peter Zeihan 2020

... Ukraine hasn't ever had that many tanks available to them at once. You expect that to be a rather minor gain???

Where do you get minor from that? Being able to actually achieve breakthroughs through defended areas would be a huge game changer. Being able to achieve breakthroughs is the kind of thing that can force Russia terms, rather than a slap fight hoping someone gives up, or bleeds to death from paper cuts.

Yes, I'm arguing about future new build capacity. I agree that two years is a good long ramp, if Russia indeed has the capacity to take advantage of it and does so. But I don't think it can be assumed.

One thing I'm not really aware of is how transferable modern civilian auto manufacturing infrastructure is to modern tank production. And then again, the Russian definition of "modern tank" might be considerably more flexible than what prevails in the west. (Ditto modern civilian autos, come to think of it.) Certainly I would expect the workforce to be relatively transferable with that kind of retraining time potentially available.

it doesnt transfer well. Modern auto factories are highly automated with specialised robots, software and lines optimised to produce vehicles that weigh a couple of tonnes. most of the that equipment would be useless to make tanks.

Tank manufacturing requires its own specialised plant with more manual work. In the old days, they used factories from heavy industries like tractor production and locomotive production to build tanks in.

Eh, on a long enough time scale most things are pretty convertible. Domestically building a million cars if nothing else consumes at least a million tons of vehicle grade steel and commits 100,000s of workers who clearly at least show up for work and produce something to a task which isn't directly connected to the war effort.

Even if it wasn't short term committable to tank production (but given soviet tank production at the exact same facilities, of the exact same models, I doubt those factories don't have room to increase production if you threw 10,000 or so extra factory workers at the problem, especially after a 6-12 month ramp up) the auto production could be quickly transferred to other war needs.

Mortars, military cars, and various drone, both surface and airborne, probably are pretty transferable tech. Diverting 100,000 of those civilian car engines into drone power packs would probably be relatively easy switch over. Cash going overseas to buy cars from China, which seems to be something like half of Russian new cars consumption, is even easier to see how it could be more directly put to use in the war effort.

Russia seems to be importing some 60,000 cars from China each month, at a cost of over a $1 billion a month. Even dedicating that amount of hard currency/trade balance to get even 60,000 more drones from China, which probably cost less than 60,000 cars, is probably a big boost to drone numbers, unless I'm way out of date on how many are in use. Or any number of other things it would be valuable to buy from China.

The fact Russia seems to have prioritized increasing civilian car manufacturing and replacement of civilian imports, rather than dedicating to some increase in War production, certainly says something. What exactly probably won't be completely clear until after the fact, whether it talks to a position of strength on Russia's part (they're not desperately sacrificing civilian standards to increase military strength because they don't think they need to) or weakness (Russia can't convert civilian economy to military, either because the state is not popular enough to enforce such sacrifices, or is too incompetent to do it, even if the Russians think they need it).
 
Mmm... seeing the word "Weimar" in anything is not really a good sign:


-Weimar Triangle is a post-Cold War group concocted by France, Germany, and Poland
-Main countries in north European plain
-Tried to get all on one side to prevent more of the wars the three of them started with each other historically
-Kind of fell apart in the 2000s-2010s
-The Ukranian invasion got the band back together
-Now they're doing joint military stuff
-Being defensive against the Russians lets them hammer you, gotta blow up their infrastructure
-Germany is realizing shit has changed, their foreign policy doesn't work any more
-Probably not going to work well
-Launching from east Poland is pretty far from the Russian industrial base
-Ukraine is necessary for Weimar Quartet and better launch positions
-Makes Russia worry about the frontier
-Splitting up the Eurasian heartland makes it easier to make Russia not backslide into assholes if they sort their shit out
 
I'm fairly sure I've never heard the word "thunderboomer" before today. (Either "thunderstorm" or "particularly impressive thunderstorm") Since I'm also American, perhaps it's regional or outdated or something. Or maybe I'm the weird one.
 
Peter covers a big political shakeup in Israel:


-Ultra-orthodox Jews lost their religious exemption from military service thanks to Israeli Supreme Court
-10-20% of population, pay low taxes, get lots of subsidies, don't work, have high birth rates and low labor participation
-Have a disproportionate weight on Israeli society
-Netanyahu's governing coalition has lots of them
-Talk a big game about using the military to solve problems
-Short term issue - temporary unity government, lots of factions left due to Netanyahu/Ultra-orthodox of strategic incompetence
-Netanyahu needs the Ultra-orthodox to stay in power
-An ultra-orthodox faction might flip due to Supreme Court decision to get better deal

Peter explains why there's 10% Russian oil exports that we have to maintain:


