Future War with (Red) China Hypotheticals/Theorycrafting

paulobrito

Well-known member
I was in Korea....
I can tell you how everything is.

I know how the war between the north and south would play out.

It is nit a war the north wants.
Nobody wants that war. But if that happens both nations are fucked. Granted the NK is done, but the SK is economically fucked.
If you think modern weapons can stop arty and rockets in enough quantity, you think NK is the Palestinians. In enough quantities and NK as way better ones, they do enough damage to Seoul to fuck the local economy. US defense systems? Just ask the Saudis that worked. And nope, they are not manned by Saudis, the operators are US mercenaries/supervisors.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Nobody wants that war. But if that happens both nations are fucked. Granted the NK is done, but the SK is economically fucked.
If you think modern weapons can stop arty and rockets in enough quantity, you think NK is the Palestinians. In enough quantities and NK as way better ones, they do enough damage to Seoul to fuck the local economy. US defense systems? Just ask the Saudis that worked. And nope, they are not manned by Saudis, the operators are US mercenaries/supervisors.
You have absolutely no idea about howbthay war would go.

Why would the Norks destroy the one thing they could use as a bargaining chip? Destroy Seoul they basically signed the destruction of thier country...
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
Most nations would give token diplomatic support, hoping that they don't get noticed for real and that the fallout doesn't hit them too hard when Russia, China and USA are turned into irradiated wasteland. Off course the predictions of the Fulda gap salivators never came true despite 40 years long standoff, so it's quite likely the Suwalki gap aficionados won't get their wish as well.

Vietnam,India would fight China for their own reasons
Or they would send their best wishes and wait for nuclear dust to settle before doing anything of substance.
 

The Whispering Monk

Well-known member
Osaul
We know they are thanks to the expansion of bases like Humpherys and the like.

OT: I can not imagine Humphreys at 80,000 troops, and I was there in 2000. WTH are they putting everyone?!

Also, I think its a bad idea to station such a large cluster of troops in a single bivuoac (so?). Juicy target and a PITA to move out of in an alert.

A multipolar world is much better than a unipolar one.

Depends on the poles.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
OT: I can not imagine Humphreys at 80,000 troops, and I was there in 2000. WTH are they putting everyone?!

Also, I think its a bad idea to station such a large cluster of troops in a single bivuoac (so?). Juicy target and a PITA to move out of in an alert.



Depends on the poles.
Building up like Koreans do. It is a big base with more and more being built.

It would be the mist defended US Base, and would make the retaliating 29 times worse then Pearl Harbor
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
The best thing the USA can do (avoiding war but still defeating China) is to contain them (economically AND militarily) with an alliance system.
Half correct. Military 'containment' of China is impossible without destroying, at a minimum, both countries if not the entirety of the world in a thermonuclear apocalypse. Yes, I already know whatever factoids about the prowess of our military and the crippling vulnerability of the three gorges dam Zachowon is about to post, none of that changes the fact, that in an actual fight, we're equally vulnerable on account of nuclear weapons and having all our Made In China™ infrastructure almost certainly riddled with backdoor killswitches. Fortunately, baring suicidal stupidity on the part of one or both countries' leadership, they can't use those weaknesses against us any more than we can use their weaknesses against them.

Any form of conflict with China barring 'rebuilding our domestic manufacturing infrastructure so they can't threaten us with boycotts, rebuilding our entire infrastructure with domestically manufacture equipment sans Chinese killswitches and persecuting anyone who sells our IPs/kowtows to the Chinese market for outright treason' won't actually solve the problem. 'Local allies' just mean an increased risk of a repetition of the stupidity which was alliances obligating all the colonial powers to fight each other in WW1 when none of them benefited long-term, with nuclear weapons this time, if Japan, South Korea and Taiwan want safety from Chinese invasion, they should be focusing on getting the Bomb themselves rather than using us as cannon fodder, because, I'm going to be perfectly honest here, if it was up to me, I'd sell all three out without a second thought if the alternative was nuclear war.
 

paulobrito

Well-known member
Also, the idea that the US can block China from technology is idiotic. China in the last two decades 'produced' more scientists and engineers than the US, and by a wide margin. Right now, in several areas is already ahead, in others equal and in many equal and/or surpass the US in 5/10 years tops. China has 4 times the population and an industrial capability of a dimension that the US can't do anything against it other than try to slow the advance - or go nuclear. And in that case, everybody loses. The idiotic thinking of some US politicos/military that is possible to win a nuclear war is just that - idiotic thinking.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
Half correct. Military 'containment' of China is impossible without destroying, at a minimum, both countries if not the entirety of the world in a thermonuclear apocalypse. Yes, I already know whatever factoids about the prowess of our military and the crippling vulnerability of the three gorges dam Zachowon is about to post, none of that changes the fact, that in an actual fight, we're equally vulnerable on account of nuclear weapons and having all our Made In China™ infrastructure almost certainly riddled with backdoor killswitches. Fortunately, baring suicidal stupidity on the part of one or both countries' leadership, they can't use those weaknesses against us any more than we can use their weaknesses against them.

