Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

[GoldRanger]

This thread will be dedicated to news about the semi-cold war between Israel and Iran, and general discussion about the enmity between the two countries.

For a start:

Iran crisis: US and Israel heading towards 'military strikes'

ISRAEL and US are heading towards an outbreak of war with Iran, according to a leading US official, amid escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf.

www.express.co.uk

The next step for Israel and the US to take against Iran would be military strikes, according to a shock admission from a US official. Washington Strategy Group leader Joel Rubin made the stunning remarks after Israel confirmed it would be joining a US-led military alliance in the Gulf. In response to Israel’s role, Iran said it has the right to counter Israel’s role in the alliance, describing the move as a “clear threat”.

The news source seems to have a strong right wing bend according to the media bias/fact check site.

If true, and if that official isn't full of shit, that's quite the worrying development. I'd prefer there to not be a war, as I find sanctions are sufficient to curb Iranian ambition for the moment. But if war does erupt between Iran and the USA I'll definitely want Israel to provide aid to its closest ally.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Semi? This is a full blown cold war between Iran and Israel. Likely to go hot soon.

 

[GoldRanger]

It's only "semi" because it's partially hot already, with Iranian proxies actively striking at Israel (even if only occasionally for now), and Israel blowing up Iranian bases in Syria and basically directly killing Iranian military personnel.

 

[Hlaalu Agent]

It's only "semi" because it's partially hot already, with Iranian proxies actively striking at Israel (even if only occasionally for now), and Israel blowing up Iranian bases in Syria and basically directly killing Iranian military personnel.

You know I'd prefer that it was just pointless saber wielding by Iran and Israel just playing along, because that way the region would be more stable. And it wouldn't involve dead Iranian, Israelis, or dead anyone. Though that would require a level of restraint from Iran...I really thought they were saner than this.

 

[GoldRanger]

You know I'd prefer that it was just pointless saber wielding by Iran and Israel just playing along, because that way the region would be more stable. And it wouldn't involve dead Iranian, Israelis, or dead anyone. Though that would require a level of restraint from Iran...I really thought they were saner than this.

Iran is under an authoritarian and highly religious regime that have grand regional ambitions. Restraint, I'm afraid, is definitely not in the cards.

 

[Hlaalu Agent]

Iran is under an authoritarian and highly religious regime that have grand regional ambitions. Restraint, I'm afraid, is definitely not in the cards.

I can understand that, but, really I thought they were relatively sane even for that. After all they did try to pivot to the USA in the past and cozy up to them. Such as offering the USA aid with punish the terrorists behind 9/11 if I remember correctly. Or is it because the sitting theocrat of the day was sane back then?

 

[GoldRanger]

I can understand that, but, really I thought they were relatively sane even for that. After all they did try to pivot to the USA in the past and cozy up to them. Such as offering the USA aid with punish the terrorists behind 9/11 if I remember correctly. Or is it because the sitting theocrat of the day was sane back then?

I've heard about it too. I'd say it was just politically convenient to them at the time. Probably attempted to put a wedge between the USA and their main regional rival Saudi Arabia by muscling into a closer relationship with the USA. It makes sense since the 9/11 terrorists were Saudi. I very much doubt they had any intent beyond opportunism.

 

[Marduk]

Oh please, Israel has been doing military strikes against Iranian assets in Syria, Lebanon and sometimes other places since years.
So, lots of hot air about business as usual.
Obviously with the recent escalation of recent tanker seizures, this little cold war could get a little hotter, but i'd guess that it would not be Israel doing it, as it's not involved in that particular recent kerfuffle.

I can understand that, but, really I thought they were relatively sane even for that. After all they did try to pivot to the USA in the past and cozy up to them. Such as offering the USA aid with punish the terrorists behind 9/11 if I remember correctly. Or is it because the sitting theocrat of the day was sane back then?

It was a classic "looking for an idiot while making a point for PR" move. What is well known since long time is that the Iranian theocratic government is officially committed to spreading its Revolution(tm) through the region, and it's not just talk, plenty of action has followed. USA has alliances, friendships, deals and commitments in that region, consider what the above means for those. These initiatives are bound to collide, it's unavoidable.

 

[FriedCFour]

@GoldRanger wouldnt it be closer to cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia with Israel being an ally of convenience now with the Saudis?

 

[GoldRanger]

@GoldRanger wouldnt it be closer to cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia with Israel being an ally of convenience now with the Saudis?

Not exactly. Iran and Israel are entangled in their own enmity that has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia. Iran is the power beind Hizbullah, and has been attempting (and having limited success) to create a land corridor to Israel through Iraq and Syria ever since the Syrian war broke out.

Iran warns of war if ‘Zionists’ enter the Persian Gulf

“Whenever our commanders wish to, they are able to detain any ship, even if it is accompanied by American and British forces,” warned Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval commander Alireza Tangsiri.

www.jns.org

The Iranian sabre-rattling continues, with more threats to seize shipment through the gulf.

 

[Cherico]

the sad thing is, all of this emity is just stupid.