-Russia has oil that complies with sanctions
-Has oil that doesn't comply with sanctions moved by Shadow Fleet
-Breaking Russian power requires destroying Russian income
-Lot of collateral damage of doing it
-A lot of it to go due to their capacity
-Need to stop 6 million barrels a day of petroleum products
-Over 10% of global traded energy product
-Fucking with supply screws with economies by generating huge price shock
-Biden would lose instantly
-Severing US from global energy markets, namely exports, could work
-That would remove 3-5 million barrels a day from the rest of the world
-Causes massive global depression while NA is okay
-Would destroy western alliance
-Enforcement requires bombing Russian ports or blowing up Shadow Fleet moving oil to India/China
-Probably would happen eventually, big political decision
 
I'm fairly sure I've never heard the word "thunderboomer" before today. (Either "thunderstorm" or "particularly impressive thunderstorm") Since I'm also American, perhaps it's regional or outdated or something. Or maybe I'm the weird one.
It's a regional thing, mostly Colorado.

A thunder boomer is a thunderstorm that is really active, and not just a 'potential' thunderstorm.

It's also a way to differentiate between normal thunder storm, and a thunder snow, which is a differentiation that actually matters in Colorado, since we can sometimes end up with both at the same time of year if the conditions are right.

Even in June, it's possible to get a snow storm that generates lightening in the peaks/alpine areas of Colorado.
Denial implies he's even aware of the truth; which I doubt he is, considering he trusts what the government and mainstream media are telling him.
When you under stand Peter's opinions are often filtered through some of the local...political assumptions in CO, his domestic takes make a lot more sense.
 
When has he been right?
Ukraine. he has been right in the past. but his Trust in media and institutions means he has big blind spots that screw his predictions about most things related to America. which is the biggest country in the world and what most of his listeners care about.
 
When has he been right?
How would I know? I just know him as the guy who keeps pointing out that China is a paper tiger and fearing it is stupid. And also keeps confirming that the US will remain the hegemon for the foreseeable future.
 
Ukraine. he has been right in the past. but his Trust in media and institutions means he has big blind spots that screw his predictions about most things related to America. which is the biggest country in the world and what most of his listeners care about.

Wasn't Ukraine one of the major points he was very wrong about? I recall something about how the actual invasion in 2022 forced a radical adjustment to is assumptions there. I also remember hearing his explanations for why the war was happening, and finding them to be very questionable and likely wrong, but honestly can't remember what it was exactly. I think something about invasion routs, which didn't make sense as a reason, especially given Russian behavior even before the invasion.

Plus, when the US and its behavior is so central to the world order in general, and many of his particular predictions, being wrong there is likely to make all his other predictions wrong as well.

How would I know? I just know him as the guy who keeps pointing out that China is a paper tiger and fearing it is stupid. And also keeps confirming that the US will remain the hegemon for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, his China takes are also incredibly silly and dumb as well. When he's both got very questionable opinions on the US and on China, where is he likely to be right on?
 
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Peter talks about the UK elections:


-Pre-deep water navigation, England didn't matter
-All the income from a deep water empire had to go somewhere
-Became primary global financial node for everyone
-London wasn't only financial hub, got surpassed
-Post-WWII was dodgy for the Brits because industry and finance moved on
-Joining the EU in the 1970s helped out, because the rest of Europe sucked at finance
-Conservative governments tried to cut off Europe and still do the finance
-All financial flows are cut off
-Won't rejoin Europe because they'd get hit with the exact same shit that made them quit
-Need a top-to-bottom economic reformation
-The only option is integrating with North America on North American terms
-What made the UK special is gone, Labor needs to wrap their minds around it
-Brits don't want to be failing middle power
 
Mmm... seeing the word "Weimar" in anything is not really a good sign:


-Weimar Triangle is a post-Cold War group concocted by France, Germany, and Poland
-Main countries in north European plain
-Tried to get all on one side to prevent more of the wars the three of them started with each other historically
-Kind of fell apart in the 2000s-2010s
-The Ukranian invasion got the band back together
-Now they're doing joint military stuff
-Being defensive against the Russians lets them hammer you, gotta blow up their infrastructure
-Germany is realizing shit has changed, their foreign policy doesn't work any more
-Probably not going to work well
-Launching from east Poland is pretty far from the Russian industrial base
-Ukraine is necessary for Weimar Quartet and better launch positions
-Makes Russia worry about the frontier
-Splitting up the Eurasian heartland makes it easier to make Russia not backslide into assholes if they sort their shit out

Sorry,but notching here is true.
It was create to made Poland germans colony again,and it is working now with german agent as polish premier.
Germans are rulers here,France coud do notching.
And germans want alliance with Moscov again.
Military stuff? we were buing good South Korean stuff,and mass produce them.Now,germans stopped that,and would made us buy german shit.
And,of course,not be capable of building ot by ourselves.
 
