peter Zeihan 2020

[Aaron Fox]

Well it was good while it lasted. 30 years to grow your economy where your not required to pay or even be respectful to the people who make it happen is a pretty good deal. If you wasted that time well sorry.

It'll only cause war because nations will inevitably start closing their doors to trade to keep jobs and money within their countries... which will fail because no country has the resources in the required quantities and quality all within their borders...

 

[Cherico]

It'll only cause war because nations will inevitably start closing their doors to trade to keep jobs and money within their countries... which will fail because no country has the resources in the required quantities and quality all within their borders...

its going to be a time of war suffering and death.

we have maybe 2 years of relative global good times before it all shits the bed because when the boomers leave the era of near infinant investment money goes away forever.

 

[Aaron Fox]

its going to be a time of war suffering and death.

we have maybe 2 years of relative global good times before it all shits the bed because when the boomers leave the era of near infinant investment money goes away forever.

No, a lot of the problems is via Russia believe it or not. Putin and associates recognize that the US basically pointing a gun at everyone's heads and pulled a 'trade or get fucked' is what killed the USSR in the grand scheme of things. Putin and associates knew that in order to regain the days of the USSR, that system had to go. Oddly enough, the work to annihilate this system is outlined via a Mein Kamph style book that is required reading to be part of Putin and associates various circles.

So, leveraging it's immense HUMINT and opening the memetic weapon pandora's box, Russia simply tipped the scales to put Trump into power. Combine this with a populous that can't see that their livelihood is based on this system of enforced trade and don't want to pay for it anymore for one reason or another...

... well, have fun with those implications.

 

[Cherico]

No, a lot of the problems is via Russia believe it or not. Putin and associates recognize that the US basically pointing a gun at everyone's heads and pulled a 'trade or get fucked' is what killed the USSR in the grand scheme of things. Putin and associates knew that in order to regain the days of the USSR, that system had to go. Oddly enough, the work to annihilate this system is outlined via a Mein Kamph style book that is required reading to be part of Putin and associates various circles.

So, leveraging it's immense HUMINT and opening the memetic weapon pandora's box, Russia simply tipped the scales to put Trump into power. Combine this with a populous that can't see that their livelihood is based on this system of enforced trade and don't want to pay for it anymore for one reason or another...

... well, have fun with those implications.

Russia ironically will be hurt more then most countries with the destruction of this system.

Because we garenteed their trade as well and when we leave all of those other countries will be forced to rebuild their milataries and with the russian educational system utterly gutted during the 90s their fucked side ways in the long term.

China like wise is going to have a really bad time as will Iran.

All of these countries that hated the order never quite realized just how much they benifited from it.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Russia ironically will be hurt more then most countries with the destruction of this system.

Because we garenteed their trade as well and when we leave all of those other countries will be forced to rebuild their milataries and with the russian educational system utterly gutted during the 90s their fucked side ways in the long term.

China like wise is going to have a really bad time as will Iran.

All of these countries that hated the order never quite realized just how much they benifited from it.

However, Russia's leadership is too nostalgic (i.e. has a serious case of 'Old World Blues') for reason in the long term and China is going to stay united come hell or high water because of China's history and the federal leadership doesn't want to go down in history as the gaggle of idiots that caused a nuclear civil war.

The most likely scenario is that we'll start seeing Imperialism 2.0: Nuclear States Edition as the system finally collapses given that significant portions of the US population can't wrap their heads around the need for the US to go around like the world police and the requirements in terms of taxes and military spending for their quality of life.

If it ends up going like my setting "A New World: A World of Conflict and Sorrow" then call me a fucking prophet and my setting the next Stand on Zanzibar... and prepare for a very horrible, very bloody, heavily dystopic (if you like unrestricted rights) ride.

 

[Cherico]

However, Russia's leadership is too nostalgic (i.e. has a serious case of 'Old World Blues') for reason in the long term and China is going to stay united come hell or high water because of China's history and the federal leadership doesn't want to go down in history as the gaggle of idiots that caused a nuclear civil war.

The most likely scenario is that we'll start seeing Imperialism 2.0: Nuclear States Edition as the system finally collapses given that significant portions of the US population can't wrap their heads around the need for the US to go around like the world police and the requirements in terms of taxes and military spending for their quality of life.

If it ends up going like my setting "A New World: A World of Conflict and Sorrow" then call me a fucking prophet and my setting the next Stand on Zanzibar... and prepare for a very horrible, very bloody, heavily dystopic (if you like unrestricted rights) ride.

The problem is this.

In order for America to maintain this kind of system there has to be a benefit to the American people. The American led order was created to fight the soviet union.

The deal was America garentees every ones trade with every one else in exchange for the allies fighting the war they want and for acess to energy these were the ways America got paid.