In any sane system real politic Iran would either be neutral to Israel or allied to them.

To their west is a hoast of countries that are hostle to both of their intrests, in such a system you either ignore the guy who also has to deal with your enemies or you ally with them, this is expecially true since neither power has any territorial claims over the other but because of domestic politics Iran picks a fight with Israel a power that was helpful to them during the revolution and the Iran Iraq war and gained the hostility of their great power supporter america.

All to try to get the support and love from their sempai the arab street.

Well I hate to inform any Iranians here but sempai is never going to love you deal with it.

 

[Husky_Khan]

This thread will be dedicated to news about the semi-cold war between Israel and Iran, and general discussion about the enmity between the two countries.

Iran & Israel: Get Thread About Their Cold War

Gulf States: Am I nothing to you?

 

[GoldRanger]

Iran & Israel: Get Thread About Their Cold War

Gulf States: Am I nothing to you?

Maybe we can make it a general "Iranian shenanigans" thread instead.

Edit: edited the title.

 

[Cherico]

Iran & Israel: Get Thread About Their Cold War

Gulf States: Am I nothing to you?

Looks at Persian girls, looks at Israli girls, takes off gulf state girls burka, puts it back on and backs away slowly.

 

[Comrade Clod]

Frankly we wouldn't have an Iran problem if Trump had stuck to the deal. Or said problem would be more clearly Iran's fault at any rate.

 

[GoldRanger]

Frankly we wouldn't have an Iran problem if Trump had stuck to the deal. Or said problem would be more clearly Iran's fault at any rate.

The deal was a large part of the Iranian problem, which Trump thankfully excised.

It's a treaty that shoves the nuclear problem ten years down the road, only then Iran could simply legally pursue nuclear weapons without any consequences and reprecussions. The deal was a turd.

 

[Comrade Clod]

The deal was a large part of the Iranian problem, which Trump thankfully excised.

It's a treaty that shoves the nuclear problem ten years down the road, only then Iran could simply legally pursue nuclear weapons without any consequences and reprecussions. The deal was a turd.

That wasn't the treaties point, Trump destruction of it essentially means that Iran is now A: Going to be even more hostile to the US than before (didn't even think that was doable)
B: Going to actually get nukes instead of having potential for nukes. - Seriously, a lot of countries CAN make nukes, but they don't because they're expensive mofo's. Hell, freaking Ghana can make nukes.
And C, most importantly, effectively destroyed a lot of US soft power for deal making.

The above? That's a problem, not for the republicans, or the democrats, but for the US as a whole. The US is now 2nd rate in terms of international treaties because it has now got a history of tearing them up when it doesn't suit them.

 

[GoldRanger]

That wasn't the treaties point, Trump destruction of it essentially means that Iran is now A: Going to be even more hostile to the US than before (didn't even think that was doable)
B: Going to actually get nukes instead of having potential for nukes. - Seriously, a lot of countries CAN make nukes, but they don't because they're expensive mofo's. Hell, freaking Ghana can make nukes.
And C, most importantly, effectively destroyed a lot of US soft power for deal making.

The above? That's a problem, not for the republicans, or the democrats, but for the US as a whole. The US is now 2nd rate in terms of international treaties because it has now got a history of tearing them up when it doesn't suit them.

You are looking at the problem from a perspective that assumes Iran is a rational country that was simply wronged in the past by America (true enough) and just wants to be left alone (false).

In reality, Iran is a pretty hardcore theocracy that is building up to be a regional hegemon that will severely disrupt and destabilize the middle east (it already does to a degree with its meddling) if left unchecked. They have fingers in four countries/pies in the region at the moment, and there's no end to their imperialistic ambitions in sight.

Officially allowing them to develop nuclear weapons (and they were guaranteed to go for them 10 years down the road) without consequences is an insane policy. They aren't even contained on all sides and restrained by a major more responsible power like North Korea is.

It's frankly worth some loss of soft power if it means sanctions can now be applied to pressure and disrupt the Iranian ambitions. Blame Obama for agreeing to the terms of the treaty in the first place.

 

[Comrade Clod]

It's frankly worth some loss of soft power if it means sanctions can now be applied to pressure and disrupt the Iranian ambitions. Blame Obama for agreeing to the terms of the treaty in the first place.

Nothing has changed except all those hardliners in Iran who were against the treaty? They got proved right. And the moderate faction is now severely jaded with US promises, and that poses a problem for any descalation in the future.

Some of Trumps foreign policy measures have had negative results. None of them were as cataclysmically fucked up as this one. He turned an enemy willing to engage into détente into and enemy who knows the US won't play fair and will respond in kind.

 

[Yokkiziikzekker]

I'd say the bigger tinderbox is the one between Iran and Saudi Arabia, acting almost like the global Cold War between USA and USSR through Capitalism vs Communism but regional/miniature and between Shia and Sunni Islam. What makes it so bad though is that the former is backed up by Russia - a nuclear power, and the latter by the United States, the sole superpower and distant first place heavyweight world military power champion on earth (also nuclear power)