV being there is, that's expected.

The Ohio class is a very different matter.

I think the last time they had one there was under Trump when he struck Assad.

It’s called “saber-rattling” and is something in geopolitics that happens all the damn time. If we wanted to actually use it, we wouldn’t have announced it beforehand. It’s a submarine, it’s designed to sneak in there.

I don't know the 'truth' of Maidan, but everything I've seen about it since it happened...there was discontent at home with the pres at the time, and as I said I was cheering on the Maidan when it happened.

The whole MH17 thing also complicated it in a massive way, and created justified anger in the West; that was a massive fuck up on Russia/the rebels side that didn't have anything to do with the conflict.

I thought the new gov was going to be a huge change in the course of the nation for the better for a long time after Maidan, but now it just looks like another civil war we decided we needed to stick our dick in, with the added bonus of this time being able to directly fuck with what used to be part of the Russia heartland. It's the same folly over lines on a map written without the consent of the people there, this time under Gorbachev, that has screwed things up for Ukraine. Plus the whole radioactive fuckup that was Chernobyl and showed the flaws in the USSRs way of operating, which I get Ukraine has legit beef with Russia about, plus the whole Holomodor issue.

Since then, with what the Ukraine situation has turned into...it looks like another US/Allied IC backed or supported event, even if it had an organic base.

This may be difficult to believe, but not everything that happens that the U.S. likes to see happen is automatically a CIA-backed coup. In fact their involvement in stuff like that is kind of overstated.

Everything else that has happened since the Wu Flu got out, the Impeachment of Trump over that phone call, EPSTEIN AND MAXWELL, and the way the exit from Afghanistan was handled...the trust in the institutions is gone and Zach's warmongering while being in the IC, plus what I'm seeing from some neocon/neolib voices about Ukraine...I think there is a faction trying to get Biden to engage Russia in combat/war directly in/over Ukraine, and that scares me deeply. Ukraine is not in NATO, as you've said, and thus article 5 doesn't apply. However we also have posters like Marduk, who seem to want to go all Winged Hussars on the situation, or for the US to do it in the stead as part of NATO.

Many of you mistake me for being pro-Putin/Kremlin, when in reality I'm tired of pretending the shit of both doesn't stink in this situation. If I was pro-Kremlin, I'd want US troops out of Poland and the Baltics and for us to step selling weapons to Keiv; I want neither.

Zach just keeps putting words in my mouth and exaggerating what I say, which is part of the problem here.

Zachowon may just be trying to rile you and others up, I don’t know him in person so I can’t say anything on that front. But as Marduk has pointed out, he’s not “all Winged Hussars” as you point out.

Now, the way that the stuff that’s caused you to doubt the world…well, I don’t know what to tell you other than, what goes on behind closed doors is much dumber than it being some grand conspiracy. COVID, as one example, is almost certainly because EcoHealth and NIH didn’t want it getting out that they’d used taxpayer dollars to fund research in China because they wanted to see if it was possible to fuck around with lethal viruses and it had been banned for safety reasons in the U.S. Not over some grand conspiracy to overthrow the world, but because a handful of scientists and bureaucrats believed “Nothing can go wrong because US R SMRT!” And then COVID got loose and proved, no, they really aren’t. That’s it: a bunch of idiots concerned about getting fired and basically cashiered from their careers for the rest of their lives. Trump…well, that was just a convenient excuse and everyone knew it. Epstein…don’t know, don’t give a shit because what he did has jack and shit to do with world affairs, or at least anything of note, and certainly nothing that affects me personally.

Losing access to the Black Sea and the international trade it represents is not reasonable for any realistic partition plan; Kiev would never go for it, as they then lose any ports for their navy.

My plan allows Kiev to still access the Black Sea, gives Russia a land bridge to Crimea, and puts most of the areas of active fighting in the eastern nation.

No sane country that owns a navy will give up it's only ports and allow itself to become landlocked.

“Tell me you have no idea how geopolitics or nationalism actually work, without actually telling me you have no idea how geopolitics or nationalism actually work.”

Seriously.

No sane country allows itself to be partitioned unless it’s at the point of a gun and they’ve lost a war, and even then it’s never a permanent solution*. The fact that you’re even suggesting this as a realistic option completely ignores the fact that the people of eastern Ukraine don’t see their homes as part of Russia proper. Nor is this the first time Russia has lied its ass off to try and seize at least part of Ukraine. That fine tradition goes back to 1654. The Ukrainians were, shall we say, less than impressed, to say nothing of being less than happy with Russia’s antics.