With the collapse of the soviet union the threat was gone, with shale the need for outside energy was gone, the two pillars of the international system vanished. Then the European union created the dollar for the express purpose of removing the united states as the reserve currency of the world which was going to piss us of. China the country who benifited from the order the most crashed into our spy plane in international waters forced into their territory and stole the tech which was a real dick move this is on top of 30 years worth of trade greviances.

When 911 happened a huge chunk of America's nato allies either noped out of the fight or couldnt even participate.


You have a situation where one country is paying for every one elses trade, the enemy that caused the great alliance is gone, you no longer need the energy so keeping things stable is not your problem.


Into this environment your asking American citizens to give over their hard earned money and die for allies who don't help you, publically disrespect you and are directly undermining you. Tell the French to do that and they would laugh in your face and tell you to get fucked, the Chinese would laugh even harder.

Americans did that for 30 years, for no reward.

The fact that we bleed for the order died for the order and gave our treasure for the order for 30 years is a testament to our generosity as a country. The current system will end, another system will rise in its place and a lot of people will die.

And its not just americans who deserve the blame, its china, its Russia, its the EU. Eventally we as a country just got sick of it, people insulted us and mocked us for the security we sent our people to die for.

Their getting their wish hope their happy.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Their getting their wish hope their happy.

As much as the end of Pax Americana is daunting, I partially approve. Europe has gone completely soft. Some actual danger might be the boot up the arse for our politicians to rediscover the art of "good governance." Perhaps our once proud armed forces may yet be restored. Given that my country Britain is a wealthy nation and could thus afford a powerful battle fleet if we got our shit together, Britannia could exert some serious influence in this new world. (Cough cough, British Empire 2: Electric Boogaloo. It's Commonwealth time, bitches!)

And you were right in what you've preciously said about China. There's serious trouble brewing in their economy.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

Perhaps our once proud armed forces may yet be restored.

Problem is, population numbers

I get people prefer Quality Over Quantity, but there's the problem that you guys have been sorta against having more or any kids for quite awhile, how can you have say, a military tradition if you don't have enough non-military types supporting said military

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Problem is, population numbers

I get people prefer Quality Over Quantity, but there's the problem that you guys have been sorta against having more or any kids for quite awhile, how can you have say, a military tradition if you don't have enough non-military types supporting said military

...there is still vastly more than enough manpower to sustain a few hundred thousand strong military. I don't think people realise just how small a percentage of the population the armed forces are.

That aside, human beings have a built in drive to procreate. Granted, first world environments mean you do not need to have so many children as they are 99.9% likely to reach adulthood, but most couples would like two children or so. The true problem is nothing to do with Western "people", but instead grasping big government taxing them to hilt, wrecking the unskilled jobs market with mass immigration, and completely buggering up the housing market. It is hard to start a family these days, which is just the epitome of how incompetent the past half a century of governance has been. That and feminism (leftism in general actually) has played an unfortunate role in politically weaponising an entire generation of young women, but this isn't damaging to the same extent as the rest.

 

[Aaron Fox]

...there is still vastly more than enough manpower to sustain a few hundred thousand strong military. I don't think people realise just how small a percentage of the population the armed forces are.

That aside, human beings have a built in drive to procreate. Granted, first world environments mean you do not need to have so many children as they are 99.9% likely to reach adulthood, but most couples would like two children or so. The true problem is nothing to do with Western "people", but instead grasping big government taxing them to hilt, wrecking the unskilled jobs market with mass immigration, and completely buggering up the housing market. It is hard to start a family these days, which is just the epitome of how incompetent the past half a century of governance has been. That and feminism (leftism in general actually) has played an unfortunate role in politically weaponising an entire generation of young women, but this isn't damaging to the same extent as the rest.

The amount of sheer stupid in this is mind-boggling... I just can't believe how stupid this... rant... is. It's like you've drunk enough cultist kool-aid that it's insane.

It isn't feminism or leftism that totaled birth rates, its simply cost. As the rich and corporations keep dodging taxes, things break down because civilization is always been expensive. As the rich and corporations try to cheat everyone else, the collapse of housing markets and other problems will continue.

As such, you need to find a way to make those costs either vanish or be inconsequential to get the birth rates up. You need to force corporations to completely revamp maternity leave with extreme prejudice. You need to make sure that the rich and corporations pay their taxes (even if it means going full Justinian the Great and torturing the rich to pay their dues). You need to ensure that the rich and corporations don't pull the 'turn a situation into a ticking time bomb and then bail out and thus avoid the consequences' BS.

That sort of thing.

Thus the constant 'closing of loopholes' for taxes, the idea of UBIs getting traction pretty much everywhere (to the point that some towns have become ginni pigs to get actual data on UBIs and the economy), so on and so forth. Hell, some people are going 'let's revive Huey Long's SHARE OUR WEALTH program!' (which, oddly enough, was a UBI before the name stuck)...

