AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
The Vietnamese were being supplied by the Soviet Union
Low capacity? they are outproducing the entirety of NATO in most munitions.
peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
The Vietnamese were being supplied by the Soviet Union
Low capacity? they are outproducing the entirety of NATO in most munitions.
Vyor
My influence grows!
Which is why they need nork weapons, right?
I mean, that would be difficult for Russia, but its also so unlikely I'm not sure its really worth considering?
Iran had nearly zero resupply of its armor, and they ended the war with 100s of tanks. I'm pretty sure the Germans had a 1000+ tanks left at the end of the war, and there factories were actually being overrun.
Unless the Ukrainians are going to advance to the Urals, which is that 10 fold increase to even be considered, the Russians will continue to produce Tanks and other material to the front, putting them in a better condition than Iran was in who really couldn't manufacture new tanks.
So, just on tank construction the Russians will be able to continuously feed at least hundreds and probably eventually a thousand+ in new construction when they run out of refurbishments, which is also going to be years from my understanding. And obviously restricted production will encourage more effort on recovery and refurbishment of existing hulls.
So, the null assumption is that the Russians will be able to flow at least hundreds of tanks to the front, and continue to at least supply a couple million shells.
Peter talks about the results of the latest rounds of Ukranian rocket attacks:
-Russian deep space satellite communication network keeps track of all their other satellites and helps them communicate to the ground
-Russians never had global comms stations, just had 4 in Russian Federation
-One was completely destroyed
-Ends Russian civilian space program, already on the way out due to SpaceX, expended all their old decommissioned ICBMs as launch vehicles
-Lost 1/4 of their capability to track military satellites and reduces options for non-US satellite tracking
-Russia losing ability to get telemetry for repairs, might lose their GPS/satellite communication network and ability to use precision guided weapons
-Russian deep space satellite communication network keeps track of all their other satellites and helps them communicate to the ground
-Russians never had global comms stations, just had 4 in Russian Federation
-One was completely destroyed
-Ends Russian civilian space program, already on the way out due to SpaceX, expended all their old decommissioned ICBMs as launch vehicles
-Lost 1/4 of their capability to track military satellites and reduces options for non-US satellite tracking
-Russia losing ability to get telemetry for repairs, might lose their GPS/satellite communication network and ability to use precision guided weapons
No, they are outproducing NATO in soviet munitions. Which its weird NATO is even competitive in.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
No they aren't, like I said this is a stat that references soviet armaments and pro-Russian propaganda fails to point out that nuance.
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
You made a ridiculous claim, there's no need to wager anything. Put up or shut up.
1. Hard to know a lot of stuff is being kept secret, but america maintains quite a bit of capability europe has let their capabilities dwindle. It is a problem but its a problem that's being worked on. Keep in mind that most nato countries are still in peace time conditions and what one is capable of in peace time and war time are completely different.
Your still talking about industrialized countries here so if Nato got serious that's two contients worth of materials and industry so a lot of potential but very little of that potential is currently being reached because of internal factors.
2.
NATO tank strength by country 2024 | Statista
In 2024, the United States had approximately 4,657 main battle tanks in its armed forces, the most of any NATO member state.
www.statista.com
Now thats nato's estimated tank capability in current peace time and forbes thinks that russia has around 12,000 tanks left
So Russia most likely has more tanks total then nato, but nato has much more modern tanks and once again their in a peacetime economy not a wartime one and the vast majority of russian tanks are left over stock from the cold war which is dwindling as the war in Ukraine moves on.
Over all if Russia brought everything out of the moth balls and put it into action they would outnumber Nato tank for tank but these older models some of them well over 40 years old would likely get ripped apart in the fighting.
3. Rockets and missles
America has been working on more precise missle tech and a variety of it for a really long time. The US is pretty much the champion in that kind of tech and has been for over 30 years. Russia does try to compensate for this with numbers but in this Id defiantly give nato the edge.
Over all Nato countries tend to prefer quality and Russia prefers quantity when it comes to war. The later does have a quality of its own but Russia also has a big problem with corruption which has eaten a lot of its fighting capability. If if came down to Russia vrs Nato with out nukes then Russia just loses.
And with Nukes that's a toss up because these are old systems with a 20% miss rate brand new and now their 40 years old Id bet on quite a lot of it not working any more.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
Sure, I didn't mean literally zero, and I concede that it won't be zero. But a couple hundred actual new built tanks per year is not going to cut it compared to their rate of loss. And if they drastically cut back on tank usage then that's part of what I was getting at with giving an advantage to Ukraine compared to how things have been going previously. A lot of Russian units would indeed be "without" tanks that had previously enjoyed their use, even if the Russian army itself will never be devoid of them.
What evidence and reasoning is there to support the idea that Russia is plausibly on track to produce 1000+ actual new built tanks per year, assuming that's what you meant?
To me the biggest question is how much of the remaining armored vehicle stockpiles can practically be refurbished. How much is being saved for last just by luck of the draw vs. because they are especially old and/or difficult to refurbish (and if so how does that affect production rates?) vs. because they are pretty much scrap metal?
AnimalNoodles
Well-known member
Put what up?
I was unaware there was any question about these facts.
Russian shell production is about triple that of the entire NATO Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine's Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost
Russia is producing 1200 tanks a year Russia Can Build 100 Tanks a Month, Retains Capacity to Replace Losses: Intel
What is NATO's tank production?
Russia is production 85-90 Iskander and Khinzal missiles a month MSN
What is the western version of the Iskander and Khinzhal? How many are being made?
This doesnt even include the production of Kalibrs.
Russia is in full wartime economy, Nato isn't and that is a drastic difference.
Its going to take years Russians are capable of enduring deep suffering.
Is it? I haven't really seen anything that suggests they are. They really seem to be more in Peacetime+ right now. Everything I've seen suggests Russia is at something around 10% of GDP military spending. The automotive industry in Russia is still producing something around 1 million cars for civilian consumption. Compare to America in full wartime production, civilian car production went to basically zero as everything was converted to military production. With China apparently planning to sell some 2 million cars into Russia.
There not even seeming to maximize out potential recruitment. After the crash raising of 300k to stabilize things in 2023, we haven't really seen particularly aggressive recruitment.
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
From your source: "However, the ministry did not specify the types of the newly-inducted tanks or whether they are new models."