More importantly, partition only leads to a lasting enmity that eventually explodes down the line. Nobody in any position of power considers it an option not because they’re stupid, but because they and the thousands of advisors they have know damn well that it’s a non-starter, just as it has been throughout human history. Seriously. Does “The Sudetenland” ring any bells? Or “Alsace-Lorraine”? Or, hell, the time then-Senator Biden (back when he chaired the Foreign Relations Committee in 2007-2008) suggested the best way to solve the sectarian conflicts in Iraq was to partition it…and everyone and their brother promptly called him out (rightly) for talking out of his ass.

*-It should be noted that the only current example of partition is Korea, and that’s because the Korean War is actually still going on. The 1953 armistice was only so the actual shooting would stop, but there’s been no formal agreement to permanently divide North and South into different countries. Nor does either country formally recognize the other -instead, they view the other government as basically “squatters on their turf they can’t dislodge.”
 
After the Azeri-Armenian War as well, it seems like Turkish TB-2 Drone Strike is going to be the new war footage of choice for the near future if this Donbass stuff keeps up.



It will join the fine tradition of other random videos, like the TOW Missiles Blowing Up Armored Vehicles in Syria footage we all used to love and fondly remember, or the Predator launched Hellfire missile drone footage that almost seems like classical entertainment nowadays.
 
According to CNN sources (So exercise caution), the U.S. Embassy is to begin evacuating all non-essential personnel and families by early next week. This correlates pretty well with the timing of the Belarus-Russian exercises and the weather forecast is predicting sub freezing temperatures; Biden has been using that as a metric publicly and not without reason, as it makes it hard for the Ukrainians to entrench. At this point, I'm pretty well convinced the clock is ticking and the decision point will be reached within the next two weeks.

God help us all if this spirals out of control.
 


Super lame. Can't they just wait for the next election cycle?

Like there's going to be other elections and seven years of low key insurgency War are going to cost a lot less blood and treasure in months then the most optimistic scenarios that an Invasion of Ukraine could result in.

Even the most rabid Zachowons here have only been so hawkish in they'd defend the current status quo AFAIK. Not actually anything offensive beyond that. Invasion is such a lame overreaction that could spiral out of control.
 
So by your logic, Ukraine needs to choose between USA exterminating most of their population and herding the survivors into reservations or Russia killing or deporting half their rural population.
That is one of the most bullshit examples of a false dichotomy I've ever seen.
 
The IC community does a thankless job and gets treated as everyone’s favorite whipping boy because it’s politically convenient. They know they’re not allowed to speak off the cuff (usually) so they always make perfect strawmen. Before this they would have been blaming “the Zionist Jewish conspiracy” or some other nonsense.
I mean... I don't much care for what they've been doing in the US...

I wasn’t aware it was the 1930s and the Soviets were around?
It will never stop being ironic for someone with your username to so willfully ignore the lessons if history.

Many of you mistake me for being pro-Putin/Kremlin, when in reality I'm tired of pretending the shit of both doesn't stink in this situation. If I was pro-Kremlin, I'd want US troops out of Poland and the Baltics and for us to step selling weapons to Keiv; I want neither.

Zach just keeps putting words in my mouth and exaggerating what I say, which is part of the problem here.
My impressions are colored entirely by what you've said, and frankly a lot of what you've said has not only been very sympathetic to Putin/the Kremlin, but you seem to be making the argument that since you think the US has interfered in Ukraine's government, Russia should be allowed to conquer Ukraine. Maybe that isn't what you intended, but that's what I've gotten out of it. Kind of like how while you obsess over the US interfering/propagandizing/etc, it doesn't seem to occur to you that Russia could be doing so themselves - you seem very willing to take them entirely at face value, which is a large part of why you're coming off as pro-Putin/the Kremlin. And you even seem very willing to offer up at least part of Ukraine to appease Putin, as if that's going to solve anything anymore than giving Hitler the Sudetenland stopped him from taking over the rest of Czechoslovakia. While you seem to have Germany in mind, do I really have to remind you of how horrible that situation was for the German people?
 