The problem is this.

In order for America to maintain this kind of system there has to be a benefit to the American people. The American led order was created to fight the soviet union.

The deal was America garentees every ones trade with every one else in exchange for the allies fighting the war they want and for acess to energy these were the ways America got paid.

With the collapse of the soviet union the threat was gone, with shale the need for outside energy was gone, the two pillars of the international system vanished. Then the European union created the dollar for the express purpose of removing the united states as the reserve currency of the world which was going to piss us of. China the country who benifited from the order the most crashed into our spy plane in international waters forced into their territory and stole the tech which was a real dick move this is on top of 30 years worth of trade greviances.

When 911 happened a huge chunk of America's nato allies either noped out of the fight or couldnt even participate.


You have a situation where one country is paying for every one elses trade, the enemy that caused the great alliance is gone, you no longer need the energy so keeping things stable is not your problem.


Into this environment your asking American citizens to give over their hard earned money and die for allies who don't help you, publically disrespect you and are directly undermining you. Tell the French to do that and they would laugh in your face and tell you to get fucked, the Chinese would laugh even harder.

Americans did that for 30 years, for no reward.

The fact that we bleed for the order died for the order and gave our treasure for the order for 30 years is a testament to our generosity as a country. The current system will end, another system will rise in its place and a lot of people will die.

And its not just americans who deserve the blame, its china, its Russia, its the EU. Eventally we as a country just got sick of it, people insulted us and mocked us for the security we sent our people to die for.

Their getting their wish hope their happy.

The problem is that those that aren't stupid in the US's leadership are trying to keep selling it but significant parts of the country can't wrap their heads around it (many of which, are oddly enough, Republican). Also, another system won't appear until someone simply conquers all of humanity with an iron fist because due to the situation the world is in right now and in the future if the system fails completely...

 

[Lord Sovereign]

The amount of sheer stupid in this is mind-boggling... I just can't believe how stupid this... rant... is. It's like you've drunk enough cultist kool-aid that it's insane.

It isn't feminism or leftism that totaled birth rates, its simply cost. As the rich and corporations keep dodging taxes, things break down because civilization is always been expensive. As the rich and corporations try to cheat everyone else, the collapse of housing markets and other problems will continue.

As such, you need to find a way to make those costs either vanish or be inconsequential to get the birth rates up. You need to force corporations to completely revamp maternity leave with extreme prejudice. You need to make sure that the rich and corporations pay their taxes (even if it means going full Justinian the Great and torturing the rich to pay their dues). You need to ensure that the rich and corporations don't pull the 'turn a situation into a ticking time bomb and then bail out and thus avoid the consequences' BS.

That sort of thing.

Ah of course, it's all the fault of the Rich whose taxes don't account for anywhere near the majority of revenue...and who oddly enough wind up contributing more when their horrifically unfair taxes (the progressive tax rate is an abortion of justice that only satisfies the moral whims of lefties) get slashed.

Big government did this. It has gotten steadily bigger and bigger (largely due to the Left's ill fated attempts to legislate away society's woes in the 1950s and 1960s) and has poked its unwelcome nose into everything. Over regulation has badly constrained the construction of housing, bloated social programmes demand higher taxes which makes purchasing a house all the more difficult, and mass immigration has driven demand through the roof.

I don't see how blaming the Rich for a problem they didn't create is going to fix this problem. The solution seems to be kicking the government out of places it isn't wanted and bring taxes down, not bloating the state even more, chasing away possible contributors to the economy, and pissing our wealth away on social programmes that don't seem to fucking work.

I haven't been drinking "koolaid." I've been sipping PG Tips.

 

[LifeisTiresome]

Ah yes, more maternity leave for women who don't have kids anyway. Media and culture encourages women to focus on career and how evil men are and how kids are unneeded.

Are corporations and cost a problem? Absolutely. But people simply don't want to face the other source of the problem.

 

[Floridaman]

The problem is that those that aren't stupid in the US's leadership are trying to keep selling it but significant parts of the country can't wrap their heads around it (many of which, are oddly enough, Republican). Also, another system won't appear until someone simply conquers all of humanity with an iron fist because due to the situation the world is in right now and in the future if the system fails completely...

imagine that, people don’t want to sacrifice themselves for the sake of the world with nothing in return, the current system isn’t a benefit to the US anymore, and our so called friends idea of supporting us is complaining about everything we do, while refusing to pay their share. We have spent more than enough blood and treasure supporting the rest of the world, either they pay up, or they can stand on their own, we are done.

