Tryglaw
Well-known member
As many "democratically appointed" presidents for life found out much to their chagrin...
Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread
- Thread starter GoldRanger
- Start date
As many "democratically appointed" presidents for life found out much to their chagrin...
Occasionally. I can't find an instance of the top of my head, but probably a few serial killers. Here's a link that references that it happens, without telling when:
Death Sentences in the United States Since 1973
The Death Penalty Information Center is a non-profit organization serving the media and the public with analysis and information about capital punishment.…
EDIT: Found this guy:
Joseph Edward Duncan - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
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It means that the gulf states will have to form more direct partnerships with patron nations to protect them, countries capable of doing this?
France, UK and Japan and that is pretty much it.
Floridaman
Well-known member
India as well, if only due to being the first stop on the way out of the gulf.
also the conflict between Sunni and Shia will heat up, as the us isn’t there to make them play nice and the “civility“ we have seen in the Middle East for the past few decades will end,
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You guys forget the new UAE/Israel treaty that Oman and others have already jumped onboard with.
The ME is going to have a self-contained (mostly) anti-Iran power block soon, and the US is not going to drop support for Israel just because we won't let NATO freeriders skate anymore.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
If the US mostly pulls out, what'll likely happen is either a sustained proxy war between Iran and everyone else, or a hot war that Iran loses.
If the war goes hot, general societal collapse across most of the ME is fairly likely afterwards, though by no means certain. Basically, every single nation will start having the 'Strongman imposes order. Strongman dies, and either a new Strongman comes in, or chaos ensues for some time.'
Oman and the UAE might get exempted from this, because outside powers are interested in Hormuz, but as long as the fighting mostly takes place away from the actual oil fields, international powers won't much care.
Of course, it's also possible that the current mood of 'colonialism bad!' ends, and someone just rolls in to take over big chunks of the oil industry once and for all. Of course, there aren't really many contenders able to do that right now, because the USA won't let China, Russia lacks the power to go that far, and outside of that maybe an ascending India would have the capacity?
So yeah, if US-enforced semi-stability ends, things probably go back to various forms of muslims aggressively killing each other, and Israel finally having the freedom to do what it wants to protect itself.
If the war goes hot, general societal collapse across most of the ME is fairly likely afterwards, though by no means certain. Basically, every single nation will start having the 'Strongman imposes order. Strongman dies, and either a new Strongman comes in, or chaos ensues for some time.'
Oman and the UAE might get exempted from this, because outside powers are interested in Hormuz, but as long as the fighting mostly takes place away from the actual oil fields, international powers won't much care.
Of course, it's also possible that the current mood of 'colonialism bad!' ends, and someone just rolls in to take over big chunks of the oil industry once and for all. Of course, there aren't really many contenders able to do that right now, because the USA won't let China, Russia lacks the power to go that far, and outside of that maybe an ascending India would have the capacity?
So yeah, if US-enforced semi-stability ends, things probably go back to various forms of muslims aggressively killing each other, and Israel finally having the freedom to do what it wants to protect itself.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
If they actually had the freedom to do what they want do you expect Israeli puppet states?
I think the Israelic agencies would rather make sure the nations around them, save the least aggressive towards them, collapse back into warring clans.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
What if they have resources Israel could get?
Make deals with the clan that owns the land? If the state ignores the goverment in favor of this or that group for negotiations, it might delegitimze the rulers.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
I think they'd force the Palestinians into Jordan, Egypt, etc, then build the 'biggest most beautiful wall' you've ever seen around their whole damn country.
If things around them continue to have deteriorated after a generation or more, they might expand out into surrounding territory, but for the time being they don't actually need to do so.
The sinai pensula is actually larger then Israel proper and is perfectly capable of hosting the entire palastinian population, and if their willing to help work on the regions infostructor they would be able to benefit from having access to med and indian ocean trade.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Ah to be still not as connected to the entire world without a world police.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
...I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here?
Or you here.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
I'm simply saying that the freedom for Israel to try to pull shit that the whole world will instantly jump down on would only work the same for any other country with territorial aspirations is when global communication isn't as strong.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
There've been plenty of brushfire wars in Africa that people cared either little or not at all about. There's also been various internal conflicts in places like Burma that people tend to care jack shit about.
I could also reference Russia and encroachment on Ukraine, but Russia is something of an exception, even if its economy is completely shot, it's still got the only military industry that remotely rivals the US.
Regarding smaller nations, it really is just Israel that is expected to conduct itself like sainted angels at all times.
They have a silver bullet: "This campaign is necessary for the continued survival of Israel. What are you, a nation of antisemites?" Since the relevant nations are desperate to avoid any socially unacceptable labels, that should do the trick. /jk
Except anti-Semi... errr Zionism, yeah, that, anti-Zionism, is a critical tenet of intersectionalism. Which the west is in love with. The survival of Israel is not a good outcome to those people.
Because of freaking course it is. Marx should've died in some backallee rather than being supported by his rich friend...