It will never stop being ironic for someone with your username to so willfully ignore the lessons if history.

Then by all means, oh wise master of all, tell us what relevancy a Soviet crime in the 1930s has to do with the situation today almost 90 years after the fact when the USSR has been a dead letter for 30 years and Stalin for about 70.
 
My impressions are colored entirely by what you've said, and frankly a lot of what you've said has not only been very sympathetic to Putin/the Kremlin, but you seem to be making the argument that since you think the US has interfered in Ukraine's government, Russia should be allowed to conquer Ukraine. Maybe that isn't what you intended, but that's what I've gotten out of it. Kind of like how while you obsess over the US interfering/propagandizing/etc, it doesn't seem to occur to you that Russia could be doing so themselves - you seem very willing to take them entirely at face value, which is a large part of why you're coming off as pro-Putin/the Kremlin. And you even seem very willing to offer up at least part of Ukraine to appease Putin, as if that's going to solve anything anymore than giving Hitler the Sudetenland stopped him from taking over the rest of Czechoslovakia. While you seem to have Germany in mind, do I really have to remind you of how horrible that situation was for the German people?
I do not take everything Russia says at face value, but I am not someone who sees Russia as an enemy to crush like many others, and I am aware of the historical issues around the whole region that make it way more complicated than either side is will to admit.

Also, if I was as pro-Krelim as you and others claim, I wouldn't be for keeping troops in the Baltics, Poland, and the Balkan, nor would I support continuing to sell weapons to Kiev.

It's like anything but fervent anti-Russian rhetoric gets slapped with the 'pro-Kremlin' label.
 
Because we tried to take it first, and in the process destroyed any illusion of Ukraine being a sovereign nation. They're just a pawn now, in global game of Realpolitik, played by powers far greater than themselves; and quite frankly? They'd be no worse off with the Russians, then they have been with us; and probably better, in some ways.
So Russia should just be allowed to take over Ukraine?
 
It's like anything but fervent anti-Russian rhetoric gets slapped with the 'pro-Kremlin' label.

It's textbook "point and stutter" argumentation. I find it funny the same people who spent four years justifiably laughing at Russiagate suddenly take, without any skepticism, the media and political narrative and often, without any consideration, become nothing more than the Neocons of yesteryear after absorbing the former.
 
Then by all means, oh wise master of all, tell us what relevancy a Soviet crime in the 1930s has to do with the situation today almost 90 years after the fact when the USSR has been a dead letter for 30 years and Stalin for about 70.
:rolleyes: First off, that there is already history there, which you seem to want to just ignore. Also, the fact that white history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, it can often rhyme - Russia has made up reason in the past for the wholesale slaughter of the people whose countries they conquer, including in Ukraine itself, so it has an established track record. Noting would stop them from doing something similar again, even if it doesn't take the form of starving landowners to death for the crime of owning land and having too much money. Russia taking over a country isn't going to be pretty no matter what happens, so keep that in mind while you draw maps to split up other people's countries to just give to Russia on a platter.
 
:rolleyes: First off, that there is already history there, which you seem to want to just ignore. Also, the fact that white history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, it can often rhyme - Russia has made up reason in the past for the wholesale slaughter of the people whose countries they conquer, including in Ukraine itself, so it has an established track record. Noting would stop them from doing something similar again, even if it doesn't take the form of starving landowners to death for the crime of owning land and having too much money. Russia taking over a country isn't going to be pretty no matter what happens, so keep that in mind while you draw maps to split up other people's countries to just give to Russia on a platter.

For someone who just attacked me for having "no real argument", it's bafflingly you never stopped to consider your argument here solely consists of "just because" reasoning. Nothing would stop them you say....except for the fact Stalin has been dead for closer to a century now, the CCCP is equally dead for 30 years now and the Russian Federation did nothing of the sort you claimed in Chechnya or in Crimean after 2014. It's weird how none of Russia's ardent Nationalists claim to want to do this, how it's not reflected in any polling of Russians either and how there is no indication whatsoever the Russian Government is interested in doing so.

You're right, History can rhyme, but it also has to be based in verifiable fact with evidence to even be counted as History at all, which is something you need to stop and consider when making this outlandish claims. It's no different at all from the same type of shit that got us into Iraq, which leads me to suspect you're too young to really remember those times.
 

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