 

[LifeisTiresome]

However, Russia's leadership is too nostalgic (i.e. has a serious case of 'Old World Blues') for reason in the long term and China is going to stay united come hell or high water because of China's history and the federal leadership doesn't want to go down in history as the gaggle of idiots that caused a nuclear civil war.

The most likely scenario is that we'll start seeing Imperialism 2.0: Nuclear States Edition as the system finally collapses given that significant portions of the US population can't wrap their heads around the need for the US to go around like the world police and the requirements in terms of taxes and military spending for their quality of life.

If it ends up going like my setting "A New World: A World of Conflict and Sorrow" then call me a fucking prophet and my setting the next Stand on Zanzibar... and prepare for a very horrible, very bloody, heavily dystopic (if you like unrestricted rights) ride.

But isn't the US playing world police dirty, dirty Imperialiasm and Capitalism and thus bad and should not happen?

 

[Floridaman]

But isn't the US playing world police dirty, dirty Imperialiasm and Capitalism and thus bad and should not happen?

no no no, the real answer is the US is wrong no matter what, if we are involved we are evil imperialist bullies, and when we leave we are cruel monsters leaving the rest of the world to suffer.

 

[Lanmandragon]

But isn't the US playing world police dirty, dirty Imperialiasm and Capitalism and thus bad and should not happen?

Naw he's not a SJW he's got some weird ideas but they aren't "intersectional".

 

[LordsFire]

It'll only cause war because nations will inevitably start closing their doors to trade to keep jobs and money within their countries... which will fail because no country has the resources in the required quantities and quality all within their borders...

Actually, with the possible exception of a small number of Rare Earth Elements, there's one particular nation that does have all the resources it needs within its own borders.

The USA.

What we don't already have, large-scale exploration of as-yet untapped areas has decent odds of finding. And even beyond that, if there's a couple specific elements we can't find?

"Hey, nation that is hurting financially, would you like to join the USA's trade network and have us pour millions/billions of dollars into your economy each year for what you'll export to us?"

That's a problem that'll get solved really fast, without the need to protect the whole damn world's merchant fleets.

 

[Floridaman]

Actually, with the possible exception of a small number of Rare Earth Elements, there's one particular nation that does have all the resources it needs within its own borders.

The USA.

What we don't already have, large-scale exploration of as-yet untapped areas has decent odds of finding. And even beyond that, if there's a couple specific elements we can't find?

"Hey, nation that is hurting financially, would you like to join the USA's trade network and have us pour millions/billions of dollars into your economy each year for what you'll export to us?"

That's a problem that'll get solved really fast, without the need to protect the whole damn world's merchant fleets.

Bingo, besides the US, Canada, and Brazil have large deposits, the only reason we haven't tapped them is why bother when the chinese will destroy their own land in order to give them to us at a far cheaper price than we can extract them. Since the US is not letting the Americas out of its sphere of influence, we are completely capable of being self sufficient.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[Aaron Fox]

Actually, with the possible exception of a small number of Rare Earth Elements, there's one particular nation that does have all the resources it needs within its own borders.

The USA.

What we don't already have, large-scale exploration of as-yet untapped areas has decent odds of finding. And even beyond that, if there's a couple specific elements we can't find?

"Hey, nation that is hurting financially, would you like to join the USA's trade network and have us pour millions/billions of dollars into your economy each year for what you'll export to us?"

That's a problem that'll get solved really fast, without the need to protect the whole damn world's merchant fleets.

Not really at the sheer volume needed... unless you want a serious hit on Quality of Life (which no one is willing to take). So the only way to secure that is through conflict.

Ah of course, it's all the fault of the Rich whose taxes don't account for anywhere near the majority of revenue...and who oddly enough wind up contributing more when their horrifically unfair taxes (the progressive tax rate is an abortion of justice that only satisfies the moral whims of lefties) get slashed.

Big government did this. It has gotten steadily bigger and bigger (largely due to the Left's ill fated attempts to legislate away society's woes in the 1950s and 1960s) and has poked its unwelcome nose into everything. Over regulation has badly constrained the construction of housing, bloated social programmes demand higher taxes which makes purchasing a house all the more difficult, and mass immigration has driven demand through the roof.

I don't see how blaming the Rich for a problem they didn't create is going to fix this problem. The solution seems to be kicking the government out of places it isn't wanted and bring taxes down, not bloating the state even more, chasing away possible contributors to the economy, and pissing our wealth away on social programmes that don't seem to fucking work.

I haven't been drinking "koolaid." I've been sipping PG Tips.

Nope, the rich and corporations have the most income and thus should have the most taxes. Then again, you sound like the very sort of people that got us into this mess.

 

[Floridaman]

. Then again, you sound like the very sort of people that got us into this mess.

Says the person who is spouting the standard neo-lib/neo-con bull about how America has to keep paying for a global order.