Potential Civil War or Succession Crisis in Ethiopias Northern Tigray Region

[Captain X]

Pathetic.

 

[Cherico]

Pathetic.

The us government refuses to protect Americans in America why would it protect Americans overseas?

 

[Husky_Khan]

I guess I should mention the reason this is even being discussed is because its felt that Addis Adaba, the Capitol of Ethiopia, could potentially fall to Tigrayan forces in the next few weeks. It's believed that the Rebel forces are around 200 miles or 325 kilometers north of the Capitol and have captured several major cities including Dessie in the opening days of this month after a much touted Government Counter-Offensive ended up doing nothing to stem the tide of Tigrayan advances. Also the Tigrayans have created a coalition of nine Rebel groups whose stated goal is the overthrow of the current Abiy government.

Nobel Peace Prize winner President Abiy has vowed to keep on fighting and has called on all Ethiopians to sacrifice for the cause of Ethiopianism.

“There are sacrifices to be made, but those sacrifices will salvage Ethiopia. We have seen the tests and obstacles and it made us stronger." - President Abiy

The government’s communication service said on Twitter: “For us, Ethiopians, dying for our sovereignty, unity and identity, is an honour. There is no Ethiopianism without sacrifice.”

US orders diplomats out of Ethiopia as rebels approach capital - Digital Journal

The US said on Saturday it had ordered all of its non-essential diplomats and their families to leave Ethiopia, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged people

www.digitaljournal.com

 

[PsihoKekec]

Ethiopianism

This is Africa, people identify with their clan and tribe, not the state. There is still a chance that government forces will wear down Tigrayan advance with aerial bombardment, but if Tigrayans reach Adis Abeba it is very likely that the morale of the government forces will collapse (again) and there will be no meaningful defense of the capital.

 

[TheRejectionist]

Ethiopianism

This is Africa, people identify with their clan and tribe, not the state. There is still a chance that government forces will wear down Tigrayan advance with aerial bombardment, but if Tigrayans reach Adis Abeba it is very likely that the morale of the government forces will collapse (again) and there will be no meaningful defense of the capital.

True. The second time Italy invaded it won also thanks to bribing ethnic groups of the borderlands and also didn't like being governed by Haile Selassie. And enjoyed particularly to beat the shot out of other Ethiopians .

 

[gral]

Ethiopianism

This is Africa, people identify with their clan and tribe, not the state. There is still a chance that government forces will wear down Tigrayan advance with aerial bombardment, but if Tigrayans reach Adis Abeba it is very likely that the morale of the government forces will collapse (again) and there will be no meaningful defense of the capital.

My understanding, from what little I know about the situation, is that the Tigrayans aren't exactly liked by the other ethnic groups that make up Ethiopia. I expect the Tigrayans to fail to reach Addis Abeba, at least for now, because the central government will pull in every group with a grudge(and since the Tigrayans were the government until recently, there's plenty of grudges going around) to push the Tigrayans back.

 

[PsihoKekec]

The problem is that Amharans are also rather unpopular and resulting in several other insurgencies going on at this time, so it is more likely to turn Tigrayans against Amharans fight with other groups joining in opportunistically. Currently the Tigrayans have the edge due to better organisation and higher motivation, giving them one shot at taking Adis Abeba.

 

[liberty90]

I think that some people are almost happy about the situation, like it's a rebel alliance from a sf movie, but the reality is more complex. This whole situation is a great tragedy for Ethiopia. Before this nonsense they were still extremely poor, but like China during early 1990s, had 10% economic growth and pretty bright future 30+ years from now. With this nonsense... Eh.

 

[LindyAF]

Before this nonsense they were still extremely poor, but like China during early 1990s, had 10% economic growth and pretty bright future 30+ years from now.

Ethiopia superpower by 2050?

 

[Husky_Khan]

Ethiopia superpower by 2050?

Deus Vult!

 

[PsihoKekec]

Ethiopia superpower by 2050?

Regional power, perhaps even capable of feeding themselves. But such is life (and Africa in particular).

 

[liberty90]

Ethiopia superpower by 2050?

More like Brazil, but with less crime.

Of course now the situation looks... less hopeful than in 2015.

 

[gral]

More like Brazil, but with less crime.

Somehow, I doubt that it would have less crime, considering the urbanization explosion that is probably going to happen in the next 30 years there.

 

[TheRejectionist]

More like Brazil, but with less crime.

Of course now the situation looks... less hopeful than in 2015.

Brazil doesn't have an ethnic/linguistic/religious difference so big , the separatist groups here were/are laughable, never amounted to anything.

Not to mention crime in Brazil could be lower if they stopped counting gangsters killing each other as victims

 

[liberty90]

Somehow, I doubt that it would have less crime, considering the urbanization explosion that is probably going to happen in the next 30 years there.

Generally speaking Vietnam or Egypt are safer than Brazil, as far as I know. Murders everywhere are not universal at lower-middle-income levels.

Right. Maybe I should use comparision with Egypt. There was potential in Ethiopia to be a peer power to Egypt, or stronger one.

And now...

 

[TheRejectionist]

Generally speaking Vietnam or Egypt are safer than Brazil, as far as I know. Murders everywhere are not universal at lower-middle-income levels.

Right. Maybe I should use comparision with Egypt. There was potential in Ethiopia to be a peer power to Egypt, or stronger one.

And now...

We are not as bad Mexico, thankfully our criminals are not that deranged or batshit insane (Los Zetas style) and tend not to reach middle or old age. Of course being the route for Europe and North-American drug smuggling doesn't make the stuff easier.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Tigrays President condemned the support that Iran, the UAE and Turkey (how's that for frenemies?) in supporting Nobel Peace Prize winning President Abiys alleged genocidal campaign and calls on the UNSC (UN Security Council, not the Space Command... Yet) to intervene.

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[History Learner]

Friends with an Ethiopian girl over there, very worried about her and she is likewise because she lives in Addis Ababa; she's very pretty, and given how dirty this war has been so far, it's not hard to imagine a bad fate should the TDF/OLF sack the city. Recently though, the situation near the capitol seems to have stabilized and she's able to do things again. Today, for example, she went horse back riding. Just a slice of life of what its like over there, I guess.

 

[Bacle]

It's odd, I actually saw some pro-Tigray stickers in Denver a few days ago, claiming that the Ethopian gov was trying to genocide the tigray's.

Anyone actually seen anything about an attempted genocide against them, or is that inflated rhetoric for their separatist movement?

 

[PsihoKekec]

When they first occupied the Tigray region, the government and Eritrean forces went on the rampage of massacres, rape and looting, giving the defeated Tigrayan militia morale boost needed to rally their forces, while also convincing the Tigrayan officers in the army to change side, thus leading to a devastating defeat.
Right now government is trying to starve out the Tigray region, while all Tigrayan people in Adis Abeba have been declared fifth column and rounded up, their current fate unknown.