Any form of conflict with China barring 'rebuilding our domestic manufacturing infrastructure so they can't threaten us with boycotts, rebuilding our entire infrastructure with domestically manufacture equipment sans Chinese killswitches and persecuting anyone who sells our IPs/kowtows to the Chinese market for outright treason' won't actually solve the problem. 'Local allies' just mean an increased risk of a repetition of the stupidity which was alliances obligating all the colonial powers to fight each other in WW1 when none of them benefited long-term, with nuclear weapons this time, if Japan, South Korea and Taiwan want safety from Chinese invasion, they should be focusing on getting the Bomb themselves rather than using us as cannon fodder, because, I'm going to be perfectly honest here, if it was up to me, I'd sell all three out without a second thought if the alternative was nuclear war.
Thing is, the number one priority target when you think about launching nuclear weapons, is someone else's nuclear weapons. If China launches, someone is going to get the bright idea to launch an immediate retaliatory strike at them, before China's nukes can take out their nukes. Thus, I don't think they'll prove all that useful to China in conquering the countries surrounding the South China Sea; and I further suspect that, so long as those countries band together, China doesn't really have a chance against them in a conventional conflict, even without direct American support.

Not that I'd be happy if we failed to support them. To be honest, Japan (and, to a lesser extent, Taiwan and South Korea as well) has become something of a refuge for me from the thoroughly corrupt culture of America, as well as most other western nations. If we sold them out, I'd have to give up on this country at that point.



Also, the idea that the US can block China from technology is idiotic. China in the last two decades 'produced' more scientists and engineers than the US, and by a wide margin. Right now, in several areas is already ahead, in others equal and in many equal and/or surpass the US in 5/10 years tops. China has 4 times the population and an industrial capability of a dimension that the US can't do anything against it other than try to slow the advance - or go nuclear. And in that case, everybody loses. The idiotic thinking of some US politicos/military that is possible to win a nuclear war is just that - idiotic thinking.
China lies constantly to make itself seem dramatically more successful than it actually is; they do that because they care more about their reputation than anything else. I'm fairly certain that none of the things you just said about them have any basis in reality; or if they do, then they they're woefully misrepresented. Something along the lines of "oh sure, we have more scientists and engineers in China than the US does; but most of them are idiots by comparison" or "we have far more industrial capability; but only in theory and over the short term. Long term; we're too reliant on shoddily built infrastructure, and imported resources to last for more than a few years tops in a prolonged conflict."
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
Thing is, the number one priority target when you think about launching nuclear weapons, is someone else's nuclear weapons.
Nuclear missile carrying submarines. Their locations are unknown, they can launch a second strike after all land-based missile silos have been blown to smithereens and both sides have them. Nuclear war cannot be won.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
Did you miss the part where I clarified that? The "or if they do, then they're woefully misrepresented" part? That implies at least some basis in reality; because in order to misrepresent the facts, you need some first. If it's absolute certainty you're looking for, I'm absolutely certain that China does not have the insurmountable industrial and technological superiority over the United States you were asserting that they do.



Nuclear missile carrying submarines. Their locations are unknown, they can launch a second strike after all land-based missile silos have been blown to smithereens and both sides have them. Nuclear war cannot be won.
Not every country has them; and even those who do would rather use their nukes than lose them. That said, you're right in that nuclear war cannot be won; I'm just saying any that attempt to use nukes, by anyone, will inevitably lead to global nuclear war.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Did you miss the part where I clarified that? The "or if they do, then they're woefully misrepresented" part? That implies at least some basis in reality; because in order to misrepresent the facts, you need some first. If it's absolute certainty you're looking for, I'm absolutely certain that China does not have the insurmountable industrial and technological superiority over the United States you were asserting that they do.




Not every country has them; and even those who do would rather use their nukes than lose them. That said, you're right in that nuclear war cannot be won; I'm just saying any that attempt to use nukes, by anyone, will inevitably lead to global nuclear war.
You are very right about China lying about what they have.
It is the best way for them to try and fear their enemiesto be forced to surrender early...
 

ATP

Well-known member
I once read book Moonson: the indian ocean and the future of american power by Robert Kaplan from 2010.He wrote about China making bases in Pakistan,Ceylon and Birma,Malaya becoming China vassal - and declared ,that USA should share power with China and India over sea routes there,becouse nobody need war there and they all could do bussiness together.

Very logical,sadly has little to do with reality.Well,our world not always is logical.
 

DarthOne

☦️
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Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Oh please, Biden will roll over like the trained dog and the military's pathetic leadership will do the same. Assuming this isn't all some play-acting theater by China to give their puppet some legitimacy back by 'backing down' thanks to an 'American show of strength'.
Fuck you and no we won't.
Taiwan is someplace the establishment can't lose for our friendships with Asian partners kinda depend on it
 

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