Peter explains the Iranian elections:


-2 round voting system in Iran
-Guy was a moderate compared to his competition (all competitors backed by the clergy)
-During botched Iraq occupation, Iran displaced a lot of groups
-Targeting the oil from Iran cripples them, since it's main income
-A decade of sanctions has fucked up their standard of living
-The guy who died was a hardliner that everyone hated
-Elections in Iran only matter so much
-Guy is willing to compromise on a few points
-Also doesn't think women should get beaten by cops for showing hair, majority of population sides with president on this
-10K mullahs rule Iran
-First time in 40 years, there's split in leadership on how Iran should be at home
 
Peter explains the Iranian elections:


-2 round voting system in Iran
-Guy was a moderate compared to his competition (all competitors backed by the clergy)
-During botched Iraq occupation, Iran displaced a lot of groups
-Targeting the oil from Iran cripples them, since it's main income
-A decade of sanctions has fucked up their standard of living
-The guy who died was a hardliner that everyone hated
-Elections in Iran only matter so much
-Guy is willing to compromise on a few points
-Also doesn't think women should get beaten by cops for showing hair, majority of population sides with president on this
-10K mullahs rule Iran
-First time in 40 years, there's split in leadership on how Iran should be at home

If we can get an Iranian leadership change/split that moves in the right direction, we might be able to get to a point of a sane Iran again, instead of the puppeted zombie that the IRGC and Ayatollah have made it.
 
Peter Zeihan released a video about the Trump attempted assassination and boy he does talk a lot but not about what happened to Donald. He is so politically correct he doesn't talk almost at all of what happened. Lots of people mocking him in the comments for that. He must really like his own self-reported dinners at Langley since he avoids the issue like it's a MOAB :



I wouldn't trust Zeihan with a dollar, much less with international geopolitics takes.

From the comments on his own YT video :

@JatinKumar-pz1qw

20 ore fa
Peter, so why did this assassination attempt happen?

"Well, in the 1930s, we had a great depression,... and now it's not that we're running out of kids, we're running out of working age adults."


@arthurlau98


20 ore fa
History is made from Trends and moments.

Peter tends to be right on trends. But moments also make History, that is what make it hard to predict.

And 1 cm and 1 head turn made history today.
Leggi tutto





@nikolaydimitrov-nikodimi

19 ore fa
This clip should be titled: "Changing World and nothing about Assassination Attempt"




@grantmitchell9142

20 ore fa
So you haven't really answered what most of us probably want to know. Does this event change your prediction for who wins the election in November?

@Yakitak

20 ore fa (modificato)
You didn't say much directly about Trump.
However, I really like your point that "you don't have global trade without consumption."

@CodyShell

20 ore fa
I feel like i could have predicted half of what he said in this video lol

@hardheadjarhead

17 ore fa
The Civil Rights era of the 1960's also saw a violent shift with the polar flipping of the parties. Blacks left the Republican Party in droves and joined the Democratic Party, and southern whites eventually shifted from the Democratic Party to the Republicans. It was NOT a painless or peaceful era.



@jmanjman2685

16 ore fa
This video is literally empty about the topic

@neildarling2404

19 ore fa
Surprisingly, this is a nothingburger of a video.

@danielfrt

19 ore fa
How can this guy implement so many professional and technical words to say nothing new?

@FreestyleJameZ

16 ore fa
It's certain that this year will bring more challenges. Looking back, I realized that I spent the entire previous year making expensive financial blunders because I was so consumed with worrying about my portfolio. I was forced to decide between raising my investments and purchasing a home. I discovered that the property I had bought needed more work than I had anticipated after deciding to sell my investments. It's becoming more difficult to determine how much longer I can take this.

@getlostlser

19 ore fa
He went right into this written material lol. Nothing about what the title is about


@alishaberrey4479

13 ore fa
I really appreciate your 'its the end of an era' approach instead of 'the worlds coming to an end' approach.

@Paul-cu9lu

21 ore fa
Don't sound so disappointed, peter.

@eurospec

19 ore fa
Was wondering when that explanation would swing back around to the headline topic


@Ladner1

9 ore fa
So basically Peter is saying a 20 year old is reacting poorly to change? What a terrible analysis! What exactly was this 20 year old accustomed to that is changing so dramatically?


@AnthonyP1991

21 ore fa
We were all eagerly awaiting Zeihan's comments on this.



@loot6

21 ore fa
A bit clickbait, he barely said anything about the assassination attempt.


@lifeontheX

19 ore fa
"And Biden is going to win in a landslide..." Remember that Peter?


@kirk3916

20 ore fa
pretty sure you'll end up on The View soon.



@neohelios77

11 ore fa
Thank you for the rational perspective during these relatively chaotic times.


@LuminousMindGames

16 ore fa
Did he even mention the assassination?


@Vulpine407

7 ore fa
"May you live in interesting times."
I know that's not the exact quote, but it certainly describes the last decade.


@RobbPhilo

14 ore fa
Peter didn't talk about what everyone is talking about....

World salad and three letter agency crowd pleaser.
 
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