peter Zeihan 2020

Floridaman said:
There is also the fact their government spent years toying with socialism, that didnt do them any favors, not least of which it led the US to help Pakistan.
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name a person or country that didn't go through a stage of pointless rebellion that did them no favors.
 
Cherico said:
name a person or country that didn't go through a stage of pointless rebellion that did them no favors.
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The US hasn't actually had a pointless rebellion that did it no favors.

In the long run, the Civil War was probably a good thing for the nation. It ended slavery, got the Constitution incorporated against the states, and (most importantly) answered the Secession question in just about the most emphatic way possible.

All were good things, and going forward having a clear answer for when states get to leave the US (they don't) is a really good thing. Look at most of the rest of the world for examples as to why.

I mean the worst geopolitical decision that the UK made in the past century was the Good Friday agreement. They should have put Northern Ireland to the torch before they negotiated with the IRA; in doing so they legitimate violent secession and terrorism as a legitimate political tool.
 
Emperor Tippy said:
The US hasn't actually had a pointless rebellion that did it no favors.

In the long run, the Civil War was probably a good thing for the nation. It ended slavery, got the Constitution incorporated against the states, and (most importantly) answered the Secession question in just about the most emphatic way possible.

All were good things, and going forward having a clear answer for when states get to leave the US (they don't) is a really good thing. Look at most of the rest of the world for examples as to why.

I mean the worst geopolitical decision that the UK made in the past century was the Good Friday agreement. They should have put Northern Ireland to the torch before they negotiated with the IRA; in doing so they legitimate violent secession and terrorism as a legitimate political tool.
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It also forced a massive infrastructure build as Peter Zeihan points out, while the waterways of the North tend to link their states, the south is more like Europe with each state having their own waterway heading to the ocean. This means the states in the south were less unified, and more independent, as can be seen from their government, culture, heck they even had incompatible rail gauges, the reconstruction for all the pain it brought provided standardized infrastructure binding all the states closer.
 
Here's the latest newsletter.
Peter Zeihan said:
The past few weeks have been…eventful. I make my living anticipating and explaining and projecting change, with an unfortunate emphasis on destabilizing and disintegrative change. Pre-coronavirus the world was already hurtling through its most rapid breakdown in living memory; Coronavirus has accelerated…everything.
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Terthna said:
No offense to Mr. Zeihan, but I'd really like to know what he bases this statement on; "Trump’s levels of respect at home and abroad are at the lowest of his presidency – and trending very firmly down."
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he is speaking his personal opinion, watch any of his lectures, it is very clear he doesn’t like Trump and sometimes it influences his opinions, you have to keep in mind he doesn’t like the future he predicted, and since Trump accelerated the course for America to retrench itself, he doesn’t like him.
 
Floridaman said:
he is speaking his personal opinion, watch any of his lectures, it is very clear he doesn’t like Trump and sometimes it influences his opinions, you have to keep in mind he doesn’t like the future he predicted, and since Trump accelerated the course for America to retrench itself, he doesn’t like him.
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Keep in mind the future he predicted was an end to the greatest era of peace and prosperity in human history.

of course he's not going to like that future. Its invitable but hes not going to like that.
 
Cherico said:
Keep in mind the future he predicted was an end to the greatest era of peace and prosperity in human history.

of course he's not going to like that future. Its invitable but hes not going to like that.
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I dont disagree, but I dont see any point in blaming Trump, in the end the rest of the world abused the system so of course the US is leaving, I would place all the blame on those who decided to bite the hand that feeds.
 
Floridaman said:
I dont disagree, but I dont see any point in blaming Trump, in the end the rest of the world abused the system so of course the US is leaving, I would place all the blame on those who decided to bite the hand that feeds.
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Yes well, the fact that he does seem to blame Trump may mean things might not turn out as bad as he predicts; because if he's wrong about that, he could be wrong about other things too.
 
Here's the next issue of his newsletter:
Peter Zeihan said:
The propaganda out of China of late has been…notable. Beijing has accused the French of using their nursing homes as death camps, has blamed Italy for being the source of the coronavirus (at the very peak of Italian deaths), has charged the US Army with bringing the virus to China in the first place, has thrown a “fact sheet” of truly disbelievable disinformation at the fact-oriented Germans, and turned the country’s ambassadorial core into cut-rate tabloid distributors – all while leaning on anyone and everyone from the United Nations to the World Health Organization to the European Union to regional legislative bodies to alternatively suppress and delete any information or analysis that does anything but laud China, as well as push them to take public stances that slobberingly praise China.
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The next few years are going to be both glorious and depressing for those of us who have always criticized the Chinese government; glorious because it's all finally going to come crashing down, and depressing because the Chinese people are going to suffer immensely because of it.
 
Terthna said:
The next few years are going to be both glorious and depressing for those of us who have always criticized the Chinese government; glorious because it's all finally going to come crashing down, and depressing because the Chinese people are going to suffer immensely because of it.
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Even more depressing, the new detractors will act as if the old never were against China somehow
 
Terthna said:
The next few years are going to be both glorious and depressing for those of us who have always criticized the Chinese government; glorious because it's all finally going to come crashing down, and depressing because the Chinese people are going to suffer immensely because of it.
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Not likely, the CCP has far too much riding on living (and not be remembered in history as the idiots that caused a nuclear civil war) so the leadership will do pretty much anything to ensure that it doesn't happen. Unlike many of the previous dynasties, the CCP oddly enough learned from history. If anything, they're going to come out of this battered and bruised but not out for the count.

So far, the CCP has been incredibly on point despite the saber-rattling and local-only corruption. If this happened a good decade ago, then we would see the CCP start to collapse. The current leadership isn't that stupid.
 
Aaron Fox said:
Not likely, the CCP has far too much riding on living (and not be remembered in history as the idiots that caused a nuclear civil war) so the leadership will do pretty much anything to ensure that it doesn't happen. Unlike many of the previous dynasties, the CCP oddly enough learned from history. If anything, they're going to come out of this battered and bruised but not out for the count.

So far, the CCP has been incredibly on point despite the saber-rattling and local-only corruption. If this happened a good decade ago, then we would see the CCP start to collapse. The current leadership isn't that stupid.
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I'd really like to know what you'd think they'd be able to accomplish with the resources they have remaining, and why exactly their actions thus far have been "on point".
 
Terthna said:
I'd really like to know what you'd think they'd be able to accomplish with the resources they have remaining, and why exactly their actions thus far have been "on point".
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Given the circumstances? They've been rather on-point for being caught flat-footed by circumstance and corrupt underlings trying to screw things over or should I remind you that the Trump administration has ensured what has been happening with their gutting of the CDC and the closure of the external investigation department? A department that is vital for the medical security of the US? A department that has probably saved far more lives than you could think of just by being constantly out and about to check for any possible pathogens anywhere on the planet?

If you can't look at the bigger picture, then we have little to talk about.
 
Aaron Fox said:
Given the circumstances? They've been rather on-point for being caught flat-footed by circumstance and corrupt underlings trying to screw things over or should I remind you that the Trump administration has ensured what has been happening with their gutting of the CDC and the closure of the external investigation department? A department that is vital for the medical security of the US? A department that has probably saved far more lives than you could think of just by being constantly out and about to check for any possible pathogens anywhere on the planet?

If you can't look at the bigger picture, then we have little to talk about.
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I noticed you didn't actually answer either of my questions, and just ranted about Trump. I'm not sure why I expected more from you, but you're right; there's no discussion to be had here.
 
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