Potential Civil War or Succession Crisis in Ethiopias Northern Tigray Region

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
And it looks like the Tigray forces pushed Ethiopian forces out of the regional capital, with Eritrean forces being in retreat as well. Ethiopia is now offering a ceasefire.
 

Knowledgeispower

Ah I love the smell of missile spam in the morning
And it looks like the Tigray forces pushed Ethiopian forces out of the regional capital, with Eritrean forces being in retreat as well. Ethiopia is now offering a ceasefire.
for now anyways. Once they regroup and rearm they'll be back
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
And it looks like the Tigray forces pushed Ethiopian forces out of the regional capital, with Eritrean forces being in retreat as well. Ethiopia is now offering a ceasefire.

Fake News my friend.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy has assured us that while yes... the Ethiopian forces have departed Mekelle, the Capitol of the Tigray Region, it wasn't because they were forced out or routed... they are merely withdrawing elsewhere because the Capitol isn't a "center of gravity for conflicts." ;)


I do love how Ethiopia is proposing a unilateral cease fire now... I swear they were shooting down (perhaps not literally) cease fire options brought forth by the opposition and international community in the weeks and months leading up to this apparent 'withdrawal.'
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
How much blood did they spend holding it?

It seems like as soon as the TPLF started capturing villages north of Mekelle, the Ethiopian Army just started looting the Capitol for the past few days before withdrawing to the Southern Tigrayan region and then calling for this apparent cease fire. So apparently they didn't really put up a fight for the Capitol itself. They'll probably try to blockade the Tigray region now that outright conquest didn't work. They looted all of the aid agencies they already had working in Mekelle before they left and three Doctors Without Borders workers were 'executed' in Ethiopian occupied territory by 'unknown' parties while Abiy has been accusing aid agencies of supporting the Rebels.

A blockade could work since most of Tigray's borders are with Eritrea and Ethiopia proper. Their border with Sudan is mostly wilderness with no major roads.
 

liberty90

Evil Neoliberal Cat
It depends how determined Ethiopia is: in theory you could flood Tigray with one army after another, the population difference is like over 100 million people vs 7/8 million. But yes, evidently federal forces are currently very, very incompetent.

War crimes are disgusting, but I understand if the central gov fears that the whole country may dissolve into tribes if Tigray is allowed freedom, especially too easily.
 
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Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Bit of an update... According to residents of Lalibela, Tigray Rebels have captured that town which actually is located in the neighboring Amhara province and also the home to a UNESCO World Heritage site which is famous for its 12th century rock hewn churches. This is apparently part of a week long offensive the Tigray Rebels have engaged in beyond the borders of the Tigray Region and have according to government officials, displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians. Supposedly large numbers of soldiers and militia are being mobilized in the Amhara and Afar regions but Lalibela itself seemed to fall without a fight, with no Ethiopian security forces present.

 

liberty90

Evil Neoliberal Cat
Forces of Tigray are greatly expanding the war, deeply entering provinces to their south. If this continues, capital of Ethiopia may be in danger of falling.

Edit:
After some more reading about the current situation: it seems that Tigrayans are stopped by the Federal force, at least for now. The capital of Amhara province, Debre Tabor, was shelled by Tigray but then they were forced to stop.
 
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Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
Minor update on the Tigray War:

Nobel Peace Prize winning President Abey of Ethiopia has vowed to uphold Ethiopia's "Honor" by launching a massive offensive against the TPLF after being confirmed to a new term last Monday.

Al Jjazeera said:
The reports come just days after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for a new term on Monday, promising to stand strong and defend “Ethiopia’s honour” despite mounting international criticism of the conflict and alarm about the humanitarian crisis it has triggered.




A CNN Investigation (underreported by CNN) a few days ago revealed that according to cargo documents and manifests, as well as eyewitnesses, that Ethiopian Airlines has been transporting tens of thousands of dollars worth of weapons and munitions to Eritrea from the Ethiopian Ministry of Defense. Ethiopia obviously denies the charges.

Al Jazeera said:
On waybills examined by CNN, the news outlet found that “on at least six occasions — from November 9 to November 28 — Ethiopian Airlines billed Ethiopia’s ministry of defense tens of thousands of dollars for military items including guns and ammunition to be shipped to Eritrea.”

Terms and abbreviations including “Military refill,” “AM” for ammunition and “RIFFLES” (a misspelling of rifles) appeared on the waybills, according to the CNN investigation, which also cited interviews with airline employees who confirmed the terms.

If true, the claims are a violation of international aviation law, which prohibits using civilian aircraft to transport military weapons. It could also jeopardise Ethiopian Airlines’ membership in the lucrative Star Alliance, a group of 26 global airlines.




Also at the end of September, Ethiopia expelled seven senior United Nations officials for meddling in Ethiopia's affairs regarding the whole Humanitarian Crisis their blockade of Tigray has continued to foment.

[/hr]
 

Husky_Khan

The Dog Whistler... I mean Whisperer.
Founder
The Biden Administration has issued a statement that they are unable to help US citizens escape war torn Ethiopia.

Biden Administration said:
The Department of State urges U.S citizens in Ethiopia to depart now using commercially available options. The U.S. Embassy is unlikely to be able to assist U.S. citizens in Ethiopia with departure if commercial options become unavailable. Although seats on commercial flights currently remain available, we cannot predict when demand will exceed capacity.

The Biden Administrations peace and diplomatic efforts in Ethiopia have been ineffective in the Tigray Region who has called for numerous cease fires and peace talks instead of pursuing military solutions to the ongoing conflict but both sides, including Nobel Peace Prize winning President Abiy of Ethiopia have appeared rigid and unmoving in the wake of the deep concern voiced by the United States. Earlier this year Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and a close ally of the President met President Abiy and hand delivered him a letter from President Biden urging peace but it too did little to deter the ongoing conflict.

 

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